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Post by greenhert on Aug 26, 2023 10:58:58 GMT
Bicester & Woodstock is a new seat that will be created for this election, and will consist of the growing town of Bicester, the large village of Kidlington to the north of the city of Oxford, the market town of Woodstock, and satellite villages in between. These come from the constituencies of Banbury, Oxford West & Abingdon, Witney and Henley respectively. Unlike some of the new seats profiled in this almanac, it does not even closely resemble any historic constituency let alone any constituency contributing territory to it.
The town of Bicester has been a market town since mediaeval times but has been growing rapidly in the last 2 decades; significant residential and retail developments in Bicester have not been without controversy. Its population is only 37,020 but already it has two railway stations, of which Bicester North has the better connections being a mainline station on the Birmingham Snow Hill-London Marylebone line, currently run by Chiltern Railways. Kidlington is one of the largest villages in the UK, with a population of 13,600 making it larger than many market towns, but residents have strenuously resisted efforts to officially acquire town status for Kidlington even though it qualifies by any other standard, and it also contains the HQ of Oxfordshire's fire and police services. Woodstock, not to be confused with a famous festival in New York, is home to Blenheim Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage site and the birthplace of Winston Churchill, and with a population of 3,100 is one of the smallest towns in the UK.
Bicester & Woodstock covers largely affluent areas in Oxfordshire with high owner-occupation levels and medium-to-high proportions of degree holders and consequently is expected to be a safe Conservative seat, and has only an outside chance of being lost at the next general election even on current polling, with a notional Conservative majority of 13,581.
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Post by sonofkrautrock on Aug 26, 2023 19:17:02 GMT
Kidlington has long declared itself to be the largest village in the UK. It has a current local issue with Oxford United FC (due to be evicted by its rogue landlord in 2026) in negotiations with the County Council over some land near Oxford Parkway station.
Woodstock isn’t the smallest town in West Oxfordshire. That honour falls to Burford, with Charlbury in second place.
The constituency has Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green councillors as well as ex-Labour Independents in Bicester West, but nothing for Labour.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 27, 2023 9:03:24 GMT
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 16, 2023 7:32:28 GMT
Even in the event of a heavy Conservative defeat in the next election I would expect this is the Oxfordshire seat that they probably have the best chance of retaining– simply thanks to the fact that the best tactical voting choice is very unclear, with the areas coming from Banbury favouring Labour over the Lib Dems in parliamentary elections whilst the rest of the seat is the opposite. The Lib Dems have the upper hand in local election results whilst nationwide strong polling for Labour would help them out.
I would struggle to predict which party is most likely to come second here, but I would say that on a poor night for the Conservatives, this is the sort of seat that they may well retain with only 40% of the vote or so, faced by a split opposition vote.
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Post by batman on Sept 16, 2023 7:43:26 GMT
It was the Bicester Times, it was the Woodstock Times.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2023 10:23:25 GMT
Even in the event of a heavy Conservative defeat in the next election I would expect this is the Oxfordshire seat that they probably have the best chance of retaining– simply thanks to the fact that the best tactical voting choice is very unclear, with the areas coming from Banbury favouring Labour over the Lib Dems in parliamentary elections whilst the rest of the seat is the opposite. The Lib Dems have the upper hand in local election results whilst nationwide strong polling for Labour would help them out. I would struggle to predict which party is most likely to come second here, but I would say that on a poor night for the Conservatives, this is the sort of seat that they may well retain with only 40% of the vote or so, faced by a split opposition vote. What odds on polling in one of these seats in the run up to the GE? |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 16, 2023 13:05:08 GMT
It was the Bicester Times, it was the Woodstock Times. You really think revolution is in the air in Oxfordshire, then? |
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Post by batman on Sept 16, 2023 17:06:15 GMT
You know that it's right.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 16, 2023 23:55:22 GMT
Left?
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 17, 2023 14:32:40 GMT
Bicester & Woodstock is a new seat that will be created for this election, and will consist of the growing town of Bicester, the large village of Kidlington to the north of the city of Oxford, the market town of Woodstock, and satellite villages in between. These come from the constituencies of Banbury, Oxford West & Abingdon, Witney and Henley respectively. Unlike some of the new seats profiled in this almanac, it does not even closely resemble any historic constituency let alone any constituency contributing territory to it. The town of Bicester has been a market town since mediaeval times but has been growing rapidly in the last 2 decades; significant residential and retail developments in Bicester have not been without controversy. Its population is only 37,020 but already it has two railway stations, of which Bicester North has the better connections being a mainline station on the Birmingham Snow Hill-London Marylebone line, currently run by Chiltern Railways. Kidlington is one of the largest villages in the UK, with a population of 13,600 making it larger than many market towns, but residents have strenuously resisted efforts to officially acquire town status for Kidlington even though it qualifies by any other standard, and it also contains the HQ of Oxfordshire's fire and police services. Woodstock, not to be confused with a famous festival in New York, is home to Blenheim Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage site and the birthplace of Winston Churchill, and with a population of 3,100 is one of the smallest towns in the UK. Bicester & Woodstock covers largely affluent areas in Oxfordshire with high owner-occupation levels and medium-to-high proportions of degree holders and consequently is expected to be a safe Conservative seat, and has only an outside chance of being lost at the next general election even on current polling, with a notional Conservative majority of 13,581.
is there an official definition of what makes a village a village, and what makes a town a town?
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Post by greenhert on Sept 17, 2023 20:23:03 GMT
Bicester & Woodstock is a new seat that will be created for this election, and will consist of the growing town of Bicester, the large village of Kidlington to the north of the city of Oxford, the market town of Woodstock, and satellite villages in between. These come from the constituencies of Banbury, Oxford West & Abingdon, Witney and Henley respectively. Unlike some of the new seats profiled in this almanac, it does not even closely resemble any historic constituency let alone any constituency contributing territory to it. The town of Bicester has been a market town since mediaeval times but has been growing rapidly in the last 2 decades; significant residential and retail developments in Bicester have not been without controversy. Its population is only 37,020 but already it has two railway stations, of which Bicester North has the better connections being a mainline station on the Birmingham Snow Hill-London Marylebone line, currently run by Chiltern Railways. Kidlington is one of the largest villages in the UK, with a population of 13,600 making it larger than many market towns, but residents have strenuously resisted efforts to officially acquire town status for Kidlington even though it qualifies by any other standard, and it also contains the HQ of Oxfordshire's fire and police services. Woodstock, not to be confused with a famous festival in New York, is home to Blenheim Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage site and the birthplace of Winston Churchill, and with a population of 3,100 is one of the smallest towns in the UK. Bicester & Woodstock covers largely affluent areas in Oxfordshire with high owner-occupation levels and medium-to-high proportions of degree holders and consequently is expected to be a safe Conservative seat, and has only an outside chance of being lost at the next general election even on current polling, with a notional Conservative majority of 13,581.
is there an official definition of what makes a village a village, and what makes a town a town?
There is. A town has a charter and a traditional market. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2023 4:36:03 GMT
Given the Oxford effect, I think this area is trending away from the Tories long-term. The London links help them. I think we’ll get a similar result to Banbury in 1997 here.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 19, 2023 10:24:08 GMT
Local election results in 2023 and 2018 for the 13 local election wards of the new constituency and GE19 shares for Banbury, Witney and Oxford West & Abingdon. | 2023¹ | 2018² | Banbury | Witney | OW&A
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C | 8956 33.6% | 11218 44% | 54.3% | 55.2% | 38.1%
LAB | 3746 14% | 5380.5 21.1% | 27.6% | 14.3% | 7.2%
LD | 9614 36% | 4531.5 17.8% | 14.0% | 30.5% | 53.3%
GRN | 3356 12.6% | 2173 8.5% | 4.1% | |
Ind | 1000 3.7% | 2197 8.6% | | | 1.4% (Brexit)
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Σ | 26672 | 25500 | 62921 | 61305 | 58824 A LD or GRN stood in all 13 wards in both cases, both stood in 7 wards in 2023 and in 6 in 2018. | 7 wards | 6 wards
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LD | 4630 17.4 | 2007.5 7.9
GRN | 1008 3.8 | 646 2.5 LAB stood in 12 in 2023 and in 13 in 2018. Where they didn't stand in 2023 LAB had 591.5 votes in 2018 or 2.3% of the total. All four parties and an Ind stood there in 2018. Their only result after that was in 2021 with 182 votes, 10.5% of that poll and about ballpark of what they got in the other ones bar 2018 with an average share of 33.2%. Inds stood in 3 in 2023 and in 4 in 2018. [1] Two wards from 2022, one from 2021. [2] Two wards from 2016, one from 21/06/18. Ps: All 13 wards are up for next year's local elections. |
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 7, 2023 15:22:40 GMT
Thanks to bjornhattan and @europeanlefty who did the original profiles for Banbury and Witney All the present Oxfordshire seats are oversized, and as a result the county is entitled to a new seat at the latest boundary review, and this is it. It contains parts of four existing seats, but only of two District councils, being largely based on the eastern half of Cherwell District. There are essentially three parts to it. The largest is the rapidly growing town of Bicester, which together with its satellites of Caversfield and Ambrosden accounts for just over a third of the seat. The population was less than 10,000 in the 1950s, and has grown by 25% in the last 10 years to its present size of 40,000, with more expansion planned. There is a whole new quarter (Langford village) on the south side of the town where nearly half the households own with a mortgage, and a quarter rent privately, and only 7% are over 65. This is a struggling young family demographic which is not currently well inclined to the Conservatives. Just to the north on the other side of Gagle Brook is the extraordinary Bicester Village shopping mall, which a whole new station on the Oxford-Bedford line (via Milton Keynes) has been built to serve, not to speak of thousands of parking spaces. The huge shopping mall is aimed at designer goods, and is famous for its hordes of Chinese tourists. There is more new development at the satellite of Ambrosden alongside the large Army base, with its military housing, and another brand new development at Elmbrook in the north-west, with similar demographics to Langford. More housing of a slightly older vintage, but still recent, sits on the east and north of the town, including the satellite of Caversfield, where there is more military housing associated with the old RAF Bicester base. To the west of the centre, the immediate post-war housing is more rundown. The old centre of Bicester, with its usual pedestrianized shopping centre and market square is really quite small. Bicester isn’t that high status, with as many routine as managerial workers in the older estates but little council housing. There is a small ethnic minority population. Politically Bicester has always been inclined to the Conservatives, although like so many other places in the country no Conservative councillors were elected in 2023, with Liberal Democrat, Green, and Independent elected instead. There is no significant Labour vote locally, although results for Banbury constituency, and demographics suggest that there is certainly scope for a higher Labour vote. The second part, with some 13,000 voters is Kidlington. This is an overgrown commuter village next to Oxford airport, and barely separated from the city, and indeed was previously part of the Oxford West & Abingdon seat, although it is in Cherwell District. It is a fairly unprepossessing exurb, with only a small commercial centre, and the Oxford canal winding along the western side. Most of the development is post-war, but nothing like as recent as in Bicester. Like most commuter villages it is solidly middle-class, and a little up market of Bicester, but locally it is normally competitive between Liberal Democrat and Conservative, although the Greens have now started to elect councillors in the town. Unlike elsewhere we can assume that the Liberal Democrat vote carries over into parliamentary contests as it is currently in a Liberal Democrat held seat. The remainder of the seat consists of far flung rural villages. Between Bicester and Kidlington, and just to the north of Oxford lies Otmoor. This was historically marshland, and now contains a nature reserve, and a site of special scientific interest (as well as another military site). Present day residents of Oxford no doubt curse the lobbyists who forced the M40 to take a huge curve to the east to avoid Otmoor, making access to the motorway from the city difficult along highly congested roads. To the west of Bicester is the old RAF base at Upper Heyford on the river Cherwell and the Oxford canal, where there is new development. North of Bicester is a sparsely populated area towards Brackley and Buckingham. This rural section of Cherwell District has 13,000 voters, a third of whom come from Henley constituency rather than Banbury, and is thoroughly Conservative. There is similar teritory to the west of the Cherwell, with five wards containing 17,000 voters coming in from the eastern end of West Oxfordshire District and the Witney constituency. All this area is over 40% managerial and with degrees, and comes close to the outskirts of Witney itself. The only settlement that can be called a town in this section is Woodstock, with a population of only 3000, but with a commercial high street, and some handsome old buildings. Rather bigger than Woodstock - indeed absolutely enormous - are the house and grounds of Blenheim Palace, home to the Dukes of Marlborough, and rivalling the King’s mansion of Sandringham for grandeur. No doubt the duke and his retainers vote Conservative as normally do the villages, although the Liberal Democrats usually win in Woodstock, and the village of Eynsham to the south, which actually has a larger population than Woodstock, which must be one of the smallest places in the country to find its way into a constituency name. This was one of the harder constituencies to provide notional figures for. Labour were a clear second in the old Banbury but have no local government presence whatsoever anywhere in this constituency. At local level there is Liberal Democrat strength, recently in Bicester, but of more longstanding in the Witney part of the seat where they were comfortably second at parliamentary level, and in Kidlington, which is part of the Liberal Democrat Oxford West seat. The Liberal Democrats did particularly well in Oxfordshire at the 2024 election, and this was perhaps the most surprising seat to fall to them, on a stonking swing of over 18% and without squeezing the Labour vote, if the notionals are to be believed. The first MP for the seat is Calum Miller, former academic and senior civil servant. Census data: Owner-occupied 70% (175/575 in England & Wales), private rented 19% (262nd), social rented 11% (462nd) : White 89%(305th), Black 2%(268th), South Asian 2%(297th), Mixed 3%(213rd), Other 4%(211th) : Managerial & professional 45% (138th), Routine & Semi-routine 24% (405th) : Degree level 39%(132nd), Minimal qualifications 24%(424th) : Students 5% (486th), Over 65- 18% (317th) Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 50% from Banbury, 24% from Witney, 20% from Oxford W/Abingdon, and 6% from Henley It takes 39% of Banbury, 20% of Witney, 18% of Oxford W/Abingdon, 6% of Henley
| Notional | % | 2024 | % | | Liberal Democrat | 13,825 | 26.6 | 19,419 | 38.7 | | Conservative | 28,030 | 53.9 | 14,461 | 28.8 | | Labour | 8,762 | 16.9 | 8,236 | 16.4 | | Brexit/Reform | 149 | 0.3 | 5,408 | 10.8 | | Green | 1,225 | 2.4 | 2,404 | 4.8 | | Other |
| | 291 | 0.6 | | Majority | -14,205 | -27.3 | 4,958 | 9.9 |
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