Post by Robert Waller on Aug 25, 2023 17:07:44 GMT
Llanelli is the westernmost of the South Wales ‘valleys’ constituencies of coal mining and heavy industrial heritage: the only one historically in Carmarthenshire rather than Glamorgan or Monmouthshire, extracting anthracite coal rather than bituminous, and with copper smelting as well as iron and steel works. Another distinction is that there has always been a higher proportion of Welsh speakers here in the western half of Wales compared with more anglicized valleys such as the Rhondda. In turn this has generated at times a somewhat different political tone from the usual overwhelmingly Labour party dominance, with a Plaid Cymru or nationalist presence that has been especially prominent in elections for the National Assembly (now Senedd), as well as to some extent Carmarthenshire County Council.
Having said that, at Westminster level there has been a stability of representation by senior Labour MPs. In the century since 1922 Llanelli has had just four members. The first was John Henry ‘Snowden’ Williams, who held the seat in their disastrous year of 1931, when only about fifty Labour MPs were returned, by a majority of over 16,000. From 1934 to 1970 the member was Jim Griffiths, who held a chain of ministerial positions including being Harold Wilson’s choice as the first ever Secretary of State for Wales between 1964 and 1966 (by which time he was 75 years of age). Griffiths was succeeded by Denzil Davies, who also served as Llanelli MP for around 35 years, and achieved Shadow Cabinet rank during the Thatcher hegemony. Since 2005 Llanelli has had its first female representative in the Commons, Nia Griffith – and her tenure is likely to be extended as she has been reselected as the Labour candidate. Griffiths and Davies had almost always enjoyed huge majorities, but Nia Griffith has seen her lead slip below 5,000 twice: in 2010, when Plaid Cymru were second, and in 2019, when the Conservatives attained their best percentage since 1931 (which was a straight fight). This was clearly an exceptional product of extraordinary circumstances, the fallout from the EU referendum, when Llanelli voted around 57% to Leave. However there may be more long-standing mileage in the Nationalist challenge.
This is because 46.5% of the residents of the Llanelli seat could speak Welsh the last time these figures were released at constituency level in 2001. Looking at smaller area statistics for the 2021 census, there were Welsh speaking majorities in LSOAs outside Llanelli town (which has a population of only around 25,000) such as Llannon and Pontyberem (home of the darts player Jonny ‘The Ferret’ Clayton, who was in the pairing the won the World Cup for Wales in June 2023). This is connected to the two victories in the devolved assembly on identical boundaries won by Helen Mary Jones in 1999 and 2007; during her second term she was deputy leader of Plaid Cymru. Labour regained that seat by a 382 majority in 2016 and in 2021 increased it to over 5,000, but Llanelli cannot be regarded as a rock solid safe seat at any level. In the May 2022 local elections a number of Nationalist councillors were elected to Carmarthenshire council within the seat, in Glyn, Llannon, Pontyberem and Trimsaran electoral divisions – some with very large percentages.
These Plaid Cymru strongholds are all in the large rural area included in the Llanelli constituency north of the eponymous town, in which Labour wins the largely English speaking divisions such as Felinfoel (home of a well known brewery), Lliedi, the very working class Tyisha in the south-centre of the town, Bigyn and Glanymor. There are other communities largely loyal to Labour as well, though. In its western half, towards the coast, are the small towns of Burry Port and Kidwelly. In the far north east we find Hendy and Fforest, which are only divided from Pontarddulais in the Swansea borough and the Gower seat by the river Llwchwr. Plaid Cymru held Hendy division in May 2022, which in general conforms with the pattern of greater Nationalist strength the further north in the Llanelli seat one goes. All these are communities whose growth was determined by industry – copper and coal in Burry Port, tinplate in the Pontarddulais suburbs, and even Kidwelly with its medieval castle was transformed by brickworks and tinworks during the Industrial Revolution.
Overall the constituency’s demographics are predominantly ‘working class’, with far more in routine and semi-routine occupations than professional and managerial, and the 25th highest proportion of the 650 seats long term sick and disabled at the time of the last fully published census. In fact Llanelli was in the top ten for those reporting their health as very bad. True, there is also a higher percentage than average of owner occupied housing, with a noticeable amount of social housing only in some Llanelli urban MSOAs such as Dafen & Felinfoel (23%) and Llanelli South (25%), but that is not untypical in the South Wales industrial seats.
Indeed there is a strong sub-regional and regional impact on the psephological analysis of this seat, in the sense that the relatively high population of Welsh speakers has stimulated a Plaid Cymru challenge, and that if it were not situated in the South Wales industrial belt the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats might do better: despite their anomalously strong ‘Brexit’ performance in 2019 the Tories have absolutely no presence in local elections, and the Liberal Democrats actually did not contest the constituency in 2019 after an abysmal performance in 2017 (548 votes, 1.4%).
The boundary changes proposed in Llanelli are not sweeping compared with many other Welsh divisions. Its electorate does need to be increased, but this is confined to the transfer of three mainly rural divisions from Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: Gorslas (3,906 electors), Llangyndeyrn (2,905) and St. Ishmael (2,318). A fourth division, Llangunnor, was initially suggested as well, but this was reversed after the inquiry process as it is located close to Carmarthen town and indeed included its railway station. The three divisions to be added essentially extend the Llanelli boundary northwards into the zone better for the Nationalists, and indeed they do between them have a Welsh speaking majority: 64% in Gorslas and 59% in Llangyndeyrn, with a near majority (49%) in St Ishmael. The former two also elected Plaid councillors in 2022; due to boundary changes St Ishmael is now included with Kidwelly, which Labour won in that year, but previous evidence suggests that Plaid were stronger in the rural St Ishmael section.
Therefore there can be little doubt that the notional results for the revised Llanelli would show a smaller Labour advantage over PC, by at least a thousand, though it should be remembered that the Nationalists were third in 2019. The changes will definitely assist the most likely result in a general election in say 2024: Labour hold, Plaid Cymru up to second, Conservatives down to third. It is far from inconceivable that at some point in the medium term future, say after an unpopular Labour period in national government, that the 'Party of Wales' may again be able to entertain hopes of challenging in Llanelli in a Westminster election.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.5% 149/575
Owner occupied 69.3% 196/575
Private rented 14.9% 440/575
Social rented 15.7% 258/575
White 97.3% 51/575
Black 0.2% 558/575
Asian 1.3% 467/575
No religion 52.5% 10/575
Managerial & professional 27.6% 432/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.0% 81/575
Degree level 29.2% 367/575
No qualifications 20.7% 160/575
Students 5.6% 281/575
General Election 2019: Llanelli
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Nia Griffith 16,125 42.2 -11.3
Conservative Tamara Reay 11,455 30.0 +6.3
Plaid Cymru Mari Arthur 7,048 18.4 +0.2
Brexit Party Susan Boucher 3,605 9.4 N/A
Lab Majority 4,670 12.2 -17.6
Turnout 38,233 63.2 -3.8
2019 Registered electors 60,513
Labour hold
Swing 8.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Llanelli constituency will consist of
100% of Llanelli
15.8% of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Having said that, at Westminster level there has been a stability of representation by senior Labour MPs. In the century since 1922 Llanelli has had just four members. The first was John Henry ‘Snowden’ Williams, who held the seat in their disastrous year of 1931, when only about fifty Labour MPs were returned, by a majority of over 16,000. From 1934 to 1970 the member was Jim Griffiths, who held a chain of ministerial positions including being Harold Wilson’s choice as the first ever Secretary of State for Wales between 1964 and 1966 (by which time he was 75 years of age). Griffiths was succeeded by Denzil Davies, who also served as Llanelli MP for around 35 years, and achieved Shadow Cabinet rank during the Thatcher hegemony. Since 2005 Llanelli has had its first female representative in the Commons, Nia Griffith – and her tenure is likely to be extended as she has been reselected as the Labour candidate. Griffiths and Davies had almost always enjoyed huge majorities, but Nia Griffith has seen her lead slip below 5,000 twice: in 2010, when Plaid Cymru were second, and in 2019, when the Conservatives attained their best percentage since 1931 (which was a straight fight). This was clearly an exceptional product of extraordinary circumstances, the fallout from the EU referendum, when Llanelli voted around 57% to Leave. However there may be more long-standing mileage in the Nationalist challenge.
This is because 46.5% of the residents of the Llanelli seat could speak Welsh the last time these figures were released at constituency level in 2001. Looking at smaller area statistics for the 2021 census, there were Welsh speaking majorities in LSOAs outside Llanelli town (which has a population of only around 25,000) such as Llannon and Pontyberem (home of the darts player Jonny ‘The Ferret’ Clayton, who was in the pairing the won the World Cup for Wales in June 2023). This is connected to the two victories in the devolved assembly on identical boundaries won by Helen Mary Jones in 1999 and 2007; during her second term she was deputy leader of Plaid Cymru. Labour regained that seat by a 382 majority in 2016 and in 2021 increased it to over 5,000, but Llanelli cannot be regarded as a rock solid safe seat at any level. In the May 2022 local elections a number of Nationalist councillors were elected to Carmarthenshire council within the seat, in Glyn, Llannon, Pontyberem and Trimsaran electoral divisions – some with very large percentages.
These Plaid Cymru strongholds are all in the large rural area included in the Llanelli constituency north of the eponymous town, in which Labour wins the largely English speaking divisions such as Felinfoel (home of a well known brewery), Lliedi, the very working class Tyisha in the south-centre of the town, Bigyn and Glanymor. There are other communities largely loyal to Labour as well, though. In its western half, towards the coast, are the small towns of Burry Port and Kidwelly. In the far north east we find Hendy and Fforest, which are only divided from Pontarddulais in the Swansea borough and the Gower seat by the river Llwchwr. Plaid Cymru held Hendy division in May 2022, which in general conforms with the pattern of greater Nationalist strength the further north in the Llanelli seat one goes. All these are communities whose growth was determined by industry – copper and coal in Burry Port, tinplate in the Pontarddulais suburbs, and even Kidwelly with its medieval castle was transformed by brickworks and tinworks during the Industrial Revolution.
Overall the constituency’s demographics are predominantly ‘working class’, with far more in routine and semi-routine occupations than professional and managerial, and the 25th highest proportion of the 650 seats long term sick and disabled at the time of the last fully published census. In fact Llanelli was in the top ten for those reporting their health as very bad. True, there is also a higher percentage than average of owner occupied housing, with a noticeable amount of social housing only in some Llanelli urban MSOAs such as Dafen & Felinfoel (23%) and Llanelli South (25%), but that is not untypical in the South Wales industrial seats.
Indeed there is a strong sub-regional and regional impact on the psephological analysis of this seat, in the sense that the relatively high population of Welsh speakers has stimulated a Plaid Cymru challenge, and that if it were not situated in the South Wales industrial belt the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats might do better: despite their anomalously strong ‘Brexit’ performance in 2019 the Tories have absolutely no presence in local elections, and the Liberal Democrats actually did not contest the constituency in 2019 after an abysmal performance in 2017 (548 votes, 1.4%).
The boundary changes proposed in Llanelli are not sweeping compared with many other Welsh divisions. Its electorate does need to be increased, but this is confined to the transfer of three mainly rural divisions from Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: Gorslas (3,906 electors), Llangyndeyrn (2,905) and St. Ishmael (2,318). A fourth division, Llangunnor, was initially suggested as well, but this was reversed after the inquiry process as it is located close to Carmarthen town and indeed included its railway station. The three divisions to be added essentially extend the Llanelli boundary northwards into the zone better for the Nationalists, and indeed they do between them have a Welsh speaking majority: 64% in Gorslas and 59% in Llangyndeyrn, with a near majority (49%) in St Ishmael. The former two also elected Plaid councillors in 2022; due to boundary changes St Ishmael is now included with Kidwelly, which Labour won in that year, but previous evidence suggests that Plaid were stronger in the rural St Ishmael section.
Therefore there can be little doubt that the notional results for the revised Llanelli would show a smaller Labour advantage over PC, by at least a thousand, though it should be remembered that the Nationalists were third in 2019. The changes will definitely assist the most likely result in a general election in say 2024: Labour hold, Plaid Cymru up to second, Conservatives down to third. It is far from inconceivable that at some point in the medium term future, say after an unpopular Labour period in national government, that the 'Party of Wales' may again be able to entertain hopes of challenging in Llanelli in a Westminster election.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 22.5% 149/575
Owner occupied 69.3% 196/575
Private rented 14.9% 440/575
Social rented 15.7% 258/575
White 97.3% 51/575
Black 0.2% 558/575
Asian 1.3% 467/575
No religion 52.5% 10/575
Managerial & professional 27.6% 432/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.0% 81/575
Degree level 29.2% 367/575
No qualifications 20.7% 160/575
Students 5.6% 281/575
General Election 2019: Llanelli
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Nia Griffith 16,125 42.2 -11.3
Conservative Tamara Reay 11,455 30.0 +6.3
Plaid Cymru Mari Arthur 7,048 18.4 +0.2
Brexit Party Susan Boucher 3,605 9.4 N/A
Lab Majority 4,670 12.2 -17.6
Turnout 38,233 63.2 -3.8
2019 Registered electors 60,513
Labour hold
Swing 8.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Llanelli constituency will consist of
100% of Llanelli
15.8% of Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
Map
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 27130 | 39.3% |
| Con | 13463 | 30.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 9280 | 21.1% |
| Brexit | 3893 | 8.9% |
| | ||
| Majority | 3793 | 8.6% |
