Post by yellowfox on Sept 9, 2023 12:05:42 GMT
It's hard to recall a time when the media has so comprehensively focused on a Scottish seat as it has for the October 2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. The candidate elected, almost certainly Labour’s Michael Shanks, will continue this seat’s pattern of never electing the same MP twice in successive elections since its 2005 establishment. Of course, whoever is elected will be the final MP for that constituency, with it being replaced with a reformed Rutherglen constituency at the next Westminster general election. Rutherglen was initially created in 1918 and was in continuous existence until the 2005 boundary reviews, albeit known as Glasgow Rutherglen after 1983.
This was a reflection of the 1975 local government reorganisation which incorporated the town (and Royal Burgh) of Rutherglen into the city. Whilst a controversial incorporation for many residents, its post-1996 position as part of the South Lanarkshire unitary authority is hardly more prominent even leading to a shared parliamentary constituency with (a small part of) Hamilton post-2005 although this does explain the future nomenclature for the parliamentary constituency. In the more distant past, Rutherglen was recognised as a Royal Burgh from 1126 and had its own commissioner in the pre-Union Scottish Parliament. After 1707, Rutherglen first became part of the Glasgow District of Burghs and then, in 1832, the Kilmarnock District of Burghs, although I am unaware if these incorporations caused as much controversy as their 20th century counterparts.
By the time of its parliamentary “independence” in 1918, Rutherglen was clearly overshadowed by its Glaswegian neighbours who, despite being a comparatively youthful Royal Burgh (elevation in 1450) had, fuelled by the industrial revolution, by 1911 achieved a population surpassing 1 million and a suburban built-up area contiguous with the much smaller Rutherglen. Despite its individual history, Rutherglen is now very much within the orbit of Glasgow and it is hard to see where the city stops and the town begins, particularly adjacent to the Glasgow neighbourhood of Kings Park. This is somewhat less true of the parts of the parliamentary constituency outside of the town of Rutherglen but many residents across the constituency now commute into the former ‘second city of the Empire’.
The town of Rutherglen itself is split into two wards (Central & North, and South) for local authority elections and there are plenty of attractive owner occupied residential streets throughout the town, for example around Parkhill Drive, Woodside Avenue and Coldstream Drive. The professional and managerial percentage here is higher than average for the seat but this is especially true in the Rutherglen South ward. However Rutherglen only has around 23,000 electors and is thus a minority of the seat, despite the seat taking its name.
Also included is the town of Cambuslang (25,000 in two wards - East and West), the Blantyre ward (13,000), and, new for 2024, the Bothwell & Uddingston ward (11,000). Like Rutherglen, Cambuslang was part of the Glasgow district between 1975 and 1996 and has an industrial past (coal, iron, steel, and from 1946 to 2005 a Hoover Factory) but now depends more on Glasgow commuting and the M74 corridor; it is a little further from the former but has better access to the latter, for example the large Clydesmill industrial estate, and the Westburn Road estate on the other (south) side of the Clyde.
Blantyre ward is by some way the most working class part of the Rutherglen & Hamilton West constituency. Less than one seventh of its adult population holds a university degree. Under one tenth of workers are in the AB socio-economic categories. It also has a clear plurality of Catholics. This class-based categorisation would naturally be recognisable to the town’s most famous son, David Livingstone, perhaps one of the least controversial figures of the colonial era. The town also has a mining past, tragically the site of Scotland’s worst mining disaster when at least 207 miners lost their lives in an explosion in 1877. Mining activity ceased in 1957 but this history clearly remains identifiable in the social demography and electoral patterns here.
Bothwell and Uddingston ward, joining the constituency in 2024, is very much the flip side of Blantyre, as a glance at the SIMD data highlights. This is commuter country of an affluence comparable to some of the least deprived communities in Rutherglen, with Earls Gate reputedly Greater Glasgow’s most expensive street. This ward includes the site of the Battle of Bothwell Bridge where, in 1679, Government forces ended a brief Convenating rebellion.
Blantyre is the only ward in the new constituency which gave a plurality of first preferences to Labour in the South Lanarkshire unitary authority elections in May 2022, with nearly 45% compared with 42% for the SNP. The Nationalists won all the other wards in the seat, with Labour second in all except the anomalous Rutherglen South where the Liberal Democrats finished second with over 29% of the vote - by far their best performance anywhere in the authority. The Conservatives’ best showing in this constituency was just under 28% in Bothwell & Uddingston, only good enough to come third in the only ward here that returned any Conservative councillors before 2017.
This 2022 pattern is typical of recent contests for Westminster representation in Rutherglen & Hamilton West: the Liberal Democrats, despite a Rutherglen base, finished second in its first general election in 2005, but have done poorly since and only just saved their deposit in 2019 (they had failed to do so in 2017 and 2015). The Conservatives have never broken 20% in the seat as presently constituted, even though they held Rutherglen between 1931 and 1945 and between 1951 and 1964. However it is one of the six that Labour gained in the first Corbyn election of 2017, and for two years Ged Killen interrupted Margaret Ferrier’s tenure as MP. She regained Rutherglen & Hamilton West with a modest 5% swing in December 2019, before being suspended by the SNP, and ultimately removed from parliament by Scotland’s first recall petition, for breaches of covid regulations.
This, alongside their national troubles, will weaken the SNP’s chances of holding the seat either in the October 2023 by-election or the 2024 general election. In any case Rutherglen & Hamilton West was their 4th most vulnerable seat on actual 2019 results to a Labour challenge, making this, unlike others in the Scottish central belt, a seat Labour must surely win if they are to claim an overall majority. Incidentally, it was a by-election gain in 1964 that began Labour’s long hold on this seat which ended only in 2015 and it might be that a similar by-election just months before a general election 60 years later also produces a Labour gain and presages a Labour majority government.
However, whilst Labour may be expected to perform better in a by-election than a general election, we must also take into account the significant changes recommended by the Scottish Boundary Commission. Bothwell and Uddingston is a three-way marginal electorally, with its May 2022 first preferences going 32% to the SNP, 30% to Labour and 28% to the Conservatives. With the Tories finishing second in Lanark & Hamilton East in the 2019 general election but distant third in Rutherglen & Hamilton West; and as Labour has won it as recently as 2017, it may be that ‘unionist’ tactical voting may come into play in the redrawn seat. In any case, the replacement of parts of Hamilton from this seat with a more upscale community will work against the SNP further.
It could be said that there is, small-u, unionist feeling here, Rutherglen Town Hall must be one of only a handful of public buildings in Scotland which fly only the Union flag. Again, this contrasts with nearby Glasgow where the City Chambers will typically fly only the Saltire and unlike the city and other Lanarkshire seats, Rutherglen & Hamilton West is estimated to have voted clearly (55%) against Scottish independence in 2014. The new Rutherglen seat will be more marginal than its predecessor and therefore must be regarded as a major, and probably successful, target for Labour. Much like the mirage of the 50,000-strong French force some thought had massed at the Cathkin Braes (to the south of Rutherglen town) in 1820, Rutherglen seems relatively averse to what some would describe as modern political radicalism.
2011 Census: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Age 65+ 15.2% 440/650
Owner-occupied 65.3% 375/650
Private rented 7.4% 641/650
Social rented 26.7% 89/650
White 97.0% 224/650
Black 0.4% 416/650
Asian 2.2% 350/650
Born in Scotland 92.4% 6/650
Managerial & professional 26.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.0%
Degree level 19.7% 530/650
No qualifications 31.4% 67/650
Students 6.4% 392/650
General Election 2019: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Margaret Ferrier 23,775 44.2 +7.2
Labour Co-op Gerard Killen 18,545 34.5 -3.0
Conservative Lynne Nailon 8,054 15.0 −4.5
Liberal Democrats Mark McGeever 2,791 5.2 +1.0
UKIP Janice MacKay 629 1.2 +0.3
SNP Majority 5,230 9.7
2019 electorate 80,918
Turnout 53,794 66.5 +3.0
SNP gain from Labour Co-op
Swing 5.1 Lab to SNP
This was a reflection of the 1975 local government reorganisation which incorporated the town (and Royal Burgh) of Rutherglen into the city. Whilst a controversial incorporation for many residents, its post-1996 position as part of the South Lanarkshire unitary authority is hardly more prominent even leading to a shared parliamentary constituency with (a small part of) Hamilton post-2005 although this does explain the future nomenclature for the parliamentary constituency. In the more distant past, Rutherglen was recognised as a Royal Burgh from 1126 and had its own commissioner in the pre-Union Scottish Parliament. After 1707, Rutherglen first became part of the Glasgow District of Burghs and then, in 1832, the Kilmarnock District of Burghs, although I am unaware if these incorporations caused as much controversy as their 20th century counterparts.
By the time of its parliamentary “independence” in 1918, Rutherglen was clearly overshadowed by its Glaswegian neighbours who, despite being a comparatively youthful Royal Burgh (elevation in 1450) had, fuelled by the industrial revolution, by 1911 achieved a population surpassing 1 million and a suburban built-up area contiguous with the much smaller Rutherglen. Despite its individual history, Rutherglen is now very much within the orbit of Glasgow and it is hard to see where the city stops and the town begins, particularly adjacent to the Glasgow neighbourhood of Kings Park. This is somewhat less true of the parts of the parliamentary constituency outside of the town of Rutherglen but many residents across the constituency now commute into the former ‘second city of the Empire’.
The town of Rutherglen itself is split into two wards (Central & North, and South) for local authority elections and there are plenty of attractive owner occupied residential streets throughout the town, for example around Parkhill Drive, Woodside Avenue and Coldstream Drive. The professional and managerial percentage here is higher than average for the seat but this is especially true in the Rutherglen South ward. However Rutherglen only has around 23,000 electors and is thus a minority of the seat, despite the seat taking its name.
Also included is the town of Cambuslang (25,000 in two wards - East and West), the Blantyre ward (13,000), and, new for 2024, the Bothwell & Uddingston ward (11,000). Like Rutherglen, Cambuslang was part of the Glasgow district between 1975 and 1996 and has an industrial past (coal, iron, steel, and from 1946 to 2005 a Hoover Factory) but now depends more on Glasgow commuting and the M74 corridor; it is a little further from the former but has better access to the latter, for example the large Clydesmill industrial estate, and the Westburn Road estate on the other (south) side of the Clyde.
Blantyre ward is by some way the most working class part of the Rutherglen & Hamilton West constituency. Less than one seventh of its adult population holds a university degree. Under one tenth of workers are in the AB socio-economic categories. It also has a clear plurality of Catholics. This class-based categorisation would naturally be recognisable to the town’s most famous son, David Livingstone, perhaps one of the least controversial figures of the colonial era. The town also has a mining past, tragically the site of Scotland’s worst mining disaster when at least 207 miners lost their lives in an explosion in 1877. Mining activity ceased in 1957 but this history clearly remains identifiable in the social demography and electoral patterns here.
Bothwell and Uddingston ward, joining the constituency in 2024, is very much the flip side of Blantyre, as a glance at the SIMD data highlights. This is commuter country of an affluence comparable to some of the least deprived communities in Rutherglen, with Earls Gate reputedly Greater Glasgow’s most expensive street. This ward includes the site of the Battle of Bothwell Bridge where, in 1679, Government forces ended a brief Convenating rebellion.
Blantyre is the only ward in the new constituency which gave a plurality of first preferences to Labour in the South Lanarkshire unitary authority elections in May 2022, with nearly 45% compared with 42% for the SNP. The Nationalists won all the other wards in the seat, with Labour second in all except the anomalous Rutherglen South where the Liberal Democrats finished second with over 29% of the vote - by far their best performance anywhere in the authority. The Conservatives’ best showing in this constituency was just under 28% in Bothwell & Uddingston, only good enough to come third in the only ward here that returned any Conservative councillors before 2017.
This 2022 pattern is typical of recent contests for Westminster representation in Rutherglen & Hamilton West: the Liberal Democrats, despite a Rutherglen base, finished second in its first general election in 2005, but have done poorly since and only just saved their deposit in 2019 (they had failed to do so in 2017 and 2015). The Conservatives have never broken 20% in the seat as presently constituted, even though they held Rutherglen between 1931 and 1945 and between 1951 and 1964. However it is one of the six that Labour gained in the first Corbyn election of 2017, and for two years Ged Killen interrupted Margaret Ferrier’s tenure as MP. She regained Rutherglen & Hamilton West with a modest 5% swing in December 2019, before being suspended by the SNP, and ultimately removed from parliament by Scotland’s first recall petition, for breaches of covid regulations.
This, alongside their national troubles, will weaken the SNP’s chances of holding the seat either in the October 2023 by-election or the 2024 general election. In any case Rutherglen & Hamilton West was their 4th most vulnerable seat on actual 2019 results to a Labour challenge, making this, unlike others in the Scottish central belt, a seat Labour must surely win if they are to claim an overall majority. Incidentally, it was a by-election gain in 1964 that began Labour’s long hold on this seat which ended only in 2015 and it might be that a similar by-election just months before a general election 60 years later also produces a Labour gain and presages a Labour majority government.
However, whilst Labour may be expected to perform better in a by-election than a general election, we must also take into account the significant changes recommended by the Scottish Boundary Commission. Bothwell and Uddingston is a three-way marginal electorally, with its May 2022 first preferences going 32% to the SNP, 30% to Labour and 28% to the Conservatives. With the Tories finishing second in Lanark & Hamilton East in the 2019 general election but distant third in Rutherglen & Hamilton West; and as Labour has won it as recently as 2017, it may be that ‘unionist’ tactical voting may come into play in the redrawn seat. In any case, the replacement of parts of Hamilton from this seat with a more upscale community will work against the SNP further.
It could be said that there is, small-u, unionist feeling here, Rutherglen Town Hall must be one of only a handful of public buildings in Scotland which fly only the Union flag. Again, this contrasts with nearby Glasgow where the City Chambers will typically fly only the Saltire and unlike the city and other Lanarkshire seats, Rutherglen & Hamilton West is estimated to have voted clearly (55%) against Scottish independence in 2014. The new Rutherglen seat will be more marginal than its predecessor and therefore must be regarded as a major, and probably successful, target for Labour. Much like the mirage of the 50,000-strong French force some thought had massed at the Cathkin Braes (to the south of Rutherglen town) in 1820, Rutherglen seems relatively averse to what some would describe as modern political radicalism.
2011 Census: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Age 65+ 15.2% 440/650
Owner-occupied 65.3% 375/650
Private rented 7.4% 641/650
Social rented 26.7% 89/650
White 97.0% 224/650
Black 0.4% 416/650
Asian 2.2% 350/650
Born in Scotland 92.4% 6/650
Managerial & professional 26.8%
Routine & Semi-routine 31.0%
Degree level 19.7% 530/650
No qualifications 31.4% 67/650
Students 6.4% 392/650
General Election 2019: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Margaret Ferrier 23,775 44.2 +7.2
Labour Co-op Gerard Killen 18,545 34.5 -3.0
Conservative Lynne Nailon 8,054 15.0 −4.5
Liberal Democrats Mark McGeever 2,791 5.2 +1.0
UKIP Janice MacKay 629 1.2 +0.3
SNP Majority 5,230 9.7
2019 electorate 80,918
Turnout 53,794 66.5 +3.0
SNP gain from Labour Co-op
Swing 5.1 Lab to SNP
