Local Council by-elections 28th September 2023

[Tony Otim]

HIGHLAND UA; Tain & Easter Ross (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
ALLISON, Gordon (SNP)
BARNETT, Andrew (Green)
CHRISTIAN, Harry (Scottish Libertarian)
MORRISON, Veronica (Conservative)
PERERA, Michael (Labour)
ROSS, Maureen (Independent)
STEPHEN, Charles (Liberal Democrat)

2022: SNP 1051; LD 739; Ind (Rhind) 726; Ind (Robertson) 554; Con 364
Sep 17by: Ind (Rhind) 1266; SNP 612; LD 372; Con 233; Ind (Holdsworth) 68; Libert 13 (Ind gain from LD)
2017: SNP 831; Ind (Robertson) 708; LD 679; Ind (Rhind) 569; Con 558; Ind (Skinner) 139

Veronica Morrison was the Conservative candidate here last year. Harry Christian contested the 2017 by-election here (so has a target of 13 votes to beat ) and stood in his home ward of East Sutherland & Edderton last year. An Andrew Barnett contested Inverness Central as an independent last year, when Michael Perera stood for Labour in Aird & Loch Ness.

Current Council: SNP 22; Highland Ind 17; LD 14; Con 9; Grn 4; Lab 2; Caithness Ind 1; Ind 1; Inverness Ind 1; Non-aligned 1; Sutherland Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH YORKSHIRE UA; Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BODY, Joseph James (Labour) Nomination Withdrawn
DERRICK, Lee (Yorkshire Party)
HUGILL, David (Conservative)
MORTIMER, Allan Shaw (Green)
ROSS RUSSELL, Duncan (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Con 892; Ind 643; LD 535; Lab 186

David Hugill (Con) was the independent runner-up last year and is former Conservative county councillor for North Hambleton division. Duncan Ross Russell was the Lib Dem candidate here last year. Lee Derrick stood in Whitby West last May for the Yorkshire party.

Current Council: Con 44; LD 12; Lab 11; N Yorks Ind 8; Grn 5; Ind Unaffiliated 5; Con & Ind Grp (Ind aligned to the Conservative grp, I think) 3; Lib 1; 1 vacancy



SOUTH NORFOLK DC; Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
HOLDEN, Tony (Conservative)
LEGG, Nigel Gordon Macdonald (No Desc)
McCLENNING, Robert Arthur (Liberal Democrat)
SMITH-CULLEN, Geraldine Mary (Labour)
SPARKES, Claire (Green)

2023: LD 1460, 1342, 1307; Con 1055, 893, 819; Lab 497, 467, 399
May 22by: LD 1202; Con 969; Lab 402; Grn 183; RefUK 107 (LD hold)
2019: Con 1275, 1040, 915; LD 981, 786, 692; Lab 470, 469, 360

Nigel Legg (No Description) was the top placed Conservative candidate in May and incumbent councillor having topped the poll in 2019, he was previously councillor for the old Mulbarton ward from 2007 onwards. Geraldine Smith-Cullen was the top Labour candidate in May. Tony Holden was the unsuccessful Conservative candidate in the recent West Depwade county by-election (only a small part of this ward is in that division) and is former district council for North Wymondham ward, having lost his seat in May. Bob McClenning (LD) stood unsuccessfully in Foncett ward this May and Claire Sparkes (Grn) in Stratton.


SOUTH NORFOLK DC; South Wymondham (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
DOHENY, Lowell (Labour)
LEMON, Martyn Henry Brian (Conservative)
McCONNELL, Carmina Claire (Liberal Democrat)
WALTERS, Victoria Eugenie Louise (Green)

2023: LD 752, 661; Con 443, 356; Lab 392, 313
2019: LD 712, 639; Con 457, 448

Martyn Lemon has stood here for the Conservatives in the last two elections. This May, Lowell Doheny (Lab) and Victoria Walters (Grn) both stood in Central Wymondham .

Current Council: Con 24; LD 9; Lab 9; Ind 2



WOLVERHAMPTON MBC; Bushbury South & Low Hill (Lab died)
Candidates:
BROOKFIELD, Paul Ian (Labour)
JENKINS, Ian Clive (Liberal Democrat)
NASEEM, Mohammed (Green)
WILLIAMS, Rob (Conservative)

2023: Lab 1002, 979, 931; Con 351, 303, 292; LD 198

Vacancy is for the 2023-26 term. The deceased councillor was Ian Brookfield, one of the other councillors for the ward is Paula Brookfield, so I’m guessing that Paul is perhaps their son? Ian Jenkins (LD) stood in Oxley ward in May, but previously contested this ward on the previous boundaries – the LD candidate here in May was Carole Jenkins. A Mohammed Naseem stood for Labour in Penn ward in May – I’m guessing the Green candidate may be the same person. Rob Williams stood for the Conservatives in Fallings Park in May.

Current Council: Lab 46; Con 13; 1 vacancy

[andrewp]

Yes, Paul Brookfield in Wolverhampton is the son of the late Ian, and current councillor Paula.

www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/former-council-leaders-son-following-27575137

[davidh]

There is no Labour candidate in the Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley by-election. Body was nominated but withdrew -


www.northyorks.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20-%20Hutton%20Rudby%20and%20Osmotherley.pdf

[Tony Otim]

Sept 4, 2023 8:21:28 GMT davidh said:

There is no Labour candidate in the Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley by-election. Body was nominated but withdrew -


www.northyorks.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20-%20Hutton%20Rudby%20and%20Osmotherley.pdf

Thanks - those ones always catch me out when I'm trying to get things done in a bit of a rush...

I'll update the OP

[michaelarden]

Sept 4, 2023 8:21:28 GMT davidh said:

There is no Labour candidate in the Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley by-election. Body was nominated but withdrew -


www.northyorks.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20-%20Hutton%20Rudby%20and%20Osmotherley.pdf

Pressure from the Lib Dems to give them a clearer run?

[johnloony]

Sept 2, 2023 15:06:28 GMT Tony Otim said:

SOUTH NORFOLK DC; Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
HOLDEN, Tony (Conservative)
LEGG, Nigel Gordon Macdonald (No Desc)
McCLENNING, Robert Arthur (Liberal Democrat)
SMITH-CULLEN, Geraldine Mary (Labour)
SPARKES, Claire (Green)

2023: LD 1460, 1342, 1307; Con 1055, 893, 819; Lab 497, 467, 399
May 22by: LD 1202; Con 969; Lab 402; Grn 183; RefUK 107 (LD hold)
2019: Con 1275, 1040, 915; LD 981, 786, 692; Lab 470, 469, 360

Nigel Legg (No Description) was the top placed Conservative candidate in May and incumbent councillor having topped the poll in 2019, he was previously councillor for the old Mulbarton ward from 2007 onwards. Geraldine Smith-Cullen was the top Labour candidate in May. Tony Holden was the unsuccessful Conservative candidate in the recent West Depwade county by-election (only a small part of this ward is in that division) and is former district council for North Wymondham ward, having lost his seat in May. Bob McClenning (LD) stood unsuccessfully in Foncett ward this May and Claire Sparkes (Grn) in Stratton.

I’ve just noticed that this by-election is happening. My sister lives in this ward, and in the small bit of overlap with West Depwade division which had a by-election a few weeks ago.

My sister and brother-in-law didn’t bother to vote in West Depwade a few weeks ago - partly because they didn’t know the by-election was happening (until I alerted them to it in mid-afternoon of polling day), partly because they had a cold, and partly because they couldn’t be bothered. The difference this time is that since then, my nephew has had his 18th birthday, so he will be able to vote for the first time.

[kevinf]

Sept 4, 2023 8:21:28 GMT davidh said:

There is no Labour candidate in the Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley by-election. Body was nominated but withdrew -


www.northyorks.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-09/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20-%20Hutton%20Rudby%20and%20Osmotherley.pdf

Does anyone know why?

[greenman]

Hutton Rudby & Osmotherley. With the Labour and Independent candidates dropping out does this become a straight fight between Conservative and Liberal Democrat or do their votes switch to Green. The Hambleton area elected 12 Conservative, a Liberal Democrat and a Green in 2022.

[Toylyyev]

Sept 2, 2023 15:06:28 GMT Tony Otim said:

[...]

 WOLVERHAMPTON MBC; Bushbury South & Low Hill (Lab died)
Candidates:
BROOKFIELD, Paul Ian (Labour)
JENKINS, Ian Clive (Liberal Democrat)
NASEEM, Mohammed (Green)
WILLIAMS, Rob (Conservative)

2023: Lab 1002, 979, 931; Con 351, 303, 292; LD 198

Vacancy is for the 2023-26 term. The deceased councillor was Ian Brookfield, one of the other councillors for the ward is Paula Brookfield, so I’m guessing that Paul is perhaps their son? Ian Jenkins (LD) stood in Oxley ward in May, but previously contested this ward on the previous boundaries – the LD candidate here in May was Carole Jenkins. A Mohammed Naseem stood for Labour in Penn ward in May – I’m guessing the Green candidate may be the same person. (my underscore) Rob Williams stood for the Conservatives in Fallings Park in May.

Current Council: Lab 46; Con 13; 1 vacancy

His Labour leaflet lists interesting credentials for a Green candidate.

www.facebook.com/PennLabour/posts/pfbid0BE8PyXZyfNZ5QcvDDL3mVmta522GdYgEuoyfLq1n7sUT6av6ZTEcuVzyJizLh9FPl

He's still on the profile picture of the Penn Labour facebook page.

[Deleted]

Did the Tories carry Bushbury South in 2019 do we think?

[Toylyyev]

Sept 26, 2023 3:44:20 GMT @weld said:

Did the Tories carry Bushbury South in 2019 do we think?

Not by extrapolation of the 2019 local elections. And the 2018 Bushbury South result wasn't much different.

Wolverhampton NE LE wards |   C   LAB   LD  Grn  K/B  BlC  SoA
--------------------------|-----------------------------------
           Bushbury North |  795  787  118  134  515
Bushbury South & Low Hill |  331 1067  126  209  
            Fallings Park |  537  931  165  229
               Heath Town |  436 1124  281
                    Oxley |  492  971  180  114       350   30
        Wednesfield North |  473  957       122  702
        Wednesfield South |  675  998       252  545
--------------------------|-----------------------------------
            Totals: 14646 | 3739 6835  870 1060 1762  350   30
              LE19 shares | 25.5 46.7  5.9  7.2 12.0 
Bushbury South & Low Hill | 19.1 61.6  7.3 12.1 
--------------------------|-----------------------------------
    Wolverhampton NE GE19 | 51.7 39.8  2.8  1.8  3.9

PS. Still it looks close enough under the assumption that the UKIP vote goes blue to do 2018.

Wolverhampton NE LE wards |   C   LAB   LD  Grn  K/B
--------------------------|------------------------------
           Bushbury North | 1079 1143   96   96 
Bushbury South & Low Hill |  431 1278  113
            Fallings Park |  639 1247  122
               Heath Town |  584 1454    
                    Oxley |  678 1163  231  155
        Wednesfield North |  749 1242        67  231
        Wednesfield South |  974 1466       141
--------------------------|-------------------------------
            Totals: 15379 | 5134 8993  562  459  231
              LE18 shares | 33.4 58.5  3.7  3.0  1.5
Bushbury South & Low Hill | 23.7 70.1  6.2
--------------------------|-------------------------------
    Wolverhampton NE GE19 | 51.7 39.8  2.8  1.8  3.9

which seems more decisive.

[Pete Whitehead]

Wolverhampton punlished ward results for the general election though I can't find them currently. From what I recall Bushbury South & Low Hill was close but Labour as was Heath Town, which is more or less in line with my own projections. Bushbury South is a misnomner - it only includes a small part of Bushbury. This ward is Low Hill and make no mistake

[YL]

Sept 26, 2023 6:59:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Wolverhampton punlished ward results for the general election though I can't find them currently. From what I recall Bushbury South & Low Hill was close but Labour as was Heath Town, which is more or less in line with my own projections. Bushbury South is a misnomner - it only includes a small part of Bushbury. This ward is Low Hill and make no mistake

Wolverhampton ward results PDF

Bushbury South & Low Hill

Lab 2436
Con 1749
Brexit 190
Lib Dem 113
Green 90

[Pete Whitehead]

Not as close as I remembered. Those two wards really are grim

[grumpyguy]

Sept 22, 2023 17:45:23 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 2, 2023 15:06:28 GMT Tony Otim said:

SOUTH NORFOLK DC; Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
HOLDEN, Tony (Conservative)
LEGG, Nigel Gordon Macdonald (No Desc)
McCLENNING, Robert Arthur (Liberal Democrat)
SMITH-CULLEN, Geraldine Mary (Labour)
SPARKES, Claire (Green)

2023: LD 1460, 1342, 1307; Con 1055, 893, 819; Lab 497, 467, 399
May 22by: LD 1202; Con 969; Lab 402; Grn 183; RefUK 107 (LD hold)
2019: Con 1275, 1040, 915; LD 981, 786, 692; Lab 470, 469, 360

Nigel Legg (No Description) was the top placed Conservative candidate in May and incumbent councillor having topped the poll in 2019, he was previously councillor for the old Mulbarton ward from 2007 onwards. Geraldine Smith-Cullen was the top Labour candidate in May. Tony Holden was the unsuccessful Conservative candidate in the recent West Depwade county by-election (only a small part of this ward is in that division) and is former district council for North Wymondham ward, having lost his seat in May. Bob McClenning (LD) stood unsuccessfully in Foncett ward this May and Claire Sparkes (Grn) in Stratton.

I’ve just noticed that this by-election is happening. My sister lives in this ward, and in the small bit of overlap with West Depwade division which had a by-election a few weeks ago.

My sister and brother-in-law didn’t bother to vote in West Depwade a few weeks ago - partly because they didn’t know the by-election was happening (until I alerted them to it in mid-afternoon of polling day), partly because they had a cold, and partly because they couldn’t be bothered. The difference this time is that since then, my nephew has had his 18th birthday, so he will be able to vote for the first time.

This sheds a light on the local Cons/Indy split: www.edp24.co.uk/news/23799346.by-elections-held-south-norfolk-communities/

[Clark]

Are there any other seats like the Wolverhampton ones that published ward data from the General Election?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 26, 2023 20:41:21 GMT Clark said:

Are there any other seats like the Wolverhampton ones that published ward data from the General Election?

Hounslow did.

[YL]

Sept 26, 2023 20:41:21 GMT Clark said:

Are there any other seats like the Wolverhampton ones that published ward data from the General Election?

Walsall did too: go.walsall.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2022-06/Breakdown%20on%20ward%20basis_1.pdf

[londonw5er]

Thanks to YL for posting the ward breakdown for the 2019 GE for Wolverhampton. I didn't realise any local authorities did this but I hope more will do so in future. It's an indication of how odd the 2019 election was that Wednesfield North had a bigger Tory majority than Tettenhall Regis (in %ages quite a bit bigger). I don't think that has ever happened in a local election before or since and I doubt it will again in a parliamentary one.

[phil156]

North Yorkshire & Wolverhampton are counting Thursday evening the other 3 are Friday morning at 1000am