Post by Robert Waller on Sept 4, 2023 20:11:29 GMT
This seat in the county of Lancashire was created in 1983 from what might appear to be a merger of the two undersized former constituencies referenced in its name, though in fact it did not include all the territory in either. Rossendale had long been a classic marginal between the two ‘governing’ parties, but Darwen had never been won by Labour. Between 1929 and 1935 it was the seat of Sir Herbert Samuel, the leader of what at the time was one of no fewer than three competing Liberal party factions, but from 1935 through to 1979 it had always been Conservative, including in 1945 and 1966. It was likely therefore that Rossendale and Darwen would be a Tory inclined seat with outside Labour chances, but in fact the only time it has been won by other than the winning party in the whole general election was in 1992, when Labour’s Janet Anderson gained it, albeit by a slender margin of 120 votes. Overall, therefore it has been close to the national norm, though in 2019 the present incumbent Jake Berry benefited from a positive swing of over 6% which meant its result was significantly on the Conservative side of average. This is likely to be because it was also on the Brexit side of average, with a Leave vote estimated at 59%.
There is no town called Rossendale, but it is definitely an identifiable entity. The Rossendale valley runs west-east between the small towns of Rawtenstall and Bacup, and the borough of the same name is a compact unit, with good internal lines of communication along a group of east Lancashire Pennine valleys. Once economically based on cotton mills, then later heavily involved in boot and shoe manufacturing (particularly specializing in some communities in slippers), from Rawtenstall at their heart the valleys ran west to Haslingden, east to Bacup, south to Ramsbottom, north towards Burnley. Rather as in South Wales, distinct communities lay along the valleys like beads on a chain, places like Waterfoot and Stacksteads (between Rawtenstall and Bacup), Crawshawbooth and Lumb and Love Clough (between Rawtenstall and Burnley). These industrial communities were once divided between church and chapel, largely Conservative and Liberal respectively*, but they have now come to be very closely contested between Labour and Conservative – there are very few safe wards, and each community is a microcosm of political as well as economic and social competition.
In May 2023 of the eleven Rossendale wards in this seat (the two Haslingden wards are in the Hyndburn constituency) and contested that year, two were won by the Conservatives: Helmshore, south-west of Haslingden and one of the best commuting bases for Manchester, and Facit & Shawforth in the Whitworth valley in te south-east of the constituency. Seven were taken by Labour that year - including all of those in Rawtenstall and Bacup - one by local independents (Healey & Whitworth) and one by the Greens (Whitewell, the north-south valley of the Whitewell Brook including the villages of Water and Lumb, that runs onto the Irwell at Waterfoot) - most of these being fairly close and competitive. Labour had a clear advantage on 2023, an(other) annus horribilis for the Conservatives, and overall in the Rossendale & Darwen constituency Labour led by 45% to 36% for the Tories. The marginality and volatility of the Rossendale area is however shown by and almost even split in the May 2021 Lancashire county council elections (Labour by three divisions to two, all close). Rossendale is still a well balanced two-party contest.
The reason why the Darwen seat was consistently Tory was not so much because of the eponymous town, which is another product of Lancashire’s Industrial Revolution history – its presence at the core of that mighty development is indicated by the fact that Darwen Football Club were elected to the Football League in 1891, when there were only fourteen teams, although after an undistinguished record they departed to ‘non-league’ just before the century was out. Darwen was the chosen destination for Gandhi’s visit to the ‘cotton north’ in 1931 and still looks the part of the ex-mill town (and sounds it too, with the rich east Lancashire accent of the ‘Darreners’). It was the rural hinterland in the former Blackburn Rural District and the former Turton Urban District that tipped the balance of Darwen to the Conservatives before 1983, but most of Turton’s population was placed in Bolton Metropolitan Borough, and some of Blackburn Rural District in Ribble Valley. In the May 2023 Blackburn and Darwen local elections the three Darwen divisions, which still include some rural areas, were all won by Labour, with Darwen South being a gain from the Conservatives.
Recent parliamentary contests in Rossendale and Darwen have seemed in some ways like a throwback to the era of strict two party politics. 93.5% of the votes cast in December 2019 were shared between Labour and Conservative, one of the highest figures anywhere. The Liberal Democrats have performed very weakly in the last three elections: 1.6% in 2015, 3.1% in 2017, 4.1% in 2019 – they have little in the way of a local government base and are squeezed by the constituency’s traditional marginality. Even though parts of the Rossendale area in particular have become fashionable for commuters down the M66, the old-fashioned feel is confirmed by a tour of this neck of the woods. Unlike Burnley, Pendle and even Hyndburn, there is not a substantial Asian population, even in pockets; Rossendale and Darwen is over 95% white. In Rawtenstall can be found Fitzpatrick’s, which advertises itself as Britain’s last ever temperance bar, featuring the delights of sarsaparilla and dandelion and burdock, and still proudly extant as the year 2023 drew towards its close.
The boundary changes in the 2023 review are confined to aligning the seat with the current ward boundaries; in particular the whole of the Blackburn South & Lower Darwen ward is to be included. That sounds a grander addition than it is, as only a small sliver of the southern edge of Blackburn is in the ward (which elected a Conservative with a 56% share in a straight fight with Labour in May 2023). Overall there will be no significant electoral impact of the minor changes.
Although 116th on Labour’s target list after 2019, one feels that this seat is one that they need to target in order again to form the government of the land, after sober consideration of why 2019 was their worst ever result here – and that includes the Thatcher landslide year of 1983. Recent local government election evidence suggests they have a good chance to d so, though it is likely to be no more a walkover than so many of the constituent wards are, in this archetypal and marginal slice of ‘middle England in the north’.
*Both my parents were from Rossendale, and my mother, culturally chapel and born in 1914, remembered the bifurcation between chapel Liberals and church Conservatives at election time in the 1920s. Her father was the ‘chapel’ GP for their community (Crawshawbooth, in Cribden ward now), just as there was a GP for the ‘church’ goers. On his death in 1936, apparently half the village lined the streets for his funeral cortege.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.9% 304/575
Owner occupied 68.8% 213/575
Private rented 18.0% 294/575
Social rented 13.2% 372/575
White 94.3% 208/575
Black 0.3% 512/575
Asian 3.6% 315/575
Managerial & professional 32.2% 297/575
Routine & Semi-routine 25.1% 235/575
Degree level 30.8% 320/575
No qualifications 18.2% 255/575
Students 5.5% 302/575
General Election 2019: Rossendale and Darwen
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jake Berry 27,570 56.5 +5.7
Labour Alyson Barnes 18,048 37.0 −7.4
Liberal Democrats Paul Valentine 2,011 4.1 +1.0
Green Sarah Hall 1,193 2.4 +0.8
C Majority 9,522 19.5 +13.1
Turnout 48,822 67.1 −2.1
Conservative hold Swing +6.5
Boundary changes
The new Rossendale & Darwen will consist of
99.5% of Rossendale & Darwen
2.6% of Blackburn
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_261_Rossendale%20and%20Darwen_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
There is no town called Rossendale, but it is definitely an identifiable entity. The Rossendale valley runs west-east between the small towns of Rawtenstall and Bacup, and the borough of the same name is a compact unit, with good internal lines of communication along a group of east Lancashire Pennine valleys. Once economically based on cotton mills, then later heavily involved in boot and shoe manufacturing (particularly specializing in some communities in slippers), from Rawtenstall at their heart the valleys ran west to Haslingden, east to Bacup, south to Ramsbottom, north towards Burnley. Rather as in South Wales, distinct communities lay along the valleys like beads on a chain, places like Waterfoot and Stacksteads (between Rawtenstall and Bacup), Crawshawbooth and Lumb and Love Clough (between Rawtenstall and Burnley). These industrial communities were once divided between church and chapel, largely Conservative and Liberal respectively*, but they have now come to be very closely contested between Labour and Conservative – there are very few safe wards, and each community is a microcosm of political as well as economic and social competition.
In May 2023 of the eleven Rossendale wards in this seat (the two Haslingden wards are in the Hyndburn constituency) and contested that year, two were won by the Conservatives: Helmshore, south-west of Haslingden and one of the best commuting bases for Manchester, and Facit & Shawforth in the Whitworth valley in te south-east of the constituency. Seven were taken by Labour that year - including all of those in Rawtenstall and Bacup - one by local independents (Healey & Whitworth) and one by the Greens (Whitewell, the north-south valley of the Whitewell Brook including the villages of Water and Lumb, that runs onto the Irwell at Waterfoot) - most of these being fairly close and competitive. Labour had a clear advantage on 2023, an(other) annus horribilis for the Conservatives, and overall in the Rossendale & Darwen constituency Labour led by 45% to 36% for the Tories. The marginality and volatility of the Rossendale area is however shown by and almost even split in the May 2021 Lancashire county council elections (Labour by three divisions to two, all close). Rossendale is still a well balanced two-party contest.
The reason why the Darwen seat was consistently Tory was not so much because of the eponymous town, which is another product of Lancashire’s Industrial Revolution history – its presence at the core of that mighty development is indicated by the fact that Darwen Football Club were elected to the Football League in 1891, when there were only fourteen teams, although after an undistinguished record they departed to ‘non-league’ just before the century was out. Darwen was the chosen destination for Gandhi’s visit to the ‘cotton north’ in 1931 and still looks the part of the ex-mill town (and sounds it too, with the rich east Lancashire accent of the ‘Darreners’). It was the rural hinterland in the former Blackburn Rural District and the former Turton Urban District that tipped the balance of Darwen to the Conservatives before 1983, but most of Turton’s population was placed in Bolton Metropolitan Borough, and some of Blackburn Rural District in Ribble Valley. In the May 2023 Blackburn and Darwen local elections the three Darwen divisions, which still include some rural areas, were all won by Labour, with Darwen South being a gain from the Conservatives.
Recent parliamentary contests in Rossendale and Darwen have seemed in some ways like a throwback to the era of strict two party politics. 93.5% of the votes cast in December 2019 were shared between Labour and Conservative, one of the highest figures anywhere. The Liberal Democrats have performed very weakly in the last three elections: 1.6% in 2015, 3.1% in 2017, 4.1% in 2019 – they have little in the way of a local government base and are squeezed by the constituency’s traditional marginality. Even though parts of the Rossendale area in particular have become fashionable for commuters down the M66, the old-fashioned feel is confirmed by a tour of this neck of the woods. Unlike Burnley, Pendle and even Hyndburn, there is not a substantial Asian population, even in pockets; Rossendale and Darwen is over 95% white. In Rawtenstall can be found Fitzpatrick’s, which advertises itself as Britain’s last ever temperance bar, featuring the delights of sarsaparilla and dandelion and burdock, and still proudly extant as the year 2023 drew towards its close.
The boundary changes in the 2023 review are confined to aligning the seat with the current ward boundaries; in particular the whole of the Blackburn South & Lower Darwen ward is to be included. That sounds a grander addition than it is, as only a small sliver of the southern edge of Blackburn is in the ward (which elected a Conservative with a 56% share in a straight fight with Labour in May 2023). Overall there will be no significant electoral impact of the minor changes.
Although 116th on Labour’s target list after 2019, one feels that this seat is one that they need to target in order again to form the government of the land, after sober consideration of why 2019 was their worst ever result here – and that includes the Thatcher landslide year of 1983. Recent local government election evidence suggests they have a good chance to d so, though it is likely to be no more a walkover than so many of the constituent wards are, in this archetypal and marginal slice of ‘middle England in the north’.
*Both my parents were from Rossendale, and my mother, culturally chapel and born in 1914, remembered the bifurcation between chapel Liberals and church Conservatives at election time in the 1920s. Her father was the ‘chapel’ GP for their community (Crawshawbooth, in Cribden ward now), just as there was a GP for the ‘church’ goers. On his death in 1936, apparently half the village lined the streets for his funeral cortege.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.9% 304/575
Owner occupied 68.8% 213/575
Private rented 18.0% 294/575
Social rented 13.2% 372/575
White 94.3% 208/575
Black 0.3% 512/575
Asian 3.6% 315/575
Managerial & professional 32.2% 297/575
Routine & Semi-routine 25.1% 235/575
Degree level 30.8% 320/575
No qualifications 18.2% 255/575
Students 5.5% 302/575
General Election 2019: Rossendale and Darwen
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Jake Berry 27,570 56.5 +5.7
Labour Alyson Barnes 18,048 37.0 −7.4
Liberal Democrats Paul Valentine 2,011 4.1 +1.0
Green Sarah Hall 1,193 2.4 +0.8
C Majority 9,522 19.5 +13.1
Turnout 48,822 67.1 −2.1
Conservative hold Swing +6.5
Boundary changes
The new Rossendale & Darwen will consist of
99.5% of Rossendale & Darwen
2.6% of Blackburn
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_261_Rossendale%20and%20Darwen_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 28124 | 56.4% |
| Lab | 18290 | 36.6% |
| LD | 2083 | 4.2% |
| Green | 1236 | 2.5% |
| Brexit | 180 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 9834 | 19.7% |