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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 17:56:55 GMT
Jacinta Price has made quite the name for herself over the course of the referendum campaign. She is an exceptional orator and campaigner. It has been suggested she may come to lead the Nationals in future, or even the Coalition to become a future PM of Australia. jamie would you be able to provide any insight? She’s an interesting character. Her mother is a former Country Liberal state MP who lost her seat in 2016 (with an abysmal result even by the standard of that year) and Price herself had links to the conservative establishment before being elected. Shes clearly done well out of being an indigenous woman stridently opposed to a referendum on indigenous issues. However, she has 2 main issues. Firstly, she is defined by her views on indigenous policy and it’s unclear she would be as notable if discussion shifts to other issues. Given she represents a very unique constituency, she may find herself on shakier ground when trying to appeal to Nationals and right wing voters more generally across the whole nation. Secondly, she has displayed a fairly ideologically rigid approach to politics. She was clearly opposed to the Voice before the Coalition officially opposed it, and has more recently got in trouble for her comments on colonisation and being unable to back Dutton’s proposed referendum on constitutional recognition. In sum, this referendum campaign is her high point in conservative politics, and it’s unclear how much her star would fade in more ‘normal’ times. To be fair though, her comments on colonialism have been promoted across social media to good effect by Advance to oppose the Voice. Surely those views would be more widely felt by the membership of the Nationals? Perhaps not the Liberals so much. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 6, 2023 18:20:40 GMT
To be fair though, her comments on colonialism have been promoted across social media to good effect by Advance to oppose the Voice. Surely those views would be more widely felt by the membership of the Nationals? Perhaps not the Liberals so much. The Nationals are a bit odd. As an agrarian party they can be as ideologically diverse as the Liberals. They are in effect a ‘party of power’ in a lot of regional Australia and therefore attract many moderate voters and politicians who might be Liberal (or even Labor) if they lived elsewhere. A lot depends on where they are from. The Queensland ones tend to be the most right wing, the WA ones the most moderate. Whether they are from coal mining, agricultural or touristy areas can have a big impact on what they prioritise. I wouldn’t say they’ve been promoted to good effect. They’ve not undermined the No campaign like their opponents may have hoped, but a campaign based on minimising colonisation would have led to the referendum being much closer than the campaign they’ve largely ran in practice (lack of details, can’t go back, racial inequality in the constitution etc). Price could benefit from a sense shes an honest and principled person, but she’s also someone clearly focused on a specific issue which the Coalition wouldn’t want to be seen as overtly obsessed with outside the actual referendum. It wouldn’t surprise me if she ran for Northern Territories leader at some point, it’s clearly where her passions would lie. |
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Post by jamie on Oct 6, 2023 19:13:57 GMT
For those interested, I’ve just came across the booth results from the 1999 Republic referendum. I suspect the results of the upcoming result will probably look uncannily similar adjusted for the even bigger loss. Take note in particular of the strong results for Yes in Green friendly areas, which current polling suggests could stand out even more this time (the AV referendum comes to mind). web.archive.org/web/20000301132327/http://www.referendum.aec.gov.au/ |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 6, 2023 20:03:18 GMT
There have been several problematic reMarks on the AbOrigines and colonization here: Firstly the asSertion, that people either are equal or will become (with "progress"/"reforms"/...) equal by socialEngineering. What has noThing to do with the reality of different genomes, which explain a lot (albeit not everyThing); but which is inevitable, of course, as soon as one believes in the democratic dogma of universal equality (1 man = 1 vote). Secondly, that colonization would have helped/harmed so much. Yet, P.CHAUNU tried to quantify the worth You - we Austrians were generally uninvolved, even economical victims, i have noThing to defend here - pressed out of the colonies and came to 1% of global worth. What was in the long run not without imPortance for the acCumulation of capital, yet meets not those phantastic numbers many have. And this misBelief relies on a common&conservative view of ecoNomy - that of the PhysioCrats: Who sits on and invests in the gold/silver/iron/..., would have a strong ecoNomy. While this has basically been true for archaic societies, it misses, that Europe's economical surge was based on technological exPlosions (especially in the XIth & XIXth). In short: Not on the just exploiting investor (let alone the lazy hoarder), instead on the ambitious engineer. Take your racist shit elsewhere champ. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 6, 2023 22:15:47 GMT
For those interested, I’ve just came across the booth results from the 1999 Republic referendum. I suspect the results of the upcoming result will probably look uncannily similar adjusted for the even bigger loss. Take note in particular of the strong results for Yes in Green friendly areas, which current polling suggests could stand out even more this time (the AV referendum comes to mind). web.archive.org/web/20000301132327/http://www.referendum.aec.gov.au/My main abiding memory of the 1999 referendum on the monarchy was that the BBC news illustrated its report of the result by showing a map with a label showing “No” in each state - except that the map (a) erroneously didn’t label Tasmania (b) irrelevantly labelled Northern Territories. I did of course write to complain, but I don’t remember getting any reply. This time, the BBC and the media generally are so dumbed down that I suspect (a) not even that they will make the same mistake again (b) but that it will be even worse in the sense of not even showing us a map at all. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 7, 2023 8:01:48 GMT
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 7, 2023 10:27:26 GMT
This map correlates very closely to the 1999 Republic referendum result.
It is ironic the only places that would vote yes based on this poll are inner city areas.
In that regard it has striking bearing to the AV referendum in the UK in 2011.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 7, 2023 10:35:09 GMT
This map correlates very closely to the 1999 Republic referendum result. It is ironic the only places that would vote yes based on this poll are inner city areas. In that regard it has striking bearing to the AV referendum in the UK in 2011.
It’s interesting to see the complete failure of the ‘progressive No’ campaign. The polling for Greens voters has barely changed and is still at ~75% in a lot of polls. It’s among everyone else (including Labor voters) where Yes support has slumped. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 7, 2023 10:58:28 GMT
This map correlates very closely to the 1999 Republic referendum result. It is ironic the only places that would vote yes based on this poll are inner city areas. In that regard it has striking bearing to the AV referendum in the UK in 2011.
It’s interesting to see the complete failure of the ‘progressive No’ campaign. The polling for Greens voters has barely changed and is still at ~75% in a lot of polls. It’s among everyone else (including Labor voters) where Yes support has slumped. Isn't most of inner Melbourne very progressive? Large parts of would vote No based on the MRP. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 7, 2023 11:15:53 GMT
It’s interesting to see the complete failure of the ‘progressive No’ campaign. The polling for Greens voters has barely changed and is still at ~75% in a lot of polls. It’s among everyone else (including Labor voters) where Yes support has slumped. Isn't most of inner Melbourne very progressive? Large parts of would vote No based on the MRP. But are they voting No for ‘progressive’ reasons? I should clarify that ‘progressive No’ tends to refer to a specific position in Australia i.e. that Aboriginals are and always have been a separate group of people who should be treated as such. The fact the Voice is overwhelmingly supported by Greens voters, the only party that would support these sorts of goals, is revealing of how little cut through it has had. There’s also been a big shift in polls on why people are voting No (there’s not many of these polls it must be said). There’s been a noticeable move away from ‘the Voice is symbolic/would be powerless’ to ‘the Voice would be divisive, including racially’. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 7, 2023 18:53:05 GMT
There’s been a noticeable move away from ‘the Voice is symbolic/would be powerless’ to ‘the Voice would be divisive, including racially’. I don't see those as mutually exclusive, nor even counterintuitive. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 11, 2023 7:44:35 GMT
Polling is suggesting that Yes may have bottomed out. Given that’s at 42%, that’s not much consolation for Yes supporters.
Relatedly, there’s significant diversity in the polls which means some pollsters will be well off the mark (if not massively/potentially all of them). At least some pollsters will probably end up very discredited and well beyond any margin of error defence.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 13, 2023 6:50:03 GMT
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Post by willpower3 on Oct 13, 2023 11:08:11 GMT
The drop being suggested seems to entirely come from postal voting, which would be expected to decline compared to the 2022 federal election. Pre-poll voting is actually up on that. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 14, 2023 7:38:31 GMT
Small amounts of votes are being reported after polls closed. It’s not as bad as it could be for Yes, but it doesn’t look close.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 14, 2023 7:52:21 GMT
After 130,000 votes votes cast (0.76% of the projected total) the current national vote is YES 40% NO 60%
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Post by heslingtonian on Oct 14, 2023 8:05:30 GMT
ABC has called Tasmania and New South Wales for No, ACT for Yes.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 8:09:57 GMT
ABC has called Tasmania and New South Wales for No, ACT for Yes. Tasmania was supposed to be the strongest state for YES. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 14, 2023 8:15:40 GMT
ABC has called Tasmania and New South Wales for No, ACT for Yes. Tasmania was supposed to be the strongest state for YES. There were a couple of pollsters who actually gave very small Tasmanian subsamples in the last few weeks and they found it markedly Yes voting. This went against conventional wisdom and polling from earlier in the campaign. There was a late larger subsample which suggested it was more average in support. The latter looks to be correct. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 14, 2023 8:21:36 GMT
Blowout NO victory in traditionally Labor leaning Western Sydney and solid YES victory in traditionally Liberal Eastern Sydney.
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