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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 15, 2024 19:14:21 GMT
Sometimes you can over-account for local factors. Shard End was 52.7% Labour with the Conservatives at 37.1% in 2017 according to the released ward breakdowns; according to Ben Walker's ward results, its successors voted over 70% Labour in 2019. His also give a Conservative majority of 6% in Coseley East when the released ward breakdowns have it at 35%. To be fair, I don't think any local election based method is going to be anywhere near the actual result in Coseley East. bjornhattan, what do you have there? In 2017: Lab 2,510 (46.7%) Con 2,411 (44.9%) UKIP 277 (5.2%) LD 98 (1.8%) Grn 74 (1.4%) In 2019: Con 2,859 (53.9%) Lab 1,705 (32.2%) Brexit 433 (8.2%) LD 208 (3.9%) Grn 97 (1.8%) So my majority was closer to reality, but still didn't quite capture the true scale of the Conservative landslide there. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 15, 2024 19:20:53 GMT
My notional results were very similar in both cases which is curious as mine is based on local elections, the same method as Ben Walker used. I wonder if he didn't take account of the UKIP vote in local elections
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Post by bjornhattan on Jan 15, 2024 19:23:10 GMT
As always, it's worth stressing that my model is unable to pick up anomalous sources of local strength which a more traditional notional calculation based on local elections would detect. However, I did cross-check all figures with the Ben Walker model (number 2 above) and in general errors were small, indicating reasonable levels of agreement with a more conventional approach. Using Prediction Competition scoring rules (adding up the absolute difference between my estimates and the Walker notionals), the median discrepancy was 1.74% and in nine tenths of seats our figures differed by less than 6%. In general my model tends to overestimate differences within seats, so the biggest differences were in seats like Croydon West (which essentially combines the strongest areas for Labour in three existing seats) or Ossett and Denby Dale (similarly strongly Conservative areas in three existing seats). On the other hand I have looked at a few cases where I think Ben's model may underestimate differences within seats. One, which due to limited boundary changes, isn't very important, is Sheffield South East. Here Electoral Calculus thinks that the Tories carried Beighton and Mosborough, whereas Ben's model has Labour carrying all five wards. Of course we don't know the truth, but my suspicion would be that Labour carried Darnall by so much that given the size of the majority in the constituency as a whole it's very unlikely that they carried all the other wards, and Beighton and Mosborough would be the two most likely to have gone Tory. Beighton and Mosborough are of course two of many wards around the country which have a strong Lib Dem vote locally which doesn't carry over to General Elections. On Cheltenham: I'm sure I remember seeing a comment somewhere that the Lib Dems had done less well than usual in the more working class parts of the town, which wouldn't be surprising given the general context of the election. I can't remember whether Springbank was specifically mentioned, but it's at least plausible that the strong Lib Dem vote there carried across less well to the General Election than it usually does (though perhaps not to the extent that your model thinks). More generally, the existence of places like Beighton and Mosborough and Cleckheaton and Darton East and Knottingley suggests that even in constituencies where the Lib Dems do quite well nationally the patterns in local elections may not tell us so much. (E.g., on the other side of Sheffield, how well do they do in Stannington in General Elections compared with the other four Hallam wards?) I have Beighton and Mosborough as fairly comfortably Tory (the former has a majority just over 10%) and the latter just under). Woodhouse and Birley have similar sized majorities for Labour, and then Darnall is utterly solid for Labour (roughly 70% of the vote, 50% majority). In Hallam, I have Stannington as by some margin the weakest Lib Dem ward (Lab 36% Con 34% LD 21%). Labour also win Crookes & Crosspool, by a much larger majority. The other three wards all have narrow Lib Dem leads: in Dore and Totley this is a narrow lead over the Tories and Labour are in third (LD 35% Con 32% Lab 27%). |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 15, 2024 20:20:53 GMT
Obviously the term blowout is subjective; if this rumour is true I expect the results in these western estates wouldn't be landslide (as my model projects) but might instead be on the order of: Con 45-50% LD 35-40% Lab 10-15% Yeah, I think that approximation would be about right. I believe Springbank was stronger for the Tories than Hesters Way. In Hallam, I have Stannington as by some margin the weakest Lib Dem ward (Lab 36% Con 34% LD 21%). Labour also win Crookes & Crosspool, by a much larger majority. The other three wards all have narrow Lib Dem leads: in Dore and Totley this is a narrow lead over the Tories and Labour are in third (LD 35% Con 32% Lab 27%). I think your model gets it broadly correct here, but Stannington being weaker for the Lib Dems is a recent (post-Brexit) phenomenon. We apparently narrowly carried it in 2015, but by 2017 had fallen to a poor third. Prior to 2017, I think a demographic based model would basically have been useless for dealing with the Lib Dems. In 2017 it probably began to have some utility (in Hallam more than most places - I guess due to Clegg's high profile role in the Brexit debate), and in 2019 I think it works far better than a local elections based model. Next time I expect local elections will be more use once again. |
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wysall
Forum Regular
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Post by wysall on Jan 16, 2024 2:30:40 GMT
I think it's the constituency-wide levelling--worse in some places than others, seemingly--that really throws his notionals off.
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 16, 2024 6:25:55 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 16, 2024 6:52:32 GMT
That settles a couple of disputed ones. Beckenham & Penge, Kensington & Bayswater are both notionally Labour, Wimbledon Conservative. Not that it proves anything really, as they have Wolverhampton SE as Labour with an increased majority and we know that to be false. Still this is our new 'truth'.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 16, 2024 7:39:37 GMT
Does not suprise me in the slightest I say. This is why after the locals I placed £5 on Labour winning the most seats in a hung parliament in a general election to be held in 2024 |
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Post by markgoodair on Jan 16, 2024 7:41:57 GMT
Does not suprise me in the slightest I say. This is why after the locals I placed £5 on Labour winning the most seats in a hung parliament in a general election to be held in 2024 What odds did you get? |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jan 16, 2024 7:55:24 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jan 16, 2024 8:16:17 GMT
That settles a couple of disputed ones. Beckenham & Penge, Kensington & Bayswater are both notionally Labour, Wimbledon Conservative. Not that it proves anything really, as they have Wolverhampton SE as Labour with an increased majority and we know that to be false. Still this is our new 'truth'. The difficulty with Wolverhampton SE is because of Darlaston being much more Tory than expected, isn't it? The question is whether the difficulties there are caused by Black Country weirdness or whether it's more that we know about them because Wolverhampton and Walsall councils happened to make their results available. |
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Post by matureleft on Jan 16, 2024 8:25:16 GMT
Yup. It’s a mountainous challenge. I have said for ages that the likeliest outcome would seem to be a “Labour largest party” outcome presuming a. A decent Lib Dem campaign focused on Tory southern (including London) seats and deliberately eschewing “reach” Labour targets and b. Some marginal Reform or the like Tory attrition. c. A much weaker nationalist performance than 2019. There’ll be some very large swings as there were in 1997 but also below average swings where local demographics, a decent MP, a proper campaign and a competent local government base mitigates the national trend. But to reach any sort of majority Labour needs wins in places where the party hasn’t had success recently (or ever) on a scale suggesting numerous very well-organised and resourced campaigns. Hard to imagine. That’s not to say it can’t and won’t happen. I’m assuming some natural hardening of the Tory vote and some of their actions are making that quite difficult to achieve. I’d also expect a coherent Tory campaign without loud “noises off” from within the party (and there’s certainly plenty of potential there - some seem quite set on pressing a self-destruct button). And I sense no “closed deal” between Labour and disillusioned Tory voters. That could also change. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 16, 2024 8:26:37 GMT
I have carefully left a column for notionals on my almanac profiles, and will be filling this in over the next couple of weeks. Please add comments there where you think R & T have got it wrong. They're pretty good, but prey to their methods like anyone else, and there are always errors.
PS: what the fuck is an ods file? I've opened it and saved it in Excel.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 16, 2024 8:44:49 GMT
I have carefully left a column for notionals on my almanac profiles, and will be filling this in over the next couple of weeks. Please add comments there where you think R & T have got it wrong. They're pretty good, but prey to their methods like anyone else, and there are always errors. PS: what the fuck is an ods file? I've opened it and saved it in Excel. The ORR uses .ods files for the railway statistics updates which is useless for people like me without a laptop or computer, my phone refuses to convert into an Excel file. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 16, 2024 9:07:53 GMT
That settles a couple of disputed ones. Beckenham & Penge, Kensington & Bayswater are both notionally Labour, Wimbledon Conservative. Not that it proves anything really, as they have Wolverhampton SE as Labour with an increased majority and we know that to be false. Still this is our new 'truth'. Indeed and subject to what ever scheme has been chosen which is going to leave some odd results and ones where we know better but I‘d rather have a consistent scheme than lots of overrides because when people start doing overrides then we get more personal bias coming in. |
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Post by afleitch on Jan 16, 2024 9:10:00 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 16, 2024 9:25:27 GMT
Does not suprise me in the slightest I say. This is why after the locals I placed £5 on Labour winning the most seats in a hung parliament in a general election to be held in 2024 What odds did you get? It was all combined in the same bet, and believe that it if happens that £5 will turn into £19 (£14 plus my orginal £5 back), plus once the election is called I shall place £1 on every Welsh constituency based on what the polls are saying and a bit of common sense. |
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Post by parlconst on Jan 16, 2024 9:57:22 GMT
While it's good that Rallings & Thraher's notionals have finally appeared, does anyone know if they are also producing an analysis of the composition of each new seat in terms of the percentage of the electorate coming from its predecessors, as has been contained in the previous editions of the 'Media Guides'?
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Post by andrewp on Jan 16, 2024 10:14:34 GMT
While it's good that Rallings & Thraher's notionals have finally appeared, does anyone know if they are also producing an analysis of the composition of each new seat in terms of the percentage of the electorate coming from its predecessors, as has been contained in the previous editions of the 'Media Guides'? I don’t know if they are, but the House of Commons Library has a useful tool that has that information commonslibrary.parliament.uk/boundary-review-2023-which-seats-will-change/ |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 16, 2024 10:16:28 GMT
Much more sensible figures for Preston. |
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