Post by Robert Waller on Sept 12, 2023 18:29:13 GMT
Bacon and eggs, fish and chips, rhythm and blues, Morecambe and Wise, Batman and Robin … the paired name of this key marginal constituency has figured in political analysis frequently, as it has changed hands three times since 2005: in its 2008 byelection, and in the last two general elections. Known as the political base for over two decades of the formidable Gwyneth Dunwoody, long term independently minded chair of the Transport Select Committee, it was gained by the Conservative Edward Timpson following her death, but he lost it to Labour’s Laura Smith in 2017 before she in turn was ousted by Kieran Mullan in 2019. Yet for all that Crewe and Nantwich is a well known name now, it has only existed since 1983 – before then the two eponymous towns lay at the heart of their own divisions, which had very different political traditions. What is more, the two main elements of the seat have not sat harmoniously together – it is more Jekyll and Hyde, perhaps more Tom and Jerry than Ben and Jerry.
The larger of these two South East Cheshire towns is Crewe, which has always been associated with the grit and grime of the railway industry, responsible for its creation as a 19th century boom town. One of the most important junctions in the national rail network, Crewe also hosted a massive manufacture, repair and service works that was reputed to employ 20,000 at its peak, during the Second World War. More glamorously, the Rolls Royce factory responsible for luxury cars bearing the Spirit of Ecstasy as well as the Bentley badge have been crafted here, rather than in the better known Derby works where the aircraft engines were made. Not surprisingly, Crewe had a Labour voting tradition, first electing a Labour MP in 1922 and only deviating to the Conservatives thereafter in 1924 and 1931. Even in years of Tory high water like 1959, 1970 and 1979 they trailed by around 4,000. In most local election years all the Crewe wards were safely Labour.
Nantwich is a very different kettle of fish. Although included in the Crewe seat up to 1955, it was given a constituency with its own name from that year up to the merger in 1983. Nantwich is and always has been an affluent and picturesque market town, with a centre noted for half-timbered buildings such as Churche’s Mansion and antique shops, attractively set on the River Weaver, strongly owner occupied and a desirable base for commuting, with little of the ex-industrial quality of other ex-salt, -wich suffixed. Cheshire towns like Northwich and Middlewich. Somehow the contrast with Crewe is encapsulated in sport. Crewe Alexandra FC has often punched above its weight considering the population of the town, having frequently competed in their substantial Gresty Road stadium at the second tier in what is now called the Championship, although they are currently a couple of steps below that. Nantwich on the other hand excels at cricket, and the town cricket club again reached the final of the National Club Championship at Lords in September 2022, as they had in 2019. They lost (to Bexley CC) by one run (and they got to the quarter finals in 2023 too).
Nantwich has also usually backed the Conservative party. When a constituency was named after it between 1955 and 1983, the Tories won every time. More up to date, in the elections to the unitary Cheshire East council, in May 2019, Labour polled just over 20% in each of the two Nantwich based wards, though Independents took the two spots available in North & West, while the Conservatives took both in South & Stapeley. In these same elections Labour won every one of the ten council places available within the six Crewe wards, with convincing shares: 74% in St Barnabas, 61% in Central, 59% (top candidate) in West, 58% in South, 52% in East and the lowest in North – 49%, but it might be noted that there the second spot was taken by a For Britain candidate, with a rather remarkable 31%, as the Tory trailed in third with 21%. In the most recent available census figures, St Barnabas had over a third social housing, Central was divided almost evenly between all three main forms of tenure, and South had nearly a third private rented; not unconnected, Central and South respectively ranked 1 and 2 among all the wards in the North West of England region for residents born in EU accession states 2001-2011, that is, Central/Eastern Europe. By contrast the Nantwich wards ranked 491st and 586th in that regard.
However, in the most recent Cheshire East elections in May 2023, the Crewe v Nantwich dichotomy became somewhat less clear. Labour held five of the wards in Crewe, but the Conservatives actually gained St Barnabas. On the other hand Labour (narrowly) gained both seats in Nantwich South & Stapeley and one of the two in Nantwich North & West, their sole candidate finishing well ahead at the top of the poll and one Independent surviving.
It should be remembered that despite the name of the seat there are substantial sections which are not in either Crewe or Nantwich. Firstly, there are the various mainly built up areas that more or less lie between the two main towns: Leighton, Willaston, Wistaston and Shavington. This is a significant element in the constituency. The Crewe town wards add up to around 34,000 voters and those based on Nantwich to 14,500, but the four Cheshire East wards in this section account for over 20,000 electors. These are predominantly middle class areas and overwhelmingly owner occupied (all between 87% and 90% in 2011), but not as up-market as parts of Nantwich. In May 2023 Labour gained Shavington and one of the two spots in Wistaston from the Conservatives, though still well behind in Willaston & Rope. Labour also took Leighton from an Independent. Secondly there are currently the rural wards of Haslington in the east of the seat and Wybunbury in the south, each consisting of several villages and a wide swathe of douce Cheshire countryside. Wybunbury in particular is a Conservative stronghold. They took 70.5% of the vote in a three way contest in May 2023, easily their highest share in the seat, and the highest (of anybody’s) apart from the famed Prestbury ward in Macclesfield constituency, where the Conservative candidate managed 74.4% (against an Independent).
The changes recommended by the Boundary Commission for England are not major. The decision, though, is to remove the Wybunbury ward and place it in the new Chester South & Eddisbury seat. Despite a number of objections to this, attempting to replace Wybunbury with Leighton as the peripheral ward to be removed, the revised report in November 2022 and final decision in June 2023 confirmed the initial proposals. This would take away only 4,488 voters but nearly half of the land area, leaving Crewe and Nantwich as looking much more compact on the map, no longer reaching Cheshire’s borders with Staffordshire and Shropshire. The notional Conservative majority might also be reduced by getting on for two thousand, and that may have some significance. Even though it has appeared to be a key marginal in recent elections, Kieran Mullan did win by over 8,500 in 2019, and Laura Smith had only had a lead of 48 votes in 2017 (there had actually been seven smaller than this in numerical terms). The estimated Leave vote of 60% in 2016 probably strongly influenced the Tory surge in 2019, and for once Crewe itself must have provided many Tory votes.
Nevertheless, Labour probably must win this seat to win the next general election as a whole. Overall, the constituency demographic figures are on many indicators close to the national average. Even on existing boundaries it is the national party's 94th target seat, and if they took all those they would be the largest party but not have an overall majority – which is an indicator of the size of the task facing the party led by Angela Rayner and Keir Starmer. Whether we think of them as Bonnie and Clyde, Tarzan and Jane, or even Minnie and Mickey, it will be a challenging task, but one with what looks at the moment like a real chance of success, both in Crewe and Nantwich and the country as a whole. The MP Kieran Mullan may agree Labour has a very decent chance, as he applied for the Conservative nomination in the Chester South & Eddisbury constituency. Overall the figures for the May 2023 local results under the new Crewe & Nantwich boundaries suggest Labour were ahead of the Tories by 46% to 33% then. A substantial recovery will be needed to avoid yet another change of hand in 2024.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.9% 300/575
Owner occupied 66.2% 283/575
Private rented 20.2% 197/575
Social rented 13.6% 356/575
White 92.9% 242/575
Black 0.9% 338/575
Asian 3.0% 340/575
Managerial & professional 30.0% 352/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3% 74/575
Degree level 29.3% 366/575
No qualifications 19.3% 213/575
Students 4.8% 439/575
General Election 2019: Crewe and Nantwich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kieran Mullan 28,704 53.1 +6.1
Labour Laura Smith 20,196 37.4 −9.7
Liberal Democrats Matthew Theobald 2,618 4.8 +2.4
Brexit Party Matt Wood 1,390 2.6 New
Green Te Ata Browne 975 1.8 New
Libertarian Andrew Kinsman 149 0.3 New
C Majority 8,508 15.7
2019 electorate 80,321
Turnout 54,032 67.3 −2.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 7.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Crewe and Nantwich will consist of
94.4% of Crewe and Nantwich
0.7% of Eddisbury
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_232_Crewe%20and%20Nantwich_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The larger of these two South East Cheshire towns is Crewe, which has always been associated with the grit and grime of the railway industry, responsible for its creation as a 19th century boom town. One of the most important junctions in the national rail network, Crewe also hosted a massive manufacture, repair and service works that was reputed to employ 20,000 at its peak, during the Second World War. More glamorously, the Rolls Royce factory responsible for luxury cars bearing the Spirit of Ecstasy as well as the Bentley badge have been crafted here, rather than in the better known Derby works where the aircraft engines were made. Not surprisingly, Crewe had a Labour voting tradition, first electing a Labour MP in 1922 and only deviating to the Conservatives thereafter in 1924 and 1931. Even in years of Tory high water like 1959, 1970 and 1979 they trailed by around 4,000. In most local election years all the Crewe wards were safely Labour.
Nantwich is a very different kettle of fish. Although included in the Crewe seat up to 1955, it was given a constituency with its own name from that year up to the merger in 1983. Nantwich is and always has been an affluent and picturesque market town, with a centre noted for half-timbered buildings such as Churche’s Mansion and antique shops, attractively set on the River Weaver, strongly owner occupied and a desirable base for commuting, with little of the ex-industrial quality of other ex-salt, -wich suffixed. Cheshire towns like Northwich and Middlewich. Somehow the contrast with Crewe is encapsulated in sport. Crewe Alexandra FC has often punched above its weight considering the population of the town, having frequently competed in their substantial Gresty Road stadium at the second tier in what is now called the Championship, although they are currently a couple of steps below that. Nantwich on the other hand excels at cricket, and the town cricket club again reached the final of the National Club Championship at Lords in September 2022, as they had in 2019. They lost (to Bexley CC) by one run (and they got to the quarter finals in 2023 too).
Nantwich has also usually backed the Conservative party. When a constituency was named after it between 1955 and 1983, the Tories won every time. More up to date, in the elections to the unitary Cheshire East council, in May 2019, Labour polled just over 20% in each of the two Nantwich based wards, though Independents took the two spots available in North & West, while the Conservatives took both in South & Stapeley. In these same elections Labour won every one of the ten council places available within the six Crewe wards, with convincing shares: 74% in St Barnabas, 61% in Central, 59% (top candidate) in West, 58% in South, 52% in East and the lowest in North – 49%, but it might be noted that there the second spot was taken by a For Britain candidate, with a rather remarkable 31%, as the Tory trailed in third with 21%. In the most recent available census figures, St Barnabas had over a third social housing, Central was divided almost evenly between all three main forms of tenure, and South had nearly a third private rented; not unconnected, Central and South respectively ranked 1 and 2 among all the wards in the North West of England region for residents born in EU accession states 2001-2011, that is, Central/Eastern Europe. By contrast the Nantwich wards ranked 491st and 586th in that regard.
However, in the most recent Cheshire East elections in May 2023, the Crewe v Nantwich dichotomy became somewhat less clear. Labour held five of the wards in Crewe, but the Conservatives actually gained St Barnabas. On the other hand Labour (narrowly) gained both seats in Nantwich South & Stapeley and one of the two in Nantwich North & West, their sole candidate finishing well ahead at the top of the poll and one Independent surviving.
It should be remembered that despite the name of the seat there are substantial sections which are not in either Crewe or Nantwich. Firstly, there are the various mainly built up areas that more or less lie between the two main towns: Leighton, Willaston, Wistaston and Shavington. This is a significant element in the constituency. The Crewe town wards add up to around 34,000 voters and those based on Nantwich to 14,500, but the four Cheshire East wards in this section account for over 20,000 electors. These are predominantly middle class areas and overwhelmingly owner occupied (all between 87% and 90% in 2011), but not as up-market as parts of Nantwich. In May 2023 Labour gained Shavington and one of the two spots in Wistaston from the Conservatives, though still well behind in Willaston & Rope. Labour also took Leighton from an Independent. Secondly there are currently the rural wards of Haslington in the east of the seat and Wybunbury in the south, each consisting of several villages and a wide swathe of douce Cheshire countryside. Wybunbury in particular is a Conservative stronghold. They took 70.5% of the vote in a three way contest in May 2023, easily their highest share in the seat, and the highest (of anybody’s) apart from the famed Prestbury ward in Macclesfield constituency, where the Conservative candidate managed 74.4% (against an Independent).
The changes recommended by the Boundary Commission for England are not major. The decision, though, is to remove the Wybunbury ward and place it in the new Chester South & Eddisbury seat. Despite a number of objections to this, attempting to replace Wybunbury with Leighton as the peripheral ward to be removed, the revised report in November 2022 and final decision in June 2023 confirmed the initial proposals. This would take away only 4,488 voters but nearly half of the land area, leaving Crewe and Nantwich as looking much more compact on the map, no longer reaching Cheshire’s borders with Staffordshire and Shropshire. The notional Conservative majority might also be reduced by getting on for two thousand, and that may have some significance. Even though it has appeared to be a key marginal in recent elections, Kieran Mullan did win by over 8,500 in 2019, and Laura Smith had only had a lead of 48 votes in 2017 (there had actually been seven smaller than this in numerical terms). The estimated Leave vote of 60% in 2016 probably strongly influenced the Tory surge in 2019, and for once Crewe itself must have provided many Tory votes.
Nevertheless, Labour probably must win this seat to win the next general election as a whole. Overall, the constituency demographic figures are on many indicators close to the national average. Even on existing boundaries it is the national party's 94th target seat, and if they took all those they would be the largest party but not have an overall majority – which is an indicator of the size of the task facing the party led by Angela Rayner and Keir Starmer. Whether we think of them as Bonnie and Clyde, Tarzan and Jane, or even Minnie and Mickey, it will be a challenging task, but one with what looks at the moment like a real chance of success, both in Crewe and Nantwich and the country as a whole. The MP Kieran Mullan may agree Labour has a very decent chance, as he applied for the Conservative nomination in the Chester South & Eddisbury constituency. Overall the figures for the May 2023 local results under the new Crewe & Nantwich boundaries suggest Labour were ahead of the Tories by 46% to 33% then. A substantial recovery will be needed to avoid yet another change of hand in 2024.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.9% 300/575
Owner occupied 66.2% 283/575
Private rented 20.2% 197/575
Social rented 13.6% 356/575
White 92.9% 242/575
Black 0.9% 338/575
Asian 3.0% 340/575
Managerial & professional 30.0% 352/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3% 74/575
Degree level 29.3% 366/575
No qualifications 19.3% 213/575
Students 4.8% 439/575
General Election 2019: Crewe and Nantwich
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kieran Mullan 28,704 53.1 +6.1
Labour Laura Smith 20,196 37.4 −9.7
Liberal Democrats Matthew Theobald 2,618 4.8 +2.4
Brexit Party Matt Wood 1,390 2.6 New
Green Te Ata Browne 975 1.8 New
Libertarian Andrew Kinsman 149 0.3 New
C Majority 8,508 15.7
2019 electorate 80,321
Turnout 54,032 67.3 −2.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 7.9 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Crewe and Nantwich will consist of
94.4% of Crewe and Nantwich
0.7% of Eddisbury
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_232_Crewe%20and%20Nantwich_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 25511 | 50.8% |
| Lab | 19695 | 39.2% |
| LD | 2573 | 5.1% |
| Brexit | 1317 | 2.6% |
| Green | 951 | 1.9% |
| Oth | 149 | 0.3% |
| Con Majority | 5816 | 11.6% |