2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

[Devil Wincarnate]

It seems the Yes strategy was anticipated many years ago.

[johnloony]

Sept 19, 2023 17:03:05 GMT jamie said:

The Yes campaign has recently argued that big(ish) rallies show that they can still win this. If even Essential are finding a 14% gap, then it doesn’t look like Yes are even winning the enthusiasm vote nevermind the actual vote. 

In the same way that Corbyn won in 2019 with mass youth rallies.

[stb12]

Many on the Scottish Indy Yes side were convinced they’d win because they attracted much more in the way of rallies and online activity

[uthacalthing]

People with no job and a free bus pass love a rally.

[timrollpickering]

There's been a row over the "savings provisions" that allow a tick to be counted as a vote for Yes but a cross is ambiguous.

The courts have upheld the current interpretation which has been in place since 1988. Lots of outrage from particular quarters, including from present and past MPs who did sweet FA about this over the last 35 years in parliament.

The referendum ballot paper has the lowest spoilt/"informal" rate in Australia and ticks are estimated to be an extremely low number of ballot papers anyway so this feels like somebody trying to get the excuses in early and completely failing to notice the polls suggest this is all unnecessary.

[jamie]

Sept 20, 2023 11:52:51 GMT timrollpickering said:

There's been a row over the "savings provisions" that allow a tick to be counted as a vote for Yes but a cross is ambiguous.

The courts have upheld the current interpretation which has been in place since 1988. Lots of outrage from particular quarters, including from present and past MPs who did sweet FA about this over the last 35 years in parliament.

The referendum ballot paper has the lowest spoilt/"informal" rate in Australia and ticks are estimated to be an extremely low number of ballot papers anyway so this feels like somebody trying to get the excuses in early and completely failing to notice the polls suggest this is all unnecessary.

The challenge itself came from people associated with the United Australia Party. Despite bringing the challenge, it was observed that they didn’t try hard to establish they had standing to get the court to rule on the issue, the suggestion being that they wanted the court to simply dismiss the case without considering the merits so the interpretation becomes unclear. The court did dismiss it on the merits, but ironically hinted that the UAP could have standing had they not deregistered themselves! 

[ntyuk1707]

Good article in the Spectator about the referendum - www.spectator.co.uk/article/australias-disastrous-indigenous-voice-referendum/

[uthacalthing]

Sept 21, 2023 12:27:41 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Good article in the Spectator about the referendum - www.spectator.co.uk/article/australias-disastrous-indigenous-voice-referendum/

Excellent article. It encapsulates the viewpoint I expressed up thread, that when a technologically superior civilization conquers or enslaves a technologically inferior one, even if only measured in war making capability, they more often than not make the conquered and enslaved people rich beyond their wildest dreams, and leave them as third class citizens in their own land with their heritage and culture destroyed.  And few of them would go back to the primitive lives their grandparents endured. 

This situation  cries out for a stunning victory speech by the No side. eviscerating Albanese and his clique,  genuflecting to pre European history and promising greater effort at understanding. Then eviscerating Albanese again. 

[ntyuk1707]

New Redbridge poll out today (comparison 30 August-4 September 2023):

NO 62% (+1)

YES 38% (-1)

[jamie]

Newspoll:

Yes - 39%
No - 61%

Labor - 54%
LNP - 46%

Albanese
Approve - 47%
Disapprove - 44%

Dutton
Approve - 32%
Disapprove - 52%

There continues to be a massive gulf between opinion of the Voice, and opinion of the political parties.

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 24, 2023 12:08:02 GMT jamie said:

Newspoll:

Yes - 39%
No - 61%

Labor - 54%
LNP - 46%

Albanese
Approve - 47%
Disapprove - 44%

Dutton
Approve - 32%
Disapprove - 52%

There continues to be a massive gulf between opinion on the Voice, and opinion on the political parties.

Changes with 28 August-1 September:

NO +3

YES -3

[ntyuk1707]

Freshwater (changes with 2-5 Sept)

NO 50% (=)
YES 33% (-2)
DK 17% (+2)

With don't knows removed:

NO 60% (+1)
YES 40% (-1)
 
Direction of travel quite consistently moving towards No at this point. The most recent 3 opinion polls have had No on over 60% of the vote.

[uthacalthing]

This means either that the Australian people are racist or that they hold their establishment in contempt.

Poll needed.

[finsobruce]

Sept 25, 2023 12:56:48 GMT uthacalthing said:

This means either that the Australian people are racist or that they hold their establishment in contempt.

Poll needed.

in Australia.

[ntyuk1707]

Roy Morgan poll (changes with 26-29 May 2023):

NO 53% (+9)
YES 47% (-9)

Worst poll for No in nearly a month. 

[ntyuk1707]

Subsamples of the Roy Morgan poll:

Tasmania 56% Yes (+14) 43% No (+17) 1% DK (-31)
Victoria 46% Yes (-1) 42% No (+10) 12% DK (-9)
New South Wales 42% No (+4) 40% Yes (-8)  18% DK (+4)
South Australia 48% No (+16) 31% Yes (-8) 20% DK (+5)
Queensland 49% No (+3) 31% Yes (-8) 20% DK (+5)
Western Australia 46% No (+11) 30% Yes (-11) 24% DK (=)

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 26, 2023 9:27:32 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Subsamples of the Roy Morgan poll:

Tasmania 56% Yes (+14) 43% No (+17) 1% DK (-31)
Victoria 46% Yes (-1) 42% No (+10) 12% DK (-9)
New South Wales 42% No (+4) 40% Yes (-8)  18% DK (+4)
South Australia 48% No (+16) 31% Yes (-8) 20% DK (+5)
Queensland 49% No (+3) 31% Yes (-8) 20% DK (+5)
Western Australia 46% No (+11) 30% Yes (-11) 24% DK (=)

If these figures were accurate, on a universal swing Yes would need to win around 57% of the national vote to carry 4 out of 6 states.

The most recent state-specific polls puts No on 61%-39% in Western Australia (8-9 Sept) and 56-44 in Tasmania (21 Aug).

[timrollpickering]

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/09/voice-referendum-polling-nothing-has.html

Updates

Morgan (Sep 25)
An interesting return from Morgan which hasn't polled on the Voice for a while, an online poll showing Yes trailing by a modest 39-44, 47-53 with undecided removed. However Morgan caution strongly that they expect undecideds to break to No, ie that No's lead is likely to be far greater than their poll shows. Here I'm aggregating two-answer preferred polls and on that basis Morgan's a considerable outlier. Putting it in my aggregate has pushed Yes back up to 41.5 and the projected end-point of two-answer polling at 39.9 (it might be Yes does a bit worse than that if undecideds break to No).

The Morgan also has a rare (these days) full set of state data. On this basis I now have the following state estimates:

Vic 45.2 (+3.7) Tas 45.1 (+3.6), NSW 42.7 (+1.2), SA 40.5 (-1.0), WA 38.5 (-3.0), Qld 34.8 (-6.7) with Territories 56.3 (+14.8).

It's possible Morgan's question design is contributing to the difference. Unlike polls that reproduce the question as faithfully as possible, including the "Do you approve the proposed alteration?" that might read oddly in a poll, Morgan's question is:

"Next month’s referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?"

[uthacalthing]

Sept 26, 2023 9:27:32 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Subsamples of the Roy Morgan poll:

Tasmania 56% Yes (+14) 43% No (+17) 1% DK (-31)

Black comedy 

[ntyuk1707]

12 days to go, and early voting now opened in remote communities.