Post by Robert Waller on Sept 8, 2023 21:39:05 GMT
With only a cursory glance at the results of the Staffordshire Moorlands constituency since its creation in 1983, it would be possible to suggest that it is a bellwether seat taken by whichever party wins the general election: Conservative (David Knox MP) from 1983 to 1997, Labour (Charlotte Atkins) 1997-2010 and Tory again (Karen Bradley, who reached the dizzy heights of Cabinet rank for a while) since 2010. However this would be to omit consideration of some factors that influence the status of Staffordshire Moorlands as now a safe Conservative seat, which they would almost certainly retain even if Labour were to win a general election.
There were significant boundary changes in 1997 and 2010 which first helped, then hindered Labour. Between these years, some fairly strongly Labour-leaning northern wards of the borough of Newcastle under Lyme were included, in particular 19,000 electors covering the town of Kidsgrove, which was switched back into the Stoke on Trent North constituency in the latter year. After 2010 there was still one Newcastle ward in Moorlands, but it was the small and rural Newchapel, while the largely middle class and commuting ward of Brown Edge and Endon was moved back into the Staffordshire Moorlands seat. These changes made Karen Bradley’s task in regaining this seat in 2010 easier by several thousand votes, and are one of the factors which helped her to a majority 16,428 (37.2%) in 2019. There are more boundary changes tocome before the next general election, but this time their impact will be almost neutral.
Moorlands is the northernmost seat in the county, bordering Cheshire and Derbyshire’s Peak District. Some of the finest countryside in the North Midlands (and England) is situated here – much of Dovedale and many other Peak District dales, as well as the Manifold Valley, much of which has the aspect of a wooded gorge between rocky crags, such as that containing Thor’s Cave. It stretches as far as the little market town of Longnor, high in the hills near Buxton in Derbyshire’s High Peak constituency (as it happens, Karen Bradley grew up in Buxton (where her father was a very well known publican as the landlord of the Queen’s Head on High Street). Here in the north of the seat are the rocky crags of The Roaches and Flash, the highest village in England (or possibly even the UK) at over 1,500 feet. The rugged hills of the high moors and the dairy farms of the gentler slopes produce a solid Conservative vote; Dane ward, which includes Flash, even in 2023 saw a clear Tory win in a straight fight with a Green, although the Greens did gain Manifold for the first time that year. The seat also includes the softer but still rural scenery south of Leek such as the Churnet Valley, known for its heritage steam railway (and one of the strongest Tory wards in the District even in 2023) and the seat extends as far south as Alton, site of one of the nation’s popular theme parks – probably the best known part of Staffordshire Moorlands, but not typical of the rest of it.
The terrain becomes more competitive for Labour in its urban sections and as one moves towards the Potteries: Biddulph resembles Kidsgrove and shares a common ex-mining tradition, for example. In May 2023 Labour provided five of Biddulph’s council representatives, the other two being Independents. The main town, Leek, has a history of marginality, true to its industrial background – in some ways it looks and behaves like the southernmost Pennine textile town, with prominent converted former mills. In 2023 eleven of Leek’s twelve council winners were Labour, and only one Conservative. There was a constituency called Leek from 1885 to 1983, which returned Labour members from as early as 1918 to 1931, and again from 1935 right through to 1970, but its boundaries were more similar to Moorlands’ 1997-2010 version, including Kidsgrove.
We should mention here the ‘Povey factor’. Steve Povey, who had founded a successful oatcake business (a local speciality, if not exactly a delicacy) stood for UKIP in the 2005 and 2010 elections, obtaining a respectable vote and saving his deposit both times, as well as being elected to the Staffordshire Moorlands council on several occasions between 2003 and 2011 for the most working class Leek ward, North, before his death later in 2011. It is hard to prove if the Povey vote in parliamentary elections weakened any particular party, but one thing it does reflect: this is a Eurosceptic seat, with a Brexit vote of around 66%. That undoubtedly is another factor in the strengthening of the Conservative position in the Staffordshire Moorlands seat in the last decade, as their share has increased each time by around a solid 6 or 7 per cent, from 45.2% in 2010 to a very strong 64.5% in 2019. After that general election, Moorlands was the 264th most marginal Conservative seat, or only about 100 from the safest.
In the ‘2023’ boundary changes, Moorlands expands to include the Cheadle wards from the Stone constituency which is utterly and terminally split asunder. Cheadle, Staffordshire, that is, not to be confused with the one in Cheshire / Greater Manchester that gives its name to a whole constituency. In May 2019 all Cheadle’s councillors, across three wards, had been Independents, but in 2023 Labour gained both the NE and SE wards. A few thousand voters are also transferred out of the seat in the Newchapel and Mow Cop area as it will now include no territory from the borough of Newcastle under Lyme. That departing area has usually seen a Conservative lead. Nevertheless, the notional estimates prepared by our own Pete Whitehead suggest that on the new lines in December 2019 Moorlands would have been just as safe for the Tories as it actually was .
The long term transition to safety is not a function of boundary changes, not least because Stoke on Trent North, the seat with which Kidsgrove has been shuttled, fell in 2019 to the long term Tory surge here. North Staffordshire is a sub-region which has dramatically moved rightwards, perhaps most of all because the Labour party has been seen to move away from its traditional supporters round here. It is not the demographics of Staffordshire Moorlands that have changed. It is as high as 20th for all owner-occupied and 9th for owned outright. 98% white, it is in the top 15 seats in that category in England and Wales. The age profile is well skewed to the over 45s. It ranks 24th in the list for self-identified Christians (58.8% in 2031). It is in the top 100 for employment in agriculture but also for employment in industry, both being rather ‘old-fashioned’. Its average terminal educational qualifications are less academic than average. None of this sounds very much like the latest incarnations of the Labour party. The most famous ride at Alton Towers is probably the ‘terrifying’ Nemesis. But there will many other seats more likely to be the inescapable agents of Rishi Sunak’s downfall than Staffordshire Moorlands.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.2% 57/575
Owner occupied 77.9% 20/575
Private rented 13.0% 530/575
Social rented 9.1% 544/575
White 98.0% 14/575
Black 0.2% 549/575
Asian 0.7% 561/575
Managerial & professional 31.1% 326/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.1% 207/575
Degree level 28.3% 388 /573
No qualifications 20.3% 180/573
Students 4.6% 481/575
General Election 2019: Staffordshire Moorlands
Conservative Karen Bradley 28,192 64.5 + 6.4
Labour Darren Price 11,764 26.9 - 6.9
Liberal Democrats Andrew Gant 2,469 5.7 + 2.3
Green Douglas Rouxel 1,231 2.8 + 1.6
C Majority 16,428 37.6 + 13.4
Turnout 43,656 66.7 - 0.9
Conservative hold Swing Lab to C + 6.7
Boundary Changes
Staffordshire Moorlands will consist of
95.6% of Staffordshire Moorlands
14.0% of Stone
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/west-midlands/West%20Midlands_469_Staffordshire%20Moorlands_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings and Thrasher)
There were significant boundary changes in 1997 and 2010 which first helped, then hindered Labour. Between these years, some fairly strongly Labour-leaning northern wards of the borough of Newcastle under Lyme were included, in particular 19,000 electors covering the town of Kidsgrove, which was switched back into the Stoke on Trent North constituency in the latter year. After 2010 there was still one Newcastle ward in Moorlands, but it was the small and rural Newchapel, while the largely middle class and commuting ward of Brown Edge and Endon was moved back into the Staffordshire Moorlands seat. These changes made Karen Bradley’s task in regaining this seat in 2010 easier by several thousand votes, and are one of the factors which helped her to a majority 16,428 (37.2%) in 2019. There are more boundary changes tocome before the next general election, but this time their impact will be almost neutral.
Moorlands is the northernmost seat in the county, bordering Cheshire and Derbyshire’s Peak District. Some of the finest countryside in the North Midlands (and England) is situated here – much of Dovedale and many other Peak District dales, as well as the Manifold Valley, much of which has the aspect of a wooded gorge between rocky crags, such as that containing Thor’s Cave. It stretches as far as the little market town of Longnor, high in the hills near Buxton in Derbyshire’s High Peak constituency (as it happens, Karen Bradley grew up in Buxton (where her father was a very well known publican as the landlord of the Queen’s Head on High Street). Here in the north of the seat are the rocky crags of The Roaches and Flash, the highest village in England (or possibly even the UK) at over 1,500 feet. The rugged hills of the high moors and the dairy farms of the gentler slopes produce a solid Conservative vote; Dane ward, which includes Flash, even in 2023 saw a clear Tory win in a straight fight with a Green, although the Greens did gain Manifold for the first time that year. The seat also includes the softer but still rural scenery south of Leek such as the Churnet Valley, known for its heritage steam railway (and one of the strongest Tory wards in the District even in 2023) and the seat extends as far south as Alton, site of one of the nation’s popular theme parks – probably the best known part of Staffordshire Moorlands, but not typical of the rest of it.
The terrain becomes more competitive for Labour in its urban sections and as one moves towards the Potteries: Biddulph resembles Kidsgrove and shares a common ex-mining tradition, for example. In May 2023 Labour provided five of Biddulph’s council representatives, the other two being Independents. The main town, Leek, has a history of marginality, true to its industrial background – in some ways it looks and behaves like the southernmost Pennine textile town, with prominent converted former mills. In 2023 eleven of Leek’s twelve council winners were Labour, and only one Conservative. There was a constituency called Leek from 1885 to 1983, which returned Labour members from as early as 1918 to 1931, and again from 1935 right through to 1970, but its boundaries were more similar to Moorlands’ 1997-2010 version, including Kidsgrove.
We should mention here the ‘Povey factor’. Steve Povey, who had founded a successful oatcake business (a local speciality, if not exactly a delicacy) stood for UKIP in the 2005 and 2010 elections, obtaining a respectable vote and saving his deposit both times, as well as being elected to the Staffordshire Moorlands council on several occasions between 2003 and 2011 for the most working class Leek ward, North, before his death later in 2011. It is hard to prove if the Povey vote in parliamentary elections weakened any particular party, but one thing it does reflect: this is a Eurosceptic seat, with a Brexit vote of around 66%. That undoubtedly is another factor in the strengthening of the Conservative position in the Staffordshire Moorlands seat in the last decade, as their share has increased each time by around a solid 6 or 7 per cent, from 45.2% in 2010 to a very strong 64.5% in 2019. After that general election, Moorlands was the 264th most marginal Conservative seat, or only about 100 from the safest.
In the ‘2023’ boundary changes, Moorlands expands to include the Cheadle wards from the Stone constituency which is utterly and terminally split asunder. Cheadle, Staffordshire, that is, not to be confused with the one in Cheshire / Greater Manchester that gives its name to a whole constituency. In May 2019 all Cheadle’s councillors, across three wards, had been Independents, but in 2023 Labour gained both the NE and SE wards. A few thousand voters are also transferred out of the seat in the Newchapel and Mow Cop area as it will now include no territory from the borough of Newcastle under Lyme. That departing area has usually seen a Conservative lead. Nevertheless, the notional estimates prepared by our own Pete Whitehead suggest that on the new lines in December 2019 Moorlands would have been just as safe for the Tories as it actually was .
The long term transition to safety is not a function of boundary changes, not least because Stoke on Trent North, the seat with which Kidsgrove has been shuttled, fell in 2019 to the long term Tory surge here. North Staffordshire is a sub-region which has dramatically moved rightwards, perhaps most of all because the Labour party has been seen to move away from its traditional supporters round here. It is not the demographics of Staffordshire Moorlands that have changed. It is as high as 20th for all owner-occupied and 9th for owned outright. 98% white, it is in the top 15 seats in that category in England and Wales. The age profile is well skewed to the over 45s. It ranks 24th in the list for self-identified Christians (58.8% in 2031). It is in the top 100 for employment in agriculture but also for employment in industry, both being rather ‘old-fashioned’. Its average terminal educational qualifications are less academic than average. None of this sounds very much like the latest incarnations of the Labour party. The most famous ride at Alton Towers is probably the ‘terrifying’ Nemesis. But there will many other seats more likely to be the inescapable agents of Rishi Sunak’s downfall than Staffordshire Moorlands.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 26.2% 57/575
Owner occupied 77.9% 20/575
Private rented 13.0% 530/575
Social rented 9.1% 544/575
White 98.0% 14/575
Black 0.2% 549/575
Asian 0.7% 561/575
Managerial & professional 31.1% 326/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.1% 207/575
Degree level 28.3% 388 /573
No qualifications 20.3% 180/573
Students 4.6% 481/575
General Election 2019: Staffordshire Moorlands
Conservative Karen Bradley 28,192 64.5 + 6.4
Labour Darren Price 11,764 26.9 - 6.9
Liberal Democrats Andrew Gant 2,469 5.7 + 2.3
Green Douglas Rouxel 1,231 2.8 + 1.6
C Majority 16,428 37.6 + 13.4
Turnout 43,656 66.7 - 0.9
Conservative hold Swing Lab to C + 6.7
Boundary Changes
Staffordshire Moorlands will consist of
95.6% of Staffordshire Moorlands
14.0% of Stone
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/west-midlands/West%20Midlands_469_Staffordshire%20Moorlands_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Result (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 30260 | 64.1% |
| Lab | 12601 | 26.7% |
| LD | 2898 | 6.1% |
| Grn | 1450 | 3.1% |
| Con Majority | 17659 | 37.4% |
