Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
Aug 25, 2023 23:31:33 GMT
Pete Whitehead, andrewp, and 3 more like this
Post by Robert Waller on Aug 25, 2023 23:31:33 GMT
Sedgefield is a name that comes and goes in British electoral politics. It existed from 1918 to 1974 but not between 1974 and 1983. When it did reappear then it swiftly became one of the better known constituencies. Indeed, their seizure of Sedgefield was one of the more widely reported Conservative gains from Labour in the December 2019 general election. The reason is clear. From 1983 to 2007 this had been the seat of the most electorally successful leader of the Labour party ever, Tony Blair. Many political anoraks will still remember the coverage of this 1997 triumph from outside his constituency home, Myrobella in the village of Trimdon Colliery, before the flight south to the bright sunny dawn (and perhaps pinnacle) of New Labour optimism on the 2nd of May. Now, the name of Sedgefield is again going to disappear, as its fairly closely related successor, this seat, will be named Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor.
However, Sedgefield’s place in political and psephological history and memory is secure. This is not just because of its association with someone, whatever one’s attitude to him, who was one of the major Prime Ministerial figures of modern times; but also because it is rare and notable for the constituency of a former Prime Minister to be lost by their party, as it was in December 2019. However, it is not unprecedented. In effect Margaret Thatcher’s Finchley fell to Labour in that first Blair landslide. The safe seat found for Alec Douglas Home in 1963 is now held by the SNP. Ramsay MacDonald was defeated himself not far from here at Seaham in 1935 shortly after he had handed over the premiership, as was H.H. Asquith in East Fife in 1918 two years after being ousted from 10 Downing Street by his fellow Liberal Lloyd George. Perhaps the closest to an incumbent Prime Minister losing their seat was Arthur Balfour, who had just been replaced by Campbell-Bannerman before his defeat at East Manchester in the 1906 Liberal landslide.
In the case of Sedgefield in 2019, it was far from the most unexpected Labour loss, even in the North East region. For a start the constituency included some pockets that have always been decidedly open to the Tories. The seat covered much of the south eastern quadrant of County Durham. The eponymous Sedgefield is itself a small market town of just over 5,000 inhabitants, with a racecourse, a Shrove Tuesday football match, a medieval fair, and a pub, the Dun Cow, smart enough to host the visiting President George W. Bush in 2003. In the most recent Durham unitary county council elections in May 2021 a Conservative topped the poll in Sedgefield ward.
What is more, the constituency included a substantial rural part of Darlington council, curling round the west side of that large and socially mixed town to include affluent and attractive villages like Hurworth, Heighington, Sadberge and Middleton St George. The three wards covering this sector all returned complete Tory slates in the May 2019 council elections, with their top candidates attaining a share of 70% in Heighington & Coniscliffe and 72% in Sadberge & Middleton St George.
The largest community in the existing Sedgefield seat is the former New Town (established 1946) of Newton Aycliffe, with a population in the 2021 census of just under 26,000. Although the three New Towns in the North East (the others are Peterlee and Washington) have not swung so substantially to the Conservatives in the long term as those in the other regions of England, in 2021 a Tory did finish top of the list in Aycliffe North & Middridge, while a Liberal Democrat finished first in Aycliffe East. In those 2021 Durham elections the only real Labour safety within the Sedgefield division lay on the former coalfield, in Chilton and Trimdon & Thornley; and even in wards with a mining background, Independents outpolled Labour in Chilton and Ferryhill wards.
In 2016 voters within the boundaries of Sedgefield voted by approximately 59% to leave the EU. The demographics of the seat suited the Johnson surge of 2019. At the time (2021) of the most recently available census 97.9% of the voters were white. It was about three quarters of the way down the list of those with degrees, and 113th out of the 575 in England and Wales, for the proportion in routine occupations. All in all, it was not overly surprising that Phil Wilson, who had taken over Sedgefield in the byelection occasioned in 2007 by Tony Blair’s departure as PM and from the Commons, was ousted by a fully 4,513 Conservative majority, on a swing of nearly 13%. This might even have betokened a sustainable shift here. But perhaps not; indeed probably not. Not only are economic and political developments looking grim for Tory prospects at present, but help for Labour is approaching from another direction.
Sedgefield has already had an interesting and complex history of boundary changes. For nine years between 1974 and 1983 it did not exist at all, until reconstituted from parts of several other Durham constituencies. Now major changes have again been proposed, and they are very much to Labour’s advantage. For a start, all the Tory-inclined wards within the borough of Darlington (and hence also the Tees Valley combined authority) are to be transferred out of the Sedgefield seat: Heighington to Darlington itself and Hurworth and Sadberge/Middleton St George to the newly named Stockton West. These wards account for 18% of the present Sedgefield electorate, about 11,500 voters. The small Wingate ward, with about 3,000 electors, would also be transferred out, in its case to Easington. In exchange Coxhoe ward (9,779 voters) is to be brought in from City of Durham constituency, and Spennymoor from Bishop Auckland. By an inspired piece of ward splitting, the Trimdon & Thornley ward is now divided, with the latter part allocated to Easington.
Finally, although it does actually largely survive the redistribution unlike in 1974, the name of this seat is to be changed to Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor, to give recognition to the two largest population centres in the seat; therefore again Sedgefield will disappear from the list of constituency names, albeit now with a more famous ex-MP.
Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor will be significantly more pro-Labour than the present Sedgefield. Indeed it might not even be predicted to be a gain at the next general election, as the notional figures for a hypothetical December 2019 general election on the new boundaries would probably have Labour ahead by over a thousand votes, although this estimate is impossible to prove. Certainly the Conservative MP Paul Howell will have to fight it as if he is attempting to regain it. Unless the economy improves dramatically or the successor Prime Minister proves to be able to generate much more appeal than latter-day Boris Johnson, he looks unlikely to succeed.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.4% 191/575
Owner occupied 61.6% 374/575
Private rented 16.0% 390/575
Social rented 22.4% 102/575
White 97.8% 17/575
Black 0.3% 514/575
Asian 0.9% 542/575
Managerial & professional 26.6% 461/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.1% 59/575
Degree level 25.9% 469/575
No qualifications 21.4% 139/575
Students 5.2% 360/575
General Election 2019: Sedgefield
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Paul Howell 19,609 47.2 +8.4
Labour Phil Wilson 15,096 36.3 −17.1
Brexit Party David Bull 3,518 8.5 New
Liberal Democrats Dawn Welsh 1,955 4.7 +2.8
Green John Furness 994 2.4 +0.8
Independent Michael Joyce 394 0.9 New
C Majority 4,513 10.9
Turnout 41,566 64.6 −0.5
Registered electors 64,325
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 12.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new seat of Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor will be composed of
69.0% of Sedgefield
24.7% of Bishop Auckland
13.7% of City of Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_201_Newton%20Aycliffe%20and%20Spennymoor_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
However, Sedgefield’s place in political and psephological history and memory is secure. This is not just because of its association with someone, whatever one’s attitude to him, who was one of the major Prime Ministerial figures of modern times; but also because it is rare and notable for the constituency of a former Prime Minister to be lost by their party, as it was in December 2019. However, it is not unprecedented. In effect Margaret Thatcher’s Finchley fell to Labour in that first Blair landslide. The safe seat found for Alec Douglas Home in 1963 is now held by the SNP. Ramsay MacDonald was defeated himself not far from here at Seaham in 1935 shortly after he had handed over the premiership, as was H.H. Asquith in East Fife in 1918 two years after being ousted from 10 Downing Street by his fellow Liberal Lloyd George. Perhaps the closest to an incumbent Prime Minister losing their seat was Arthur Balfour, who had just been replaced by Campbell-Bannerman before his defeat at East Manchester in the 1906 Liberal landslide.
In the case of Sedgefield in 2019, it was far from the most unexpected Labour loss, even in the North East region. For a start the constituency included some pockets that have always been decidedly open to the Tories. The seat covered much of the south eastern quadrant of County Durham. The eponymous Sedgefield is itself a small market town of just over 5,000 inhabitants, with a racecourse, a Shrove Tuesday football match, a medieval fair, and a pub, the Dun Cow, smart enough to host the visiting President George W. Bush in 2003. In the most recent Durham unitary county council elections in May 2021 a Conservative topped the poll in Sedgefield ward.
What is more, the constituency included a substantial rural part of Darlington council, curling round the west side of that large and socially mixed town to include affluent and attractive villages like Hurworth, Heighington, Sadberge and Middleton St George. The three wards covering this sector all returned complete Tory slates in the May 2019 council elections, with their top candidates attaining a share of 70% in Heighington & Coniscliffe and 72% in Sadberge & Middleton St George.
The largest community in the existing Sedgefield seat is the former New Town (established 1946) of Newton Aycliffe, with a population in the 2021 census of just under 26,000. Although the three New Towns in the North East (the others are Peterlee and Washington) have not swung so substantially to the Conservatives in the long term as those in the other regions of England, in 2021 a Tory did finish top of the list in Aycliffe North & Middridge, while a Liberal Democrat finished first in Aycliffe East. In those 2021 Durham elections the only real Labour safety within the Sedgefield division lay on the former coalfield, in Chilton and Trimdon & Thornley; and even in wards with a mining background, Independents outpolled Labour in Chilton and Ferryhill wards.
In 2016 voters within the boundaries of Sedgefield voted by approximately 59% to leave the EU. The demographics of the seat suited the Johnson surge of 2019. At the time (2021) of the most recently available census 97.9% of the voters were white. It was about three quarters of the way down the list of those with degrees, and 113th out of the 575 in England and Wales, for the proportion in routine occupations. All in all, it was not overly surprising that Phil Wilson, who had taken over Sedgefield in the byelection occasioned in 2007 by Tony Blair’s departure as PM and from the Commons, was ousted by a fully 4,513 Conservative majority, on a swing of nearly 13%. This might even have betokened a sustainable shift here. But perhaps not; indeed probably not. Not only are economic and political developments looking grim for Tory prospects at present, but help for Labour is approaching from another direction.
Sedgefield has already had an interesting and complex history of boundary changes. For nine years between 1974 and 1983 it did not exist at all, until reconstituted from parts of several other Durham constituencies. Now major changes have again been proposed, and they are very much to Labour’s advantage. For a start, all the Tory-inclined wards within the borough of Darlington (and hence also the Tees Valley combined authority) are to be transferred out of the Sedgefield seat: Heighington to Darlington itself and Hurworth and Sadberge/Middleton St George to the newly named Stockton West. These wards account for 18% of the present Sedgefield electorate, about 11,500 voters. The small Wingate ward, with about 3,000 electors, would also be transferred out, in its case to Easington. In exchange Coxhoe ward (9,779 voters) is to be brought in from City of Durham constituency, and Spennymoor from Bishop Auckland. By an inspired piece of ward splitting, the Trimdon & Thornley ward is now divided, with the latter part allocated to Easington.
Finally, although it does actually largely survive the redistribution unlike in 1974, the name of this seat is to be changed to Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor, to give recognition to the two largest population centres in the seat; therefore again Sedgefield will disappear from the list of constituency names, albeit now with a more famous ex-MP.
Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor will be significantly more pro-Labour than the present Sedgefield. Indeed it might not even be predicted to be a gain at the next general election, as the notional figures for a hypothetical December 2019 general election on the new boundaries would probably have Labour ahead by over a thousand votes, although this estimate is impossible to prove. Certainly the Conservative MP Paul Howell will have to fight it as if he is attempting to regain it. Unless the economy improves dramatically or the successor Prime Minister proves to be able to generate much more appeal than latter-day Boris Johnson, he looks unlikely to succeed.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.4% 191/575
Owner occupied 61.6% 374/575
Private rented 16.0% 390/575
Social rented 22.4% 102/575
White 97.8% 17/575
Black 0.3% 514/575
Asian 0.9% 542/575
Managerial & professional 26.6% 461/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.1% 59/575
Degree level 25.9% 469/575
No qualifications 21.4% 139/575
Students 5.2% 360/575
General Election 2019: Sedgefield
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Paul Howell 19,609 47.2 +8.4
Labour Phil Wilson 15,096 36.3 −17.1
Brexit Party David Bull 3,518 8.5 New
Liberal Democrats Dawn Welsh 1,955 4.7 +2.8
Green John Furness 994 2.4 +0.8
Independent Michael Joyce 394 0.9 New
C Majority 4,513 10.9
Turnout 41,566 64.6 −0.5
Registered electors 64,325
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 12.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new seat of Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor will be composed of
69.0% of Sedgefield
24.7% of Bishop Auckland
13.7% of City of Durham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_201_Newton%20Aycliffe%20and%20Spennymoor_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 20014 | 46.1% |
| Lab | 16606 | 38.3% |
| Brexit | 3374 | 7.8% |
| LD | 2340 | 5.4% |
| Green | 644 | 1.5% |
| Oth | 394 | 0.9% |
| Majority | 3408 | 7.9% |
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