Post by Robert Waller on Sept 4, 2023 9:24:42 GMT
The Boundary Commission has had a tendency to name constituencies in Nottinghamshire after ancient administrative divisions such as hundreds, or rather wapentakes, as the county was once situated in the Danelaw rather than under continuous Anglo-Saxon sovereignty. Therefore we currently have Rushcliffe and Bassetlaw as well as Broxtowe. There is no single community of that name. What makes the position even more confusing here is that from 1918 to 1955 there was a former incarnation of a Broxtowe seat, which only had a minority of territory in common with the current one and which was in fact more similar to the present Ashfield.
The division under discussion here has been closely based since its inception in 1983 on the borough of Broxtowe, which has existed since 1974, and which was in turn largely based on the former urban district of Beeston and Stapleford; which to make matters even more confusing, was until 1974 the largest single component of a very different Rushcliffe seat from the current one – indeed it was marginal rather than forming the safe Conservative base for Kenneth Clarke that it proved to be for the best part of 50 years.
In case anyone still has the will to live, it is also true that between 1974 and 1983 this constituency’s name was plain Beeston, which was in all probability its clearest form. What is sure is that Broxtowe is a Conservative-Labour marginal. It was won by Tony Blair’s New Labour from 1997 to 2010, and by the Tories between 1983 and 1992 and since 2010. It has therefore been won each time by whichever party became the largest in the Commons and formed a government. In 2019 the Conservative majority over Labour was 9.6% compared with 11.5% nationally. It is therefore still close to the two-party average position.
The current Broxtowe essentially covers the western suburbs of the city of Nottingham, stretching (not very far) to the border with Derbyshire. It is therefore the mirror of Gedling, which plays a similar role to the east of the urban Nottingham core. One of the reasons why Nottingham has three safe Labour seats at present is because of the way the middle class owner occupied residential peripheral zone is outside the borders of the city – the same applies to the south where such famed Nottingham sporting venues as Trent Bridge cricket ground and the ground of former footballing greats Nottingham Forest are both in fact in the Rushcliffe district and constituency.
Broxtowe has an above average proportion of owner occupied housing, a far lower ethnic minority presence than Nottingham itself, and is distinctly above average in its share of professional and managerial workers and those with high educational qualifications. The latter is influenced by the presence of the main University of Nottingham campus just over the border from Beeston North ward; in fact the Broxtowe seat was in the top five per cent of seats for employment in education in the most recent available census. This may influence the fact that the Conservative members who have won here have tended to the left of the party – Jim Lester (up to 1997), who passed away fairly recently, was well known as someone who got on well personally with a wide strand of political opinion, while Anna Soubry (2010-19) was not exactly that, but an aggressive pro-European who ended here by standing for the Independent Group for Change in 2019. Labour’s Nick Palmer (1997-2010) was notably open to discussion on one of the rival internet sites to this one.
Of course, like all constituencies, there are variations within Broxtowe. The constituency covers a number of different communities of which Beeston is only the largest. In the May 2021 Nottinghamshire county council elections, Labour won the Beeston Central & Rylands division by nearly two to one from the Tories – this being an amalgam of their strongest wards on the district council. Stapleford & Broxtowe Central split its representation between the two largest parties. However the Liberal Democrats, not a factor at parliamentary level, did win Bramcote & Beeston North, the division nearest to Nottingham University campus, easily in 2021. The Conservatives were narrowly ahead of Labour in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough – and more comfortably in the Nuthall & Kimberley division.
This reflects the situation on Broxtowe council too, but with the Conservatives losing 10 seats in the May 2023 elections, and Labour picking up 12, including a couple from the Liberal Democrats. Labour are now comfortably the largest party and in sole control after a period of coalition with Liberal Democrats and Independents. Generally, the Tories do best in the more rural areas and villages, which are mainly in effect suburban commuting bases for Nottingham: Watnall, Nuthall, Strelley, Awsworth, and Cossall. The small town of Kimberley does not have a diamond mine, unlike its better known offspring in South Africa, but it did historically have coalmining (Kimberley Colliery itself closed as far back as 1896) and a brewery (which closed in 2006). Labour’s gains from the Tories included Attenborough & Chilwell East, Kimberley, and one in Toton & Chilwell Meadows (where the Conservative group leader Richard Jackson lost his seat on a tiebreak), and from the LDs in Stapleford SE. However the Lib Dems have retained the more intellectual wards of Bramcote (49% with degrees in its 2021 census MSOA) and Beeston North (43%). Labour do best in Beeston Central, West and Beeston Rylands, and in parts of the more working-class Stapleford.
In the forthcoming boundary changes,there are quite significant changes. The proposals remove some of the Tory villages, Nuthall, Strelley and Watnall, along with Kimberley, to a Nottingham North & Kimberley division. This adds up to about 17.5% of the current Broxtowe. In exchange, territory to the north of the present seat boundary is moved in from Ashfield; this includes the rural Brinsley and the whole of Greasley ward, but is in essence more the community of Eastwood, ex-mining and forever associated with its most famous son D.H.Lawrence.
Eastwood is not as strongly Labour as it once was - for example the Conservatives won the Eastwood division in the most recent Nottinghamshire County Council elections in 2021 - but it is certainly more Labour than the territory moved out of the Broxtowe seat. In May 2023 Labour won both Eastwood wards on Broxtowe council, gaining Eastwood Hilltop, an Independent took Brinsley and the Tories Greasley. The boundary changes shift all the demographic indicators in the more working class direction, and the new Broxtowe has a surprisingly ‘old’ age profile for a seat known for its proximity to a major university. This aspect also declined with the boundary changes. Therefore, although notionally all of the 5,331 majority of the 2019 Conservative victor Darren Henry was not be wiped out, some of it was, with the confirmation of the proposals in the final Commission report of June 2023. Broxtowe was still a key marginal, and now one high on Labour’s target list - but probably now slightly canted to Labour from its previous super-bellwether status. Labour duly regained in July 2024, though with a somewhat smaller swing than in some of the more working class seats it won that year, such as Mansfield and Bassetlaw further north in Nottinghamshire.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.7% 180/575
Owner occupied 70.5% 166/575
Private rented 18.1% 291/575
Social rented 11.4% 458/575
White 89.0% 307/575
Black 1.6% 257/575
Asian 5.4% 253/575
Managerial & professional 35.3% 214/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.7% 289/575
Degree level 34.6% 220/575
No qualifications 17.4% 316/575
Students 8.2% 145/575
General Election 2024: Broxtowe
Labour Juliet Campbell 19,561 40.9 +2.9
Conservative Darren Henry 11,158 23.3 −21.9
Reform UK Joseph Oakley 8,402 17.6 +16.9
Liberal Democrats James Collis 3,807 8.0 +7.5
Green Teresa Needham 3,488 7.3 +4.3
Independent John Doddy 1,034 2.2 N/A
Workers Party Masqood Syed 388 0.8 N/A
Lab Majority 8,403 17.6 N/A
Turnout 47,838 66.5 −9.7
Registered electors 71,923
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 12.4 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Broxtowe
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Darren Henry 26,602 48.1 +1.3
Labour Greg Marshall 21,271 38.5 −6.8
The Independent Group for Change Anna Soubry 4,668 8.5 New
Green Kat Boettge 1,806 3.3 +2.1
English Democrat Amy Dalla Mura 432 0.8 New
Independent Teck Khong 321 0.6 New
Militant Elvis Anti-HS2 David Bishop 172 0.3 New
C Majority 5,331 9.6 +8.1
Turnout 55,272 75.7 +0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Broxtowe will consist of
82.4% of Broxtowe
14.5% of Ashfield
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_006_Broxtowe_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The division under discussion here has been closely based since its inception in 1983 on the borough of Broxtowe, which has existed since 1974, and which was in turn largely based on the former urban district of Beeston and Stapleford; which to make matters even more confusing, was until 1974 the largest single component of a very different Rushcliffe seat from the current one – indeed it was marginal rather than forming the safe Conservative base for Kenneth Clarke that it proved to be for the best part of 50 years.
In case anyone still has the will to live, it is also true that between 1974 and 1983 this constituency’s name was plain Beeston, which was in all probability its clearest form. What is sure is that Broxtowe is a Conservative-Labour marginal. It was won by Tony Blair’s New Labour from 1997 to 2010, and by the Tories between 1983 and 1992 and since 2010. It has therefore been won each time by whichever party became the largest in the Commons and formed a government. In 2019 the Conservative majority over Labour was 9.6% compared with 11.5% nationally. It is therefore still close to the two-party average position.
The current Broxtowe essentially covers the western suburbs of the city of Nottingham, stretching (not very far) to the border with Derbyshire. It is therefore the mirror of Gedling, which plays a similar role to the east of the urban Nottingham core. One of the reasons why Nottingham has three safe Labour seats at present is because of the way the middle class owner occupied residential peripheral zone is outside the borders of the city – the same applies to the south where such famed Nottingham sporting venues as Trent Bridge cricket ground and the ground of former footballing greats Nottingham Forest are both in fact in the Rushcliffe district and constituency.
Broxtowe has an above average proportion of owner occupied housing, a far lower ethnic minority presence than Nottingham itself, and is distinctly above average in its share of professional and managerial workers and those with high educational qualifications. The latter is influenced by the presence of the main University of Nottingham campus just over the border from Beeston North ward; in fact the Broxtowe seat was in the top five per cent of seats for employment in education in the most recent available census. This may influence the fact that the Conservative members who have won here have tended to the left of the party – Jim Lester (up to 1997), who passed away fairly recently, was well known as someone who got on well personally with a wide strand of political opinion, while Anna Soubry (2010-19) was not exactly that, but an aggressive pro-European who ended here by standing for the Independent Group for Change in 2019. Labour’s Nick Palmer (1997-2010) was notably open to discussion on one of the rival internet sites to this one.
Of course, like all constituencies, there are variations within Broxtowe. The constituency covers a number of different communities of which Beeston is only the largest. In the May 2021 Nottinghamshire county council elections, Labour won the Beeston Central & Rylands division by nearly two to one from the Tories – this being an amalgam of their strongest wards on the district council. Stapleford & Broxtowe Central split its representation between the two largest parties. However the Liberal Democrats, not a factor at parliamentary level, did win Bramcote & Beeston North, the division nearest to Nottingham University campus, easily in 2021. The Conservatives were narrowly ahead of Labour in Toton, Chilwell & Attenborough – and more comfortably in the Nuthall & Kimberley division.
This reflects the situation on Broxtowe council too, but with the Conservatives losing 10 seats in the May 2023 elections, and Labour picking up 12, including a couple from the Liberal Democrats. Labour are now comfortably the largest party and in sole control after a period of coalition with Liberal Democrats and Independents. Generally, the Tories do best in the more rural areas and villages, which are mainly in effect suburban commuting bases for Nottingham: Watnall, Nuthall, Strelley, Awsworth, and Cossall. The small town of Kimberley does not have a diamond mine, unlike its better known offspring in South Africa, but it did historically have coalmining (Kimberley Colliery itself closed as far back as 1896) and a brewery (which closed in 2006). Labour’s gains from the Tories included Attenborough & Chilwell East, Kimberley, and one in Toton & Chilwell Meadows (where the Conservative group leader Richard Jackson lost his seat on a tiebreak), and from the LDs in Stapleford SE. However the Lib Dems have retained the more intellectual wards of Bramcote (49% with degrees in its 2021 census MSOA) and Beeston North (43%). Labour do best in Beeston Central, West and Beeston Rylands, and in parts of the more working-class Stapleford.
In the forthcoming boundary changes,there are quite significant changes. The proposals remove some of the Tory villages, Nuthall, Strelley and Watnall, along with Kimberley, to a Nottingham North & Kimberley division. This adds up to about 17.5% of the current Broxtowe. In exchange, territory to the north of the present seat boundary is moved in from Ashfield; this includes the rural Brinsley and the whole of Greasley ward, but is in essence more the community of Eastwood, ex-mining and forever associated with its most famous son D.H.Lawrence.
Eastwood is not as strongly Labour as it once was - for example the Conservatives won the Eastwood division in the most recent Nottinghamshire County Council elections in 2021 - but it is certainly more Labour than the territory moved out of the Broxtowe seat. In May 2023 Labour won both Eastwood wards on Broxtowe council, gaining Eastwood Hilltop, an Independent took Brinsley and the Tories Greasley. The boundary changes shift all the demographic indicators in the more working class direction, and the new Broxtowe has a surprisingly ‘old’ age profile for a seat known for its proximity to a major university. This aspect also declined with the boundary changes. Therefore, although notionally all of the 5,331 majority of the 2019 Conservative victor Darren Henry was not be wiped out, some of it was, with the confirmation of the proposals in the final Commission report of June 2023. Broxtowe was still a key marginal, and now one high on Labour’s target list - but probably now slightly canted to Labour from its previous super-bellwether status. Labour duly regained in July 2024, though with a somewhat smaller swing than in some of the more working class seats it won that year, such as Mansfield and Bassetlaw further north in Nottinghamshire.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.7% 180/575
Owner occupied 70.5% 166/575
Private rented 18.1% 291/575
Social rented 11.4% 458/575
White 89.0% 307/575
Black 1.6% 257/575
Asian 5.4% 253/575
Managerial & professional 35.3% 214/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.7% 289/575
Degree level 34.6% 220/575
No qualifications 17.4% 316/575
Students 8.2% 145/575
General Election 2024: Broxtowe
Labour Juliet Campbell 19,561 40.9 +2.9
Conservative Darren Henry 11,158 23.3 −21.9
Reform UK Joseph Oakley 8,402 17.6 +16.9
Liberal Democrats James Collis 3,807 8.0 +7.5
Green Teresa Needham 3,488 7.3 +4.3
Independent John Doddy 1,034 2.2 N/A
Workers Party Masqood Syed 388 0.8 N/A
Lab Majority 8,403 17.6 N/A
Turnout 47,838 66.5 −9.7
Registered electors 71,923
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 12.4 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Broxtowe
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Darren Henry 26,602 48.1 +1.3
Labour Greg Marshall 21,271 38.5 −6.8
The Independent Group for Change Anna Soubry 4,668 8.5 New
Green Kat Boettge 1,806 3.3 +2.1
English Democrat Amy Dalla Mura 432 0.8 New
Independent Teck Khong 321 0.6 New
Militant Elvis Anti-HS2 David Bishop 172 0.3 New
C Majority 5,331 9.6 +8.1
Turnout 55,272 75.7 +0.7
Conservative hold
Swing 4.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Broxtowe will consist of
82.4% of Broxtowe
14.5% of Ashfield
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_006_Broxtowe_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 24083 | 45.2% |
| Lab | 20264 | 38.0% |
| Ind Soubry | 3846 | 7.2% |
| Ashf Ind | 1963 | 3.7% |
| Green | 1606 | 3.0% |
| Brexit | 364 | 0.7% |
| LD | 270 | 0.5% |
| Oths | 925 | 1.7% |
| Con Majority | 3819 | 7.2% |
