2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum

[iain]

Aug 31, 2023 11:25:15 GMT The Bishop said:

Its quite possibly even worse than our 2016 remain effort.

Oh, it is far, far worse than that.

[johnloony]

Aug 31, 2023 6:16:23 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Aug 30, 2023 16:09:34 GMT jamie said:

A few general comments for those interested:

The Yes campaign is truly appalling. It’s led by people who’ve never had to win elections and consequently have no idea how to engage with normal people. The government, despite pushing forward with the referendum, has shown little real commitment to heading the campaign in their place (and the only member of the government to show any interest is the Indigenous minister, who is not a persuasive politician).
Any criticism or questions about the Voice tend to get pigeonholed as misinformation, racism etc, which means the Yes side has done next to nothing to engage with people who aren’t hardcore supporters of the Voice (including normal genuinely persuadable voters).
The government has released a lot of detail on what the legislation enacting the Voice would include, but nonetheless won’t give all the detail eg; how is it elected. They also won’t say if a Yes vote will be taken as a mandate for further controversial policies in the area. This has led to a widespread view they are hiding unpopular elements of the Voice.
There’s some debate about the legal effect of the amendment. In itself, it’s a very vague and could be easily neutered by legislation, but there is some legal concern about overreach if it reaches the courts. The Labor attorney general tried to sort this out, but was stopped by the Yes side.
It’s worth saying that the official Liberal Party position is that a Voice is a good idea, it just shouldn’t be put in the constitution and so nationally orientated. Whether they stick to this in the event of a No vote, who knows.

So the yes campaign has been on the UK's inept Yes campaign to stay in the EU, wowzers.

If you want to make a comparison wuith other referendum campaigns, you can hardly get worse than the Yes campaign in the 2011 AV referendum.

[jamie]

Newspoll (considered the gold standard but not really):
Yes - 38%
No - 53%

Yes has probably had a decent few days after the referendum date announcement, which just goes to show how de facto No leaning the less politically engaged voters are (which is not a shock when you look at the demographics of who is voting No).

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 3, 2023 11:45:58 GMT jamie said:

Newspoll (considered the gold standard but not really):
Yes - 38%
No - 53%

Yes has probably had a decent few days after the referendum date announcement, which just goes to show how de facto No leaning the less politically engaged voters are (which is not a shock when you look at the demographics of who is voting No).

Do you have any insight as to whether a referendum to become a Republic would be removed from the agenda should the Yes campaign fail at the referendum?

[jamie]

Sept 3, 2023 13:17:55 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Do you have any insight as to whether a referendum to become a Republic would be removed from the agenda should the Yes campaign fail at the referendum?

I think it would certainly give them a fright. If this fails then one of the lessons will be that you need cross-party agreement for a referendum to succeed. I cannot realistically see that happening, especially if someone like Dutton is still leader of the Liberals.

One of the reasons the Republic failed last time was division over the details of the new constitutional settlement, which is viewed as having informed the Albanese governments caution in nailing down all the detail of the Voice in advance/in the actual amendment. If both referendums have failed then it suggests a future Republic one would as well, whether by ‘don’t know, vote no’ or ‘vote no and have a referendum on a better alternative later’.

Probably the biggest outstanding question is whether the government gets tainted by the referendum. It hasn’t been significantly so far, but as the campaign heats up and eventually probably loses it might (whether from people more strongly opposing the government’s Yes support, or from thinking the government is too focused on the issue over cost of living etc). 

[stb12]

I think i’m right in saying all or the vast majority of referendums in Australia have failed?

[maxque]

Sept 3, 2023 15:28:40 GMT stb12 said:

I think i’m right in saying all or the vast majority of referendums in Australia have failed?

8 successes, 34 failures. Gay marriage doesn't count, as it was a non-binding plebiscite.

[jamie]

Sept 3, 2023 15:28:40 GMT stb12 said:

I think i’m right in saying all or the vast majority of referendums in Australia have failed?

Most of them have, in part due to the requirement to have the support of 4/6 of the states. One referendum failed with 62% national support in 1977. The Voice referendum actually looks to have a fairly neutral vote distribution (partly down to Queensland being so No voting), so would probably pass with a slim national majority, not that it is likely to achieve that at this point. 

[maxque]

Sept 3, 2023 15:55:11 GMT jamie said:

Sept 3, 2023 15:28:40 GMT stb12 said:

I think i’m right in saying all or the vast majority of referendums in Australia have failed?

Most of them have, in part due to the requirement to have the support of 4/6 of the states. One referendum failed with 62% national support in 1977. The Voice referendum actually looks to have a fairly neutral vote distribution (partly down to Queensland being so No voting), so would probably pass with a slim national majority, not that it is likely to achieve that at this point. 

Only 5 (out of 34) have failed for that reason. That's still 29/42 who failed to win the popular vote.

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 3, 2023 15:55:11 GMT jamie said:

Sept 3, 2023 15:28:40 GMT stb12 said:

I think i’m right in saying all or the vast majority of referendums in Australia have failed?

Most of them have, in part due to the requirement to have the support of 4/6 of the states. One referendum failed with 62% national support in 1977. The Voice referendum actually looks to have a fairly neutral vote distribution (partly down to Queensland being so No voting), so would probably pass with a slim national majority, not that it is likely to achieve that at this point. 

From the polling that's been conducted it would seem that Queensland and Western Australia are more No-leaning compared to the national average, Victoria is the most Yes-leaning state, followed by NSW.

South Australia and Tasmania sit around the middle and are the key states for Yes to win the referendum.

[jamie]

Sept 3, 2023 16:48:27 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

From the polling that's been conducted it would seem that Queensland and Western Australia are more No-leaning compared to the national average, Victoria is the most Yes-leaning state, followed by NSW.

South Australia and Tasmania sit around the middle and are the key states for Yes to win the referendum.

Queensland tends to stand out as the state furthest from the national vote in favour of No. Western Australia was expected to be No leaning but has probably drifted further out due to the introduction of very bureaucratic Aboriginal land laws. On the Yes side, Victoria looks the likeliest state to vote Yes, but its not as far out as Queensland. New South Wales has been reported as also notably Yes leaning, but the actual data is suggestive of a rather weak lean. As you said, South Australia and Tasmania will decide the referendum. The latter may or may not be slightly Yes leaning, its hard to tell given its only ever a tiny subsample in national polling and Tasmania is prone to do weird things all the time (its also the only state with a Liberal government and the premier is a strong supporter of the Voice, go figure). 

All that said, this is increasingly likely to just be academic, given the Voice is currently behind in Victoria nevermind South Australia and Tasmania. 

[timrollpickering]

Tasmania is historically one of the hardest states to win in a referendum and also one of the least polled.

There's a lot of historic assertions about what it takes to win a referendum, a big one being that every one that passed was supported by both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition of the day. Of course there's only been one referendum in the last 35 years and party identification has declined but the trend suggests this one isn't going to break that "rule".

Lots of PMs have had big election success yet lost referendums, learning the hard way that throwing the other lot out or keeping them out big time doesn't always mean the country has undergone some great fundamental change. It hasn't stopped most of them going on to win the next election. Bob Hawke is perhaps the most prominent case as he managed to hold the three least successful referendums of all in 1988 but retained power in 1990.

[stb12]

Sept 3, 2023 19:28:01 GMT timrollpickering said:

Tasmania is historically one of the hardest states to win in a referendum and also one of the least polled.

There's a lot of historic assertions about what it takes to win a referendum, a big one being that every one that passed was supported by both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition of the day. Of course there's only been one referendum in the last 35 years and party identification has declined but the trend suggests this one isn't going to break that "rule".

Lots of PMs have had big election success yet lost referendums, learning the hard way that throwing the other lot out or keeping them out big time doesn't always mean the country has undergone some great fundamental change. It hasn't stopped most of them going on to win the next election. Bob Hawke is perhaps the most prominent case as he managed to hold the three least successful referendums of all in 1988 but retained power in 1990.

For that scenario and a republic the best chance would have been when Turnbull was Liberal leader, although a consensus seemed to grow that it shouldn't be addressed again while the Queen still lived

[ntyuk1707]

Sept 3, 2023 19:38:41 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 3, 2023 19:28:01 GMT timrollpickering said:

Tasmania is historically one of the hardest states to win in a referendum and also one of the least polled.

There's a lot of historic assertions about what it takes to win a referendum, a big one being that every one that passed was supported by both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition of the day. Of course there's only been one referendum in the last 35 years and party identification has declined but the trend suggests this one isn't going to break that "rule".

Lots of PMs have had big election success yet lost referendums, learning the hard way that throwing the other lot out or keeping them out big time doesn't always mean the country has undergone some great fundamental change. It hasn't stopped most of them going on to win the next election. Bob Hawke is perhaps the most prominent case as he managed to hold the three least successful referendums of all in 1988 but retained power in 1990.

For that scenario and a republic the best chance would have been when Turnbull was Liberal leader, although a consensus seemed to grow that it shouldn't be addressed again while the Queen still lived

Who are the likely frontrunners in a future Liberal leadership contest and what is the position likely to be on becoming a republic? 

As far as I can tell the Queensland LNP, the Nationals and the Country Liberals are more pro-monarchy, whereas the Liberal Party is mixed.

[stb12]

Sept 3, 2023 21:37:17 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Sept 3, 2023 19:38:41 GMT stb12 said:

For that scenario and a republic the best chance would have been when Turnbull was Liberal leader, although a consensus seemed to grow that it shouldn't be addressed again while the Queen still lived

Who are the likely frontrunners in a future Liberal leadership contest and what is the position likely to be on becoming a republic? 

As far as I can tell the Queensland LNP, the Nationals and the Country Liberals are more pro-monarchy, whereas the Liberal Party is mixed.

I’m not too sure about likely future leaders, Peter Dutton was unopposed and he comes from the more right wing part of the party that generally seems to be very pro-monarchy like Tony Abbott

However the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party Sussan Ley who was also elected unopposed after the 2022 election is a a Republican, you’d assume she would be a leadership contender at some point:

amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/people-were-fed-up-sussan-ley-on-her-punk-past-feminism-and-why-the-liberals-lost-20220609-p5asnp.html

[jamie]

Sept 3, 2023 21:37:17 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Who are the likely frontrunners in a future Liberal leadership contest and what is the position likely to be on becoming a republic? 

As far as I can tell the Queensland LNP, the Nationals and the Country Liberals are more pro-monarchy, whereas the Liberal Party is mixed.

Dutton got the leadership because there was no one else, and I’m not sure anyone has emerged since. The moderates have been decimated so the next leader will be heavily reliant on the right of the party if not from it, for what it’s worth. 

That’s a fair assessment. Support for the monarchy is broadly strongest in the more rural and English parts of the country, while support for a Republic is stronger in the inner city (whether old money or lefty gentrifiers) along with non-English migrant suburbs. The collapse of the Liberals in the former and their inability to yet win the latter means there probably isn’t much enthusiasm for a Republic within the party or from their voters. That said, the monarchy debate isn’t always a strictly ideological one, as the political class are a lot more supportive than the public and even some comfortably right wing Coalition members are republicans on Australian nationalist grounds. 

[stb12]

Sept 3, 2023 22:47:24 GMT jamie said:

Sept 3, 2023 21:37:17 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Who are the likely frontrunners in a future Liberal leadership contest and what is the position likely to be on becoming a republic? 

As far as I can tell the Queensland LNP, the Nationals and the Country Liberals are more pro-monarchy, whereas the Liberal Party is mixed.

Dutton got the leadership because there was no one else, and I’m not sure anyone has emerged since. The moderates have been decimated so the next leader will be heavily reliant on the right of the party if not from it, for what it’s worth. 

That’s a fair assessment. Support for the monarchy is broadly strongest in the more rural and English parts of the country, while support for a Republic is stronger in the inner city (whether old money or lefty gentrifiers) along with non-English migrant suburbs. The collapse of the Liberals in the former and their inability to yet win the latter means there probably isn’t much enthusiasm for a Republic within the party or from their voters. That said, the monarchy debate isn’t always a strictly ideological one, as the political class are a lot more supportive than the public and even some comfortably right wing Coalition members are republicans on Australian nationalist grounds. 

Largely by independents!

[pericles]

It's pretty obvious that in most settler colonial countries, the indigenous population is still significantly worse off than the majority and this is indisputably linked with the legacy of colonialism. In Australia, this is obviously true-Australian democracy does not work as well for Aboriginal Australians as it does for the rest of the population. They are around 30% of Australia's prison population for example, despite being around 3% of the general population, and around 10 years less in life expectancy (a gap which is shockingly widening, so Australia is not naturally trending towards progress and racial equality). These much worse outcomes are reflected pretty much across the board as is.

The Voice isn't going to eliminate these gaps, but the chance that it will make a difference is worth taking imo.

It is not about feeling guilty about the past. Australians, like New Zealanders, do need to understand history though and then fix the problems that exist right now so that racism is eliminated (as much as possible) as a fact of life in society, rather than just making the laws 'anti-racist' and leaving it that.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 3, 2023 19:28:01 GMT timrollpickering said:

Tasmania is historically one of the hardest states to win in a referendum and also one of the least polled.

Some analysis on the four state requirement. Queensland may be generally politically more of an outlier than usual at the moment so a strong No vote there has less risk for the overall Yes hope, though the general polls suggest that won't now be a factor.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/08/voice-polling-sleeping-double-majority.html

[borisminor]

Sept 3, 2023 21:37:17 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Sept 3, 2023 19:38:41 GMT stb12 said:

For that scenario and a republic the best chance would have been when Turnbull was Liberal leader, although a consensus seemed to grow that it shouldn't be addressed again while the Queen still lived

Who are the likely frontrunners in a future Liberal leadership contest and what is the position likely to be on becoming a republic? 

As far as I can tell the Queensland LNP, the Nationals and the Country Liberals are more pro-monarchy, whereas the Liberal Party is mixed.

Although he isn't in Parliament at the moment this from Christopher Pyne, former Leader of the House of Representatives, never fails to make me laugh.