Post by Robert Waller on Aug 30, 2023 14:15:59 GMT
As in the case of many other New Towns in England, Harlow’s electoral politics have seen dramatic developments over what is now the three quarters of a century plus of their existence. There was a village of Harlow in west Essex mentioned in the 11th century Domesday Book, but it was not populous enough to be any more than a parish within the Epping Rural District when designated to be the site of one of the original sites for the 1946 New Towns Act communities. This was along with Stevenage, Hemel Hempstead and Basildon within the Home Counties north of the Thames, and expected largely to take inhabitants from the slums and blitzed areas of London. Harlow was not given its own Urban District Council until 1955, and it remained unrecognized in the title of a parliamentary constituency until as late as February 1974. Prior to then, it had caused a major long-term swing in the Essex county constituency of Epping.
Epping had been Winston Churchill’s seat from 1924 to 1945, thus covering his period as Chancellor of the Exchequer, 1930s rebel and wilderness years, and of course almost the whole of the Second World War. Already oversized because of the inter-war expansion of London, it was split in 1945, with Churchill taking the Woodford section, but Harlow New Town was then the main cause of another rapid growth, as those voting in general elections rose from 36,000 in 1845 to 56,000 in 1955, 70,500 in 1959 and over 84,500 in 1970. Labour did win in 1945, but only by less than a thousand. However Harlow was mainly responsible for the gain by Stan Newens in 1964. Epping was now marginal, and in 1970 it was regained by a political neophyte by the name of Norman Tebbit. By this time its electorate was 115,500, almost twice the average, and the creation of a constituency named after Harlow was long overdue.
As is widely known, when Epping was again divided he followed the part called Chingford. Stan Newens returned to the Commons in Harlow and held it till the Thatcher landslide of 1983, when he was beaten by the 30 year old Jerry Hayes. Harlow’s marginal status was confirmed by three Labour victories for Bill Rammell in the Blair elections, the last one in 2005 only by 97 votes and by being a Tory regain in 2010. Since that time it has swung strongly to the Conservatives, and by December 2019 the independently minded Robert Halfon’s majority was over 14,000. Harlow now ranked as Labour’s target no.191 (on current boundaries; the changes for Harlow were very minor). They could now effectively win an election without taking this seat. Something has clearly happened to weaken Labour’s appeal.
The first place to look for an explanation is in changes in the housing stock. Originally most of the housing in Harlow was constructed by the New Town Development Corporation and was hence not originally owner occupied. In 1971 the percentage of ‘social housing’ in Harlow urban district was 86.4%, in 1981 still 74.7 %; in the constituency as a whole it was 65.6% in 1981, with owner occupation only at 31%. However when the opportunity came it proved popular to buy the New Town stock, and also there has been significant newer private development, such as pretty much the whole of the Church Langley ward, south of Old Harlow and east of the Mark Hall South New Town neighbourhood – in 2023 the top Tory candidate took 64.1% of the vote in a three way contest in Church Langley. By 2001 the social housing proportion was less than half that of 1981. Despite the traditionally strong relationship between housing tenure and party preference, this may not be the only or even main cause of the pro-Tory shift, as in the 2021 census over 26% was still classed as social housing, which places Harlow in the top decile within the England and Wales: 57th out of 575.
Another linked group of explanations may be indicated by Harlow’s response to the 2016 referendum, in which it is estimated that nearly 68% voted to Leave the EU. Most such areas swung heavily to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019 with their promise to ‘get Brexit done’. However that Europhobic attitude in turn needs to be explained. The Harlow seat ranked 480th in 2021 for those possessing a university degree. This is not a liberal intellectual area. With regard to employment, a number of sectors rate far above average: transport and storage, 66th out of 650 in 2011, construction, 64th and wholesale and retail trade, 18th. Despite the original intention of the New Towns to import industry as well as housing, Harlow was scarcely above average for employment in manufacturing by 2011. These are not strong indicators for trade union membership or traditional proletarian attitudes.
Finally, there is the location. Essex has swung away from Labour as much as any English region since the Blair years, when New Labour could win as many as six parliamentary seats in the county, including even Castle Point (at present the 3rd safest of all Conservative constituencies with a majority of over 26,000 and safe against a 30% swing) and Harwich (the predecessor of Clacton, now the fifth safest). Jeremy Corbyn’s party won none, not even when nationally they advanced in 2017.
Turning to the internal makeup of Harlow, the recent Conservative strength is apparent at ward level as well. Labour were the largest party on Harlow district council continually from 1973 to 2000 – in 1973 and 1996 Conservatives had no representation on the council at all. After a Liberal Democrat surge in the 2000s, two party politics resumed from 2008, when the Tories took control. Labour regained a majority on the council in the midterm of the first Cameron government in 2012, but in the contests in May 2021 the Conservatives won 12 of the 13 Harlow district wards; Labour held only Little Parndon & Hare Street. Even in better years such as 2022 and 2023 Labour could still win wards which still have a substantial minority of social housing, such as Bush Fair, Netteswell, and Mark Hall, but others – Old Harlow, Great Parndon, Sumners & Kingsmoor and of course Church Langley, now seem beyond their ken. In May 2023 the Tories even gained one ward from Labour – Staple Tye – in the only change of hand that year, and confirmed their majority control of the council, with 22 year old Dan Swords (Bush Fair) as leader. What is more, it must be remembered that Harlow is not the whole of the constituency that bears its name.
It also includes four wards from the District of Epping Forest: Hastingwood, Matching & Sheering Village, Lower Nazeing, Lower Sheering and Roydon. These curl round Harlow to its east, south and west. All are Independent or heavily Conservative in local elections, except for Lower Sheering, an LD gain in 2023. The whole of this extraneous terrain is included within one Essex county council division, North Weald & Nazeing, in which the Tory share was over 72% in May 2021. In the final Boundary Commission recommendations the non-Harlow rural section would have been slightly extended to include the whole of the Epping Forest ward of Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazeing, but in the revised proposals published in November 2022, confirmed in the final report in June 2023, this ward was retained in Epping Forest, and instead the Hatfield Heath (72% Tory even in May 2023), and Broad Oak & the Hallingburys (Residents win in 2023) wards of Uttlesford district would be transferred to the Harlow constituency from the existing Saffron Walden constituency. In this proposal, therefore, the Harlow constituency would include wards from three different local authorities.
These minor changes did not significantly alter the electoral situation in the Harlow seat. When Labour regained it in the 2024 election on a swing of over 20%, it was indeed not merely as contenders for government, but as part of a very large overall majority.
2021 Census (new boundaries, ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 15.9% 418 /575
Owner occupied 58.5% 417/575
Private rented 15.4% 419/575
Social rented 26.0% 57/575
White 84.4% 366/575
Black 5.4% 131/575
Asian 5.3% 255/575
Managerial & professional 29.7% 365/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.5% 188/575
Degree level 25.5% 480/575
No qualifications 20.4% 175/575
Students 5.5% 301/575
General Election 2024: Harlow
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Chris Vince 16,313 37.6 +8.3
Conservative Hannah Ellis 13,809 31.8 −32.8
Reform UK Malcolm Featherstone 9,461 21.8 N/A
Green Yasmin Gregory 2,267 5.2 +4.9
Liberal Democrats Riad Mannan 1,350 3.1 −2.8
UKIP Lois Perry 157 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 2,504 5.8 N/A
Turnout 43,357 58.2 –6.3
Registered electors 74,683
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 20.6 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Harlow
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Robert Halfon 27,510 63.5 +9.5
Labour Laura McAlpine 13,447 31.0 −7.3
Liberal Democrats Charlotte Cane 2,397 5.5 +3.3
C Majority 14,063 32.4 +16.8
2019 electorate 68,078
Turnout 43,354 63.7 −2.5
Conservative hold
Swing 8.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Harlow consists of
100% of Harlow
5.8% of Saffron Walden
0.2% of Brentwood & Ongar
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_065_Harlow_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results (Rallings & Thrasher)
Useful page with ward local election results progression maps (scroll down)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harlow_District_Council_elections
Epping had been Winston Churchill’s seat from 1924 to 1945, thus covering his period as Chancellor of the Exchequer, 1930s rebel and wilderness years, and of course almost the whole of the Second World War. Already oversized because of the inter-war expansion of London, it was split in 1945, with Churchill taking the Woodford section, but Harlow New Town was then the main cause of another rapid growth, as those voting in general elections rose from 36,000 in 1845 to 56,000 in 1955, 70,500 in 1959 and over 84,500 in 1970. Labour did win in 1945, but only by less than a thousand. However Harlow was mainly responsible for the gain by Stan Newens in 1964. Epping was now marginal, and in 1970 it was regained by a political neophyte by the name of Norman Tebbit. By this time its electorate was 115,500, almost twice the average, and the creation of a constituency named after Harlow was long overdue.
As is widely known, when Epping was again divided he followed the part called Chingford. Stan Newens returned to the Commons in Harlow and held it till the Thatcher landslide of 1983, when he was beaten by the 30 year old Jerry Hayes. Harlow’s marginal status was confirmed by three Labour victories for Bill Rammell in the Blair elections, the last one in 2005 only by 97 votes and by being a Tory regain in 2010. Since that time it has swung strongly to the Conservatives, and by December 2019 the independently minded Robert Halfon’s majority was over 14,000. Harlow now ranked as Labour’s target no.191 (on current boundaries; the changes for Harlow were very minor). They could now effectively win an election without taking this seat. Something has clearly happened to weaken Labour’s appeal.
The first place to look for an explanation is in changes in the housing stock. Originally most of the housing in Harlow was constructed by the New Town Development Corporation and was hence not originally owner occupied. In 1971 the percentage of ‘social housing’ in Harlow urban district was 86.4%, in 1981 still 74.7 %; in the constituency as a whole it was 65.6% in 1981, with owner occupation only at 31%. However when the opportunity came it proved popular to buy the New Town stock, and also there has been significant newer private development, such as pretty much the whole of the Church Langley ward, south of Old Harlow and east of the Mark Hall South New Town neighbourhood – in 2023 the top Tory candidate took 64.1% of the vote in a three way contest in Church Langley. By 2001 the social housing proportion was less than half that of 1981. Despite the traditionally strong relationship between housing tenure and party preference, this may not be the only or even main cause of the pro-Tory shift, as in the 2021 census over 26% was still classed as social housing, which places Harlow in the top decile within the England and Wales: 57th out of 575.
Another linked group of explanations may be indicated by Harlow’s response to the 2016 referendum, in which it is estimated that nearly 68% voted to Leave the EU. Most such areas swung heavily to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019 with their promise to ‘get Brexit done’. However that Europhobic attitude in turn needs to be explained. The Harlow seat ranked 480th in 2021 for those possessing a university degree. This is not a liberal intellectual area. With regard to employment, a number of sectors rate far above average: transport and storage, 66th out of 650 in 2011, construction, 64th and wholesale and retail trade, 18th. Despite the original intention of the New Towns to import industry as well as housing, Harlow was scarcely above average for employment in manufacturing by 2011. These are not strong indicators for trade union membership or traditional proletarian attitudes.
Finally, there is the location. Essex has swung away from Labour as much as any English region since the Blair years, when New Labour could win as many as six parliamentary seats in the county, including even Castle Point (at present the 3rd safest of all Conservative constituencies with a majority of over 26,000 and safe against a 30% swing) and Harwich (the predecessor of Clacton, now the fifth safest). Jeremy Corbyn’s party won none, not even when nationally they advanced in 2017.
Turning to the internal makeup of Harlow, the recent Conservative strength is apparent at ward level as well. Labour were the largest party on Harlow district council continually from 1973 to 2000 – in 1973 and 1996 Conservatives had no representation on the council at all. After a Liberal Democrat surge in the 2000s, two party politics resumed from 2008, when the Tories took control. Labour regained a majority on the council in the midterm of the first Cameron government in 2012, but in the contests in May 2021 the Conservatives won 12 of the 13 Harlow district wards; Labour held only Little Parndon & Hare Street. Even in better years such as 2022 and 2023 Labour could still win wards which still have a substantial minority of social housing, such as Bush Fair, Netteswell, and Mark Hall, but others – Old Harlow, Great Parndon, Sumners & Kingsmoor and of course Church Langley, now seem beyond their ken. In May 2023 the Tories even gained one ward from Labour – Staple Tye – in the only change of hand that year, and confirmed their majority control of the council, with 22 year old Dan Swords (Bush Fair) as leader. What is more, it must be remembered that Harlow is not the whole of the constituency that bears its name.
It also includes four wards from the District of Epping Forest: Hastingwood, Matching & Sheering Village, Lower Nazeing, Lower Sheering and Roydon. These curl round Harlow to its east, south and west. All are Independent or heavily Conservative in local elections, except for Lower Sheering, an LD gain in 2023. The whole of this extraneous terrain is included within one Essex county council division, North Weald & Nazeing, in which the Tory share was over 72% in May 2021. In the final Boundary Commission recommendations the non-Harlow rural section would have been slightly extended to include the whole of the Epping Forest ward of Broadley Common, Epping Upland & Nazeing, but in the revised proposals published in November 2022, confirmed in the final report in June 2023, this ward was retained in Epping Forest, and instead the Hatfield Heath (72% Tory even in May 2023), and Broad Oak & the Hallingburys (Residents win in 2023) wards of Uttlesford district would be transferred to the Harlow constituency from the existing Saffron Walden constituency. In this proposal, therefore, the Harlow constituency would include wards from three different local authorities.
These minor changes did not significantly alter the electoral situation in the Harlow seat. When Labour regained it in the 2024 election on a swing of over 20%, it was indeed not merely as contenders for government, but as part of a very large overall majority.
2021 Census (new boundaries, ranks England and Wales)
Age 65+ 15.9% 418 /575
Owner occupied 58.5% 417/575
Private rented 15.4% 419/575
Social rented 26.0% 57/575
White 84.4% 366/575
Black 5.4% 131/575
Asian 5.3% 255/575
Managerial & professional 29.7% 365/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.5% 188/575
Degree level 25.5% 480/575
No qualifications 20.4% 175/575
Students 5.5% 301/575
General Election 2024: Harlow
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Chris Vince 16,313 37.6 +8.3
Conservative Hannah Ellis 13,809 31.8 −32.8
Reform UK Malcolm Featherstone 9,461 21.8 N/A
Green Yasmin Gregory 2,267 5.2 +4.9
Liberal Democrats Riad Mannan 1,350 3.1 −2.8
UKIP Lois Perry 157 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 2,504 5.8 N/A
Turnout 43,357 58.2 –6.3
Registered electors 74,683
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 20.6 C to Lab
General Election 2019: Harlow
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Robert Halfon 27,510 63.5 +9.5
Labour Laura McAlpine 13,447 31.0 −7.3
Liberal Democrats Charlotte Cane 2,397 5.5 +3.3
C Majority 14,063 32.4 +16.8
2019 electorate 68,078
Turnout 43,354 63.7 −2.5
Conservative hold
Swing 8.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Harlow consists of
100% of Harlow
5.8% of Saffron Walden
0.2% of Brentwood & Ongar
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_065_Harlow_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 30573 | 64.6% |
| Lab | 13879 | 29.3% |
| LD | 2783 | 5.9% |
| Grn | 125 | 0.3% |
| Majority | 16694 | 35.3% |
Useful page with ward local election results progression maps (scroll down)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harlow_District_Council_elections