Post by Robert Waller on Sept 5, 2023 12:56:56 GMT
Cambridgeshire has been one of the fastest growing English counties for several decades now, and this has had a concomitant effect on its parliamentary representation: it has been awarded an extra seat twice in the last 30 years. In the round of boundary changes recently completed, in force for the 2024 General Election, a St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire seat was created as an eighth for the county. Back in the boundary review that came into effect in 1997, the extra and additional constituency, the seventh, was clearly North West Cambridgeshire.
Most of its electorate came from John Major’s formerly swollen Huntingdon constituency, which boasted 93,000 electors in 1992. In addition to the 40,000 voters from the former Huntingdon, NW Cambridgeshire was given the four wards of the Peterborough seat south of the River Nene. It is indeed strongly influenced by that large town, for the old Huntingdon stretched to curl round Peterborough taking in some of its suburbs to the south, west and even north, around Glinton. The intervening boundary review, which came into force in 2010, had only minor impact here.
The 2023 review changes were again substantial, but NW Cambridgeshire returned one of the largest Conservative majorities, reaching seventeen votes short of 26,000, in December 2019, though its massive electorate (94,909 at that election) meant that it only reached 80th in their list of safe seats by percentage majority; that would still mean a swing of over 20.1% would be required for Labour to take it, which normally does not happen outside byelection circumstances.
This is not to say that this constituency reaches extremes in its social, economic and demographic variables. It is close to average in its proportion of owner occupied housing, those educated to at least degree level, and not far above average for the percentage of professional and managerial workers, in fact further above average for routine and semi-routine jobs. The pattern does not fit that of a rural constituency. The age profile is decidedly younger than average, and it has more Black and Asian residents than the norm. There are some ‘ordinary’ neighbourhoods here. Within Peterborough (south of the Nene) lie the rather working class Stanground, and Fletton (Old and New) with its terraced housing and the London Road stadium of Peterborough FC, set in distinctly unglamorous environs. The boundaries here approach the city centre closely, and indeed this is an ‘inner urban’ section. Labour won Fletton & Woodston in May 2023 the most recent local elections n Peterborough) but the Tories held Stanground South.
Nor are the more modern post New Town designation (1964) neighbourhoods west of the Nene Parkway consistently up-market. These include the Ortons – Waterville, Longueville, Brimbles, Malborne, Goldhay, Southgate – mixed class and mixed housing tenure, with substantial social rented estates in the Orton Malbourne and Goldhay MSOA in the 2021 census, for example. The Ortons are not safe for the Conservative party. In May 2023 (the Greens were overwhelmingly successful in Waterville with 70% of the vote in a four way party contest; they also gained Longueville, which has a history including victory for UKIP in 2016. The new development south and south west of Peterborough is continuing, and generating new wards beyond Fletton Parkway such as Hargate & Hempstead and Hampton Vale, which is not fully built and generated only a little over 1,000 votes in 2023 (the Liberal Democrats won).
Although the (mainly newish) suburbs of Peterborough comprise over half of the electorate of NW Cambridgeshire, and growing, they are only a small part of its geographical area – which is what justifies the name of the seat in the eyes of the Commission. Its western half currently runs along both sides of the A1 (in the southern half here A1M) for over 20 miles. At the northern end this reaches as far as the Burghley Park historic base of the Cecil family, originally ministers of Elizabeth I, just outside Stamford in Lincolnshire; then moving southwards, Wittering with its operative RAF station, and Wansford, an old coaching stop with its Haycock Inn hotel. South of the latitude of Peterborough is Stilton village, which gave its name to the cheese but oddly is not now licensed to make it, as from 1996 three counties received Protected Geographic Status (Derby, Leicester, Nottingham) – but not Cambridgeshire. Then finally the A1 bypasses Sawtry on its way into Huntingdon constituency.
Meanwhile, in the eastern half of the constituency we find the expanded village of Yaxley, a fair chunk of Fen country around small town of Ramsey, originally a Benedictine monastic foundation in the 10th century and dominated by its abbey until the Dissolution, and the large village of Warboys. All these communities lie in the local authority district of Huntingdonshire – and all were easily won by the Conservatives when they were most recently up for election in May 2022 (even being unopposed in Sawtry), with the solitary exception that one Independent defeated the third Tory in Yaxley ward. Up in the rural north west of the Peterborough council area, so thinly populated that there aren’t elections every May, last time they were contested the Tories held Wittering and Glinton, the latter very comfortably indeed.
Overall, then, the recent electoral pattern of NW Cambridgeshire has been that the Conservatives built up massive majorities in the countryside wards, while the ‘urban Peterborough’ half was much more mixed. In its first two contests in 1997 and 2001 Labour achieved a share of over 30% and kept the majority of Sir Brian Mawhinney down to around 8,000. However since then the Tory lead has essentially been rising inexorably, with only a slight blip in 2017. What is more, their proportion of the votes cast has also risen for four elections in a row (including in 2017) to reach 62.8% in 2019. In the last two elections other parties have performed poorly, though the Liberal Democrats finished second in 2010 and UKIP did in 2015 – the seat is estimated to have voted 57% to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, not as emphatic a verdict as many in the Eastern region but more clear than the national average. The ‘European factor’ will have played a significant part in the swing from Labour to Conservative of over 6% in the general election in December 2019.
In the boundary changes, the more rural section was reduced and the influence of the still-growing Peterborough portion increased. By the time the Commission started its work, the electorate of this constituency had ballooned further to 95,684, one of the five highest in the United Kingdom (only Isle of Wight, Bristol West, West Ham and Milton Keynes SW were larger in 2019). Their proposals, as confirmed in the final report of June 2023, recommended that the Huntingdonshire district wards of Holywell-cum-Needingworth, Somersham, Warboys, and Sawtry be transferred to the proposed Huntingdon division.
This added up to around 19,200 mainly rural electors, accounting for 24% of the existing NW Cambridgeshire seat. This meant that it was even more influenced by the built up area of Peterborough, but in stark contrast to the Commissions’ naming policy elsewhere, that city still does not get a mention in the title. (Contrast, for example, Reading West & Mid Berkshire, and Romsey & Southampton North, both of which include far less of the named urban unit and do not approach the city/town centre as closely as this one does). This seat is definitely Peterborough South & NW Cambridgeshire. Or, as that is indeed a mouthful, just Peterborough South, given that urban wards make up well over half the electorate. Although the seat has been established for a quarter of a century now, it still feels (both on current and the suggested future boundaries) like a ‘bits and pieces’ constituency. Bits of true-blue countryside, pieces of Peterborough. Speaking of blue, suggestions that the seat might be renamed Stilton and Peterborough South failed to to mature and be consumed by the Boundary Commission with relish.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_084_North%20West%20Cambridgeshire_Landscape.pdf
The political effect was to reduce the huge majority Shailesh Vara had in December 2019, and also make the seat vulnerable to a slightly smaller swing - though vulnerability is a relative term. The notional Conservative majority was still nearly 20,000. Nevertheless this brought it just within range of the massive pro-Labour swing of over 18% recorded in July 2024, and they recorded their first ever win in NW Cambridgeshire, albeit by only 39 votes, the third closest of their 411 victories. This sent to Westminster Sam Carling - the youngest of all the 333 brand new MPs and of the 650 members of the House, elected at just 22 years and less than 3 months.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.7% 425/575
Owner occupied 64.2% 328/575
Private rented 21.0% 180/575
Social rented 14.8% 299/575
White 86.8% 333/575
Black 3.7% 162/575
Asian 5.0% 267/575
Managerial & professional 34.3% 250/575
Routine & Semi-routine 25.3% 225/575
Degree level 30.0% 340/575
No qualifications 17.4% 312/575
Students 5.2% 356/575
General Election 2024: North West Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Sam Carling 14,785 33.3 +9.6
Conservative Shailesh Vara 14,746 33.2 −26.8
Reform UK James Sidlow 8,741 19.7 +19.6
Liberal Democrats Bridget Smith 3,192 7.2 –3.8
Green Elliot Tong 2,960 6.7 +1.5
Lab Majority 39 0.1 N/A
Turnout 44,424 58.5 –5.4
Registered electors 75,915
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing C to Lab 18.2
General Election 2019: North West Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Shailesh Vara 40,307 62.5 +3.9
Labour Cathy Cordiner-Achenbach 14,324 22.2 -8.3
Liberal Democrats Bridget Smith 6,881 10.7 +5.7
Green Nicola Day 3,021 4.7 +2.7
C Majority 25,983 40.3 +12.2
2019 electorate 94,909
Turnout 64,533 68.0 -0.8
Conservative hold Swing
6.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new boundaries of NW Cambridgeshire comprised
75.8% of NW Cambridgeshire
1.3% of Peterborough
Notional Result 2019
Most of its electorate came from John Major’s formerly swollen Huntingdon constituency, which boasted 93,000 electors in 1992. In addition to the 40,000 voters from the former Huntingdon, NW Cambridgeshire was given the four wards of the Peterborough seat south of the River Nene. It is indeed strongly influenced by that large town, for the old Huntingdon stretched to curl round Peterborough taking in some of its suburbs to the south, west and even north, around Glinton. The intervening boundary review, which came into force in 2010, had only minor impact here.
The 2023 review changes were again substantial, but NW Cambridgeshire returned one of the largest Conservative majorities, reaching seventeen votes short of 26,000, in December 2019, though its massive electorate (94,909 at that election) meant that it only reached 80th in their list of safe seats by percentage majority; that would still mean a swing of over 20.1% would be required for Labour to take it, which normally does not happen outside byelection circumstances.
This is not to say that this constituency reaches extremes in its social, economic and demographic variables. It is close to average in its proportion of owner occupied housing, those educated to at least degree level, and not far above average for the percentage of professional and managerial workers, in fact further above average for routine and semi-routine jobs. The pattern does not fit that of a rural constituency. The age profile is decidedly younger than average, and it has more Black and Asian residents than the norm. There are some ‘ordinary’ neighbourhoods here. Within Peterborough (south of the Nene) lie the rather working class Stanground, and Fletton (Old and New) with its terraced housing and the London Road stadium of Peterborough FC, set in distinctly unglamorous environs. The boundaries here approach the city centre closely, and indeed this is an ‘inner urban’ section. Labour won Fletton & Woodston in May 2023 the most recent local elections n Peterborough) but the Tories held Stanground South.
Nor are the more modern post New Town designation (1964) neighbourhoods west of the Nene Parkway consistently up-market. These include the Ortons – Waterville, Longueville, Brimbles, Malborne, Goldhay, Southgate – mixed class and mixed housing tenure, with substantial social rented estates in the Orton Malbourne and Goldhay MSOA in the 2021 census, for example. The Ortons are not safe for the Conservative party. In May 2023 (the Greens were overwhelmingly successful in Waterville with 70% of the vote in a four way party contest; they also gained Longueville, which has a history including victory for UKIP in 2016. The new development south and south west of Peterborough is continuing, and generating new wards beyond Fletton Parkway such as Hargate & Hempstead and Hampton Vale, which is not fully built and generated only a little over 1,000 votes in 2023 (the Liberal Democrats won).
Although the (mainly newish) suburbs of Peterborough comprise over half of the electorate of NW Cambridgeshire, and growing, they are only a small part of its geographical area – which is what justifies the name of the seat in the eyes of the Commission. Its western half currently runs along both sides of the A1 (in the southern half here A1M) for over 20 miles. At the northern end this reaches as far as the Burghley Park historic base of the Cecil family, originally ministers of Elizabeth I, just outside Stamford in Lincolnshire; then moving southwards, Wittering with its operative RAF station, and Wansford, an old coaching stop with its Haycock Inn hotel. South of the latitude of Peterborough is Stilton village, which gave its name to the cheese but oddly is not now licensed to make it, as from 1996 three counties received Protected Geographic Status (Derby, Leicester, Nottingham) – but not Cambridgeshire. Then finally the A1 bypasses Sawtry on its way into Huntingdon constituency.
Meanwhile, in the eastern half of the constituency we find the expanded village of Yaxley, a fair chunk of Fen country around small town of Ramsey, originally a Benedictine monastic foundation in the 10th century and dominated by its abbey until the Dissolution, and the large village of Warboys. All these communities lie in the local authority district of Huntingdonshire – and all were easily won by the Conservatives when they were most recently up for election in May 2022 (even being unopposed in Sawtry), with the solitary exception that one Independent defeated the third Tory in Yaxley ward. Up in the rural north west of the Peterborough council area, so thinly populated that there aren’t elections every May, last time they were contested the Tories held Wittering and Glinton, the latter very comfortably indeed.
Overall, then, the recent electoral pattern of NW Cambridgeshire has been that the Conservatives built up massive majorities in the countryside wards, while the ‘urban Peterborough’ half was much more mixed. In its first two contests in 1997 and 2001 Labour achieved a share of over 30% and kept the majority of Sir Brian Mawhinney down to around 8,000. However since then the Tory lead has essentially been rising inexorably, with only a slight blip in 2017. What is more, their proportion of the votes cast has also risen for four elections in a row (including in 2017) to reach 62.8% in 2019. In the last two elections other parties have performed poorly, though the Liberal Democrats finished second in 2010 and UKIP did in 2015 – the seat is estimated to have voted 57% to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum, not as emphatic a verdict as many in the Eastern region but more clear than the national average. The ‘European factor’ will have played a significant part in the swing from Labour to Conservative of over 6% in the general election in December 2019.
In the boundary changes, the more rural section was reduced and the influence of the still-growing Peterborough portion increased. By the time the Commission started its work, the electorate of this constituency had ballooned further to 95,684, one of the five highest in the United Kingdom (only Isle of Wight, Bristol West, West Ham and Milton Keynes SW were larger in 2019). Their proposals, as confirmed in the final report of June 2023, recommended that the Huntingdonshire district wards of Holywell-cum-Needingworth, Somersham, Warboys, and Sawtry be transferred to the proposed Huntingdon division.
This added up to around 19,200 mainly rural electors, accounting for 24% of the existing NW Cambridgeshire seat. This meant that it was even more influenced by the built up area of Peterborough, but in stark contrast to the Commissions’ naming policy elsewhere, that city still does not get a mention in the title. (Contrast, for example, Reading West & Mid Berkshire, and Romsey & Southampton North, both of which include far less of the named urban unit and do not approach the city/town centre as closely as this one does). This seat is definitely Peterborough South & NW Cambridgeshire. Or, as that is indeed a mouthful, just Peterborough South, given that urban wards make up well over half the electorate. Although the seat has been established for a quarter of a century now, it still feels (both on current and the suggested future boundaries) like a ‘bits and pieces’ constituency. Bits of true-blue countryside, pieces of Peterborough. Speaking of blue, suggestions that the seat might be renamed Stilton and Peterborough South failed to to mature and be consumed by the Boundary Commission with relish.
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_084_North%20West%20Cambridgeshire_Landscape.pdf
The political effect was to reduce the huge majority Shailesh Vara had in December 2019, and also make the seat vulnerable to a slightly smaller swing - though vulnerability is a relative term. The notional Conservative majority was still nearly 20,000. Nevertheless this brought it just within range of the massive pro-Labour swing of over 18% recorded in July 2024, and they recorded their first ever win in NW Cambridgeshire, albeit by only 39 votes, the third closest of their 411 victories. This sent to Westminster Sam Carling - the youngest of all the 333 brand new MPs and of the 650 members of the House, elected at just 22 years and less than 3 months.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 15.7% 425/575
Owner occupied 64.2% 328/575
Private rented 21.0% 180/575
Social rented 14.8% 299/575
White 86.8% 333/575
Black 3.7% 162/575
Asian 5.0% 267/575
Managerial & professional 34.3% 250/575
Routine & Semi-routine 25.3% 225/575
Degree level 30.0% 340/575
No qualifications 17.4% 312/575
Students 5.2% 356/575
General Election 2024: North West Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Sam Carling 14,785 33.3 +9.6
Conservative Shailesh Vara 14,746 33.2 −26.8
Reform UK James Sidlow 8,741 19.7 +19.6
Liberal Democrats Bridget Smith 3,192 7.2 –3.8
Green Elliot Tong 2,960 6.7 +1.5
Lab Majority 39 0.1 N/A
Turnout 44,424 58.5 –5.4
Registered electors 75,915
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing C to Lab 18.2
General Election 2019: North West Cambridgeshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Shailesh Vara 40,307 62.5 +3.9
Labour Cathy Cordiner-Achenbach 14,324 22.2 -8.3
Liberal Democrats Bridget Smith 6,881 10.7 +5.7
Green Nicola Day 3,021 4.7 +2.7
C Majority 25,983 40.3 +12.2
2019 electorate 94,909
Turnout 64,533 68.0 -0.8
Conservative hold Swing
6.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new boundaries of NW Cambridgeshire comprised
75.8% of NW Cambridgeshire
1.3% of Peterborough
Notional Result 2019
| Con | 28201 | 60.0% |
| Lab | 11169 | 23.8% |
| LD | 5173 | 11.0% |
| Grn | 2464 | 5.2% |
| Brexit | 25 | 0.1% |
| Majority | 17032 | 36.2% |
