Post by Robert Waller on Sept 6, 2023 17:21:09 GMT
Within the general narrative of continued SNP dominance in recent Scottish elections, along with precipitate Labour decline and failure to recover in what was once their North British stronghold, it may easily be forgotten that in 2017 there was a distinct blip in the pattern. The Nationalists wobbled significantly and lost 21 of their remarkable haul of gains in 2015, while Labour increased from one to seven. One of these six recoveries of seats occurred in Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill. Nor should this be a surprise, really, as back in 2005 this constituency had seen Labour’s strongest performance anywhere in Scotland and was indeed one of their ten safest seats anywhere in Britain. In fact it produced the largest numerical majority anywhere, over 19,000. In 2015 it needed a 36.3% swing for the SNP to oust the long serving and popular Labour MP Tom Clarke. It is true that Labour’s renewed tenure was cut short in 2019 after only two years, but there are still reasons why the Coatbridge based seat, somewhat modified by the 2023 boundary changes offers some hope to the party that held it by such a margin for so long - and in the short term too.
The present constituency of Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill is a north-south strip set east of Glasgow and within the North Lanarkshire council area. At the north end it stretches beyond Gartcosh to include the towns of Stepps and Chryston, and reaches the outskirts of Cumbernauld New Town. In its ‘deep south’ lies Bellshill. But the biggest town and centre of the seat is Coatbridge, which was paired with Airdrie in a division that bore both their names from 1950 to 1983, then submerged anonymously in Monklands West between 1983 and 1997. As well as being extremely safe for Labour, the Coatbridge area was known for one other striking characteristic. This is the most Roman Catholic part of Scotland, and perhaps of Britain.
In the 2001 census when religious statistics were released at the parliamentary constituency level, Coatbridge & Chryston, as it was then, recorded 44.5% Catholic, a higher proportion than any other seat. In 2011 the present seat was no.3 as far as ‘Christian’ was concerned in Scotland, with 71.9% recording themselves as such – this is usually considered a surrogate indicator for a high number of Catholics. This can be tested by scrutinising ward level data within the constituency. In Coatbridge West for example, in 2011 there were 8,634 Catholics out of a total population of 15,436, compared with 3,203 of all other Christian appellations. Coatbridge South’s figures were almost as remarkable. In all the other wards within the seat, Catholics were in the plurality among all responses to the question about religion, and only in Bellshill did they account for less than 50% of Christians. These distinctive findings clearly reflect the heavy Irish migration during its peak as an industrial powerhouse on the 19th and 20th centuries, giving rise to the largest St Patrick’s Day celebration in Scotland and even, allegedly, a distinctly ‘Coatbridge’ accent.
Back in the days of bipolar political contests between the Labour Party and Unionism in the former of the Conservatives in Scotland, the Irish and Catholic presence would undoubtedly have strengthened the former, for example in contrast with Coatbridge’s twin town’ a few miles east, Airdrie. However the Labour strength has clearly been very much diluted by the rise of the SNP as their significant opponents. A countervailing tendency must be the appeal of independence from England. In the September 2014 referendum, North Lanarkshire was one of only four council areas that had a ‘Yes’ majority, along with Dundee, Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire. The figures for the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill seat cannot be disaggregated. But in the 2011 census it was the constituency with the 2nd highest proportion of people born in Scotland.
In the May 2022 municipal election results, all of the wards within Coatbridge, Chyrston & Bellshill had SNP pluralities in first preferences except for Thorniewood, which is tucked in the seat’s south-western corner and contains the communities of Viewpark, Tannochside, Calderbraes (also known as Birkenshaw) and Bargeddie. These are mainly post-war housing estates, originally council built such as those designed for coal miners at the nearby, defunct, Tannochside colliery, with some private developments south of the Old Edinburgh Road. Here Labour topped the poll with over 43% to the SNP’s 36% (though the SNP ward councillor Steven Bonnar was the man who regained the Westminster seat in 2019). The six other wards all saw Nationalist leads, their share ranging from 36% in Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead (which was also the only ward in which the Conservatives reached double figures in percentage share, having some decent swathes of private housing).to over 53% in Coatbridge South.
This is largely a working class constituency with considerable pockets of deprivation. As well a still being one of the 50 seats in the UK with the highest proportion of social housing (over 30%), it is even higher up the list for those with no educational qualifications. The internal pattern, for example of educational (non-) achievement can be seen in North Lanarkshire’s community board profiles.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Coatbridge%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
In Coatbridge for example, the poorest areas are in the south of the town, for example in the rather grim (looking at least) neighbourhood of Whifletts, with its tower blocks and modern tenements. To be honest, much of Coatbridge (total population 46,000) appears grim, though all its wards actually have a majority of people living in owner occupied accommodation. There are, in fact, if one searches hard enough, some attractive neighbourhoods even in Coatbridge itself (clues: Drumpellier, Blairhill, Dunbeth). The second largest town, Bellshill (15,000, though a minority of it is in the Motherwell & Wishaw constituency) also has variation in its internal pattern though generally it is less deprived than Coatbridge.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Bellshill%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020%20-%20Copy.pdf
In the forthcoming boundary changes, the Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead ward will be moved to join Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch. This necessitates a name change here to Coatbridge and Bellshill. This is even more appropriate because the rest of the latter town (its south eastern quadrant) is added in the shape of about half of Mossend & Holytown ward, currently in Motherwell & Wishaw.
Despite its Labour heritage, and even its recent electoral history, the SNP will still have a chance of holding the seat next time. In addition to the 2022 local election evidence, the Nationalists won the May 2021 Scottish Parliament constituency of Coatbridge & Chryston by nearly two to one. However it does still rank as Labour’s seventh closest target in Scotland, requiring a swing since 2019 of less than 6%. It is hard to see Keir Starmer’s party winning an overall majority without some help from north of the border, and they do have that 2017 result to boost their optimism. What is more, the SNP's fortunes have been in steep decline recently and Coatbridge & Bellshill will be one of the most likely Labour gains in Scotland in a 2024 genera election
The last iron works, at Gartsherrie, closed in 1967. The Gartcosh steel works finished production in 1986. The last mine in the Lanarkshire coalfield, Bedlay east of Moodiesburn, closed in 1981. The seat’s past still shapes its culture, and it is no surprise that the Summerlee Museum of Scottish Industrial Life is located in Coatbridge. However there has also been a lot of new housing development. In the early 1980s 85% of Coatbridge’s housing stock was council owned, but now the strategic location of the constituency between Glasgow and Edinburgh and close to the M8 and M73 motorways makes it suitable as a relatively low cost base for commuting, and the location of light industrial estates and retail and storage facilities. It is a functional seat and not remote. It clearly does have a future as well as a past. However, whichever party represents it, one cannot but feel that like Coatbridge’s football club, Albion Rovers, perennially to be found in the lower reaches of the bottom division of the Scottish League and finally dispatched into the nether world of the Lowland League after their relegation in the 2022-23 season, that the future of this seat, however drawn in detail, however named, will not broach the heights of affluence or glamour.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.4% 495/650
Owner-occupied 62.1% 447/650
Private rented 6.7% 647/650
Social rented 30.6% 48/650
White 98.1% 106/650
Black 0.1% 587/650
Asian 1.5% 415/650
Christian 71.9% 3/59
Born in Scotland 94.1% 2/650
Managerial & professional 24.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8%
Degree level 17.0% 590/650
No qualifications 33.9% 26/650
Students 6.7% 338/650
2022 Census
Details will be added here if and when available
2019 General election: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Steven Bonnar 22,680 47.0 +7.9
Labour Hugh Gaffney 17,056 35.4 -7.2
Conservative Nathan Wilson 6,113 12.7 -3.5
Liberal Democrats David Stevens 1,564 3.2 +1.2
Green Patrick McAleer 808 1.7 New
SNP Majority 5,624 11.7
2019 electorate 72,943
Turnout 48,221 66.3 +3.0
SNP gain from Labour
Swing 7.6 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
The new Coatbridge & Bellshill will consist of
85.7% of Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
12.2% of Motherwell & Wishaw
1.2% of Airdrie & Shotts
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/coatbridge_and_bellshill_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
The present constituency of Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill is a north-south strip set east of Glasgow and within the North Lanarkshire council area. At the north end it stretches beyond Gartcosh to include the towns of Stepps and Chryston, and reaches the outskirts of Cumbernauld New Town. In its ‘deep south’ lies Bellshill. But the biggest town and centre of the seat is Coatbridge, which was paired with Airdrie in a division that bore both their names from 1950 to 1983, then submerged anonymously in Monklands West between 1983 and 1997. As well as being extremely safe for Labour, the Coatbridge area was known for one other striking characteristic. This is the most Roman Catholic part of Scotland, and perhaps of Britain.
In the 2001 census when religious statistics were released at the parliamentary constituency level, Coatbridge & Chryston, as it was then, recorded 44.5% Catholic, a higher proportion than any other seat. In 2011 the present seat was no.3 as far as ‘Christian’ was concerned in Scotland, with 71.9% recording themselves as such – this is usually considered a surrogate indicator for a high number of Catholics. This can be tested by scrutinising ward level data within the constituency. In Coatbridge West for example, in 2011 there were 8,634 Catholics out of a total population of 15,436, compared with 3,203 of all other Christian appellations. Coatbridge South’s figures were almost as remarkable. In all the other wards within the seat, Catholics were in the plurality among all responses to the question about religion, and only in Bellshill did they account for less than 50% of Christians. These distinctive findings clearly reflect the heavy Irish migration during its peak as an industrial powerhouse on the 19th and 20th centuries, giving rise to the largest St Patrick’s Day celebration in Scotland and even, allegedly, a distinctly ‘Coatbridge’ accent.
Back in the days of bipolar political contests between the Labour Party and Unionism in the former of the Conservatives in Scotland, the Irish and Catholic presence would undoubtedly have strengthened the former, for example in contrast with Coatbridge’s twin town’ a few miles east, Airdrie. However the Labour strength has clearly been very much diluted by the rise of the SNP as their significant opponents. A countervailing tendency must be the appeal of independence from England. In the September 2014 referendum, North Lanarkshire was one of only four council areas that had a ‘Yes’ majority, along with Dundee, Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire. The figures for the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill seat cannot be disaggregated. But in the 2011 census it was the constituency with the 2nd highest proportion of people born in Scotland.
In the May 2022 municipal election results, all of the wards within Coatbridge, Chyrston & Bellshill had SNP pluralities in first preferences except for Thorniewood, which is tucked in the seat’s south-western corner and contains the communities of Viewpark, Tannochside, Calderbraes (also known as Birkenshaw) and Bargeddie. These are mainly post-war housing estates, originally council built such as those designed for coal miners at the nearby, defunct, Tannochside colliery, with some private developments south of the Old Edinburgh Road. Here Labour topped the poll with over 43% to the SNP’s 36% (though the SNP ward councillor Steven Bonnar was the man who regained the Westminster seat in 2019). The six other wards all saw Nationalist leads, their share ranging from 36% in Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead (which was also the only ward in which the Conservatives reached double figures in percentage share, having some decent swathes of private housing).to over 53% in Coatbridge South.
This is largely a working class constituency with considerable pockets of deprivation. As well a still being one of the 50 seats in the UK with the highest proportion of social housing (over 30%), it is even higher up the list for those with no educational qualifications. The internal pattern, for example of educational (non-) achievement can be seen in North Lanarkshire’s community board profiles.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Coatbridge%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020.pdf
In Coatbridge for example, the poorest areas are in the south of the town, for example in the rather grim (looking at least) neighbourhood of Whifletts, with its tower blocks and modern tenements. To be honest, much of Coatbridge (total population 46,000) appears grim, though all its wards actually have a majority of people living in owner occupied accommodation. There are, in fact, if one searches hard enough, some attractive neighbourhoods even in Coatbridge itself (clues: Drumpellier, Blairhill, Dunbeth). The second largest town, Bellshill (15,000, though a minority of it is in the Motherwell & Wishaw constituency) also has variation in its internal pattern though generally it is less deprived than Coatbridge.
www.northlanarkshire.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2021-08/Abbreviated%20Bellshill%20Community%20Profile%20May%202020%20-%20Copy.pdf
In the forthcoming boundary changes, the Stepps, Chryston & Muirhead ward will be moved to join Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch. This necessitates a name change here to Coatbridge and Bellshill. This is even more appropriate because the rest of the latter town (its south eastern quadrant) is added in the shape of about half of Mossend & Holytown ward, currently in Motherwell & Wishaw.
Despite its Labour heritage, and even its recent electoral history, the SNP will still have a chance of holding the seat next time. In addition to the 2022 local election evidence, the Nationalists won the May 2021 Scottish Parliament constituency of Coatbridge & Chryston by nearly two to one. However it does still rank as Labour’s seventh closest target in Scotland, requiring a swing since 2019 of less than 6%. It is hard to see Keir Starmer’s party winning an overall majority without some help from north of the border, and they do have that 2017 result to boost their optimism. What is more, the SNP's fortunes have been in steep decline recently and Coatbridge & Bellshill will be one of the most likely Labour gains in Scotland in a 2024 genera election
The last iron works, at Gartsherrie, closed in 1967. The Gartcosh steel works finished production in 1986. The last mine in the Lanarkshire coalfield, Bedlay east of Moodiesburn, closed in 1981. The seat’s past still shapes its culture, and it is no surprise that the Summerlee Museum of Scottish Industrial Life is located in Coatbridge. However there has also been a lot of new housing development. In the early 1980s 85% of Coatbridge’s housing stock was council owned, but now the strategic location of the constituency between Glasgow and Edinburgh and close to the M8 and M73 motorways makes it suitable as a relatively low cost base for commuting, and the location of light industrial estates and retail and storage facilities. It is a functional seat and not remote. It clearly does have a future as well as a past. However, whichever party represents it, one cannot but feel that like Coatbridge’s football club, Albion Rovers, perennially to be found in the lower reaches of the bottom division of the Scottish League and finally dispatched into the nether world of the Lowland League after their relegation in the 2022-23 season, that the future of this seat, however drawn in detail, however named, will not broach the heights of affluence or glamour.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.4% 495/650
Owner-occupied 62.1% 447/650
Private rented 6.7% 647/650
Social rented 30.6% 48/650
White 98.1% 106/650
Black 0.1% 587/650
Asian 1.5% 415/650
Christian 71.9% 3/59
Born in Scotland 94.1% 2/650
Managerial & professional 24.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8%
Degree level 17.0% 590/650
No qualifications 33.9% 26/650
Students 6.7% 338/650
2022 Census
Details will be added here if and when available
2019 General election: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Steven Bonnar 22,680 47.0 +7.9
Labour Hugh Gaffney 17,056 35.4 -7.2
Conservative Nathan Wilson 6,113 12.7 -3.5
Liberal Democrats David Stevens 1,564 3.2 +1.2
Green Patrick McAleer 808 1.7 New
SNP Majority 5,624 11.7
2019 electorate 72,943
Turnout 48,221 66.3 +3.0
SNP gain from Labour
Swing 7.6 Lab to SNP
Boundary Changes
The new Coatbridge & Bellshill will consist of
85.7% of Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
12.2% of Motherwell & Wishaw
1.2% of Airdrie & Shotts
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/coatbridge_and_bellshill_0.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 21730 | 47.4% |
| Lab | 16646 | 36.3% |
| Con | 5444 | 11.9% |
| LD | 1375 | 3.0% |
| Green | 701 | 1.5% |
| | ||
| Majority | 5084 | 11.1% |