Post by Robert Waller on Aug 25, 2023 13:34:25 GMT
The last time that the Conservative party has won any parliamentary seat in the city of Kingston upon Hull was in 1959, when Michael Coulson held the North division. For over fifty years now the Tories have not had a single success in any constituency bearing the Hull name, even though they have formed a government after nine of the general elections in that time. Even in cities as associated with Labour dominance as Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle upon Tyne and Manchester have seen at least one of their named seats held by the Conservatives within the same timeframe. One of the reasons that Hull has not is due to the location of some of its middle class suburbs outside the city boundaries. Due to the recommendations of the Boundary Commission confirmed in its final report for Yorkshire and Humberside in June 2023, the seat partly named Hull West will now count as at least notionally a Conservative win in 2019. The reason for this is precisely because its lines will be expanded to include more of those extraneous middle class and Conservative suburban communities.
It could be argued that the Hull element has already been diluted by the addition of the town of Hessle, which is in the East Riding of Yorkshire for the purposes of local government, since 1997. However Hessle, seat immediately to the west of Hull itself on the north bank of the Humber, has not significantly changed the character of the Hull West constituency. It is a little more owner occupied than the average within this seat, with somewhat higher educational qualifications and fewer in routine and semi-routine occupations, but for several election cycles now the council ward representation has seen a duel between Labour and Liberal Democrats, with the Conservatives out of contention. In any case with only 11,700 electors the single Hessle ward is heavily outnumbered by the less than 49,000 within the city boundaries at present.
The dominant ‘Hull West’ portion has usually been strongly Labour and is certainly very working class with a strong pattern of relative deprivation. It includes most of the city centre, situated in the St Andrew’s & Dockland and Central wards. Immediately to the west of them is the ward now called Newington & Gipsyville. Then before Hessle is reached we find Pickering ward on the coast and Boothferry inland (neither to be confused with other places of those names within the Yorkshire and Humberside region) along with Derringham. This western section of Hull is not redolent of the image of an attractive and affluent ‘West End’ found in so many British cities, essentially because of the prevailing wind direction. This is a very down-market set of neighbourhoods. Overall Hull West & Hessle was in the bottom 10% of seats for professional and managerial workers, and in the top decile for those in routine and semi-routine occupations. The same applies, or very nearly applies, to the lack of people with degrees and the high number with no educational qualifications, and indeed for the owner occupation rate; the social housing ratio is highest in the city centre wards.
In the most recent Hull city council elections results, spread across 2022 and 2023 because all wards are not contested every year, Labour won the city centre wards, the Liberal Democrats the others (Boothferry, Derringham and Pickering). The Liberal Democrats patently have failed to translate this municipal success into their general election performance. But what is most striking about the municipal results is a long standing characteristic of elections in the less well off parts of Hull, the extremely low turnout. In May 2023 for example, turnout was 18.9% in Central, 16.5% in St Andrew’s and Docklands, and 15.0% in Newington & Gipsyville. Low turnouts have been endemic in the Newington based ward for decades. Nor is this just a local election phenomenon. In the 2019 general election the turnout in the constituency as a whole was 52.9%. This was the third lowest anywhere in the UK after Hull East and Chorley, the Speaker’s seat which us not fully contested by the major parties. In fact, taking Chorley out for that reason, the three lowest turnouts anywhere were in the three Hull seats. This certainly suggests a serious level of disillusion in and non-engagement with the democratic process.
The number of votes cast in Hull West & Hessle at the last general election was therefore low, fewer than 32,000 in total. This was because the seat is also undersized, with just over 60,000 electors: around 15,000 less than the quota applied by the most recent Boundary Commission. Therefore a substantial chunk of territory has needed to be added, and it has come in the form of the Tranby and Willerby & Kirk Ella wards from Haltemprice & Howden constituency (the seat won by David Davis in the last eight contests, including a byelection he himself triggered). These cover suburbs (which claim to be villages) in the East Riding district, such as Anlaby within Tranby - a name once associated with the Tranby Croft scandal, in which Edward VII, when Prince of Wales, was accused, not for the first time or the last, of having been involved in some species of naughtiness. That he was present at all at the Croft, a mansion near Anlaby, tells something about the social background of the area. The areas to be added are heavily owner occupied: in the 2021 census Willerby MSOA exceeded 80% on this criterion and Kirk Ella 90%, Anlaby 76%. They are middle class, especially the Willerby, which has over 40% in professional and managerial jobs. That this area is far removed from the inner city characteristics of the other end of the constituency is reinforced by the electrical preferences. In the most recent elections in the East Riding authority, in May 2023, Tranby elected two Liberal Democrats but in Willerby & Kirk Ella the Tories won very handsomely, their top candidate over half the vote share, and overall about twice as many as Labour.
In their report the Commission stated that “A handful of respondents suggested a name change to acknowledge Haltemprice in the constituency name, rather than just Hessle”. What they did in response to this less than overwhelming demand was to rename the seat Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - and poor Hessle has disappeared entirely, though still within the boundaries. Haltemprice is, though the name of a pre-Reformation priory (dissolved in 1536) and a civil parish from 1858 and a Urban District Council from 1935 to 1974, not actually a community. Hessle may feel a little aggrieved.
In addition to the changes which add no fewer than 19,000 voters in the far west end of the seat, the city centre element is reduced as Central ward, which contains Hull’s main station and Hull Royal Infirmary, for example, but also working class residential neighbourhoods such as Sculcoates, is transferred to Hull North. The overall effect would have been to wipe out Emma Hardy’s majority for Labour, which had been reduced to less than 3,000 in December 2019, as the Brexit party took a nearly 18% share, their highest in the three Hull constituencies. Overall there will now be 30,700 voters from the East Riding wards and 43,700 from within the city of Hull, so the two ‘halves’ of the seat will be much more evenly balanced. The extreme demographic figures are all moderated, as the comparative 2021 census tables below show. This clearly will have a political impact.
As it currently looks highly likely that there will be a substantial swing to Labour at the next election, probably in 2024, we shall still not see the first real-life as opposed to notional Conservative victory in Hull since 1959. But we would see a flash across the TV screen stating ‘Labour gain’ in a Hull seat – for the first time in exactly 60 years.
2021 Census, old boundaries, ranks England and Wales
Owner occupied 47.6% 519/573
Private rented 27.3% 86/573
Social rented 25.2% 66/573
White 89.3%
Black 2.3%
Asian 3.8%
Managerial & professional 21.8% 533/573
Routine & Semi-routine 35.1% 12/573
Degree level 23.4% 520/573
No qualifications 24.9% 56/573
2021 Census, new boundaries, ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 19.1% 288/575
Owner occupied 57.5% 432/575
Private rented 23.0% 145/575
Social rented 19.5% 165/575
White 92.2% 256/575
Black 1.6% 262/575
Asian 2.7% 352/575
Managerial & professional 26.2% 474/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 48/575
Degree level 25.6% 475/575
No qualifications 22.1% 111/575
Students 5.5% 298/575
General Election 2019: Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Emma Hardy 13,384 42.0 −11.1
Conservative Scott Bell 10,528 33.0 +3.2
Brexit Party Michelle Dewberry 5,638 17.7 New
Liberal Democrats David Nolan 1,756 5.5 −0.9
Green Mike Lammiman 560 1.8 +0.8
Lab Majority 2,856 9.0 −14.3
Turnout 31,866 52.9 −4.5
2019 Registered electors 60,192
Labour hold
Swing 7.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Hull West and Haltemprice constituency will consist of
92.1% of Hull West & Hessle
26.8% of Haltemprice & Howden
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_512_Kingston%20upon%20Hull%20West%20and%20Haltemprice_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
It could be argued that the Hull element has already been diluted by the addition of the town of Hessle, which is in the East Riding of Yorkshire for the purposes of local government, since 1997. However Hessle, seat immediately to the west of Hull itself on the north bank of the Humber, has not significantly changed the character of the Hull West constituency. It is a little more owner occupied than the average within this seat, with somewhat higher educational qualifications and fewer in routine and semi-routine occupations, but for several election cycles now the council ward representation has seen a duel between Labour and Liberal Democrats, with the Conservatives out of contention. In any case with only 11,700 electors the single Hessle ward is heavily outnumbered by the less than 49,000 within the city boundaries at present.
The dominant ‘Hull West’ portion has usually been strongly Labour and is certainly very working class with a strong pattern of relative deprivation. It includes most of the city centre, situated in the St Andrew’s & Dockland and Central wards. Immediately to the west of them is the ward now called Newington & Gipsyville. Then before Hessle is reached we find Pickering ward on the coast and Boothferry inland (neither to be confused with other places of those names within the Yorkshire and Humberside region) along with Derringham. This western section of Hull is not redolent of the image of an attractive and affluent ‘West End’ found in so many British cities, essentially because of the prevailing wind direction. This is a very down-market set of neighbourhoods. Overall Hull West & Hessle was in the bottom 10% of seats for professional and managerial workers, and in the top decile for those in routine and semi-routine occupations. The same applies, or very nearly applies, to the lack of people with degrees and the high number with no educational qualifications, and indeed for the owner occupation rate; the social housing ratio is highest in the city centre wards.
In the most recent Hull city council elections results, spread across 2022 and 2023 because all wards are not contested every year, Labour won the city centre wards, the Liberal Democrats the others (Boothferry, Derringham and Pickering). The Liberal Democrats patently have failed to translate this municipal success into their general election performance. But what is most striking about the municipal results is a long standing characteristic of elections in the less well off parts of Hull, the extremely low turnout. In May 2023 for example, turnout was 18.9% in Central, 16.5% in St Andrew’s and Docklands, and 15.0% in Newington & Gipsyville. Low turnouts have been endemic in the Newington based ward for decades. Nor is this just a local election phenomenon. In the 2019 general election the turnout in the constituency as a whole was 52.9%. This was the third lowest anywhere in the UK after Hull East and Chorley, the Speaker’s seat which us not fully contested by the major parties. In fact, taking Chorley out for that reason, the three lowest turnouts anywhere were in the three Hull seats. This certainly suggests a serious level of disillusion in and non-engagement with the democratic process.
The number of votes cast in Hull West & Hessle at the last general election was therefore low, fewer than 32,000 in total. This was because the seat is also undersized, with just over 60,000 electors: around 15,000 less than the quota applied by the most recent Boundary Commission. Therefore a substantial chunk of territory has needed to be added, and it has come in the form of the Tranby and Willerby & Kirk Ella wards from Haltemprice & Howden constituency (the seat won by David Davis in the last eight contests, including a byelection he himself triggered). These cover suburbs (which claim to be villages) in the East Riding district, such as Anlaby within Tranby - a name once associated with the Tranby Croft scandal, in which Edward VII, when Prince of Wales, was accused, not for the first time or the last, of having been involved in some species of naughtiness. That he was present at all at the Croft, a mansion near Anlaby, tells something about the social background of the area. The areas to be added are heavily owner occupied: in the 2021 census Willerby MSOA exceeded 80% on this criterion and Kirk Ella 90%, Anlaby 76%. They are middle class, especially the Willerby, which has over 40% in professional and managerial jobs. That this area is far removed from the inner city characteristics of the other end of the constituency is reinforced by the electrical preferences. In the most recent elections in the East Riding authority, in May 2023, Tranby elected two Liberal Democrats but in Willerby & Kirk Ella the Tories won very handsomely, their top candidate over half the vote share, and overall about twice as many as Labour.
In their report the Commission stated that “A handful of respondents suggested a name change to acknowledge Haltemprice in the constituency name, rather than just Hessle”. What they did in response to this less than overwhelming demand was to rename the seat Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice - and poor Hessle has disappeared entirely, though still within the boundaries. Haltemprice is, though the name of a pre-Reformation priory (dissolved in 1536) and a civil parish from 1858 and a Urban District Council from 1935 to 1974, not actually a community. Hessle may feel a little aggrieved.
In addition to the changes which add no fewer than 19,000 voters in the far west end of the seat, the city centre element is reduced as Central ward, which contains Hull’s main station and Hull Royal Infirmary, for example, but also working class residential neighbourhoods such as Sculcoates, is transferred to Hull North. The overall effect would have been to wipe out Emma Hardy’s majority for Labour, which had been reduced to less than 3,000 in December 2019, as the Brexit party took a nearly 18% share, their highest in the three Hull constituencies. Overall there will now be 30,700 voters from the East Riding wards and 43,700 from within the city of Hull, so the two ‘halves’ of the seat will be much more evenly balanced. The extreme demographic figures are all moderated, as the comparative 2021 census tables below show. This clearly will have a political impact.
As it currently looks highly likely that there will be a substantial swing to Labour at the next election, probably in 2024, we shall still not see the first real-life as opposed to notional Conservative victory in Hull since 1959. But we would see a flash across the TV screen stating ‘Labour gain’ in a Hull seat – for the first time in exactly 60 years.
2021 Census, old boundaries, ranks England and Wales
Owner occupied 47.6% 519/573
Private rented 27.3% 86/573
Social rented 25.2% 66/573
White 89.3%
Black 2.3%
Asian 3.8%
Managerial & professional 21.8% 533/573
Routine & Semi-routine 35.1% 12/573
Degree level 23.4% 520/573
No qualifications 24.9% 56/573
2021 Census, new boundaries, ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 19.1% 288/575
Owner occupied 57.5% 432/575
Private rented 23.0% 145/575
Social rented 19.5% 165/575
White 92.2% 256/575
Black 1.6% 262/575
Asian 2.7% 352/575
Managerial & professional 26.2% 474/575
Routine & Semi-routine 31.6% 48/575
Degree level 25.6% 475/575
No qualifications 22.1% 111/575
Students 5.5% 298/575
General Election 2019: Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Emma Hardy 13,384 42.0 −11.1
Conservative Scott Bell 10,528 33.0 +3.2
Brexit Party Michelle Dewberry 5,638 17.7 New
Liberal Democrats David Nolan 1,756 5.5 −0.9
Green Mike Lammiman 560 1.8 +0.8
Lab Majority 2,856 9.0 −14.3
Turnout 31,866 52.9 −4.5
2019 Registered electors 60,192
Labour hold
Swing 7.1 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Hull West and Haltemprice constituency will consist of
92.1% of Hull West & Hessle
26.8% of Haltemprice & Howden
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_512_Kingston%20upon%20Hull%20West%20and%20Haltemprice_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 17686 | 42.5% |
| Lab | 14060 | 33.8% |
| Brexit | 5606 | 13.5% |
| LD | 3837 | 9.2% |
| Grn | 442 | 1.1% |
| Con Majority | 3626 | 8.7% |