Post by Robert Waller on Sept 11, 2023 17:41:38 GMT
The name of Runnymede, a rather boggy meadow by the Thames in Surrey, has become associated with notions of democracy due to its probable location of King John’s grudging sealing of Magna Carta in 1215 – though this might come as a surprise to the rebellious English baronage intent at the time on recovering and enforcing their feudal privileges. In particular it has become beloved of Americans celebrating the progress of ‘freedom under the law’, and among the memorials is one to the late President Kennedy. That said, this constituency, it major part named for the local authority of Runnymede, does not particularly stand out either for the practice of democracy or freedom. For example, recent turnout levels are only fractionally higher than average in the United Kingdom; and the MP most associated with this seat suffered the forceable ending of his political career at the hands of party discipline. However, we do indeed have plenty of elections here to study.
The seat, covering the whole of the borough of Runnymede and three wards of Elmbridge, was created in 1997 and represented from that date until 2019 by Philip Hammond, who held the posts of Foreign Secretary (2014-16) and Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2016 to 2019 – a year of chaos in government in which he played a leading role in attempting to stymie Brexit (at least “without a deal”). The utter defeat of his faction within the Conservative party resulted in his loss of the whip and thus official candidature in the 2019 general election. Unlike some of his colleagues he neither defected to another party nor stood as an independent, and the result in December (unlike that in the rest of Elmbridge, in Dominic Raab’s seat) was a convincing 18,000 majority for the Borisite Tories in the shape of Ben Spencer. The Conservative share did drop by 6% and that of the Liberal Democrats rose by 10%, but even this did not elevate the latter above third place. The reason for this is clear. This constituency is estimated to have voted almost exactly 50-50 in the 2016 referendum, unlike clearly pro-Remain seats in Surrey such as Guildford and the aforementioned Esher & Walton.
In turn this political cast of mind is connected with the demographic characteristics of Runnymede and Weybridge. Of course as a Surrey suburban division it is well above average in affluence, owner occupation, income, professional and managerial occupations, and even in terminal educational qualifications. However it is not as ‘highly educated’ as those seats were the Liberal Democrats really surged in 2019 – both Guildford and Esher/Walton had over 45% or 50% with degrees in the 2021 census, for example, whether here it was barely 40%. Nor is this seat uniformly ‘posh’, even though it does include some very wealthy pockets indeed, as described below. Take the largest communities in Runnymede, for example. The single county division in Chertsey elected Labour county councillors continually in the six elections from 1985 to 2005, reaching a pinnacle of a 77% share. Addlestone has been more solidly Conservative but is even more down-market, for example having just over30% with degrees in its various census MSOAs. Egham actually saw a Labour county council gain in the deferred elections of May 2021 – one of only two victories in the whole of Surrey, the other being Stanwell in Spelthorne.
Sure, the Weybridge section is known for harbouring one of the most exclusive (and resolutely private) estates in England at St George’s Hill (ironically the site of the proto-communist Diggers in the mid 17th century), and for being the birthplace of that typical ‘English rose’, Julie Andrews; but there are even small pockets of social housing too, such as the Locke King estate near Brooklands (Hugh Locke King was the founder of that historic motor race track). Weybridge Riverside ward was retained by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2023 Elmbridge council elections. Elsewhere in May 2023 the Conservatives retained Addlestone South, Chertsey Riverside (by 44 votes over Labour), Chertsey St Ann’s and Woodham & Rowtown. However Labour followed up their 2021 county gain in Egham by retaining Egham Hythe at borough level, the Liberal Democrats held Longcross (site of a major new housing development) and gained New Haw, the Greens gained Addlestone North, and localists won the other wards - Egham Town, Ottershaw, and Thorpe (as in the theme park).
Some disparity, but overall Runnymede and Weybridge has been a very Conservative seat. As suggested above, the slightly lower educational and social statistics would have helped keep the lead massive in 2019. There are significant boundary changes here. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England in June 2021 proposed that a cross county boundary seat be created, which would take the Egham area of Surrey and place it in a Windsor division predominantly based in Berkshire. As the Runnymede meadows would have been included, that name would disappear from constituency nomenclature. The remainder of the seat would largely survive but under the name of Weybridge and Chertsey, which would also annex the Cobham and Downside ward from Dominic Raab’s constituency; why ‘Weybridge’ was promoted to lead the title is unclear, and ‘Chertsey’ though surfacing after an absence of a quarter of a century would now take second billing, unlike the former Chertsey and Walton.
However in the Commission’s final recommendations published in June 2023, after the inquiry process, although this seat is still the one that loses territory to Berkshire, the details have changed. Egham is now to be retained, and instead three wards are to be moved to Windsor. These are Englefield Green’s two, East and West, and Virginia Water. Each of these has a distinct character. Englefield Green East does have some mainly standard-issue Surrey suburbia grouped around Middle Hill and Harvest Road north of the A30, but it also includes the campus of Royal Holloway university centred on its Founder’s Building, spectacular or Victorian monstrosity according to taste. This raised the proportion of full time students in the Runnymede & Weybridge constituency to around 13% according to the 2021 census, but with the ward’s removal that almost halves (and incidentally reduces the ethnic minority (Asian) percentage too as around 25% of those on the Census Output Areas that cover the Royal Holloway campus were in that category.)
Englefield Green West does include the eponymous green, with its cricket ground and rustic looking pub with a rustic sounding name, the Barley Mow. The very minor fact that this is the only cricket ground of the near thousand I have visited where I found a £10 note on the ground while walking the boundary should not be taken as an indication of the affluence of the area, as the West ward also includes an estate of ex-council housing which raises the social rented figure to over 60% in several OAs. Indeed Englefield Green West ward saw a Labour gain from the Tories in the May 2023 Runnymede borough council elections (East was also a Conservative loss but to an Independent.) The third departing ward, Virginia Water, is different again, including some of the most expensive and exclusive housing in the whole of the UK, not only in Virginia Water itself, named after a large lake surrounded by mock Roman follies, but in the Wentworth estate clustered around the golf course of that name, a rival home for celebrities to, say, St George’s Hill. The Tories could only hold Virginia Water ward narrowly from the Liberal Democrats in May 2023.
These departing areas of strength and (increasing weakness) for the incumbent party in the Runnymede & Weybridge division will be counterbalanced by the arrival, from Esher & Walton and Elmbridge borough, of Oatlands Park (including the very upmarket if allegedly somewhat nouveau riche Burwood Park gated estate) and Cobham & Downside wards. The former is a Tory stronghold, one of only two wards they held in the most recent Elmbridge elections in 2023, but the latter, despite also having pockets of great wealth and privilege, has recently been gained and held by the LD as part of their highly energetic, and so far effective, build up to a very serious attempt on Dominic Raab’s current seat. Overall Pete Whitehead’s notional calculations suggest the impact of the boundary changes will be almost neutral. Finally, the revised and final proposal (2022-23) of the Boundary Commission have restored the current seat name and consigned Chertsey back to the oblivion in which it has lurked since 1997.
Overall, Adam Gray’s additions suggested that the Conservatives were still ahead in the May 2023 council elections here, unlike some other Surrey constituencies, but with only a 38% share (old boundaries) and 40% (new). With the divided opposition, including Independent and Residents candidates in the municipal contests, it will not been one of their major worries in the county, nor one of the Liberal Democrats’ top targets. But as elsewhere in Surrey, Runnymede & Weybridge can no longer be considered a stronghold where the Conservative votes are weighed, where they do not need to fight to make their case. Ben Spencer should be able to extend his tenure in the Commons, though whether he will achieve the high offices or even length of tenure of his predecessor is as yet unclear. However, all this is surely fitting with the ideals of accountability that ‘Runnymede’ has come to signify.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.3% 325/575
Owner occupied 69.1% 227/575
Private rented 19.0% 197/575
Social rented 11.9% 447/575
White 85.4% 357/575
Black 1.6% 263/575
Asian 7.5% 211/575
Managerial & professional 42.8% 71/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.9% 510/575
Degree level 40.9% 100/575
No qualifications 14.1% 462/575
Students 7.2% 182/650
General Election 2019: Runnymede and Weybridge
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Spencer 29,262 54.9 -6.0
Labour Robert King 10,992 20.6 -5.3
Liberal Democrats Rob O'Carroll 9,236 17.3 +10.0
Green Benjamin Smith 1,876 3.5 +0.9
Independent Stewart Mackay 777 1.5
Independent Lorna Rowland 670 1.3
UKIP Nicholas Wood 476 0.9 -2.4
C Majority 18,270 34.3 -0.7
2019 electorate 77,196
Turnout 53,289 69.0 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swings
0.4 C to Lab
8.0 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Runnymede and Weybridge will consist of
78.9% of Runnymede and Weybridge
16.2% of Esher & Walton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_356_Runnymede%20and%20Weybridge_Landscape.pdf
Notional 2019 general election (Rallings & Thrasher)
The seat, covering the whole of the borough of Runnymede and three wards of Elmbridge, was created in 1997 and represented from that date until 2019 by Philip Hammond, who held the posts of Foreign Secretary (2014-16) and Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2016 to 2019 – a year of chaos in government in which he played a leading role in attempting to stymie Brexit (at least “without a deal”). The utter defeat of his faction within the Conservative party resulted in his loss of the whip and thus official candidature in the 2019 general election. Unlike some of his colleagues he neither defected to another party nor stood as an independent, and the result in December (unlike that in the rest of Elmbridge, in Dominic Raab’s seat) was a convincing 18,000 majority for the Borisite Tories in the shape of Ben Spencer. The Conservative share did drop by 6% and that of the Liberal Democrats rose by 10%, but even this did not elevate the latter above third place. The reason for this is clear. This constituency is estimated to have voted almost exactly 50-50 in the 2016 referendum, unlike clearly pro-Remain seats in Surrey such as Guildford and the aforementioned Esher & Walton.
In turn this political cast of mind is connected with the demographic characteristics of Runnymede and Weybridge. Of course as a Surrey suburban division it is well above average in affluence, owner occupation, income, professional and managerial occupations, and even in terminal educational qualifications. However it is not as ‘highly educated’ as those seats were the Liberal Democrats really surged in 2019 – both Guildford and Esher/Walton had over 45% or 50% with degrees in the 2021 census, for example, whether here it was barely 40%. Nor is this seat uniformly ‘posh’, even though it does include some very wealthy pockets indeed, as described below. Take the largest communities in Runnymede, for example. The single county division in Chertsey elected Labour county councillors continually in the six elections from 1985 to 2005, reaching a pinnacle of a 77% share. Addlestone has been more solidly Conservative but is even more down-market, for example having just over30% with degrees in its various census MSOAs. Egham actually saw a Labour county council gain in the deferred elections of May 2021 – one of only two victories in the whole of Surrey, the other being Stanwell in Spelthorne.
Sure, the Weybridge section is known for harbouring one of the most exclusive (and resolutely private) estates in England at St George’s Hill (ironically the site of the proto-communist Diggers in the mid 17th century), and for being the birthplace of that typical ‘English rose’, Julie Andrews; but there are even small pockets of social housing too, such as the Locke King estate near Brooklands (Hugh Locke King was the founder of that historic motor race track). Weybridge Riverside ward was retained by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2023 Elmbridge council elections. Elsewhere in May 2023 the Conservatives retained Addlestone South, Chertsey Riverside (by 44 votes over Labour), Chertsey St Ann’s and Woodham & Rowtown. However Labour followed up their 2021 county gain in Egham by retaining Egham Hythe at borough level, the Liberal Democrats held Longcross (site of a major new housing development) and gained New Haw, the Greens gained Addlestone North, and localists won the other wards - Egham Town, Ottershaw, and Thorpe (as in the theme park).
Some disparity, but overall Runnymede and Weybridge has been a very Conservative seat. As suggested above, the slightly lower educational and social statistics would have helped keep the lead massive in 2019. There are significant boundary changes here. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England in June 2021 proposed that a cross county boundary seat be created, which would take the Egham area of Surrey and place it in a Windsor division predominantly based in Berkshire. As the Runnymede meadows would have been included, that name would disappear from constituency nomenclature. The remainder of the seat would largely survive but under the name of Weybridge and Chertsey, which would also annex the Cobham and Downside ward from Dominic Raab’s constituency; why ‘Weybridge’ was promoted to lead the title is unclear, and ‘Chertsey’ though surfacing after an absence of a quarter of a century would now take second billing, unlike the former Chertsey and Walton.
However in the Commission’s final recommendations published in June 2023, after the inquiry process, although this seat is still the one that loses territory to Berkshire, the details have changed. Egham is now to be retained, and instead three wards are to be moved to Windsor. These are Englefield Green’s two, East and West, and Virginia Water. Each of these has a distinct character. Englefield Green East does have some mainly standard-issue Surrey suburbia grouped around Middle Hill and Harvest Road north of the A30, but it also includes the campus of Royal Holloway university centred on its Founder’s Building, spectacular or Victorian monstrosity according to taste. This raised the proportion of full time students in the Runnymede & Weybridge constituency to around 13% according to the 2021 census, but with the ward’s removal that almost halves (and incidentally reduces the ethnic minority (Asian) percentage too as around 25% of those on the Census Output Areas that cover the Royal Holloway campus were in that category.)
Englefield Green West does include the eponymous green, with its cricket ground and rustic looking pub with a rustic sounding name, the Barley Mow. The very minor fact that this is the only cricket ground of the near thousand I have visited where I found a £10 note on the ground while walking the boundary should not be taken as an indication of the affluence of the area, as the West ward also includes an estate of ex-council housing which raises the social rented figure to over 60% in several OAs. Indeed Englefield Green West ward saw a Labour gain from the Tories in the May 2023 Runnymede borough council elections (East was also a Conservative loss but to an Independent.) The third departing ward, Virginia Water, is different again, including some of the most expensive and exclusive housing in the whole of the UK, not only in Virginia Water itself, named after a large lake surrounded by mock Roman follies, but in the Wentworth estate clustered around the golf course of that name, a rival home for celebrities to, say, St George’s Hill. The Tories could only hold Virginia Water ward narrowly from the Liberal Democrats in May 2023.
These departing areas of strength and (increasing weakness) for the incumbent party in the Runnymede & Weybridge division will be counterbalanced by the arrival, from Esher & Walton and Elmbridge borough, of Oatlands Park (including the very upmarket if allegedly somewhat nouveau riche Burwood Park gated estate) and Cobham & Downside wards. The former is a Tory stronghold, one of only two wards they held in the most recent Elmbridge elections in 2023, but the latter, despite also having pockets of great wealth and privilege, has recently been gained and held by the LD as part of their highly energetic, and so far effective, build up to a very serious attempt on Dominic Raab’s current seat. Overall Pete Whitehead’s notional calculations suggest the impact of the boundary changes will be almost neutral. Finally, the revised and final proposal (2022-23) of the Boundary Commission have restored the current seat name and consigned Chertsey back to the oblivion in which it has lurked since 1997.
Overall, Adam Gray’s additions suggested that the Conservatives were still ahead in the May 2023 council elections here, unlike some other Surrey constituencies, but with only a 38% share (old boundaries) and 40% (new). With the divided opposition, including Independent and Residents candidates in the municipal contests, it will not been one of their major worries in the county, nor one of the Liberal Democrats’ top targets. But as elsewhere in Surrey, Runnymede & Weybridge can no longer be considered a stronghold where the Conservative votes are weighed, where they do not need to fight to make their case. Ben Spencer should be able to extend his tenure in the Commons, though whether he will achieve the high offices or even length of tenure of his predecessor is as yet unclear. However, all this is surely fitting with the ideals of accountability that ‘Runnymede’ has come to signify.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.3% 325/575
Owner occupied 69.1% 227/575
Private rented 19.0% 197/575
Social rented 11.9% 447/575
White 85.4% 357/575
Black 1.6% 263/575
Asian 7.5% 211/575
Managerial & professional 42.8% 71/575
Routine & Semi-routine 15.9% 510/575
Degree level 40.9% 100/575
No qualifications 14.1% 462/575
Students 7.2% 182/650
General Election 2019: Runnymede and Weybridge
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Spencer 29,262 54.9 -6.0
Labour Robert King 10,992 20.6 -5.3
Liberal Democrats Rob O'Carroll 9,236 17.3 +10.0
Green Benjamin Smith 1,876 3.5 +0.9
Independent Stewart Mackay 777 1.5
Independent Lorna Rowland 670 1.3
UKIP Nicholas Wood 476 0.9 -2.4
C Majority 18,270 34.3 -0.7
2019 electorate 77,196
Turnout 53,289 69.0 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swings
0.4 C to Lab
8.0 C to LD
Boundary Changes
Runnymede and Weybridge will consist of
78.9% of Runnymede and Weybridge
16.2% of Esher & Walton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_356_Runnymede%20and%20Weybridge_Landscape.pdf
Notional 2019 general election (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 28028 | 53.2% |
| LD | 11956 | 22.7% |
| Lab | 9347 | 17.8% |
| Grn | 1415 | 2.7% |
| Oths | 1923 | 3.7% |
| Majority | 16072 | 30.5% |
