Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 24, 2023 23:31:25 GMT
Edinburgh South West is a burgh constituency stretching from the Haymakert area in the south-west of Edinburgh's city centre to the outer suburban areas of Swanston, Bonaly, Juniper Green and Barberton in the southern outskirts of the city, as well as the council estates of Wester Hailes and Sighthill in the western outskirts of the city. The constituency follows the Water of Leith as it enters the City of Edinburgh Council area along the foothills of the Pentlands through to the working-class Gorgie area of the city, taking in a number of steadings on the western outskirts of the city along its path, including Glenbrook and Cockburn, as well as the affluent outer suburban villages of Currie and Balerno.
The seat's predecessors of Edinburgh Pentlands and before that Edinburgh South had voted Conservative and Unionist from the 1918 general election up until 1997 when Labour gained the seat. At the 2001 general election the Conservatives fell into third place behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh South constituencies, marking Edinburgh Pentlands and later Edinburgh South West as their last remaining target seat in the city of Edinburgh. In fact, on more favourable boundaries the Conservatives won the Edinburgh Pentlands seat in Scottish Parliamentary elections held in 2003 and 2007. Since 2015, Edinburgh South West has been represented by Joanna Cherry, a controversial figure within the SNP.
Looking closer at the demography of the seat and the reasons as to why the Conservatives failed to win this seat in their 2017 recovery election in Scotland, close to half of this seat is made up of areas that are bad for the Conservatives. The old Edinburgh Pentlands seat in contrast to the current Edinburgh South West boundary excluded working-class areas like Slateford, Gorgie, North Merchiston and Haymarket and included the highly affluent areas of southern Morningside, Fairmilehead, Greenbank, Comiston and the Braids which now belong to Edinburgh South. In the current Edinburgh South West seat, the Conservatives perform poorly as you approach the city centre of Edinburgh and more metropolitian areas of Haymarket, Fountainbridge and North Merchiston, and west of there, in the highly deprived highly condensed sandstone tenements of Gorgie, and further west from that yet more ex-council tenements in Stenhouse, then the council estate of Broomhouse, then the brutalist estates of Wester Hailes and Sighthill on the western outskirts of the city.
In the Sighthill and Gorgie council ward the figures were stark at last year's council elections: 36% for the SNP, 23% for Labour, 13% for the Greens and just 12% for the Conservatives. This ward is estimated to have voted around 53% Yes and 47% No in the 2014 independence referendum.
And in Wester Hailes, which is the most deprived part of Edinburgh with historical issues relating to crime and drug deaths, the Yes vote would have been much higher, voting approximately 64% Yes to independence despite a No vote in the wider Pentland Hills ward.
In the south of the city bordering onto Edinburgh South constituency and surrounded by affluent suburbs like Swanston, Craiglockhart, Greenbank and Comiston is another ex-council estate with high rates of deprivation, the Oxgangs estate, and the more middle-affluent ex-council estate of Colinton Mains. Polling figures are difficult to gauge for Oxgangs as it was counted with other areas in the 2022 local elections, however the Oxgangs North & Colinton Mains polling district was in fact relatively poor for the SNP, voting 33.3% Labour, 33% SNP and 19% Conservative, suggesting lower rates of support for independence in the area.
Now looking at "how the other half live". Starting south-west of Gorgie and Foutainbridge is the commuter bungalow area of Craiglockhart, and further south-west from there is yet more detached bungalows and rows of detached housing in the historic village of Colinton and adjoining suburbs of Bonaly, Redford and Dreghorn on the very outskirts of Edinburgh. These areas are amongst the most affluent in the whole of Scotland, and they held up better for the Conservatives in the 2022 local election than suburban areas south and east of Craiglockhart, with a Conservative vote ranging from upwards of 40% in Craiglockhart to 33% in parts of Bonaly.
Swanston, a very affluent suburb south-east of Craiglockhart, may have actually voted Labour in last year's local elections, with polling districts covering Swanston, Oxgangs and Colinton Mains having Labour ahead of the Conservatives. It is important to note across the board in the Colinton & Fairmilehead ward Labour performed well and were able to come first in the ward as a whole which had traditionally been strongly Conservative with Labour on 33.4% of the vote, the Conservatives on 29.9% and the SNP on 17.2%, though the Labour-leaning Fairmilehead, Greenbank and Comiston areas in the ward are part of Edinburgh South constituency. The Conservative vote in the ward was down from 49.8% in 2017 to 29.9% last year - close to a 20% drop - and in 2017 it was the only ward in Scotland where the Conservative vote dropped compared to the previous council election, where they previously took 52% of the vote.
At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, I estimate that Craiglockhart & Fountainbridge ward voted 64% No to independence and Colinton & Fairmilehead ward voted 76% No, the highest No vote in the city of Edinburgh area. Redford is home to Redford Barracks, home to the Royal Scots Greys, Balaclava Company 5th Battalion and it is the headquarters of the Scottish and North Irish Yeomanry.
Equally the predominantly affluent suburban villages of Currie, Juniper Green and Balerno in the south-west of the city voted 36-44% Conservative in last year's council elections, contributing to the Conservatives narrowly polling ahead of the SNP in the Pentland Hills ward with the Conservatives on 34% to the SNP on 31%, however the Conservatives did lose one of their two councillors here to the SNP in the council election. Pentland Hills ward sits around the Edinburgh-average in terms of its support for independence, with an estimated 61% No, with a high No vote over 70% in Balerno, Juniper Green and Currie countered by a high Yes vote in Wester Hailes.
Overall, Edinburgh South West is a mixed constituency, containing areas of high wealth in southern parts of the seat contrasting areas of relatively high deprivation in the north, in addition to metropolitian areas in the south-western extremity of the city centre around Haymarket, Fountainbridge and North Merchiston.
The constituency boundaries are not changing, and at last year's council election's the SNP led in the constituency with the Conservatives and Labour fighting for second place.
Edinburgh South West was the seat of prominent BetterTogether figure and Labour MP Alistair Darling, who led BetterTogether to win in Edinburgh South West on 62% against independence in the 2014 referendum.
But despite the constituency's unionist credentials, this is also an area that voted highly in favour of remaining within the European Union (72% Remain to 28% Leave), which contributed to a mammoth drop in support for the Conservatives in the 2019 general election and a big win for the SNP's Joanna Cherry, before the Conservatives picked up support at the 2021 Scottish election in the overlapping Edinburgh Pentlands constituency which the SNP won with a 10% majority (compared to a 23% majority in Edinburgh South West in 2019).
A Labour advance here should not be written-off. This is an urban, metropolitan constituency where support for the Conservatives has eroded to Labour in suburban areas and Labour have remained the primary challengers to the SNP in working-class areas.
With a divided opposition and a notable failure of the Conservatives to capture this seat at their high-point in 2017, Joanna Cherry is likely to be re-elected and it is a safe seat for her, however it must be stated that taken as a whole, this constituency is not natural territory for pro-independence parties and a united pro-UK vote in future elections could see off the SNP, but it remains to be seen who that second-place party behind the SNP will be and as we have seen from the SNP's 23% majority and 48% vote share here in the 2019 general election compared to a 42% SNP vote in Edinburgh Pentlands in the 2021 Scottish election, many anti-independence voters here are willing to hold their nose on the constitution question and vote for the SNP in the right circumstances.
In the event of a Scotland-wide victory for Labour, there is a possibility of the party picking up this seat, and they are likely the more serious threat to the SNP in this constituency if current polling figures are accurate.
2014 independence referendum result
NO: 39,509 (61.6%)
YES: 24,659 (38.4%)
2016 EU membership referendum result
REMAIN: 36,269 (72.1%)
LEAVE: 14,008 (27.9%)
2017 general election result
SNP: 17,575 (35.6%)
CON: 16,478 (33.4%)
LAB: 13,213 (26.8%)
LIB: 2,124 (4.3%)
2019 general election result
SNP: 24,830 (47.6%)
CON: 12,848 (24.6%)
LAB: 7,478 (14.3%)
LIB: 4,971 (9.5%)
GRN: 1,265 (2.4%)
BXT: 625 (1.2%)
SDP: 114 (0.2%)
The seat's predecessors of Edinburgh Pentlands and before that Edinburgh South had voted Conservative and Unionist from the 1918 general election up until 1997 when Labour gained the seat. At the 2001 general election the Conservatives fell into third place behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats in Edinburgh Central and Edinburgh South constituencies, marking Edinburgh Pentlands and later Edinburgh South West as their last remaining target seat in the city of Edinburgh. In fact, on more favourable boundaries the Conservatives won the Edinburgh Pentlands seat in Scottish Parliamentary elections held in 2003 and 2007. Since 2015, Edinburgh South West has been represented by Joanna Cherry, a controversial figure within the SNP.
Looking closer at the demography of the seat and the reasons as to why the Conservatives failed to win this seat in their 2017 recovery election in Scotland, close to half of this seat is made up of areas that are bad for the Conservatives. The old Edinburgh Pentlands seat in contrast to the current Edinburgh South West boundary excluded working-class areas like Slateford, Gorgie, North Merchiston and Haymarket and included the highly affluent areas of southern Morningside, Fairmilehead, Greenbank, Comiston and the Braids which now belong to Edinburgh South. In the current Edinburgh South West seat, the Conservatives perform poorly as you approach the city centre of Edinburgh and more metropolitian areas of Haymarket, Fountainbridge and North Merchiston, and west of there, in the highly deprived highly condensed sandstone tenements of Gorgie, and further west from that yet more ex-council tenements in Stenhouse, then the council estate of Broomhouse, then the brutalist estates of Wester Hailes and Sighthill on the western outskirts of the city.
In the Sighthill and Gorgie council ward the figures were stark at last year's council elections: 36% for the SNP, 23% for Labour, 13% for the Greens and just 12% for the Conservatives. This ward is estimated to have voted around 53% Yes and 47% No in the 2014 independence referendum.
And in Wester Hailes, which is the most deprived part of Edinburgh with historical issues relating to crime and drug deaths, the Yes vote would have been much higher, voting approximately 64% Yes to independence despite a No vote in the wider Pentland Hills ward.
In the south of the city bordering onto Edinburgh South constituency and surrounded by affluent suburbs like Swanston, Craiglockhart, Greenbank and Comiston is another ex-council estate with high rates of deprivation, the Oxgangs estate, and the more middle-affluent ex-council estate of Colinton Mains. Polling figures are difficult to gauge for Oxgangs as it was counted with other areas in the 2022 local elections, however the Oxgangs North & Colinton Mains polling district was in fact relatively poor for the SNP, voting 33.3% Labour, 33% SNP and 19% Conservative, suggesting lower rates of support for independence in the area.
Now looking at "how the other half live". Starting south-west of Gorgie and Foutainbridge is the commuter bungalow area of Craiglockhart, and further south-west from there is yet more detached bungalows and rows of detached housing in the historic village of Colinton and adjoining suburbs of Bonaly, Redford and Dreghorn on the very outskirts of Edinburgh. These areas are amongst the most affluent in the whole of Scotland, and they held up better for the Conservatives in the 2022 local election than suburban areas south and east of Craiglockhart, with a Conservative vote ranging from upwards of 40% in Craiglockhart to 33% in parts of Bonaly.
Swanston, a very affluent suburb south-east of Craiglockhart, may have actually voted Labour in last year's local elections, with polling districts covering Swanston, Oxgangs and Colinton Mains having Labour ahead of the Conservatives. It is important to note across the board in the Colinton & Fairmilehead ward Labour performed well and were able to come first in the ward as a whole which had traditionally been strongly Conservative with Labour on 33.4% of the vote, the Conservatives on 29.9% and the SNP on 17.2%, though the Labour-leaning Fairmilehead, Greenbank and Comiston areas in the ward are part of Edinburgh South constituency. The Conservative vote in the ward was down from 49.8% in 2017 to 29.9% last year - close to a 20% drop - and in 2017 it was the only ward in Scotland where the Conservative vote dropped compared to the previous council election, where they previously took 52% of the vote.
At the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, I estimate that Craiglockhart & Fountainbridge ward voted 64% No to independence and Colinton & Fairmilehead ward voted 76% No, the highest No vote in the city of Edinburgh area. Redford is home to Redford Barracks, home to the Royal Scots Greys, Balaclava Company 5th Battalion and it is the headquarters of the Scottish and North Irish Yeomanry.
Equally the predominantly affluent suburban villages of Currie, Juniper Green and Balerno in the south-west of the city voted 36-44% Conservative in last year's council elections, contributing to the Conservatives narrowly polling ahead of the SNP in the Pentland Hills ward with the Conservatives on 34% to the SNP on 31%, however the Conservatives did lose one of their two councillors here to the SNP in the council election. Pentland Hills ward sits around the Edinburgh-average in terms of its support for independence, with an estimated 61% No, with a high No vote over 70% in Balerno, Juniper Green and Currie countered by a high Yes vote in Wester Hailes.
Overall, Edinburgh South West is a mixed constituency, containing areas of high wealth in southern parts of the seat contrasting areas of relatively high deprivation in the north, in addition to metropolitian areas in the south-western extremity of the city centre around Haymarket, Fountainbridge and North Merchiston.
The constituency boundaries are not changing, and at last year's council election's the SNP led in the constituency with the Conservatives and Labour fighting for second place.
Edinburgh South West was the seat of prominent BetterTogether figure and Labour MP Alistair Darling, who led BetterTogether to win in Edinburgh South West on 62% against independence in the 2014 referendum.
But despite the constituency's unionist credentials, this is also an area that voted highly in favour of remaining within the European Union (72% Remain to 28% Leave), which contributed to a mammoth drop in support for the Conservatives in the 2019 general election and a big win for the SNP's Joanna Cherry, before the Conservatives picked up support at the 2021 Scottish election in the overlapping Edinburgh Pentlands constituency which the SNP won with a 10% majority (compared to a 23% majority in Edinburgh South West in 2019).
A Labour advance here should not be written-off. This is an urban, metropolitan constituency where support for the Conservatives has eroded to Labour in suburban areas and Labour have remained the primary challengers to the SNP in working-class areas.
With a divided opposition and a notable failure of the Conservatives to capture this seat at their high-point in 2017, Joanna Cherry is likely to be re-elected and it is a safe seat for her, however it must be stated that taken as a whole, this constituency is not natural territory for pro-independence parties and a united pro-UK vote in future elections could see off the SNP, but it remains to be seen who that second-place party behind the SNP will be and as we have seen from the SNP's 23% majority and 48% vote share here in the 2019 general election compared to a 42% SNP vote in Edinburgh Pentlands in the 2021 Scottish election, many anti-independence voters here are willing to hold their nose on the constitution question and vote for the SNP in the right circumstances.
In the event of a Scotland-wide victory for Labour, there is a possibility of the party picking up this seat, and they are likely the more serious threat to the SNP in this constituency if current polling figures are accurate.
2014 independence referendum result
NO: 39,509 (61.6%)
YES: 24,659 (38.4%)
2016 EU membership referendum result
REMAIN: 36,269 (72.1%)
LEAVE: 14,008 (27.9%)
2017 general election result
SNP: 17,575 (35.6%)
CON: 16,478 (33.4%)
LAB: 13,213 (26.8%)
LIB: 2,124 (4.3%)
2019 general election result
SNP: 24,830 (47.6%)
CON: 12,848 (24.6%)
LAB: 7,478 (14.3%)
LIB: 4,971 (9.5%)
GRN: 1,265 (2.4%)
BXT: 625 (1.2%)
SDP: 114 (0.2%)
