Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 29, 2023 15:00:44 GMT
Midlothian is a county constituency covering the Midlothian Council area south of Edinburgh between the Pentland Hills to the north-west and the Moorfoot Hills to the south and bordering East Lothian to the east and the Scottish Borders to the south and west.
In many respects, Midlothian's demographic profile is a microcosm of Scotland: it has a near equal distribution of areas which are more deprived and less deprived than the Scottish average, a similar age profile to the country as a whole and a similar proportion of residents born elsewhere in the UK.
Most of Midlothian's towns and villages are former mining communities, but as Scotland's fastest growing area the county has experienced substantial new build development over the past two decades, which is set to continue into the foreseeable future. And unlike other former mining areas in Lanarkshire, Ayrshire and Fife, Midlothian contains pockets of affluence in the western periphery of Penicuik, eastern periphery of Bonnyrigg, commuter area of Eskbank in western Dalkeith and in villages like Auchendinny, Roslin and Fala. In fact, apart from Mayfield all towns and villages here contain some suburban component, many of which have been developed within the last two decades.
As you might expect, Midlothian was represented by Labour MPs from the 1950 UK general election until the SNP's Owen Thompson won the seat in 2015, briefly returning to Labour at the 2017 general election before the seat was regained by Mr Thompson of the SNP in 2019. Before 1950, the former Midlothian & Peebles Northern seat primarily returned Conservative/Unionist MPs from its creation at the 1918 general election until its abolishment in 1950. In the Scottish Parliament, the majority of Midlothian was represented by Labour until the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election, in which the SNP's Colin Beattie gained Midlothian North & Musselburgh and list MSP Christine Grahame won Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale for the party, which they hold to this day. So broadly speaking, the seat's political representation has been representative of Scotland as a whole though with notable exceptions such as Labour's win in 2017.
Driving from Edinburgh into Midlothian and past Straiton retail park which includes Edinburgh's Ikea branch, you would be mistaken for thinking you had even left the city at all. This is because in spite of its geographic size, Midlothian is highly urbanised, with more than two-thirds of the seat's electors clustered around the towns of Dalkeith, Bonnyrigg, Loanhead, Mayfield, Newtongrange and Gorebridge, an urban area running from the outskirts of Edinburgh.
The main town of Dalkeith is very much a town of two parts, containing Midlothian's most deprived communities in its eastern half and some of the county's most affluent areas in the Eskbank area to the west of the town. North of the town and bordering Edinburgh's Gilmerton estate is the former mining village of Danderhall and the adjacent hamlets of Newton and Millerhill. Danderhall and its nearby communities sit on the 'Edinburgh side' of the Edinburgh City bypass, unlike the rest of Midlothian, and for all intents and purposes it is an old mining village turned Edinburgh suburb. Danderhall and eastern Dalkeith form part of the Dalkeith ward, which has remained loyal to the Labour Party for many years, returning a 46% Labour vote and 35% SNP vote at last year's council elections. This ward is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence at the 2014 referendum by 59% No to 41% Yes.
The Eskbank area of Dalkeith forms part of the Midlothian East ward, which is easily the most competitive area of Midlothian for the Conservatives. The ward boundary covers the far-east of Midlothian, bordering onto East Lothian and the Scottish Borders, and encompassing the more rural villages of Pathhead and Fala which feel more like Borders villages than part of Midlothian. In between the Eskbank area and Pathhead sits Mayfield, a 1950s overspill ex-coal mining town whose deprived working class demography contrasts leafy Esbank and its adjoining suburb of Newbattle. At last year's council elections, Midlothian East voted 34% SNP, 30% Labour and 22% Conservative, having previously had the Conservatives marginally out in front in 2017. Mayfield is the best part of the ward for the SNP with Labour running a reasonable second-place, while last year Newbattle, Eskbank, Fala and Pathhead saw a three-way contest between the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP. The ward is estimated to have returned the strongest 'No' vote to independence in Midlothian at the 2014 Scottish referendum at 61% No to 39% Yes, ranging from 70% No vote in Eskbank to 54% No vote in Mayfield.
West of Mayfield sits Bonnyrigg, another former mining town which includes affluent suburbs on its northern, eastern and southern perimeter and ex-council housing in central and western areas. Bonnyrigg, much like eastern Dalkeith, has retained a stronger loyalty to the Labour Party compared to elsewhere in Scotland, with Labour taking 40% of the vote at last year's council elections to the SNP's 35%. Like the Dalkeith ward, this area is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum by 59% No to 41% Yes.
And in between Bonnyrigg and Mayfield and heading south towards the Scottish Borders sits the ex-mining towns of Newtongrange and Gorebridge. These communities are, for the most part, quite deprived like Mayfield with a few suburban streets on the outskirts. Like much of Midlothian, at last year's council elections these towns were marginally contested between Labour and the SNP, with Newtongrange being the better town for the SNP and Gorebridge being better for Labour. The Midlothian South ward, whilst large in size, is dominated by the two towns. Just south of Gorebridge is the more suburban village of North Middleton, which includes a number of new build developments. The remaining western segment of the ward covers around a third of the total land area of Midlothian, but only contains one settlement - Temple, sitting on the winding road between Gorebridge in southern Midlothian and Penicuik in the west. This area is rural and remote, but very depopulated to the point where it is difficult to gauge its electoral behaviour, though based on a higher 'British' national identity here compared to elsewhere in the seat at the 2011 census, rurality, and affluence, it is likely better for the Conservatives than elsewhere in Midlothian. Midlothian South ward on the whole was fairly split on the independence question, with a Yes vote in Newtongrange cancelled out by a No vote in Gorebridge, North Middleton and Temple, to give the ward an overall No vote of 53% No to 47% Yes.
Heading back towards Edinburgh, the Midlothian West ward covers the interlinked ex-coal mining settlements of Straiton and Loanhead on the very outskirts of Edinburgh, and villages south of here including Glencourse, Bilston, Rosewell, Auchdinney and Rosilin. Rosilin is the home of Rosslyn Chapel which was supposedly linked to Free Masonry and the Templar Order. This became popularised by the inclusion of the chapel in Darien Brown's Da Vinci Code, making it into something of a tourist attraction. The ward's demographics are quite mixed and broadly average for Midlothian, with Labour polling ahead in Rosewell and the SNP vote being weaker in Auchdinney and Rosilin, and strongest in Loanhead, Straiton, Bilston and Glencourse. At last year's council elections, the ward returned 37% SNP, 27% Labour, 18% Conservative and 10% Green, and at the 2014 independence referendum this area was estimated to have followed the 55% No 45% Yes result experienced in the rest of Scotland, with a stronger Yes vote in settlements closer to the city of Edinburgh such as Straiton, Loanhead and Bilston.
Midlothian's final ward sits in the west of the constituency on the road to West Linton and Peebles in the Scottish Borders, in a sense 'out on a limb' from the rest of the county. This was perhaps why Penicuik was the only part of the constituency to return Liberal Democrat councillors under the old First Past the Post council election system, or why from 1997-2005 it was part of the Liberal Democrat held seat of Tweeddale, Lauderdale & Ettrick, which included northern parts of the Scottish Borders. But despite its more historical inclination towards Liberalism, Penicuik is predominantly a working class town, with affluence in its southern and western suburbs and nearby hamlets facing out towards the Scottish Borders countryside. Furthermore, Penicuik is the SNP's strongest ward in Midlothian, having voted 43% SNP, 24% Labour, 18% Conservative, 7% Green and 7% Lib Dem at last year's local elections, with extremely high SNP votes in the town's grimer ex-council estates in central and eastern areas. This was also the most pro-independence ward in the county in the 2014 independence referendum, voting approximately 51% No to 49% Yes.
Overall then, whilst Midlothian's demographics and political history often follows the Scottish average, it also has a very uniquely defined character of its own. Midlothian as a seat is primarily an urban, ex-mining area with a rapidly growing middle class commuter population moving into newly developed houses.
For the most part, most towns and villages in the seat are dominated by Labour and the SNP politically, with the Conservatives being more of a force in affluent Eskbank and the very few rural areas contained within the seat.
The seat's unique character may have contributed to Labour's Danielle Rowley gaining the seat at the 2017 general election with a respectable 885 vote majority ahead of the SNP despite the SNP winning across Scotland. At the 2014 independence referendum, Midlothian rejected independence by 56% No to 44% Yes, and in the 2016 EU membership referendum it voted 62% Remain to 38% Leave, in both cases very similar to the result across Scotland.
But unlike the rest of Scotland, Midlothian is a core target seat for the Labour Party which, given current polling figures, the party will be extremely keen to regain from the SNP alongside the 5 other seats the party lost to the SNP in 2019. Tactical pro-UK voting may help Labour along its way to winning this seat, as in 2019 22% of voters here supported the Conservatives and 7% voted Liberal Democrat. This makes Labour much less reliant on winning over SNP voters directly as they are in the Greater Glasgow area, and so Labour stand a better chance here than in many other seats across Scotland save perhaps East Lothian, Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath. With national boundary changes, the constituency boundary in Midlothian is to remain unchanged.
If Labour are to make a recovery in Scotland, then Midlothian should count as an essential target seat for the party.
2014 independence referendum result
NO: 33,972 (56.3%)
YES: 26,370 (43.7%)
2016 EU membership referendum result
REMAIN: 28,217 (62.1%)
LEAVE: 17,251 (37.9%)
2017 general election result
LAB: 16,458 (36.4%)
SNP: 15,573 (34.4%)
CON: 11,521 (25.4%)
LIB: 1,721 (3.8%)
2019 general election result
SNP: 20,033 (41.5%)
LAB: 14,328 (29.7%)
CON: 10,467 (21.7%)
LIB: 3,393 (7.0%)
In many respects, Midlothian's demographic profile is a microcosm of Scotland: it has a near equal distribution of areas which are more deprived and less deprived than the Scottish average, a similar age profile to the country as a whole and a similar proportion of residents born elsewhere in the UK.
Most of Midlothian's towns and villages are former mining communities, but as Scotland's fastest growing area the county has experienced substantial new build development over the past two decades, which is set to continue into the foreseeable future. And unlike other former mining areas in Lanarkshire, Ayrshire and Fife, Midlothian contains pockets of affluence in the western periphery of Penicuik, eastern periphery of Bonnyrigg, commuter area of Eskbank in western Dalkeith and in villages like Auchendinny, Roslin and Fala. In fact, apart from Mayfield all towns and villages here contain some suburban component, many of which have been developed within the last two decades.
As you might expect, Midlothian was represented by Labour MPs from the 1950 UK general election until the SNP's Owen Thompson won the seat in 2015, briefly returning to Labour at the 2017 general election before the seat was regained by Mr Thompson of the SNP in 2019. Before 1950, the former Midlothian & Peebles Northern seat primarily returned Conservative/Unionist MPs from its creation at the 1918 general election until its abolishment in 1950. In the Scottish Parliament, the majority of Midlothian was represented by Labour until the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election, in which the SNP's Colin Beattie gained Midlothian North & Musselburgh and list MSP Christine Grahame won Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale for the party, which they hold to this day. So broadly speaking, the seat's political representation has been representative of Scotland as a whole though with notable exceptions such as Labour's win in 2017.
Driving from Edinburgh into Midlothian and past Straiton retail park which includes Edinburgh's Ikea branch, you would be mistaken for thinking you had even left the city at all. This is because in spite of its geographic size, Midlothian is highly urbanised, with more than two-thirds of the seat's electors clustered around the towns of Dalkeith, Bonnyrigg, Loanhead, Mayfield, Newtongrange and Gorebridge, an urban area running from the outskirts of Edinburgh.
The main town of Dalkeith is very much a town of two parts, containing Midlothian's most deprived communities in its eastern half and some of the county's most affluent areas in the Eskbank area to the west of the town. North of the town and bordering Edinburgh's Gilmerton estate is the former mining village of Danderhall and the adjacent hamlets of Newton and Millerhill. Danderhall and its nearby communities sit on the 'Edinburgh side' of the Edinburgh City bypass, unlike the rest of Midlothian, and for all intents and purposes it is an old mining village turned Edinburgh suburb. Danderhall and eastern Dalkeith form part of the Dalkeith ward, which has remained loyal to the Labour Party for many years, returning a 46% Labour vote and 35% SNP vote at last year's council elections. This ward is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence at the 2014 referendum by 59% No to 41% Yes.
The Eskbank area of Dalkeith forms part of the Midlothian East ward, which is easily the most competitive area of Midlothian for the Conservatives. The ward boundary covers the far-east of Midlothian, bordering onto East Lothian and the Scottish Borders, and encompassing the more rural villages of Pathhead and Fala which feel more like Borders villages than part of Midlothian. In between the Eskbank area and Pathhead sits Mayfield, a 1950s overspill ex-coal mining town whose deprived working class demography contrasts leafy Esbank and its adjoining suburb of Newbattle. At last year's council elections, Midlothian East voted 34% SNP, 30% Labour and 22% Conservative, having previously had the Conservatives marginally out in front in 2017. Mayfield is the best part of the ward for the SNP with Labour running a reasonable second-place, while last year Newbattle, Eskbank, Fala and Pathhead saw a three-way contest between the Conservatives, Labour and the SNP. The ward is estimated to have returned the strongest 'No' vote to independence in Midlothian at the 2014 Scottish referendum at 61% No to 39% Yes, ranging from 70% No vote in Eskbank to 54% No vote in Mayfield.
West of Mayfield sits Bonnyrigg, another former mining town which includes affluent suburbs on its northern, eastern and southern perimeter and ex-council housing in central and western areas. Bonnyrigg, much like eastern Dalkeith, has retained a stronger loyalty to the Labour Party compared to elsewhere in Scotland, with Labour taking 40% of the vote at last year's council elections to the SNP's 35%. Like the Dalkeith ward, this area is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence in the 2014 referendum by 59% No to 41% Yes.
And in between Bonnyrigg and Mayfield and heading south towards the Scottish Borders sits the ex-mining towns of Newtongrange and Gorebridge. These communities are, for the most part, quite deprived like Mayfield with a few suburban streets on the outskirts. Like much of Midlothian, at last year's council elections these towns were marginally contested between Labour and the SNP, with Newtongrange being the better town for the SNP and Gorebridge being better for Labour. The Midlothian South ward, whilst large in size, is dominated by the two towns. Just south of Gorebridge is the more suburban village of North Middleton, which includes a number of new build developments. The remaining western segment of the ward covers around a third of the total land area of Midlothian, but only contains one settlement - Temple, sitting on the winding road between Gorebridge in southern Midlothian and Penicuik in the west. This area is rural and remote, but very depopulated to the point where it is difficult to gauge its electoral behaviour, though based on a higher 'British' national identity here compared to elsewhere in the seat at the 2011 census, rurality, and affluence, it is likely better for the Conservatives than elsewhere in Midlothian. Midlothian South ward on the whole was fairly split on the independence question, with a Yes vote in Newtongrange cancelled out by a No vote in Gorebridge, North Middleton and Temple, to give the ward an overall No vote of 53% No to 47% Yes.
Heading back towards Edinburgh, the Midlothian West ward covers the interlinked ex-coal mining settlements of Straiton and Loanhead on the very outskirts of Edinburgh, and villages south of here including Glencourse, Bilston, Rosewell, Auchdinney and Rosilin. Rosilin is the home of Rosslyn Chapel which was supposedly linked to Free Masonry and the Templar Order. This became popularised by the inclusion of the chapel in Darien Brown's Da Vinci Code, making it into something of a tourist attraction. The ward's demographics are quite mixed and broadly average for Midlothian, with Labour polling ahead in Rosewell and the SNP vote being weaker in Auchdinney and Rosilin, and strongest in Loanhead, Straiton, Bilston and Glencourse. At last year's council elections, the ward returned 37% SNP, 27% Labour, 18% Conservative and 10% Green, and at the 2014 independence referendum this area was estimated to have followed the 55% No 45% Yes result experienced in the rest of Scotland, with a stronger Yes vote in settlements closer to the city of Edinburgh such as Straiton, Loanhead and Bilston.
Midlothian's final ward sits in the west of the constituency on the road to West Linton and Peebles in the Scottish Borders, in a sense 'out on a limb' from the rest of the county. This was perhaps why Penicuik was the only part of the constituency to return Liberal Democrat councillors under the old First Past the Post council election system, or why from 1997-2005 it was part of the Liberal Democrat held seat of Tweeddale, Lauderdale & Ettrick, which included northern parts of the Scottish Borders. But despite its more historical inclination towards Liberalism, Penicuik is predominantly a working class town, with affluence in its southern and western suburbs and nearby hamlets facing out towards the Scottish Borders countryside. Furthermore, Penicuik is the SNP's strongest ward in Midlothian, having voted 43% SNP, 24% Labour, 18% Conservative, 7% Green and 7% Lib Dem at last year's local elections, with extremely high SNP votes in the town's grimer ex-council estates in central and eastern areas. This was also the most pro-independence ward in the county in the 2014 independence referendum, voting approximately 51% No to 49% Yes.
Overall then, whilst Midlothian's demographics and political history often follows the Scottish average, it also has a very uniquely defined character of its own. Midlothian as a seat is primarily an urban, ex-mining area with a rapidly growing middle class commuter population moving into newly developed houses.
For the most part, most towns and villages in the seat are dominated by Labour and the SNP politically, with the Conservatives being more of a force in affluent Eskbank and the very few rural areas contained within the seat.
The seat's unique character may have contributed to Labour's Danielle Rowley gaining the seat at the 2017 general election with a respectable 885 vote majority ahead of the SNP despite the SNP winning across Scotland. At the 2014 independence referendum, Midlothian rejected independence by 56% No to 44% Yes, and in the 2016 EU membership referendum it voted 62% Remain to 38% Leave, in both cases very similar to the result across Scotland.
But unlike the rest of Scotland, Midlothian is a core target seat for the Labour Party which, given current polling figures, the party will be extremely keen to regain from the SNP alongside the 5 other seats the party lost to the SNP in 2019. Tactical pro-UK voting may help Labour along its way to winning this seat, as in 2019 22% of voters here supported the Conservatives and 7% voted Liberal Democrat. This makes Labour much less reliant on winning over SNP voters directly as they are in the Greater Glasgow area, and so Labour stand a better chance here than in many other seats across Scotland save perhaps East Lothian, Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath. With national boundary changes, the constituency boundary in Midlothian is to remain unchanged.
If Labour are to make a recovery in Scotland, then Midlothian should count as an essential target seat for the party.
2014 independence referendum result
NO: 33,972 (56.3%)
YES: 26,370 (43.7%)
2016 EU membership referendum result
REMAIN: 28,217 (62.1%)
LEAVE: 17,251 (37.9%)
2017 general election result
LAB: 16,458 (36.4%)
SNP: 15,573 (34.4%)
CON: 11,521 (25.4%)
LIB: 1,721 (3.8%)
2019 general election result
SNP: 20,033 (41.5%)
LAB: 14,328 (29.7%)
CON: 10,467 (21.7%)
LIB: 3,393 (7.0%)
