Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
Aug 30, 2023 9:50:47 GMT
Pete Whitehead, J.G.Harston, and 2 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Aug 30, 2023 9:50:47 GMT
Under the 1888 Local Government Act a category of 'county boroughs' was created. These were towns of significant size and standing, generally with a population of over 50,000, that were to be independent from the shire counties in which they were located – the more modern equivalent would be the concept of the unitary authority. Only two Welsh urban units originally met the criteria – Cardiff and Swansea – but in 1891 Newport was added and then in 1908 a fourth town received the honour: Merthyr Tydfil. Merthyr’s population continued to grow, reaching a peak of 89,923 in 1921. Then something remarkable happened. It started to shrink. By 2001 it had fewer than 56,000 inhabitants and since then it has scarcely risen, being estimated at a stable 59,000 in 2021. Not only does this unusual demographic trajectory need explanation but it has consequences for parliamentary representation and boundaries.
Merthyr Tydfil is a place that resounds with the image and history of the Industrial Revolution in Britain, even just looking at the ward names still to be found within. Cyfarthfa ward represents the site of the great ironworks on the north-western edge of Merthyr founded in 1765 and best known under the ownership of the Crawshay family through the 18th and 19th centuries, adding steel production from 1884 before its final closure just after World War One; its dramatic industrial aspect was captured in the watercolours of Thomas Prytherch, for example. At the end of the 18th century the boom town of Merthyr Tydfil was the largest community in Wales. Even longer established was Dowlais, started in 1759 and the largest steel producer in the United Kingdom in the nineteenth century. Dowlais, in north eastern Merthyr, lasted until 1987 and is also still a ward name. The same is true of Plymouth, commemorating a third iron and steel works.
Nor is the other heavy industry for which Merthyr Tydfil is famed absent: we have a Merthyr Vale ward and a Bedlinog ward. Merthyr Vale colliery was opened in 1875 four miles south of the centre of the town, and sustained a number of communities including Aberfan, notoriously the site of an appalling disaster in 1966 when a colliery spoilt tip slid over a primary school, killing 116 children and 28 adults. The mine at Bedlinog was operative from 1878 to 1956, owned for most of its time in the private sector by GKN (Guest, Keen & Nettlefolds) – also the proprietors of both the Dowlais and Cyfarthfa iron and steel concerns. It all adds up to a true powerhouse of industry, which created great fortunes and great suffering, and has now passed into history; except that both traditions and physical scars remain prominent in the society and landscape of the Merthyr area.
Given the above, it can come as no surprise that Merthy Tydfil plays a major role in political history, principally as an early adopter of socialism and the Labour party. In the 1900 ‘khaki' general election the latter’s precursor, the Labour Representation Committee secured its first foothold in the Commons: just two MPs. One of them was elected for Merthyr Tydfil: the Scot, James Keir Hardie, who was to become its first parliamentary leader (and the other, Richard Bell, elected for Derby, was born in Merthyr Tydfil). Since that time the only occasion on which anyone other than a supporter of the Labour movement has been elected here was in 1918, when a Lloyd George Coalition Liberal won with a majority of 1,445. It is true that the strict continuity of Labour representation has also been interrupted by independently minded members. R.C.Wallhead was a radical who contested Merthyr as an ILP candidate in 1931, though he ‘re-defected’ to Labour itself in 1933. On the other hand when S.O.Davies, member since a 1934 byelection, was deselected on grounds of age before the 1970 election, he stood anyway as an Independent Socialist. The octogenarian (there is no clear public evidence of exactly how old he was) won a renowned victory, though he did pass away only two years later.
Merthyr Tydfil was already declining steeply in population, and since 1983 it has been supplemented by the northern section of the neighbouring valley to the east, Rhymney, historically in Monmouthshire (or Gwent) rather than Glamorgan, and also in a famous constituency - Ebbw Vale (Aneurin Bevan; Michael Foot). As expected, the new seat produced a series of massive Labour majorities, always over 20,000 before 2001, when the turnout in most constituencies went through the floor. Then in 2010 the Liberal Democrats reduced the lead to less than 5,000 - their greatest areas of strength in this brief period when they challenged, at least according to local election gains in 2008, were in Town and Plymouth wards. The days of ‘weighing the votes’ seemed numbered. But in fact a five figure lead was re-established in 2015 after the Clegg-Cameron coalition, and even in 2019 Gerald Jones retained a lead of over 10,500 at a time when Labour were weakened in many ‘valleys’ constituencies by the European issue. The Brexit party did get 11% but the Conservatives in second place hardly advanced at all, and Labour still received an overall majority.
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney are communities with long lasting problems. One striking Census figure from 2011 was that this constituency was in the top two out of 650 for self-ascribed ‘bad heath’ and top three for ’very bad health’. This is even more grim an indicator when it is noted that the age range is not particularly elderly, which usually correlates with the health ranking. If noted above were many wards redolent of an industrial history, the name of Gurnos ward for example is best known for its housing problems (it is a bleak windy, hilly 1950s-1970s social housing estate due north of Merthyr centre), its long term employment, and its single parent families, often very young. Overall the seat’s Census figures record very high figures for long term sick and disabled, no educational qualifications and very few upper level professional and managerial workers – even by the standards of most of the South Wales valleys. This is now a largely post-industrial economy. Even the most well known replacement employer after the closure of the last steelworks and coal mines, Hoover, transferred all their production abroad in 2009. There is a large call centre and a Welsh Government office in Merthyr. At least the medical trial that led to the unexpected discovery of Viagra too place in the town in the 1990s, but generally it could still be described as in need of a lift.
Another way it needs a boost is in its electorate. This is not only because of the way the population has failed to keep up with the rise across Britain, but because Wales is to lose no fewer than eight seats at Westminster. The revised proposals of the Welsh Boundary Commission have suggested that the solution should be to keep the whole of the Merthyr Tydfil borough together, but as this adds up to fewer than 45,000 voters, the electorate should no longer be topped up by the Rhymney Valley section, which is now to be paired again with Blaenau Gwent, as it had been before 1983. Instead, Merthyr’s new partner will be the valley to its west, in the form of the upper section of the Cynon Valley. This represents more than half of the present Cynon Valley constituency (58%), which is one of the eight to be effectively abolished: running from Hirwaun at the head of the valley, through the largest community in the valley, Aberdare, to include (after the enquiry process) the two wards of Aberaman. The southern and minority section of Cynon Valley including Mountain Ash and Abercynon are now to be linked with Pontypridd. Demographically the deprivation indicators become slightly less extreme, but still well on the 'poorer' side f average.
The initially proposed new name of this seat had been Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare, but in the revised document this was changed to Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon in English, with a Welsh language alternative of Merthyr Tudful a Chynon Uchaf. Then in the final report the name reverted to the original proposal. The total electorate would now be nearly 75,000, ending decades of over-representation – admittedly of places with problems in need of attention. These changes set up a clash between the two sitting Labour MPs, Gerald Jones and Beth Winter of Cynon Valley, which the former won in June 2023 by the narrow margin of 231 to 215. However it seems likely that Mr Jones will enjoy a considerably more comfortable majority than that 16 votes when he seeks to extend his career in the House of Commons; in the May 2021 Senedd election for the coterminous Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney seat, the Labour share went up to 61.5%, with Plaid Cymru now taking a distant second place, and there was a similar result in Cynon Valley in 2021.
There is one slight caveat to Labour's historic dominance in the Merthyr based seat. The party has had no trouble winning all the wards in the Rhymney section in Caerphilly borough elections, and they won all the Cynon Valley wards to be transferred to this new seat in May 2022 except Hirwaun (Plaid Cymru). But Labour only took half the Merthyr Tydfil council seats in those most recent local elections. Merthyr Tydfil is once again a county borough - but all the other winners apart from Labour were Independents with no other party having any success at all. It is pretty much impossible to extrapolate from ward results to general elections in these circumstances, but Labour generally do better at local level in the ex-mining wards such as Merthyr Vale and Treharris, while Independents took most wards in Merthyr town itself. Labour and independence (Wallhead, S.O.Davies) ... two political characteristics prominent in this neck of the woods for a very long time.
2011 Census, old boundaries ranks UK
Age 65+ 16.7% 323/650
Bad health 8.7% 2/650
Very bad health 2.8% 3/650
Owner-occupied 64.4% 399 /650
Private rented 11.3% 507/650
Social rented 22.5% 159/650
White 97.9% 140/650
Black 0.2% 511/650
Asian 1.0% 504/650
Born in Wales 89.4% 5/650
No religion 37.4% 18/650
Managerial & professional 20.0%
Higher managerial or professional 4.5% 632/650
Higher professional 3.2% 637/650
Routine & Semi-routine 37.8%
Routine 19.2% 11/650
Long term sick or disabled 10.0% 9/650
Degree level 16.4% 603/650
No qualifications 35.7% 16/650
Students 7.0% 301/650
2021 Census, new boundaries ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 19.7% 269/575
Owner occupied 64.3% 326/575
Private rented 16.3% 370/575
Social rented 19.4% 167/575
White 97.4% 45/575
Black 0.2% 561/575
Asian 1.3% 472/575
No religion 51.8% 12/575
Managerial & professional 24.6% 493/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 46/575
Degree level 25.4% 483/575
No qualifications 26.0% 35/575
Students 5.7% 264/575
General Election 2019: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Gerald Jones 16,913 52.4 −14.4
Conservative Sara Jones 6,307 19.6 +1.5
Brexit Party David Jones 3,604 11.2 N/A
Plaid Cymru Mark Evans 2,446 7.6 −0.6
Independent David Hughes 1,860 5.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Brendan D’Cruz 1,116 3.5 +1.0
Lab Majority 10,606 32.8 −15.9
Turnout 32,246 57.4 −3.1
Registered electors 56,322
Labour hold
Swings
8.0 Lab to C
12.8 Lab to Brexit
Boundary Changes
The new Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare will consist of
79.7% of Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
58.1% of Cynon Valley
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Merthyr Tydfil is a place that resounds with the image and history of the Industrial Revolution in Britain, even just looking at the ward names still to be found within. Cyfarthfa ward represents the site of the great ironworks on the north-western edge of Merthyr founded in 1765 and best known under the ownership of the Crawshay family through the 18th and 19th centuries, adding steel production from 1884 before its final closure just after World War One; its dramatic industrial aspect was captured in the watercolours of Thomas Prytherch, for example. At the end of the 18th century the boom town of Merthyr Tydfil was the largest community in Wales. Even longer established was Dowlais, started in 1759 and the largest steel producer in the United Kingdom in the nineteenth century. Dowlais, in north eastern Merthyr, lasted until 1987 and is also still a ward name. The same is true of Plymouth, commemorating a third iron and steel works.
Nor is the other heavy industry for which Merthyr Tydfil is famed absent: we have a Merthyr Vale ward and a Bedlinog ward. Merthyr Vale colliery was opened in 1875 four miles south of the centre of the town, and sustained a number of communities including Aberfan, notoriously the site of an appalling disaster in 1966 when a colliery spoilt tip slid over a primary school, killing 116 children and 28 adults. The mine at Bedlinog was operative from 1878 to 1956, owned for most of its time in the private sector by GKN (Guest, Keen & Nettlefolds) – also the proprietors of both the Dowlais and Cyfarthfa iron and steel concerns. It all adds up to a true powerhouse of industry, which created great fortunes and great suffering, and has now passed into history; except that both traditions and physical scars remain prominent in the society and landscape of the Merthyr area.
Given the above, it can come as no surprise that Merthy Tydfil plays a major role in political history, principally as an early adopter of socialism and the Labour party. In the 1900 ‘khaki' general election the latter’s precursor, the Labour Representation Committee secured its first foothold in the Commons: just two MPs. One of them was elected for Merthyr Tydfil: the Scot, James Keir Hardie, who was to become its first parliamentary leader (and the other, Richard Bell, elected for Derby, was born in Merthyr Tydfil). Since that time the only occasion on which anyone other than a supporter of the Labour movement has been elected here was in 1918, when a Lloyd George Coalition Liberal won with a majority of 1,445. It is true that the strict continuity of Labour representation has also been interrupted by independently minded members. R.C.Wallhead was a radical who contested Merthyr as an ILP candidate in 1931, though he ‘re-defected’ to Labour itself in 1933. On the other hand when S.O.Davies, member since a 1934 byelection, was deselected on grounds of age before the 1970 election, he stood anyway as an Independent Socialist. The octogenarian (there is no clear public evidence of exactly how old he was) won a renowned victory, though he did pass away only two years later.
Merthyr Tydfil was already declining steeply in population, and since 1983 it has been supplemented by the northern section of the neighbouring valley to the east, Rhymney, historically in Monmouthshire (or Gwent) rather than Glamorgan, and also in a famous constituency - Ebbw Vale (Aneurin Bevan; Michael Foot). As expected, the new seat produced a series of massive Labour majorities, always over 20,000 before 2001, when the turnout in most constituencies went through the floor. Then in 2010 the Liberal Democrats reduced the lead to less than 5,000 - their greatest areas of strength in this brief period when they challenged, at least according to local election gains in 2008, were in Town and Plymouth wards. The days of ‘weighing the votes’ seemed numbered. But in fact a five figure lead was re-established in 2015 after the Clegg-Cameron coalition, and even in 2019 Gerald Jones retained a lead of over 10,500 at a time when Labour were weakened in many ‘valleys’ constituencies by the European issue. The Brexit party did get 11% but the Conservatives in second place hardly advanced at all, and Labour still received an overall majority.
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney are communities with long lasting problems. One striking Census figure from 2011 was that this constituency was in the top two out of 650 for self-ascribed ‘bad heath’ and top three for ’very bad health’. This is even more grim an indicator when it is noted that the age range is not particularly elderly, which usually correlates with the health ranking. If noted above were many wards redolent of an industrial history, the name of Gurnos ward for example is best known for its housing problems (it is a bleak windy, hilly 1950s-1970s social housing estate due north of Merthyr centre), its long term employment, and its single parent families, often very young. Overall the seat’s Census figures record very high figures for long term sick and disabled, no educational qualifications and very few upper level professional and managerial workers – even by the standards of most of the South Wales valleys. This is now a largely post-industrial economy. Even the most well known replacement employer after the closure of the last steelworks and coal mines, Hoover, transferred all their production abroad in 2009. There is a large call centre and a Welsh Government office in Merthyr. At least the medical trial that led to the unexpected discovery of Viagra too place in the town in the 1990s, but generally it could still be described as in need of a lift.
Another way it needs a boost is in its electorate. This is not only because of the way the population has failed to keep up with the rise across Britain, but because Wales is to lose no fewer than eight seats at Westminster. The revised proposals of the Welsh Boundary Commission have suggested that the solution should be to keep the whole of the Merthyr Tydfil borough together, but as this adds up to fewer than 45,000 voters, the electorate should no longer be topped up by the Rhymney Valley section, which is now to be paired again with Blaenau Gwent, as it had been before 1983. Instead, Merthyr’s new partner will be the valley to its west, in the form of the upper section of the Cynon Valley. This represents more than half of the present Cynon Valley constituency (58%), which is one of the eight to be effectively abolished: running from Hirwaun at the head of the valley, through the largest community in the valley, Aberdare, to include (after the enquiry process) the two wards of Aberaman. The southern and minority section of Cynon Valley including Mountain Ash and Abercynon are now to be linked with Pontypridd. Demographically the deprivation indicators become slightly less extreme, but still well on the 'poorer' side f average.
The initially proposed new name of this seat had been Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare, but in the revised document this was changed to Merthyr Tydfil and Upper Cynon in English, with a Welsh language alternative of Merthyr Tudful a Chynon Uchaf. Then in the final report the name reverted to the original proposal. The total electorate would now be nearly 75,000, ending decades of over-representation – admittedly of places with problems in need of attention. These changes set up a clash between the two sitting Labour MPs, Gerald Jones and Beth Winter of Cynon Valley, which the former won in June 2023 by the narrow margin of 231 to 215. However it seems likely that Mr Jones will enjoy a considerably more comfortable majority than that 16 votes when he seeks to extend his career in the House of Commons; in the May 2021 Senedd election for the coterminous Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney seat, the Labour share went up to 61.5%, with Plaid Cymru now taking a distant second place, and there was a similar result in Cynon Valley in 2021.
There is one slight caveat to Labour's historic dominance in the Merthyr based seat. The party has had no trouble winning all the wards in the Rhymney section in Caerphilly borough elections, and they won all the Cynon Valley wards to be transferred to this new seat in May 2022 except Hirwaun (Plaid Cymru). But Labour only took half the Merthyr Tydfil council seats in those most recent local elections. Merthyr Tydfil is once again a county borough - but all the other winners apart from Labour were Independents with no other party having any success at all. It is pretty much impossible to extrapolate from ward results to general elections in these circumstances, but Labour generally do better at local level in the ex-mining wards such as Merthyr Vale and Treharris, while Independents took most wards in Merthyr town itself. Labour and independence (Wallhead, S.O.Davies) ... two political characteristics prominent in this neck of the woods for a very long time.
2011 Census, old boundaries ranks UK
Age 65+ 16.7% 323/650
Bad health 8.7% 2/650
Very bad health 2.8% 3/650
Owner-occupied 64.4% 399 /650
Private rented 11.3% 507/650
Social rented 22.5% 159/650
White 97.9% 140/650
Black 0.2% 511/650
Asian 1.0% 504/650
Born in Wales 89.4% 5/650
No religion 37.4% 18/650
Managerial & professional 20.0%
Higher managerial or professional 4.5% 632/650
Higher professional 3.2% 637/650
Routine & Semi-routine 37.8%
Routine 19.2% 11/650
Long term sick or disabled 10.0% 9/650
Degree level 16.4% 603/650
No qualifications 35.7% 16/650
Students 7.0% 301/650
2021 Census, new boundaries ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 19.7% 269/575
Owner occupied 64.3% 326/575
Private rented 16.3% 370/575
Social rented 19.4% 167/575
White 97.4% 45/575
Black 0.2% 561/575
Asian 1.3% 472/575
No religion 51.8% 12/575
Managerial & professional 24.6% 493/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 46/575
Degree level 25.4% 483/575
No qualifications 26.0% 35/575
Students 5.7% 264/575
General Election 2019: Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Gerald Jones 16,913 52.4 −14.4
Conservative Sara Jones 6,307 19.6 +1.5
Brexit Party David Jones 3,604 11.2 N/A
Plaid Cymru Mark Evans 2,446 7.6 −0.6
Independent David Hughes 1,860 5.8 N/A
Liberal Democrats Brendan D’Cruz 1,116 3.5 +1.0
Lab Majority 10,606 32.8 −15.9
Turnout 32,246 57.4 −3.1
Registered electors 56,322
Labour hold
Swings
8.0 Lab to C
12.8 Lab to Brexit
Boundary Changes
The new Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare will consist of
79.7% of Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
58.1% of Cynon Valley
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 22292 | 51.7% |
| Con | 8882 | 20.6% |
| Brexit | 4621 | 10.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 3513 | 8.2% |
| LD | 1434 | 3.3% |
| Oths | 2364 | 5.5% |
| Majority | 13410 | 31.1% |
