Post by Robert Waller on Aug 25, 2023 9:38:12 GMT
It no longer says ‘welcome to the home of the British Army’ at every entrance to the town of Aldershot. But there are signs announcing the borders of ‘Aldershot Barracks – the home of the British Army’. As far as the influence of the military vote within Aldershot constituency goes, it is also right not to over-claim. Not only does the Army play only a small proportional role in employment even here, but the local election turnout recorded in the wards covering the military town (once named Queens after the principal thoroughfare, more recently Wellington) is historically very low (14% in 2011, for example). When local elections coincide with general elections, it reveals that turnout then is also well below average – for example the 45.8% in Wellington in 2010, and 47.7% in Queens in 1992. Labour can win the ‘military’ wards on occasion too, as they did Wellington in 2022 and 2023, though in May 2019 and May 2021 the Conservatives took it; most of the registered voters here will be ‘other ranks’ rather than officers.
These wards elect to Rushmoor Borough council, and that tells us something else about this constituency. Less than half of the population is actually in Aldershot itself. Most of the rest belongs to the town of Farnborough, which was credited with a population of 60,650 in the 2021 census, compared to 39,800 for Aldershot. There must be a case for brevity, but there was also a case for this seat to be renamed, say as Aldershot and Farnborough (or even vice versa); given the frequency (some would say excessive and gratuitous) of the lengthening of seat names by the 2023 Boundary Commission it is almost astonishing that it has not been, where it really might well be justifiable. Of shorter alternatives, the constituency is in the north east corner of Hampshire, but there is already a NE Hants seat. Rushmoor would be accurate, as the boundaries are currently defined to cover the whole of the borough, with the addition of just two wards from Hart (Blackwater/Hawley and Frogmore/Darby Green), and that will still be the case after the minor boundary changes, though now the wards will be Yateley East and Blackwater & Hawley. No doubt some would then object that they have no idea where Rushmoor might be (it took its name from the Rushmoor Arena, an amphitheatre showground built by the Army in 1923 for the Aldershot Military Tattoo, and now used, among other things, for stock car racing). Still, Aldershot has been the name since its creation in 1918 – and since that date it has always elected a Conservative MP. The closest ever contest was a win by 2,816 in 1923 in a straight fight with the Liberals. Labour have never come within 6,500 of victory, not even in 1966, 1997 or 2001. In 1945 Tom Winteringham of the Commonwealth party was given a free run against Oliver Lyttleton, who had held the important post of Minister of Production in Churchill’s wartime cabinet, but he fell short by over 5,000 too.
So the Aldershot seat has a long and strong Conservative history. The latest incumbent, Leo Docherty, beat Labour by over 16,000 with a margin of 35% in 2019. Yet its statistics do not make it stand out, except for those which are a function of the Army presence. For example, it is no.1 for the proportion of Buddhists, no doubt because of the Nepalese ’Gurkha’ presence (it is also very high for ‘other Asian’) which extends to the local restaurant business, and in fact, as far as the staff at Fleet service station on the M3. The Aldershot seat is also in the top ten as far as ‘adults in employment’ goes. Its historic safety is probably due to being in a very Conservative sub-region – the other northern and eastern Hampshire seats are among the strongest in the whole country for the Tories, plus a small, unquantifiable, but distinct tilt to the right due to the connections with the general issue of defence.
Farnborough too has its armed services connections, though more aerial than on the ground. Its airshow has been fascinating plane buffs (and defence contractors) since 1948, but the connection with the Royal Aircraft Establishment is now over a century old. Of Farnborough’s eight Rushmoor wards, Labour almost always wins Cherrywood, with its high social rented percentage, and the Liberal Democrats strongest in St Marks, which includes North Camp as well as South Farnborough. The other six have usually been Tory, but in the most recent Rushmoor elections in May 2023 Labour gained Empress, the central ward which includes both Farnborough stations, and Fernhill (Fox Lane, north west). They were also only 27 votes behind in West Heath and 14 behind in St John’s, leaving only Cove & Southwood and Knellwood (Farnborough Park, where the largest houses, in tree lined aanues, are to be found) as safely Conservative.
In 2023 in Aldershot, as well as winning military Wellington, Labour took the council estate ward of Aldershot Park (in the south-east of the town and formerly largely the Heron Wood ward) with a 72% share, and the gritty North Town, between the shopping centre and the military town, with 73.5%. In addition they gained Manor Park (inner south Aldershot) and Rowhill (south west) from the Tories, for a clean sweep of Aldershot itself.
As these individual ward result reports indicate, Labour seem to have become very competitive indeed in Rushmoor elections. Indeed, adding up all the votes in May 2023 within Aldershot on the new boundaries, as Adam Gray has done, leads to the striking finding that Labour were ahead, with a 41.3% share to 35.8% for the Conservatives. Admittedly the new addition of Yateley East is strongly Liberal Democrat at council level and accounts for a substantial chunk of the 22% they polled in the wards across the new Aldershot. In general elections it is not likely to give over 60% to the LDs, who are not competitive here in national contests – and Yateley is not favourable to Labour should that vote break apart in a 2024 general election. Nevertheless, that Labour should be receiving the most votes in the Aldershot seat a maximum of 18 months or so before Rishi Sunak has to face the electorate is an alarming state of affairs for his party.
Can Labour win in the heat of an election battle of Aldershot? Every skirmish, engagement, encounter, fray, encounter and clash to pick a representative for Parliament has been won since the end of the Great War by the Conservative party. Whether that will continue till the time of Armageddon, the last, great conflict – remains to be seen.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.1% 407/575
Owner occupied 64.9% 314/575
Private rented 20.0% 203/575
Social rented 15.1% 282/575
White 79.3% 413/575
Black 2.4% 215/575
Asian 13.3% 114/575
(‘Other Asian’ 9.4%) 5/575
Buddhist 4.2% 1/575
Managerial & professional 34.1% 254/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.8% 285/575
Degree level 29.9% 343/575
No qualifications 17.7% 294/575
Students 4.9% 415/575
2019 General Election: Aldershot
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Leo Docherty 27,980 58.4 +3.3
Labour Howard Kaye 11,282 23.5 −8.1
Liberal Democrats Alan Hilliar 6,920 14.4 +7.0
Green Donna Wallace 1,750 3.7 +1.4
C Majority 16,698 34.9 +11.4
Turnout 47,932 66.0 +1.8
Registered electors 72,617
Conservative hold
Swing 5.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Aldershot constituency will consist of
100% of Aldershot
6.2% of NE Hampshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_284_Aldershot_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
These wards elect to Rushmoor Borough council, and that tells us something else about this constituency. Less than half of the population is actually in Aldershot itself. Most of the rest belongs to the town of Farnborough, which was credited with a population of 60,650 in the 2021 census, compared to 39,800 for Aldershot. There must be a case for brevity, but there was also a case for this seat to be renamed, say as Aldershot and Farnborough (or even vice versa); given the frequency (some would say excessive and gratuitous) of the lengthening of seat names by the 2023 Boundary Commission it is almost astonishing that it has not been, where it really might well be justifiable. Of shorter alternatives, the constituency is in the north east corner of Hampshire, but there is already a NE Hants seat. Rushmoor would be accurate, as the boundaries are currently defined to cover the whole of the borough, with the addition of just two wards from Hart (Blackwater/Hawley and Frogmore/Darby Green), and that will still be the case after the minor boundary changes, though now the wards will be Yateley East and Blackwater & Hawley. No doubt some would then object that they have no idea where Rushmoor might be (it took its name from the Rushmoor Arena, an amphitheatre showground built by the Army in 1923 for the Aldershot Military Tattoo, and now used, among other things, for stock car racing). Still, Aldershot has been the name since its creation in 1918 – and since that date it has always elected a Conservative MP. The closest ever contest was a win by 2,816 in 1923 in a straight fight with the Liberals. Labour have never come within 6,500 of victory, not even in 1966, 1997 or 2001. In 1945 Tom Winteringham of the Commonwealth party was given a free run against Oliver Lyttleton, who had held the important post of Minister of Production in Churchill’s wartime cabinet, but he fell short by over 5,000 too.
So the Aldershot seat has a long and strong Conservative history. The latest incumbent, Leo Docherty, beat Labour by over 16,000 with a margin of 35% in 2019. Yet its statistics do not make it stand out, except for those which are a function of the Army presence. For example, it is no.1 for the proportion of Buddhists, no doubt because of the Nepalese ’Gurkha’ presence (it is also very high for ‘other Asian’) which extends to the local restaurant business, and in fact, as far as the staff at Fleet service station on the M3. The Aldershot seat is also in the top ten as far as ‘adults in employment’ goes. Its historic safety is probably due to being in a very Conservative sub-region – the other northern and eastern Hampshire seats are among the strongest in the whole country for the Tories, plus a small, unquantifiable, but distinct tilt to the right due to the connections with the general issue of defence.
Farnborough too has its armed services connections, though more aerial than on the ground. Its airshow has been fascinating plane buffs (and defence contractors) since 1948, but the connection with the Royal Aircraft Establishment is now over a century old. Of Farnborough’s eight Rushmoor wards, Labour almost always wins Cherrywood, with its high social rented percentage, and the Liberal Democrats strongest in St Marks, which includes North Camp as well as South Farnborough. The other six have usually been Tory, but in the most recent Rushmoor elections in May 2023 Labour gained Empress, the central ward which includes both Farnborough stations, and Fernhill (Fox Lane, north west). They were also only 27 votes behind in West Heath and 14 behind in St John’s, leaving only Cove & Southwood and Knellwood (Farnborough Park, where the largest houses, in tree lined aanues, are to be found) as safely Conservative.
In 2023 in Aldershot, as well as winning military Wellington, Labour took the council estate ward of Aldershot Park (in the south-east of the town and formerly largely the Heron Wood ward) with a 72% share, and the gritty North Town, between the shopping centre and the military town, with 73.5%. In addition they gained Manor Park (inner south Aldershot) and Rowhill (south west) from the Tories, for a clean sweep of Aldershot itself.
As these individual ward result reports indicate, Labour seem to have become very competitive indeed in Rushmoor elections. Indeed, adding up all the votes in May 2023 within Aldershot on the new boundaries, as Adam Gray has done, leads to the striking finding that Labour were ahead, with a 41.3% share to 35.8% for the Conservatives. Admittedly the new addition of Yateley East is strongly Liberal Democrat at council level and accounts for a substantial chunk of the 22% they polled in the wards across the new Aldershot. In general elections it is not likely to give over 60% to the LDs, who are not competitive here in national contests – and Yateley is not favourable to Labour should that vote break apart in a 2024 general election. Nevertheless, that Labour should be receiving the most votes in the Aldershot seat a maximum of 18 months or so before Rishi Sunak has to face the electorate is an alarming state of affairs for his party.
Can Labour win in the heat of an election battle of Aldershot? Every skirmish, engagement, encounter, fray, encounter and clash to pick a representative for Parliament has been won since the end of the Great War by the Conservative party. Whether that will continue till the time of Armageddon, the last, great conflict – remains to be seen.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.1% 407/575
Owner occupied 64.9% 314/575
Private rented 20.0% 203/575
Social rented 15.1% 282/575
White 79.3% 413/575
Black 2.4% 215/575
Asian 13.3% 114/575
(‘Other Asian’ 9.4%) 5/575
Buddhist 4.2% 1/575
Managerial & professional 34.1% 254/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.8% 285/575
Degree level 29.9% 343/575
No qualifications 17.7% 294/575
Students 4.9% 415/575
2019 General Election: Aldershot
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Leo Docherty 27,980 58.4 +3.3
Labour Howard Kaye 11,282 23.5 −8.1
Liberal Democrats Alan Hilliar 6,920 14.4 +7.0
Green Donna Wallace 1,750 3.7 +1.4
C Majority 16,698 34.9 +11.4
Turnout 47,932 66.0 +1.8
Registered electors 72,617
Conservative hold
Swing 5.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Aldershot constituency will consist of
100% of Aldershot
6.2% of NE Hampshire
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_284_Aldershot_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 29453 | 56.8% |
| Lab | 11468 | 22.1% |
| LD | 9068 | 17.5% |
| Grn | 1839 | 3.6% |
| Majority | 17985 | 34.7% |
