Post by Robert Waller on Aug 25, 2023 19:52:02 GMT
Unlike its classy little near-namesake on the western Isle of Wight, there is nothing up-market about Great Yarmouth. In fact this constituency is one of the top five per cent as far as working class occupational indicators are concerned, with over a third still employed in routine and semi-routine jobs. According to the figures from the 2021 census, it ranks 20th out of the 575 seats in England and Wales after the boundary changes in the latter category. However the correlation between class and voting as been declining since around 1960 (see for example the analysis in Mark Franklin, The Decline in Class Voting in Britain) and reached a new low in 2019; the Conservatives held Great Yarmouth with a majority of 17,663, their highest ever, following a swing of over 11% against Labour - and that on a turnout of scarcely above 60%
Clearly the outcome in 2019 was largely the product of issues relating to the EU to be discussed below, but the (Great) Yarmouth seat has only on rare occasions proved fruitful ground for Labour. Peter Pulzer’s famous 1967 dictum that “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail” has in fact never been entirely true. The parliamentary seat’s boundaries have been fairly consistent for many decades due to its geographical position at the eastern coastal extremity of Norfolk. Labour have only prevailed in (Great) Yarmouth in very good years for them nationally: 1997-2005, 1966 and 1945-50. However there have been a remarkable number of close contests. Labour had a majority of less than 3,000 three times (1945, 1950 and 1966), and the Conservatives and allies in 1918, 1924, 1951, 1955, 1964 and October 1974 – that is six times in all. The Liberals won in 1922, 1923 and 1929, but never by more than 2,924. Therefore in all there have been 12 general elections in which the leading two parties were separated by less than 3,000. The Liberal Democrats, by the way, in December 2019 the Liberal Democrats polled just 3.8% in Great Yarmouth, one of their worst performances in England.
This emphatic rejection is closely connected to the Lib Dem campaign led by Jo Swinson in which prominence was given to their dislike of the result of the 2016 European referendum. This would not have gone down well here. As Great Yarmouth as a Westminster constituency is identical to the borough council of the same name, we have no need of estimates to establish how it had voted: 71.5% Leave, 28.5% Remain. In addition to its working class credentials, Great Yarmouth is on the east coast of England, which has a number of favourable credits as far as Europhobia is concerned. These include a 75.6% anti vote in the Boston authority and the UKIP victories in parliamentary byelections in Clacton and Rochester & Strood. The fallout from the referendum and the delay in enacting its decision clearly plays a large role in the record breaking size of the Tory majority in Yarmouth in December 2019 - and of the outcome in July 2024.
Great Yarmouth is the largest holiday resort and the largest working port in Norfolk. It used to have a herring fishing fleet and be a ferry centre for travel to northern Europe, especially Holland, and more recently a base for North Sea oil and gas exploitation. None of this, however, has been particularly prosperous in the 21st century. The town of Yarmouth itself (population around 40,000) has also been known for a solid Labour vote. In the most recent borough council elections in May 2023 Labour returned 18 councillors in seven wards. These were Claydon, Magdalen, Nelson (south of the town centre on the coast), Southtown & Cobholme, St Andrews and Central & Northgate, where representation as late as 2019 was shared with a latter-day UKIP councillor, which says something in itself. They also gained one of the two in Yarmouth North. St Andrew and Magdalen are both in Gorleston-on-Sea, which is really Yarmouth on the other side of the mouth of the River Yare: St Andrews is the northern central section of Gorleston, and Magdalen is in effect the Gorleston council estate ward in its south-western quadrant – its Census OA still had 60% housing in the social rented sector in 2021. Claydon in west Gorleston also had over 40% social rented, and other wards such as Yarmouth Central & Northgate, Nelson and Southtown/Cobholme have a minority of owner occupiers because of high private rented numbers as well. This central block of wards is clearly overall working class with elements of deprivation. Note too some of the educational statistics: 32% with no qualifications in the relevant census output areas in Claydon, 38% in Nelson, 32% in Central & Northgate, 30% in Southtown & Cobholme. Overall, in 2021 Great Yarmouth was the seat with the 3rd lowest percentage of those with degrees, out of the 575 in England and Wales (on the set of new boundaries). The demographics suggest that although this zone may provide reliable Labour support in council elections, it would not have done so in recent general elections, particularly the most recent, because they also correlation with a very strong Brexit preference.
Overall, if one adds up all the votes within the Great Yarmouth constituency which were cast in the May 2023 local elections the Conservatives were still ahead - albeit by only 179 votes from Labour. In its way, this represents yet another close run thing here in east Norfolk. On the other hand, these were municipal contests – decided by a turnout of 27.9%, at a time when the Tories were languishing in the 20s (percentage) in the national polls and Labour were in the mid 40s.The Conservatives did manage in 2023 to hold one seat in Yarmouth North and retain both in Gorleston ward itself. It is also the case that slightly more than half the electorate is not in the Yarmouth and Gorleston ‘conurbation’, The seat, and the borough, also includes Bradwell just inland (with over 10,000 residents), effectively a more middle class and owner occupied suburb. Inland from Gorleston is Lothingland, a large low lying area that, like Bradwell, was in Suffolk before 1974. Further north up the coast is Caister-on-Sea (not to be confused with Caistor in the Lincolnshire Wolds), which, like Bradwell, has two wards and around 10,000 population. Still further north and west, and more rural, are Ormesby, East Flegg and West Flegg, and Fleggburgh.
These are all in effect part of rural Norfolk, which has become very Conservative in recent decades. Not only do they between them elected 16 Tories and two Independents in May 2023 (Labour gained just one, in the split Bradwell South & Hopton), but in the Norfolk county council contests of 2021 the Conservatives could be said to have given Labour a good ‘flegging’: by 72% to 14% in East Flegg, 68% to 14% in West Flegg. At county level Labour only triumphed in Magdalen and Yarmouth Nelson & Southtown, even though 2021 was not one of their worse years. The hinterland is characterised by an older age structure: over 30% in Caister South (for example), which also tends to EU ‘leave’ type opinions.
Therefore, on top of a history of Labour only winning in their best general election years, the Great Yarmouth seat has a combination of characteristics that suggest it has become an even less likely target. Relative to the national averages it is aged, less educationally qualified, more working class, more white and more (literally) insular: it had the 7th highest proportion of residents without a passport of the 659 seats in the 2011 census. Because of its rather isolated location and stable population it is again suggested that there should be no boundary changes in the 2023 review – its lines have already remained unaltered since 1983. That is another difference from the Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight, which has by contrast seen one of the most radical changes in the present review, as it has been split for the first time into two whole seats.
What the demographics and the recent voting history (if one looks at the EU referendum as well as elections) did harbinger was the suitability of Great Yarmouth for Nigel Farage's latest vehicle, Reform UK. Despite attracting over 4 million votes nationally, Reform won only four seats in 2024 under the first-past-the-post system; but one of them was here in the far east, as Rupert Lowe, the 66 year old former chairman of Southampton football club, obtained a 35% share, from a standing start, as the Tories dropped by a massive 41% - indeed it was Labour who finished second. This Yarmouth now looks rather like a three way marginal, and it is hard to make predictions about what may happen in the next general election, probably in the later 2020s.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 24.0% 105/575
Owner occupied 62.1% 368/575
Private rented 21.7% 167/575
Social rented 16.2% 245/575
White 94.6% 203/575
Black 1.1% 316/575
Asian 2.0% 395/575
Managerial & professional 22.2% 532/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8% 20/575
Degree level 18.3% 573/575
No qualifications 26.5% 28/575
Students 4.8% 434/575
General Election 2024: Great Yarmouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Reform UK Rupert Lowe 14,385 35.3 N/A
Labour Keir Cozens 12,959 31.8 +6.7
Conservative James Clark 10,034 24.6 −41.2
Green Trevor Rawson 1,736 4.3 +1.9
Liberal Democrats Fionna Tod 1,102 2.7 −1.1
Independent Paul Brown 230 0.6 N/A
English Democrat Catherine Blaiklock 171 0.4 N/A
Independent Clare Roullier 131 0.3 N/A
Reform Majority 1,426 3.5 N/A
Turnout 40,748 55.6 −4.8
Registered electors 73,317
Reform UK gain from Conservative
Swing 38.2 C to Reform
General Election 2019: Great Yarmouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Brandon Lewis 28,593 65.8 +11.7
Labour Co-op Mike Smith-Clare 10,930 25.1 −11.0
Liberal Democrats James Joyce 1,661 3.8 +1.6
Green Anne Killett 1,064 2.4 +1.1
Veterans and People's Dave Harding 631 1.5 New
Independent Adrian Myers 429 1.0 New
Independent Margaret McMahon-Morris 154 0.4 New
C Majority 17,663 40.7 +22.7
2019 electorate 71,957
Turnout 43,462 60.4 −1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 11.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_064_Great%20Yarmouth_Portrait.pdf
Clearly the outcome in 2019 was largely the product of issues relating to the EU to be discussed below, but the (Great) Yarmouth seat has only on rare occasions proved fruitful ground for Labour. Peter Pulzer’s famous 1967 dictum that “Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail” has in fact never been entirely true. The parliamentary seat’s boundaries have been fairly consistent for many decades due to its geographical position at the eastern coastal extremity of Norfolk. Labour have only prevailed in (Great) Yarmouth in very good years for them nationally: 1997-2005, 1966 and 1945-50. However there have been a remarkable number of close contests. Labour had a majority of less than 3,000 three times (1945, 1950 and 1966), and the Conservatives and allies in 1918, 1924, 1951, 1955, 1964 and October 1974 – that is six times in all. The Liberals won in 1922, 1923 and 1929, but never by more than 2,924. Therefore in all there have been 12 general elections in which the leading two parties were separated by less than 3,000. The Liberal Democrats, by the way, in December 2019 the Liberal Democrats polled just 3.8% in Great Yarmouth, one of their worst performances in England.
This emphatic rejection is closely connected to the Lib Dem campaign led by Jo Swinson in which prominence was given to their dislike of the result of the 2016 European referendum. This would not have gone down well here. As Great Yarmouth as a Westminster constituency is identical to the borough council of the same name, we have no need of estimates to establish how it had voted: 71.5% Leave, 28.5% Remain. In addition to its working class credentials, Great Yarmouth is on the east coast of England, which has a number of favourable credits as far as Europhobia is concerned. These include a 75.6% anti vote in the Boston authority and the UKIP victories in parliamentary byelections in Clacton and Rochester & Strood. The fallout from the referendum and the delay in enacting its decision clearly plays a large role in the record breaking size of the Tory majority in Yarmouth in December 2019 - and of the outcome in July 2024.
Great Yarmouth is the largest holiday resort and the largest working port in Norfolk. It used to have a herring fishing fleet and be a ferry centre for travel to northern Europe, especially Holland, and more recently a base for North Sea oil and gas exploitation. None of this, however, has been particularly prosperous in the 21st century. The town of Yarmouth itself (population around 40,000) has also been known for a solid Labour vote. In the most recent borough council elections in May 2023 Labour returned 18 councillors in seven wards. These were Claydon, Magdalen, Nelson (south of the town centre on the coast), Southtown & Cobholme, St Andrews and Central & Northgate, where representation as late as 2019 was shared with a latter-day UKIP councillor, which says something in itself. They also gained one of the two in Yarmouth North. St Andrew and Magdalen are both in Gorleston-on-Sea, which is really Yarmouth on the other side of the mouth of the River Yare: St Andrews is the northern central section of Gorleston, and Magdalen is in effect the Gorleston council estate ward in its south-western quadrant – its Census OA still had 60% housing in the social rented sector in 2021. Claydon in west Gorleston also had over 40% social rented, and other wards such as Yarmouth Central & Northgate, Nelson and Southtown/Cobholme have a minority of owner occupiers because of high private rented numbers as well. This central block of wards is clearly overall working class with elements of deprivation. Note too some of the educational statistics: 32% with no qualifications in the relevant census output areas in Claydon, 38% in Nelson, 32% in Central & Northgate, 30% in Southtown & Cobholme. Overall, in 2021 Great Yarmouth was the seat with the 3rd lowest percentage of those with degrees, out of the 575 in England and Wales (on the set of new boundaries). The demographics suggest that although this zone may provide reliable Labour support in council elections, it would not have done so in recent general elections, particularly the most recent, because they also correlation with a very strong Brexit preference.
Overall, if one adds up all the votes within the Great Yarmouth constituency which were cast in the May 2023 local elections the Conservatives were still ahead - albeit by only 179 votes from Labour. In its way, this represents yet another close run thing here in east Norfolk. On the other hand, these were municipal contests – decided by a turnout of 27.9%, at a time when the Tories were languishing in the 20s (percentage) in the national polls and Labour were in the mid 40s.The Conservatives did manage in 2023 to hold one seat in Yarmouth North and retain both in Gorleston ward itself. It is also the case that slightly more than half the electorate is not in the Yarmouth and Gorleston ‘conurbation’, The seat, and the borough, also includes Bradwell just inland (with over 10,000 residents), effectively a more middle class and owner occupied suburb. Inland from Gorleston is Lothingland, a large low lying area that, like Bradwell, was in Suffolk before 1974. Further north up the coast is Caister-on-Sea (not to be confused with Caistor in the Lincolnshire Wolds), which, like Bradwell, has two wards and around 10,000 population. Still further north and west, and more rural, are Ormesby, East Flegg and West Flegg, and Fleggburgh.
These are all in effect part of rural Norfolk, which has become very Conservative in recent decades. Not only do they between them elected 16 Tories and two Independents in May 2023 (Labour gained just one, in the split Bradwell South & Hopton), but in the Norfolk county council contests of 2021 the Conservatives could be said to have given Labour a good ‘flegging’: by 72% to 14% in East Flegg, 68% to 14% in West Flegg. At county level Labour only triumphed in Magdalen and Yarmouth Nelson & Southtown, even though 2021 was not one of their worse years. The hinterland is characterised by an older age structure: over 30% in Caister South (for example), which also tends to EU ‘leave’ type opinions.
Therefore, on top of a history of Labour only winning in their best general election years, the Great Yarmouth seat has a combination of characteristics that suggest it has become an even less likely target. Relative to the national averages it is aged, less educationally qualified, more working class, more white and more (literally) insular: it had the 7th highest proportion of residents without a passport of the 659 seats in the 2011 census. Because of its rather isolated location and stable population it is again suggested that there should be no boundary changes in the 2023 review – its lines have already remained unaltered since 1983. That is another difference from the Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight, which has by contrast seen one of the most radical changes in the present review, as it has been split for the first time into two whole seats.
What the demographics and the recent voting history (if one looks at the EU referendum as well as elections) did harbinger was the suitability of Great Yarmouth for Nigel Farage's latest vehicle, Reform UK. Despite attracting over 4 million votes nationally, Reform won only four seats in 2024 under the first-past-the-post system; but one of them was here in the far east, as Rupert Lowe, the 66 year old former chairman of Southampton football club, obtained a 35% share, from a standing start, as the Tories dropped by a massive 41% - indeed it was Labour who finished second. This Yarmouth now looks rather like a three way marginal, and it is hard to make predictions about what may happen in the next general election, probably in the later 2020s.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 24.0% 105/575
Owner occupied 62.1% 368/575
Private rented 21.7% 167/575
Social rented 16.2% 245/575
White 94.6% 203/575
Black 1.1% 316/575
Asian 2.0% 395/575
Managerial & professional 22.2% 532/575
Routine & Semi-routine 33.8% 20/575
Degree level 18.3% 573/575
No qualifications 26.5% 28/575
Students 4.8% 434/575
General Election 2024: Great Yarmouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Reform UK Rupert Lowe 14,385 35.3 N/A
Labour Keir Cozens 12,959 31.8 +6.7
Conservative James Clark 10,034 24.6 −41.2
Green Trevor Rawson 1,736 4.3 +1.9
Liberal Democrats Fionna Tod 1,102 2.7 −1.1
Independent Paul Brown 230 0.6 N/A
English Democrat Catherine Blaiklock 171 0.4 N/A
Independent Clare Roullier 131 0.3 N/A
Reform Majority 1,426 3.5 N/A
Turnout 40,748 55.6 −4.8
Registered electors 73,317
Reform UK gain from Conservative
Swing 38.2 C to Reform
General Election 2019: Great Yarmouth
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Brandon Lewis 28,593 65.8 +11.7
Labour Co-op Mike Smith-Clare 10,930 25.1 −11.0
Liberal Democrats James Joyce 1,661 3.8 +1.6
Green Anne Killett 1,064 2.4 +1.1
Veterans and People's Dave Harding 631 1.5 New
Independent Adrian Myers 429 1.0 New
Independent Margaret McMahon-Morris 154 0.4 New
C Majority 17,663 40.7 +22.7
2019 electorate 71,957
Turnout 43,462 60.4 −1.4
Conservative hold
Swing 11.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes and Notional Results
N/A
Unchanged seat
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_064_Great%20Yarmouth_Portrait.pdf