Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2023 7:23:40 GMT
Exeter is Devon‘s oldest city and its administrative headquarters. It is well sited at the junction of the M5, A30 and A38, and millions thrash past it each year on the way to Cornwall. In 1942, like many other large Southern Towns and Cities, the city centre was bombed as part of the Baedeker blitz and large parts of the city centre were destroyed. The city centre was rebuilt in an unsympathetic 1950’s style. In the last few years, the redevelopment of the Princesshay shopping area has brought a fresh feel to the City Centre.
Exeter is home to the Exeter Chiefs Rugby Union team, who have risen from the 4th tier of English Rugby in 1995 to be English champions in 2017 and 2020 and European Champions in 2020. As part of that growth they moved from their rather ramshackle ground in St Thomas to a new stadium, Sandy Park, next to the M5 which is outside of the city constituency boundaries. Exeter is 93% white, with the next biggest group being the Chinese population. One of the largest employers in the city is the Met Office which relocated from Bracknell to Exeter in 2004. It has a University founded in the 1950’s which is situated on a hilly campus about a mile to the North of the City Centre, and which has a very good reputation. Exeter feels like a student city with rows and rows of terraced streets to the North and East of the City Centre.
Labour’s strongest areas traditionally were in the former council estate wards in the East of the city like Whipton and Stoke Hill, as well as the more central terrace streets in Newtown and across the river in Exwick and St Thomas. Exeter Labour party has a very good campaigning reputation, and they have a good record in local council elections. Despite having a moderate Labour MP in Ben Bradshaw, there were never any issues with Labour Party factions in the last few years.
The Conservatives traditional strength in Exeter city is in the South East around Countess Wear and Topsham. Topsham is a small town, with a pretty high street and marina on the river Exe some 4 miles South East of Exeter, which arguably should be in East Devon district area rather than the City. On the face of it is it is quite remarkable that the Labour party have won Topsham ward in 2022 and 2023, their first ever wins there. It’s not quite such a surprise when one considers that the majority of the population in the ward is in fact west of the motorway in Countess Wear Road and in the new developments at Newcourt around the Rugby Ground rather than in Topsham itself, which probably still just about votes Conservative, but it is a sign of the attraction of the Labour party to the type of young professionals who work in Exeter.
In the boundary review that took place before the 2010 election, the city and council area of Exeter had got to the point where it was too big for one constituency. The initial proposal was to remove the 3 wards West of the Exe into the new Central Devon constituency. This would almost certainly have led to a Conservative gain in 2010, and on which boundaries even in 2019, the Labour majority would probably have been nearer 2000 or 3000 than the 10000 that Bradshaw achieved. The Labour party effectively won the enquiry and the final proposals were to remove the 2 best Conservative wards in the city- the aforementioned Topsham and St Loyes into East Devon.
The boundary commission review which concluded in 2023 has recommended the relatively minor sole change of the removal of a 3rd ward on the Eastern edge of the city- Pinhoe - into the newly named Exeter East and Exmouth constituency. Pinhoe has been a consistently marginal ward between Labour and the Conservatives and itself has seen a large amount of new house building in the new community of Monkerton near the M5. The removal of this ward will reduce the numerical Labour majority but slightly increase the percentage majority for Labour.
The Labour strength is quite efficiently consistent across the city, although in recent years the Greens, who are the now the official opposition on the council, have started to win the central studenty wards. In the 2023 local elections, of the 10 wards in the new constituency, Labour won 5 to the Greens 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2. The vote share in the Exeter constituency was Labour 43% Green 27% Conservative 14% Liberal Democrat 14%. The Greens won the trio of wards immediately to the East and the South East of the city centre- Heavitree, Newtown & St Leonards and St Davids. Aided by the pact which led to the Liberal Democrats not standing at the General Election here in 2019, the Greens polled 8.6% and nearly 5000 votes. They may be hampered by the Liberal Democrats re entering the field in 2024 but there is a local Government base and a favourable and growing demographic for the Greens in Exeter.
Prior to 1997, Labour had only won Exeter once - in 1966. In 1945 the Conservatives had held by 1175. In 1966 Gwyneth Dunwoody gained the seat for Labour, but she was defeated in 1970 by John Hannam. Hannam held the seat for 27 years. On his retirement the Conservatives selected the very right wing candidate Adrian Rogers. After a very acrimonious battle, he was defeated by the openly gay Ben Bradshaw by 11700 votes. Bradshaw has usually enjoyed healthy majorities- the sole exception being 2010 when it was cut to 2700 and as discussed he had the boundary Comsission’s decision to thank for holding in that year. By 2017, he had rebuilt his majority to a massive 16000. In December 2019 there was a 5% swing to the Conservatives, but Bradshaw still won by 10400, and unless the boundary commission intervene, it now feels like a safe Labour seat. Ben Bradshaw announced his retirement in 2022 and in one of the earlier Labour selections, Steve Race, a councillor in Hackney and former assistant to Bradshaw was selected as Labour candidate and he will have no problems being elected in 2024.
Exeter is home to the Exeter Chiefs Rugby Union team, who have risen from the 4th tier of English Rugby in 1995 to be English champions in 2017 and 2020 and European Champions in 2020. As part of that growth they moved from their rather ramshackle ground in St Thomas to a new stadium, Sandy Park, next to the M5 which is outside of the city constituency boundaries. Exeter is 93% white, with the next biggest group being the Chinese population. One of the largest employers in the city is the Met Office which relocated from Bracknell to Exeter in 2004. It has a University founded in the 1950’s which is situated on a hilly campus about a mile to the North of the City Centre, and which has a very good reputation. Exeter feels like a student city with rows and rows of terraced streets to the North and East of the City Centre.
Labour’s strongest areas traditionally were in the former council estate wards in the East of the city like Whipton and Stoke Hill, as well as the more central terrace streets in Newtown and across the river in Exwick and St Thomas. Exeter Labour party has a very good campaigning reputation, and they have a good record in local council elections. Despite having a moderate Labour MP in Ben Bradshaw, there were never any issues with Labour Party factions in the last few years.
The Conservatives traditional strength in Exeter city is in the South East around Countess Wear and Topsham. Topsham is a small town, with a pretty high street and marina on the river Exe some 4 miles South East of Exeter, which arguably should be in East Devon district area rather than the City. On the face of it is it is quite remarkable that the Labour party have won Topsham ward in 2022 and 2023, their first ever wins there. It’s not quite such a surprise when one considers that the majority of the population in the ward is in fact west of the motorway in Countess Wear Road and in the new developments at Newcourt around the Rugby Ground rather than in Topsham itself, which probably still just about votes Conservative, but it is a sign of the attraction of the Labour party to the type of young professionals who work in Exeter.
In the boundary review that took place before the 2010 election, the city and council area of Exeter had got to the point where it was too big for one constituency. The initial proposal was to remove the 3 wards West of the Exe into the new Central Devon constituency. This would almost certainly have led to a Conservative gain in 2010, and on which boundaries even in 2019, the Labour majority would probably have been nearer 2000 or 3000 than the 10000 that Bradshaw achieved. The Labour party effectively won the enquiry and the final proposals were to remove the 2 best Conservative wards in the city- the aforementioned Topsham and St Loyes into East Devon.
The boundary commission review which concluded in 2023 has recommended the relatively minor sole change of the removal of a 3rd ward on the Eastern edge of the city- Pinhoe - into the newly named Exeter East and Exmouth constituency. Pinhoe has been a consistently marginal ward between Labour and the Conservatives and itself has seen a large amount of new house building in the new community of Monkerton near the M5. The removal of this ward will reduce the numerical Labour majority but slightly increase the percentage majority for Labour.
The Labour strength is quite efficiently consistent across the city, although in recent years the Greens, who are the now the official opposition on the council, have started to win the central studenty wards. In the 2023 local elections, of the 10 wards in the new constituency, Labour won 5 to the Greens 3 and the Liberal Democrats 2. The vote share in the Exeter constituency was Labour 43% Green 27% Conservative 14% Liberal Democrat 14%. The Greens won the trio of wards immediately to the East and the South East of the city centre- Heavitree, Newtown & St Leonards and St Davids. Aided by the pact which led to the Liberal Democrats not standing at the General Election here in 2019, the Greens polled 8.6% and nearly 5000 votes. They may be hampered by the Liberal Democrats re entering the field in 2024 but there is a local Government base and a favourable and growing demographic for the Greens in Exeter.
Prior to 1997, Labour had only won Exeter once - in 1966. In 1945 the Conservatives had held by 1175. In 1966 Gwyneth Dunwoody gained the seat for Labour, but she was defeated in 1970 by John Hannam. Hannam held the seat for 27 years. On his retirement the Conservatives selected the very right wing candidate Adrian Rogers. After a very acrimonious battle, he was defeated by the openly gay Ben Bradshaw by 11700 votes. Bradshaw has usually enjoyed healthy majorities- the sole exception being 2010 when it was cut to 2700 and as discussed he had the boundary Comsission’s decision to thank for holding in that year. By 2017, he had rebuilt his majority to a massive 16000. In December 2019 there was a 5% swing to the Conservatives, but Bradshaw still won by 10400, and unless the boundary commission intervene, it now feels like a safe Labour seat. Ben Bradshaw announced his retirement in 2022 and in one of the earlier Labour selections, Steve Race, a councillor in Hackney and former assistant to Bradshaw was selected as Labour candidate and he will have no problems being elected in 2024.
