Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 31, 2023 10:37:30 GMT
Livingston is a county constituency covering the western portion of the River Almond Valley area up to the border with the City of Edinburgh to the east. The constituency is fully contained within the West Lothian Council area, being dominated by the purpose-built new town of Livingston and housing several ex-mining towns and villages along the course of the River Almond and its tributary streams.
The town of Livingston contains around 60% of the seat's total electorate. Livingston was designated as an overspill new town to accommodate slum clearances in Glasgow and Edinburgh in 1962. It contains many large boulevard roads and roundabouts which subdivide the town into numerous distinct and seemingly remote neighbourhoods. Most parts of the town tend to be more socially deprived than the Scottish national average, with several brutalist 60s and 70s ex-council estates in central, northern and eastern parts of the town including Deans, Knightsridge, Craigshill, Howden, Ladywell and Dedridge. But in contrast to this, there has been significant new-build development in recent years in Murieston, Bellsquarry, Eliburn and parts of Carmondean in southern, western and northern parts of Livingston respectively, where there are road and rail links to the City of Edinburgh and a growing influx of middle-class new-build tenants.
Livingston's well-designed road network and geographic location at the heart of the populous Central Belt of Scotland between Glasgow and Edinburgh has allowed the town to attract scientific research, engineering, technology and distribution companies in industrial estates on the outskirts of the town, for example, Amazon's main distribution centre in Scotland is located 6-miles west of Livingston just outside of Bathgate. At the heart of Livingston is the 'Centre' and 'Designer Outlet' shopping malls and their adjoining retail parks, which are substantial employers for residents of the town and surrounding communities. Commuter data based on the result of the 2011 Scottish Census also indicates that thousands of residents of the town commute into the City of Edinburgh for work.
Livingston has more children, young people and working-aged people than the national average, with a higher proportion of married couples and people working in full-time employment, average rates of owner-occupation and social housing, and higher rates of social deprivation.
Politically, the town has always been a better area for the SNP than elsewhere in the Labour-dominated Scottish Central Belt. From Livingston's designation as a new town in 1962 until 1983, it was represented in the House of Commons as part of West Lothian constituency, which was best known for its third and final MP Tam Dalyell of the Labour Party, whose questions on Scottish devolution's consequences of having Scottish MPs voting on matters affecting the rest of the UK only being labelled "the West Lothian question". Mr Dalyell was elected in a by-election in 1962, where he won the seat with an increased majority of 11,516 (27.5%) for Labour, taking nearly twice as many votes as second-placed William Wolfe of the SNP. From then until the seat's abolishment, Mr Wolfe of the SNP contested the seat against Tam Dalyell at every general election, gradually increasing the SNP's vote share throughout the 1960s and 1970s, before coming within 2,690 votes of gaining the seat from Labour at the October 1974 general election, no doubt thanks to a higher SNP vote in the town of Livingston itself.
Indeed, at the corresponding 1974 and 1977 local government elections, the SNP topped the poll in 3 out of 5 wards in Livingston, taking 72% of the vote in Craigshill and 70% of the vote in Carmondean in 1977. Support for the SNP was mixed after 1977, with the party losing all of its councillors in Livingston in 1980 but then going on to top the poll ahead of Labour at the 1982 regional election, then dipping again before regaining 2 out of 7 councillors in 1988, 4 out of 11 councillors in 1999 and 2003, and 6 out of 12 council seats from 2007 until the present day, with the town electing its first set of Conservative councillors in 2017 under the more proportional Single Transferable Vote voting system.
As with other parts of Scotland, voting behaviour in Livingston today tends to follow social demographic lines, with the affluent middle-class neighbourhoods of Murieston and Bellsquarry in southern Livingston being the worst areas for the SNP and best areas for Labour at last year's council elections with Murieston South polling district voting 50% Labour, 20% SNP and 19% Conservative. In contrast to this, deprived ex-council estates tended to be stronger for the SNP, with a 62% SNP vote to 20% Labour and 11% Conservative vote in Knightsridge East polling district on the opposite side of the town. The three wards covering the town had an SNP vote of 43% ahead of Labour on 26% and the Conservatives on 17%, being the SNP's strongest area and Labour's weakest in the constituency. Despite having a strong history of SNP representation, it is estimated that the town narrowly rejected Scottish independence at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, with a 51% No vote to 49% Yes vote, ranging from 74% No in Murieston South to 65% Yes in Knightsridge East.
Approaching Edinburgh from Livingston are the villages of East Calder and more remote Kirknewton where, in spite of slightly lower rates of deprivation than Livingston itself, support for the SNP and independence is markedly higher. Here again, there is a long history of voting SNP dating back to a breakthrough for the party in the 1960s. These villages voted 45% SNP, 20% Conservative and 19% Labour last year, with an estimated 55% Yes vote at the 2014 independence referendum.
On the other side of the M8, the old shale mining towns of Uphall and Broxburn share a similar demographic profile to that of Livingston, with higher rates of social renting and a growing middle-class population as a result of new build development in recent decades owing to their proximity to the City of Edinburgh. Dominating the backdrop of these towns are vast piles of red spent ash waste from post-mining processes. This dramatic and quite picturesque red hill formation is a distinct feature in the local landscape. These traditionally Labour mining towns around the formation turned towards the SNP intermittently throughout the 1970s, 80s and 90s before becoming more securely SNP in the 2010s. But whilst the SNP led in Broxburn and Uphall in May last year with 42% of the vote to 30% for Labour and 18% for the Conservatives, the area returned a nasty shock for the SNP in December 2022 when almost all polling districts in the area voted Labour in a council by-election and the SNP lost 7% of their vote share to take 35% of the vote compared to Labour's 40%. This ward is representative of much of West Lothian, which has been considered an SNP stronghold for over a decade. It is estimated to have voted close to the national average at the 2014 independence referendum at 54% No to 46% Yes, ranging from 61% No in the village of Dechmont and outlying areas to 62% Yes in Uphall Central.
The demography and political profile of the seat changes as you head west from the opposite side of Livingston and upstream along the River Almond and its tributaries to Scotland's coal mining heartlands.
From Livingston to the western border of the West Lothian Council area along the River Breich are ex-coal mining towns and villages including Bents, Addiewell, Stoneyburn, Loganlea and Fauldhouse, where rates of social deprivation and social renting are notably higher than the national average.
Travelling up the valley from Livingston towards North Lanarkshire, one will note a substantial number of Union Flags as you head further away from Livingston and towards Fauldhouse, a historically Loyalist Working Class town. The overlapping Fauldhouse and Breich Valley ward is the only part of West Lothian which has remained persistently loyal to Labour in council elections dating back to the emergence of the SNP as a political force in West Lothian in the 1960s, however last year it was a close result for the party at 40% Labour, 38% SNP and 14% Conservative, carried by a 49% Labour vote to 33% SNP vote in Fauldhouse in contrast to a 47% SNP vote to 29% Labour vote in Breich & Longridge polling districts and 46% SNP vote to 35% Labour vote in Loganlea & Addiewell. Alongside Labour-leaning eastern Blackburn and Seafield, the ward had the highest No vote to independence in the 2014 independence referendum of all council wards in Livingston constituency, returning an estimated 58% No vote overall and ranging from a 63% No vote in Fauldhouse to a 50% Yes vote in Breich & Longridge.
Taken on the whole, Livingston is an archetypical constituency in the Central Belt of Scotland, containing many former mining communities where there are high rates of social deprivation and social renting, a more affluent commuter component in some neighbourhoods towards Edinburgh, and ‘60s and ‘70s ex-council housing in the new town of Livingston itself. It is for the most part more socially deprived than not, and ranks among the top 15% of constituencies in the UK for social renting.
Since the 1997 general election, the Livingston constituency returned Labour majorities of over 10,000 votes until Hannah Bardell won the seat with a 16,843 vote majority for the SNP in 2015. The Conservatives placed second here ahead of Labour at the 2019 general election, marking the seat one of the SNP's safest in the whole of Scotland. Equally, in the Scottish Parliament SNP Justice Minister Angela Constance has represented the overlapping Livingston and later Almond Valley constituencies since 2007, increasing her majority ahead of Labour to 12,130 votes in 2021.
Livingston constituency is estimated to have had a higher-than-average Leave vote relative to the rest of Scotland at the 2016 EU membership referendum at 56% Remain to 44% Leave, and it is estimated to have voted against Scottish independence by a margin of 52% No to 48% Yes.
Boundary changes here will see the loss of Blackburn East and Seafield to Linlithgow & Bathgate constituency, being slightly detrimental to Labour and beneficial to the SNP in Livingston.
Labour’s recent advance in the Uphall, Broxburn & Winchburgh ward by-election is a worrying sign for the SNP that they cannot take this seat for granted as current polling would suggest Labour are on the ascendency in many of the former mining towns and villages on the periphery of this seat. But crucial to the SNP’s success is of course the town of Livingston itself, and for Labour to have any hope of winning the seat they will need to win the support of enough Working Class Yes voters in Livingston who have been generally less willing to give Labour their vote in the past compared to more 'traditional' Labour voters around Greater Glasgow, Fife and other parts of Lothian.
A Labour win in Livingston would likely reflect significant gains across Scotland and bode well for the party in other new town dominated constituencies based around Glenrothes, East Kilbride and Cumbernauld, and perhaps a fully blown Labour recovery in the Scottish Central Belt.
The town of Livingston contains around 60% of the seat's total electorate. Livingston was designated as an overspill new town to accommodate slum clearances in Glasgow and Edinburgh in 1962. It contains many large boulevard roads and roundabouts which subdivide the town into numerous distinct and seemingly remote neighbourhoods. Most parts of the town tend to be more socially deprived than the Scottish national average, with several brutalist 60s and 70s ex-council estates in central, northern and eastern parts of the town including Deans, Knightsridge, Craigshill, Howden, Ladywell and Dedridge. But in contrast to this, there has been significant new-build development in recent years in Murieston, Bellsquarry, Eliburn and parts of Carmondean in southern, western and northern parts of Livingston respectively, where there are road and rail links to the City of Edinburgh and a growing influx of middle-class new-build tenants.
Livingston's well-designed road network and geographic location at the heart of the populous Central Belt of Scotland between Glasgow and Edinburgh has allowed the town to attract scientific research, engineering, technology and distribution companies in industrial estates on the outskirts of the town, for example, Amazon's main distribution centre in Scotland is located 6-miles west of Livingston just outside of Bathgate. At the heart of Livingston is the 'Centre' and 'Designer Outlet' shopping malls and their adjoining retail parks, which are substantial employers for residents of the town and surrounding communities. Commuter data based on the result of the 2011 Scottish Census also indicates that thousands of residents of the town commute into the City of Edinburgh for work.
Livingston has more children, young people and working-aged people than the national average, with a higher proportion of married couples and people working in full-time employment, average rates of owner-occupation and social housing, and higher rates of social deprivation.
Politically, the town has always been a better area for the SNP than elsewhere in the Labour-dominated Scottish Central Belt. From Livingston's designation as a new town in 1962 until 1983, it was represented in the House of Commons as part of West Lothian constituency, which was best known for its third and final MP Tam Dalyell of the Labour Party, whose questions on Scottish devolution's consequences of having Scottish MPs voting on matters affecting the rest of the UK only being labelled "the West Lothian question". Mr Dalyell was elected in a by-election in 1962, where he won the seat with an increased majority of 11,516 (27.5%) for Labour, taking nearly twice as many votes as second-placed William Wolfe of the SNP. From then until the seat's abolishment, Mr Wolfe of the SNP contested the seat against Tam Dalyell at every general election, gradually increasing the SNP's vote share throughout the 1960s and 1970s, before coming within 2,690 votes of gaining the seat from Labour at the October 1974 general election, no doubt thanks to a higher SNP vote in the town of Livingston itself.
Indeed, at the corresponding 1974 and 1977 local government elections, the SNP topped the poll in 3 out of 5 wards in Livingston, taking 72% of the vote in Craigshill and 70% of the vote in Carmondean in 1977. Support for the SNP was mixed after 1977, with the party losing all of its councillors in Livingston in 1980 but then going on to top the poll ahead of Labour at the 1982 regional election, then dipping again before regaining 2 out of 7 councillors in 1988, 4 out of 11 councillors in 1999 and 2003, and 6 out of 12 council seats from 2007 until the present day, with the town electing its first set of Conservative councillors in 2017 under the more proportional Single Transferable Vote voting system.
As with other parts of Scotland, voting behaviour in Livingston today tends to follow social demographic lines, with the affluent middle-class neighbourhoods of Murieston and Bellsquarry in southern Livingston being the worst areas for the SNP and best areas for Labour at last year's council elections with Murieston South polling district voting 50% Labour, 20% SNP and 19% Conservative. In contrast to this, deprived ex-council estates tended to be stronger for the SNP, with a 62% SNP vote to 20% Labour and 11% Conservative vote in Knightsridge East polling district on the opposite side of the town. The three wards covering the town had an SNP vote of 43% ahead of Labour on 26% and the Conservatives on 17%, being the SNP's strongest area and Labour's weakest in the constituency. Despite having a strong history of SNP representation, it is estimated that the town narrowly rejected Scottish independence at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, with a 51% No vote to 49% Yes vote, ranging from 74% No in Murieston South to 65% Yes in Knightsridge East.
Approaching Edinburgh from Livingston are the villages of East Calder and more remote Kirknewton where, in spite of slightly lower rates of deprivation than Livingston itself, support for the SNP and independence is markedly higher. Here again, there is a long history of voting SNP dating back to a breakthrough for the party in the 1960s. These villages voted 45% SNP, 20% Conservative and 19% Labour last year, with an estimated 55% Yes vote at the 2014 independence referendum.
On the other side of the M8, the old shale mining towns of Uphall and Broxburn share a similar demographic profile to that of Livingston, with higher rates of social renting and a growing middle-class population as a result of new build development in recent decades owing to their proximity to the City of Edinburgh. Dominating the backdrop of these towns are vast piles of red spent ash waste from post-mining processes. This dramatic and quite picturesque red hill formation is a distinct feature in the local landscape. These traditionally Labour mining towns around the formation turned towards the SNP intermittently throughout the 1970s, 80s and 90s before becoming more securely SNP in the 2010s. But whilst the SNP led in Broxburn and Uphall in May last year with 42% of the vote to 30% for Labour and 18% for the Conservatives, the area returned a nasty shock for the SNP in December 2022 when almost all polling districts in the area voted Labour in a council by-election and the SNP lost 7% of their vote share to take 35% of the vote compared to Labour's 40%. This ward is representative of much of West Lothian, which has been considered an SNP stronghold for over a decade. It is estimated to have voted close to the national average at the 2014 independence referendum at 54% No to 46% Yes, ranging from 61% No in the village of Dechmont and outlying areas to 62% Yes in Uphall Central.
The demography and political profile of the seat changes as you head west from the opposite side of Livingston and upstream along the River Almond and its tributaries to Scotland's coal mining heartlands.
From Livingston to the western border of the West Lothian Council area along the River Breich are ex-coal mining towns and villages including Bents, Addiewell, Stoneyburn, Loganlea and Fauldhouse, where rates of social deprivation and social renting are notably higher than the national average.
Travelling up the valley from Livingston towards North Lanarkshire, one will note a substantial number of Union Flags as you head further away from Livingston and towards Fauldhouse, a historically Loyalist Working Class town. The overlapping Fauldhouse and Breich Valley ward is the only part of West Lothian which has remained persistently loyal to Labour in council elections dating back to the emergence of the SNP as a political force in West Lothian in the 1960s, however last year it was a close result for the party at 40% Labour, 38% SNP and 14% Conservative, carried by a 49% Labour vote to 33% SNP vote in Fauldhouse in contrast to a 47% SNP vote to 29% Labour vote in Breich & Longridge polling districts and 46% SNP vote to 35% Labour vote in Loganlea & Addiewell. Alongside Labour-leaning eastern Blackburn and Seafield, the ward had the highest No vote to independence in the 2014 independence referendum of all council wards in Livingston constituency, returning an estimated 58% No vote overall and ranging from a 63% No vote in Fauldhouse to a 50% Yes vote in Breich & Longridge.
Taken on the whole, Livingston is an archetypical constituency in the Central Belt of Scotland, containing many former mining communities where there are high rates of social deprivation and social renting, a more affluent commuter component in some neighbourhoods towards Edinburgh, and ‘60s and ‘70s ex-council housing in the new town of Livingston itself. It is for the most part more socially deprived than not, and ranks among the top 15% of constituencies in the UK for social renting.
Since the 1997 general election, the Livingston constituency returned Labour majorities of over 10,000 votes until Hannah Bardell won the seat with a 16,843 vote majority for the SNP in 2015. The Conservatives placed second here ahead of Labour at the 2019 general election, marking the seat one of the SNP's safest in the whole of Scotland. Equally, in the Scottish Parliament SNP Justice Minister Angela Constance has represented the overlapping Livingston and later Almond Valley constituencies since 2007, increasing her majority ahead of Labour to 12,130 votes in 2021.
Livingston constituency is estimated to have had a higher-than-average Leave vote relative to the rest of Scotland at the 2016 EU membership referendum at 56% Remain to 44% Leave, and it is estimated to have voted against Scottish independence by a margin of 52% No to 48% Yes.
Boundary changes here will see the loss of Blackburn East and Seafield to Linlithgow & Bathgate constituency, being slightly detrimental to Labour and beneficial to the SNP in Livingston.
Labour’s recent advance in the Uphall, Broxburn & Winchburgh ward by-election is a worrying sign for the SNP that they cannot take this seat for granted as current polling would suggest Labour are on the ascendency in many of the former mining towns and villages on the periphery of this seat. But crucial to the SNP’s success is of course the town of Livingston itself, and for Labour to have any hope of winning the seat they will need to win the support of enough Working Class Yes voters in Livingston who have been generally less willing to give Labour their vote in the past compared to more 'traditional' Labour voters around Greater Glasgow, Fife and other parts of Lothian.
A Labour win in Livingston would likely reflect significant gains across Scotland and bode well for the party in other new town dominated constituencies based around Glenrothes, East Kilbride and Cumbernauld, and perhaps a fully blown Labour recovery in the Scottish Central Belt.
