batman
Labour
Posts: 8,985
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Post by batman on Sept 29, 2023 8:21:16 GMT
Yes indeed, there is no way that a swing of 2.6% can be accurately described as big. Perhaps Sunak's presence locally has been a help to the Tories. After all when William Hague was the MP and was leading the Tories his personal results were very good. And of course the idea that almost all Green voters would have automatically transferred to the Lib Dems is arrant nonsense.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 29, 2023 8:26:22 GMT
Tain and Easter Ross By-Election - Live Count
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Post by andrewp on Sept 29, 2023 8:29:09 GMT
Yes indeed, there is no way that a swing of 2.6% can be accurately described as big. Perhaps Sunak's presence locally has been a help to the Tories. After all when William Hague was the MP and was leading the Tories his personal results were very good. And of course the idea that almost all Green voters would have automatically transferred to the Lib Dems is arrant nonsense. I think that as yellowperil alluded to, the 28.5% Independent vote last time for an ex Tory councillor is probably fairly safely assumed to be Tory leaning, at least ( which is why I predicted a Conservative hold) so one could summise that the Tories were starting from a likely much higher base than they were on paper, and the swing of people who have voted Tory in the past and voted Lib Dem this time was more than the pure swing. But we can’t be certain on any of that
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,209
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 29, 2023 8:29:11 GMT
Yes indeed, there is no way that a swing of 2.6% can be accurately described as big. Perhaps Sunak's presence locally has been a help to the Tories. After all when William Hague was the MP and was leading the Tories his personal results were very good. And of course the idea that almost all Green voters would have automatically transferred to the Lib Dems is arrant nonsense. Depends on whether you view the independent last time as a second Tory on the ballot - which I think is possible given that he was a former Tory county councillor, and was the Tory candidate this time. That *does* suggest a big fall in overall Tory vote. But they still won anyway.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,363
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Post by weld on Sept 29, 2023 9:02:14 GMT
If the Greens had followed Labour's example and withdrawn their candidate, N Yorks would be under No Overall Control. There's always one isn't there (well there's usually several). This particular twat has apparently been boycotting Twitter since October 2022.. I can't see the post you're quoting, but it's far-fetched of anyone to assume 'If the Greens had followed Labour's example and withdrawn their candidate, N Yorks would be under No Overall Control.'
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 29, 2023 9:48:19 GMT
Turnout is 34.4% in Tain and Easter Ross.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,708
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2023 9:51:20 GMT
Yes indeed, there is no way that a swing of 2.6% can be accurately described as big. Perhaps Sunak's presence locally has been a help to the Tories. After all when William Hague was the MP and was leading the Tories his personal results were very good. And of course the idea that almost all Green voters would have automatically transferred to the Lib Dems is arrant nonsense. I think that as yellowperil alluded to, the 28.5% Independent vote last time for an ex Tory councillor is probably fairly safely assumed to be Tory leaning, at least ( which is why I predicted a Conservative hold) so one could summise that the Tories were starting from a likely much higher base than they were on paper, and the swing of people who have voted Tory in the past and voted Lib Dem this time was more than the pure swing. But we can’t be certain on any of that I thought the Tories picking the candidate they did here might be a smart move, and so it seems to have proved.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 29, 2023 10:34:40 GMT
HIGHLAND Tain and Easter Ross
E. 7,226 BPs received 2,488 T'out 34.4% Rejected 25 Quota 1,232
ALLISON, Gordon (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 464 BARNETT, Andrew (Scottish Green Party) 56 CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian Party) 23 MORRISON, Veronica (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 207 PERERA, Michael (Scottish Labour Party) 88 ROSS, Maureen (Independent) 1,022 STEPHEN, Charles (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 603
Ross elected at stage 6.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 29, 2023 10:52:34 GMT
Wymondham South ward is a Liberal Democrat hold.
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Post by graham on Sept 29, 2023 10:56:20 GMT
HIGHLAND Tain and Easter Ross E. 7,226 BPs received 2,488 T'out 34.4% Rejected 25 Quota 1,232 ALLISON, Gordon (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 464 BARNETT, Andrew (Scottish Green Party) 56 CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian Party) 23 MORRISON, Veronica (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 207 PERERA, Michael (Scottish Labour Party) 88 ROSS, Maureen (Independent) 1,022 STEPHEN, Charles (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 603 Ross elected at stage 6. Prima facie that is not a good result for SNP. Not bad for LDs.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 29, 2023 11:02:07 GMT
HIGHLAND Tain and Easter Ross E. 7,226 BPs received 2,488 T'out 34.4% Rejected 25 Quota 1,232 ALLISON, Gordon (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 464 BARNETT, Andrew (Scottish Green Party) 56 CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian Party) 23 MORRISON, Veronica (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 207 PERERA, Michael (Scottish Labour Party) 88 ROSS, Maureen (Independent) 1,022 STEPHEN, Charles (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 603 Ross elected at stage 6. Prima facie that is not a good result for SNP. Not bad for LDs. GWBWI makes it -4 for LDm, -19 for SNP.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 29, 2023 11:15:00 GMT
Mulbarton and Stoke Holy Cross is also a LD hold.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 29, 2023 12:05:49 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Sept 29, 2023 12:07:26 GMT
South Norfolk Mulbarton and Holy Cross
LD 667 Con 434 No Description 404 Lab 164 Green 128
Percentages
LD 37.1% (-11.4) Con 24.2% (-10.8) ND 22.5% Lab 9.1% (-7.4) Green 7.1% new
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Post by andrewp on Sept 29, 2023 12:10:40 GMT
South Norfolk Wymondham South
LD 286 Con 268 Lab 173 Green 89
percentages
LD 35% (-12.4) Con 32.8% (+4.9) Lab 21.2% (-3.5) Green 10.9% new
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Post by andrewp on Sept 29, 2023 12:21:13 GMT
Numbers below updated following this weeks contests.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 28th September , there have now been 65 ordinary by elections since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 18- Held 5 and lost 13: 3 to the Greens, 5 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 28%) and have gained 5
Labour have defended 28- Held 19 and lost 9: 3 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 68%) and have gained 6
Lib Dem’s have defended 9: Held 7 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 78%) and have gained 8 Greens have defended 4: Held 2 and lost 2. 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5 Independents have defended 1. Held 1. And have gained 6 Residents have defended 1, held 1 SNP have defended 3 Lost 3, 1 to the Conservatives and 2 to Labour ( retention rate 0%) Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems
Overall net changes
Con -8 Lab -3 LD +6 Green +3 Ind + 6 SNP -3 Vectis -1
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 29, 2023 12:42:06 GMT
South Norfolk Wymondham South LD 286 Con 268 Lab 173 Green 89 percentages LD 35% (-12.4) Con 32.8% (+4.9) Lab 21.2% (-3.5) Green 10.9% new That is an interesting and rather good result for the Cons. One more push and they might have humped the damned LDs. What a pity!
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Post by greenman on Sept 29, 2023 14:56:32 GMT
For those of you who are interested this study 2009 by Elections British Columbia, Canada, indicates that only 32% of voters consistently vote: elections.bc.ca/docs/stats/Who-heads-to-the-polls.pdfSo if the Yorkshire Party or the Greens do not run a candidate there is absolutely no guarantee that the people who vote for those parties will actually show up to vote.
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Post by La Fontaine on Sept 29, 2023 15:37:37 GMT
Tain and Easter Ross By-Election - Live Count Just another moan about the way these single-seat contests are conducted. The software ignores Rule 55, which specifies that a candidate is elected when they achieve an overall majority. This makes the "quota" irrelevant. Yet the RO says that a candidate must achieve the quota! At the declaration she reads out the first preference votes, but not the final head-to-head result. Why?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,547
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 29, 2023 15:50:49 GMT
Tain and Easter Ross By-Election - Live Count Just another moan about the way these single-seat contests are conducted. The software ignores Rule 55, which specifies that a candidate is elected when they achieve an overall majority. This makes the "quota" irrelevant. Yet the RO says that a candidate must achieve the quota! At the declaration she reads out the first preference votes, but not the final head-to-head result. Why? Full result here: www.highland.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/27655/candidates_votes_per_stage.pdfInd 1312, Lib Dem 801 at final stage.
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