Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 29, 2023 15:23:17 GMT
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh is a burgh constituency covering areas between Edinburgh's Old Town south of Princes Street in the City Centre and the Victorian coastal resorts of Portobello and Musselburgh on the North Sea. In the north of the seat, towards Leith is the Restalrig estate, and south is the ex-council estates of Niddrie, Craigmillar and Greendykes nearing the city bypass.
Despite covering many of the city's most iconic sites including the Scottish Parliament building, Edinburgh Castle, Arthur's Seat and the Royal Mile, large parts of this seat do not feel like they belong within Edinburgh. This is due to geographical isolation from the main part of the city owing to Arthur's Seat, A-roads, retail parks, industrial estates and railway lines giving a sense of separation in areas like Portobello, Craigmillar, Niddrie and Greendykes from the rest of the city.
The isolated nature of parts of the seat from the rest of the city is also reflected in its political and demographic profile. Edinburgh East is the only part of Edinburgh which has never returned a Conservative & Unionist MP since expansions to the franchise in 1918 and 1922, voting for Labour's Thomas Drummond Sheils in 1929, who was then ousted by the Liberals backed by the Unionists in 1931. From the 1935 general election until 2015, the constituency was then represented by Labour MPs, and since 2015 it has been represented by the SNP's Tommy Shephard. The area has had no shortage of high profile candidates. In the Scottish Parliament, the overlapping Edinburgh East & Musselburgh constituency was won from Labour by senior SNP MSP Kenny MacAskhill at the 2007 Scottish election, who is now the MP for neighbouring East Lothian having been elected as a member of the SNP who has since defected to Alex Salmond's Alba Party. In 2016, the reconfigured Edinburgh Eastern constituency of the Scottish Parliament was won by Ash Regan, the third-placed candidate at the recent SNP leadership election, who beat then Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale to win the seat, and Regan nearly doubled her majority to over 10,000 votes (23.4%) at the 2021 Scottish election. Edinburgh East ranks close to the UK-average in terms of deprivation but it is the most deprived constituency within Edinburgh, with higher rates of private and social renting and lower rates of owner occupation compared to the national average.
In the western side of the seat, the Old Town, Canongate, Southside and Dumiedykes areas have a high proportion of students studying at the University of Edinburgh. These City Centre areas are near to the city's historic and picturesque Old Town area, which includes the Royal Mile between Holyrood Castle and Edinburgh Castle, lined with souvenir and whisky shops, as well as St Giles Cathedral - where a thanksgiving service was held for Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II last year as part of her funeral procession - and near to where several sites which inspired JK Rowling's Harry Potter series are located including Victoria Street and Greyfriars Bobby's graveyard. It is the heart of Edinburgh's booming tourist sector, with pubs and clubs towards the Grass Market area.
Predominantly made up of tenements, closes and student apartments, the demographics of this area are mixed, with more affluence in townhouses and luxury apartments in the Southside contrasting the more run-down ex-council flats of Dumiedykes and Canongate. At the 2022 Council elections, the Greens tended to perform strongest in areas with a higher proportion of students, with the SNP topping the poll in the Old Town, and Labour in third-place throughout. Despite having voted for pro-independence parties at last year's council elections, the area has a high proportion of residents born in other parts of the UK compared to elsewhere in Scotland and it is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum by a margin of 59% No to 41% Yes, one of the best parts of the seat for the BetterTogether campaign.
In the eastern periphery of the Old Town is the city's Abbeyhill area within the Craigentinny & Duddingston ward. Abbeyhill is primarily made up of closes and tenements. East of here along London Road the profile begins to change at Jock's Lodge and south, where affluent townhouses give way to detached bungalows in Meadowfield, contrasting the highly deprived ex-council estates of Nairne and Northfield located west and east of here respectively. Further east, are the more suburban detached bungalows of Mountcastle, and east again, across the railway line and towards the North Sea, are yet more suburban bungalows in the Craigentinny area. North-west of Craigentinny are the ex-council estates of Restalrig and Lochend, which include some of the most deprived parts of Edinburgh, dominated by ex-council flats.
Craigentinny & Duddingston ward is, on the whole, divided between more owner-occupied areas made up of detached bungalows and townhouses in contrast to some of Edinburgh's most deprived ex-council estates. This is reflected within the ward's political profile, with a 32% SNP vote, 31% Conservative vote and 23% Labour vote in Craigentinny at last year's council elections contrasting a 51% SNP vote to 20% Labour vote in the Restalrig estate. Overall, the ward voted 37% SNP, 21% Labour, 19% Conservative and 16% Green last year, with the Conservatives performing best in suburban areas, SNP best in ex-council estates and Greens best towards the more metropolitian areas of Abbeyhill and Meadowbank in the west of the ward, and Labour support largely consistent across the ward. But despite having voted more for pro-independence parties last year, the ward itself is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence at the 2014 referendum at 53% No to 47% Yes.
Moving south of Meadowfield is the Portobello & Craigmillar ward. Despite being contained within the name of Duddingston & Craigtenny ward, confusingly, Duddingston is in fact mostly found in the north-west of the Craigmillar & Portobello ward. It is affluent bungalowland, but just south of Duddingston is yet more deprived ex-council flats and terraced housing in Bingham and Magdalene. East of here, across the railway line, is the Victorian seaside resort of Portobello, which contains a mixture of trendy townhouses and flats and rougher tenements and ex-council houses, which merges into the wealthy townhouses and desirable apartments of Joppa to the east and bungalows of Brunstane to the south of here. Portobello beach is a popular destination in Edinburgh, and the area has become 'yuppie-fied' with a younger and more progressive identity than elsewhere in the city. Crossing the railway line once again and beyond Fort Kinnaird, Europe's largest outdoor retail park, towards the city bypass is the ex-council estates of Niddrie, Craigmillar and Greendykes, historically among Edinburgh's roughest and most deprived areas which have sustained issues with drug abuse and anti-social behaviour. The expansion of the city has witnessed yet more social housing added to this area.
Portobello & Craigmillar ward's political and demographic profile is very similar to neighbouring Duddingston & Craigentinny ward, with contrasting areas of relative wealth and deprivation, and a more metropolitian and progressive segment on the periphery in Portobello. Duddingston is the only part of the ward to not vote SNP at last year's council elections, with the Conservatives taking 29% of vote to the SNP's 25% and Labour's 24%. In contrast, the Niddrie estate voted 56% SNP to 20% Labour, Portobello voted 32% SNP, 31% Green and 21% Labour, and the ward overall voted 37% SNP, 24% Labour, 16% Green and 15% Conservative. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the ward is estimated to have rejected independence on a marginal 52% No vote to 48% Yes, with Duddingston having voted 62% No in contrast to a 68% Yes vote in Niddrie.
The north-east of the seat incorporates the tenements and townhouses of Leith Links and tenements east of Easter Road. These areas are broadly similar to the rest of the seat, returning a marginal result at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and having the SNP and Greens in first and second place respectively ahead of Labour in third.
Boundary changes here have removed the Prestonfield area from the seat to be replaced by central and western parts of Musselburgh in East Lothian, a better area for Labour than elsewhere in the constituency with an estimated 53% No vote at the 2014 referendum, matching the seat as a whole. These changes will significantly improve Labour's prospects here, and the seat represents a key bellweather for the whole of Scotland.
Overall, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh contains a mixed political and demographic profile, including middle-class bungalows and townhouses, working-class flats and terraced housing, and metropolitan apartments and student areas towards the Old Town of Edinburgh, as well as the distinctly progressive Portobello area. It is currently held by the SNP, with Labour forming the main opposition party more than 10,000 votes behind of the SNP. There are areas of strength for the Greens and the Conservatives in parts of this seat, which adds to the challenge here for Labour. To win here, Labour needs to win across the different segments of Scottish society contained within this seat.
It is a challenge for Labour, but based on current polling it is within reach, and this marks Edinburgh East as an important national bellweather.
2014 independence referendum result:
NO: 53%
YES: 47%
Despite covering many of the city's most iconic sites including the Scottish Parliament building, Edinburgh Castle, Arthur's Seat and the Royal Mile, large parts of this seat do not feel like they belong within Edinburgh. This is due to geographical isolation from the main part of the city owing to Arthur's Seat, A-roads, retail parks, industrial estates and railway lines giving a sense of separation in areas like Portobello, Craigmillar, Niddrie and Greendykes from the rest of the city.
The isolated nature of parts of the seat from the rest of the city is also reflected in its political and demographic profile. Edinburgh East is the only part of Edinburgh which has never returned a Conservative & Unionist MP since expansions to the franchise in 1918 and 1922, voting for Labour's Thomas Drummond Sheils in 1929, who was then ousted by the Liberals backed by the Unionists in 1931. From the 1935 general election until 2015, the constituency was then represented by Labour MPs, and since 2015 it has been represented by the SNP's Tommy Shephard. The area has had no shortage of high profile candidates. In the Scottish Parliament, the overlapping Edinburgh East & Musselburgh constituency was won from Labour by senior SNP MSP Kenny MacAskhill at the 2007 Scottish election, who is now the MP for neighbouring East Lothian having been elected as a member of the SNP who has since defected to Alex Salmond's Alba Party. In 2016, the reconfigured Edinburgh Eastern constituency of the Scottish Parliament was won by Ash Regan, the third-placed candidate at the recent SNP leadership election, who beat then Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale to win the seat, and Regan nearly doubled her majority to over 10,000 votes (23.4%) at the 2021 Scottish election. Edinburgh East ranks close to the UK-average in terms of deprivation but it is the most deprived constituency within Edinburgh, with higher rates of private and social renting and lower rates of owner occupation compared to the national average.
In the western side of the seat, the Old Town, Canongate, Southside and Dumiedykes areas have a high proportion of students studying at the University of Edinburgh. These City Centre areas are near to the city's historic and picturesque Old Town area, which includes the Royal Mile between Holyrood Castle and Edinburgh Castle, lined with souvenir and whisky shops, as well as St Giles Cathedral - where a thanksgiving service was held for Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II last year as part of her funeral procession - and near to where several sites which inspired JK Rowling's Harry Potter series are located including Victoria Street and Greyfriars Bobby's graveyard. It is the heart of Edinburgh's booming tourist sector, with pubs and clubs towards the Grass Market area.
Predominantly made up of tenements, closes and student apartments, the demographics of this area are mixed, with more affluence in townhouses and luxury apartments in the Southside contrasting the more run-down ex-council flats of Dumiedykes and Canongate. At the 2022 Council elections, the Greens tended to perform strongest in areas with a higher proportion of students, with the SNP topping the poll in the Old Town, and Labour in third-place throughout. Despite having voted for pro-independence parties at last year's council elections, the area has a high proportion of residents born in other parts of the UK compared to elsewhere in Scotland and it is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum by a margin of 59% No to 41% Yes, one of the best parts of the seat for the BetterTogether campaign.
In the eastern periphery of the Old Town is the city's Abbeyhill area within the Craigentinny & Duddingston ward. Abbeyhill is primarily made up of closes and tenements. East of here along London Road the profile begins to change at Jock's Lodge and south, where affluent townhouses give way to detached bungalows in Meadowfield, contrasting the highly deprived ex-council estates of Nairne and Northfield located west and east of here respectively. Further east, are the more suburban detached bungalows of Mountcastle, and east again, across the railway line and towards the North Sea, are yet more suburban bungalows in the Craigentinny area. North-west of Craigentinny are the ex-council estates of Restalrig and Lochend, which include some of the most deprived parts of Edinburgh, dominated by ex-council flats.
Craigentinny & Duddingston ward is, on the whole, divided between more owner-occupied areas made up of detached bungalows and townhouses in contrast to some of Edinburgh's most deprived ex-council estates. This is reflected within the ward's political profile, with a 32% SNP vote, 31% Conservative vote and 23% Labour vote in Craigentinny at last year's council elections contrasting a 51% SNP vote to 20% Labour vote in the Restalrig estate. Overall, the ward voted 37% SNP, 21% Labour, 19% Conservative and 16% Green last year, with the Conservatives performing best in suburban areas, SNP best in ex-council estates and Greens best towards the more metropolitian areas of Abbeyhill and Meadowbank in the west of the ward, and Labour support largely consistent across the ward. But despite having voted more for pro-independence parties last year, the ward itself is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence at the 2014 referendum at 53% No to 47% Yes.
Moving south of Meadowfield is the Portobello & Craigmillar ward. Despite being contained within the name of Duddingston & Craigtenny ward, confusingly, Duddingston is in fact mostly found in the north-west of the Craigmillar & Portobello ward. It is affluent bungalowland, but just south of Duddingston is yet more deprived ex-council flats and terraced housing in Bingham and Magdalene. East of here, across the railway line, is the Victorian seaside resort of Portobello, which contains a mixture of trendy townhouses and flats and rougher tenements and ex-council houses, which merges into the wealthy townhouses and desirable apartments of Joppa to the east and bungalows of Brunstane to the south of here. Portobello beach is a popular destination in Edinburgh, and the area has become 'yuppie-fied' with a younger and more progressive identity than elsewhere in the city. Crossing the railway line once again and beyond Fort Kinnaird, Europe's largest outdoor retail park, towards the city bypass is the ex-council estates of Niddrie, Craigmillar and Greendykes, historically among Edinburgh's roughest and most deprived areas which have sustained issues with drug abuse and anti-social behaviour. The expansion of the city has witnessed yet more social housing added to this area.
Portobello & Craigmillar ward's political and demographic profile is very similar to neighbouring Duddingston & Craigentinny ward, with contrasting areas of relative wealth and deprivation, and a more metropolitian and progressive segment on the periphery in Portobello. Duddingston is the only part of the ward to not vote SNP at last year's council elections, with the Conservatives taking 29% of vote to the SNP's 25% and Labour's 24%. In contrast, the Niddrie estate voted 56% SNP to 20% Labour, Portobello voted 32% SNP, 31% Green and 21% Labour, and the ward overall voted 37% SNP, 24% Labour, 16% Green and 15% Conservative. At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, the ward is estimated to have rejected independence on a marginal 52% No vote to 48% Yes, with Duddingston having voted 62% No in contrast to a 68% Yes vote in Niddrie.
The north-east of the seat incorporates the tenements and townhouses of Leith Links and tenements east of Easter Road. These areas are broadly similar to the rest of the seat, returning a marginal result at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and having the SNP and Greens in first and second place respectively ahead of Labour in third.
Boundary changes here have removed the Prestonfield area from the seat to be replaced by central and western parts of Musselburgh in East Lothian, a better area for Labour than elsewhere in the constituency with an estimated 53% No vote at the 2014 referendum, matching the seat as a whole. These changes will significantly improve Labour's prospects here, and the seat represents a key bellweather for the whole of Scotland.
Overall, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh contains a mixed political and demographic profile, including middle-class bungalows and townhouses, working-class flats and terraced housing, and metropolitan apartments and student areas towards the Old Town of Edinburgh, as well as the distinctly progressive Portobello area. It is currently held by the SNP, with Labour forming the main opposition party more than 10,000 votes behind of the SNP. There are areas of strength for the Greens and the Conservatives in parts of this seat, which adds to the challenge here for Labour. To win here, Labour needs to win across the different segments of Scottish society contained within this seat.
It is a challenge for Labour, but based on current polling it is within reach, and this marks Edinburgh East as an important national bellweather.
2014 independence referendum result:
NO: 53%
YES: 47%
