Post by Robert Waller on Sept 8, 2023 15:51:39 GMT
Mid Cheshire (as is often the case with a county seat designated with a ‘Mid’ prefix) is technically a new constituency, in that it contains the majority of no previous division. It will be made up of 39.0% of Eddisbury, 36.4% of Weaver Vale, 13.9% of Congleton and 5.4% of Tatton. Nevertheless, despite such disparate origins, if we seek to characterise this constituency, it might be argued to be the most ‘salty’ in Britain.
That is because historically here we have the centre of the English salt extraction industry. (The other significant salt works were at Droitwich, Worcestershire and Teesside). According to Miners, Quarrymen and Saltworkers (ed. Raphael Samuel, 1977), the saltlands of Cheshire occupy an area roughly thirty miles by ten along the Weaver valley. Towards the centre, where the rivers Dane and Weaver converge, is Northwich (currently a significant part of the Weaver Vale seat), which covers the neighbourhoods of Castle, Winnington, Leftwich, Witton and Rudheath as well as the separate community of Hartford. Some six miles to the south, created by an amalgamation of the older townships of Wharton and Over, is Winsford (at present the largest town in Eddisbury constituency). These towns were literally built on salt, the main beds being between 100 and 350 feet below the surface, and forming underground brine streams. Mining and extrication since Roman times have caused extensive subsidence and that in turn has created a surface landscape of lakes known locally as flashes – in addition to the mining equipment, spoil, and transport infrastructure starting with canalisation, including that of the Weaver itself.
The salt mining, which still continues, has literally shaped the character of the parliamentary division here. For example, one industry that followed the salt, since the late 19th century, was chemicals, particularly alkalis – principally in the form of the Brunner Mond company, centred on a huge works at Winnington, whose dominance of employment running well into the 20th century turned Northwich into a virtual company town. Brunner Mond was a key component of the formation of ICI in 1926, and after a series of sales the Winnington works was owned by the Indian giant Tata until its closure in 2014.
Considering the contributing constituencies to the new Mid Cheshire, Weaver Vale can be characterized since its creation in 1997 as a Labour-inclined marginal. There was no surprise that Labour won it (progressively less comfortably) in the three Blair general elections; they won in most places. But it was gained by the Conservative Graham Evans by 991 votes in 2010 when David Cameron came into office, and held by 806 in 2015 when the Tories obtained a majority. However Labour regained it in Theresa May’s (literally) ill-advised election of 2017, and Mike Amesbury held on by a margin of 562 votes in December 2019. Given Labour’s overall disaster of that year, retaining only 202 seats in all, one might ask why they won here in Weaver Vale.
The answer lies largely in location and boundaries. Weaver Vale, for all that we can try to find a unifying factor in the river itself, is actually a typical ragbag of a seat created when Cheshire earned an extra constituency in the review that came into force in 1997. It included territory from four existing divisions – Eddisbury, Halton, Tatton and Warrington South. This was disparate in political terms. The Labour strength is concentrated in two areas, Northwich (ex-Tatton, though there was a seat named after the town from 1885 to 1983); and the eastern wards of the expanded town of Runcorn, which are in the Halton District. The latter really are very strongly Labour, and the core of their ability to win Weaver Vale more often than not.
In the most recent Cheshire West and Chester elections in May 2023 Labour did win all the seats in the core of Northwich – Leftwich, Winnington and Castle, and, most convincingly, Witton with a 68.5% share. However these were the limits of the party’s success. There are two large rural wards, Sandstone (centred on the village of Kingsley) and Weaver & Cuddington. An independent topped the poll in the latter in 2023, but in both the Tories were well ahead among the main parties. Finally there are three wards in a suburban ring around the core of Northwich: Davenham, Moulton & Kingsmead, Hartford & Greenbank and Rudheath. Labour narrowly gained Rudheath in 2023 but the Tories held the other two. Indeed Hartford in particular has even developed something of a tradition of long-distance commuting as far as London due to its station being situated on the fast Liverpool-Birmingham main line, which has led to the creation there of a number of small upmarket estates such as
www.apexcd.co.uk/witton-park
One reason why these Labour areas, apparently in a minority, were usually strong enough to take Weaver Vale as a whole is that the Runcorn section is definitely within the Merseyside sub-region, with its persistent and strong antipathy to the Conservative party. In their proposals and final report for the North West region, the Boundary Commission has recommended the creation of a Runcorn and Helsby seat that takes the whole western section of Weaver Vale – in fact, including the majority of that seat’s voters. So Mid Cheshire does not include the most Labour inclined part of Weaver Vale. However that is not true of the other important elements of the new seat. It also will take in the best parts of two overall safe Tory seats, Eddisbury and Congleton, for Labour – yes, those salt towns, Winsford and Middlewich.
Focusing on the boundary changes, the eastern section of Weaver Vale would form the core of a new seat that was in the initial proposals to be named Northwich. This would also have taken a third of Eddisbury’s electors and a quarter of those from Tatton:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-06-08-North-West-Initial-Proposals-44.-Northwich-CC.pdf
However, in the revised proposals revealed in November 2022 and the final report of June 2023 the rural wards added to the north and west of the proposed Northwich from Eddisbury and Tatton were removed and replaced with the fifth and final Winsford ward and also the town of Middlewich, currently in the Congleton constituency. The name was also changed to the more anodyne and characterless Mid Cheshire, but the seat does have the virtue of uniting the 'salt' towns as well as not dividing Winsford. Middlewich was given the name Salinae by the Romans because of its salt deposits, which shaped its character for the best part of two thousand years.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/NW_42_Mid%20Cheshire%20CC.pdf
The new Mid Cheshire has been estimated to have had a notional Tory lead in December 2019, but maybe no more than 3,000 or 4,000. The section transferred from Eddisbury is not typical, as it is mainly the town of Winsford, which is Labour’s best area by far in the current Eddisbury, with a large number of ‘Liverpool overspill’ estates established from the 1960s onwards, and elected four councillors in 2023, with no other main party returning any; the other three were Independents. Middlewich too is very unlike the rest of Congleton: in the most recent Cheshire East council elections in May 2023 its ward elected a Labour councillor at the top of the poll along with two Independents, while the Conservatives did not even reach 10%. Overall, Mid Cheshire’s demographics are on the downmarket side for the county, indeed with more routine and semi-routine workers and people with no educational qualifications than any of the four seats that contribute to it, including the currently Labour held Weaver Vale. These characteristics may not have helped Labour in the circumstances of December 2019, but those will not pertain in exactly the same way again.
Therefore Mid Cheshire should be regarded as a genuine target in a good year for the Labour party - the sort of year they will need if they are ever to win an overall majority again, give the political transformation of their former stronghold of Scotland. Northwich existed as a constituency for nigh on a century, 98 years to be exact, but Labour never quite won it. In 1945, John Foster beat them in his first contest there by just 15 votes. In 1966, the now Sir John held on again, by 703. Could Labour ever actually crack this salty nut? The creation of the brand new Mid Cheshire constituency in the boundary review is far from certain to generate a Conservative seat.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.1% 331/575
Owner occupied 69.0% 206/575
Private rented 15.5% 416/575
Social rented 15.6% 266/575
White 96.0% 132/575
Black 0.4% 484/575
Asian 1.7% 424/575
Managerial & professional 33.0% 279/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9% 172/575
Degree level 30.4% 332/575
No qualifications 17.4% 313/575
Students 4.7% 454/575
Boundary Changes
The new Mid Cheshire will consist of
39.0% of Eddisbury
36.4% of Weaver Vale
13.9% of Congleton
5.4% of Tatton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_252_Mid%20Cheshire_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
That is because historically here we have the centre of the English salt extraction industry. (The other significant salt works were at Droitwich, Worcestershire and Teesside). According to Miners, Quarrymen and Saltworkers (ed. Raphael Samuel, 1977), the saltlands of Cheshire occupy an area roughly thirty miles by ten along the Weaver valley. Towards the centre, where the rivers Dane and Weaver converge, is Northwich (currently a significant part of the Weaver Vale seat), which covers the neighbourhoods of Castle, Winnington, Leftwich, Witton and Rudheath as well as the separate community of Hartford. Some six miles to the south, created by an amalgamation of the older townships of Wharton and Over, is Winsford (at present the largest town in Eddisbury constituency). These towns were literally built on salt, the main beds being between 100 and 350 feet below the surface, and forming underground brine streams. Mining and extrication since Roman times have caused extensive subsidence and that in turn has created a surface landscape of lakes known locally as flashes – in addition to the mining equipment, spoil, and transport infrastructure starting with canalisation, including that of the Weaver itself.
The salt mining, which still continues, has literally shaped the character of the parliamentary division here. For example, one industry that followed the salt, since the late 19th century, was chemicals, particularly alkalis – principally in the form of the Brunner Mond company, centred on a huge works at Winnington, whose dominance of employment running well into the 20th century turned Northwich into a virtual company town. Brunner Mond was a key component of the formation of ICI in 1926, and after a series of sales the Winnington works was owned by the Indian giant Tata until its closure in 2014.
Considering the contributing constituencies to the new Mid Cheshire, Weaver Vale can be characterized since its creation in 1997 as a Labour-inclined marginal. There was no surprise that Labour won it (progressively less comfortably) in the three Blair general elections; they won in most places. But it was gained by the Conservative Graham Evans by 991 votes in 2010 when David Cameron came into office, and held by 806 in 2015 when the Tories obtained a majority. However Labour regained it in Theresa May’s (literally) ill-advised election of 2017, and Mike Amesbury held on by a margin of 562 votes in December 2019. Given Labour’s overall disaster of that year, retaining only 202 seats in all, one might ask why they won here in Weaver Vale.
The answer lies largely in location and boundaries. Weaver Vale, for all that we can try to find a unifying factor in the river itself, is actually a typical ragbag of a seat created when Cheshire earned an extra constituency in the review that came into force in 1997. It included territory from four existing divisions – Eddisbury, Halton, Tatton and Warrington South. This was disparate in political terms. The Labour strength is concentrated in two areas, Northwich (ex-Tatton, though there was a seat named after the town from 1885 to 1983); and the eastern wards of the expanded town of Runcorn, which are in the Halton District. The latter really are very strongly Labour, and the core of their ability to win Weaver Vale more often than not.
In the most recent Cheshire West and Chester elections in May 2023 Labour did win all the seats in the core of Northwich – Leftwich, Winnington and Castle, and, most convincingly, Witton with a 68.5% share. However these were the limits of the party’s success. There are two large rural wards, Sandstone (centred on the village of Kingsley) and Weaver & Cuddington. An independent topped the poll in the latter in 2023, but in both the Tories were well ahead among the main parties. Finally there are three wards in a suburban ring around the core of Northwich: Davenham, Moulton & Kingsmead, Hartford & Greenbank and Rudheath. Labour narrowly gained Rudheath in 2023 but the Tories held the other two. Indeed Hartford in particular has even developed something of a tradition of long-distance commuting as far as London due to its station being situated on the fast Liverpool-Birmingham main line, which has led to the creation there of a number of small upmarket estates such as
www.apexcd.co.uk/witton-park
One reason why these Labour areas, apparently in a minority, were usually strong enough to take Weaver Vale as a whole is that the Runcorn section is definitely within the Merseyside sub-region, with its persistent and strong antipathy to the Conservative party. In their proposals and final report for the North West region, the Boundary Commission has recommended the creation of a Runcorn and Helsby seat that takes the whole western section of Weaver Vale – in fact, including the majority of that seat’s voters. So Mid Cheshire does not include the most Labour inclined part of Weaver Vale. However that is not true of the other important elements of the new seat. It also will take in the best parts of two overall safe Tory seats, Eddisbury and Congleton, for Labour – yes, those salt towns, Winsford and Middlewich.
Focusing on the boundary changes, the eastern section of Weaver Vale would form the core of a new seat that was in the initial proposals to be named Northwich. This would also have taken a third of Eddisbury’s electors and a quarter of those from Tatton:
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/2021-06-08-North-West-Initial-Proposals-44.-Northwich-CC.pdf
However, in the revised proposals revealed in November 2022 and the final report of June 2023 the rural wards added to the north and west of the proposed Northwich from Eddisbury and Tatton were removed and replaced with the fifth and final Winsford ward and also the town of Middlewich, currently in the Congleton constituency. The name was also changed to the more anodyne and characterless Mid Cheshire, but the seat does have the virtue of uniting the 'salt' towns as well as not dividing Winsford. Middlewich was given the name Salinae by the Romans because of its salt deposits, which shaped its character for the best part of two thousand years.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/NW_42_Mid%20Cheshire%20CC.pdf
The new Mid Cheshire has been estimated to have had a notional Tory lead in December 2019, but maybe no more than 3,000 or 4,000. The section transferred from Eddisbury is not typical, as it is mainly the town of Winsford, which is Labour’s best area by far in the current Eddisbury, with a large number of ‘Liverpool overspill’ estates established from the 1960s onwards, and elected four councillors in 2023, with no other main party returning any; the other three were Independents. Middlewich too is very unlike the rest of Congleton: in the most recent Cheshire East council elections in May 2023 its ward elected a Labour councillor at the top of the poll along with two Independents, while the Conservatives did not even reach 10%. Overall, Mid Cheshire’s demographics are on the downmarket side for the county, indeed with more routine and semi-routine workers and people with no educational qualifications than any of the four seats that contribute to it, including the currently Labour held Weaver Vale. These characteristics may not have helped Labour in the circumstances of December 2019, but those will not pertain in exactly the same way again.
Therefore Mid Cheshire should be regarded as a genuine target in a good year for the Labour party - the sort of year they will need if they are ever to win an overall majority again, give the political transformation of their former stronghold of Scotland. Northwich existed as a constituency for nigh on a century, 98 years to be exact, but Labour never quite won it. In 1945, John Foster beat them in his first contest there by just 15 votes. In 1966, the now Sir John held on again, by 703. Could Labour ever actually crack this salty nut? The creation of the brand new Mid Cheshire constituency in the boundary review is far from certain to generate a Conservative seat.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.1% 331/575
Owner occupied 69.0% 206/575
Private rented 15.5% 416/575
Social rented 15.6% 266/575
White 96.0% 132/575
Black 0.4% 484/575
Asian 1.7% 424/575
Managerial & professional 33.0% 279/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.9% 172/575
Degree level 30.4% 332/575
No qualifications 17.4% 313/575
Students 4.7% 454/575
Boundary Changes
The new Mid Cheshire will consist of
39.0% of Eddisbury
36.4% of Weaver Vale
13.9% of Congleton
5.4% of Tatton
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_252_Mid%20Cheshire_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 22022 | 47.0% |
| Lab | 19528 | 41.6% |
| LD | 3934 | 8.4% |
| Green | 921 | 2.0% |
| Brexit | 502 | 1.1% |
| | ||
| Con Majority | 2494 | 5.3% |
