Post by Robert Waller on Aug 24, 2023 13:56:30 GMT
Scunthorpe has had a ‘bad press’. First, there’s that name. With its hints of ‘scunge’ and ‘scum’, it suggests grime; and that’s to say nothing of that most of reviled swear words in the middle. Then there’s the image, of a gritty steel manufacturing town in the wilds of north Lincolnshire, a long way from anywhere and on the road to nowhere, and hardly worth a visit in its own right. The deeply unsuccessful and financially challenged soccer team, which has now slipped not only out of the Football League but as far as the murky depths of National League North, is known as ‘The Iron’. Less known, while the highly successful but unrelievedly grim 1970s crime saga starring Michael Caine, Get Carter, was filmed in and around Newcastle on Tyne, the book (Jack’s Return Home) on which it was based was set in Scunthorpe. Its author, Ted Lewis, died there aged 42 of an alcohol related illness. Therefore when the Conservatives gained the Scunthorpe parliamentary constituency in the 2019 general election it seemed like yet another key part of the red wall had fallen.
This however, would be an over-simplification. Holly Mumby-Croft is not the first Conservative MP to represent the town. Michael Brown won in 1979 and moved to a safer seat in the redistribution of seats in 1983, but Richard Hickmet actually retained it in that year. Even when Labour have won, the margins have often been narrow: between 2.500 and 3,500 in the three elections of 2010, 2015 and 2017, for example. For those interested in the nomenclature of constituencies, there have been many changes here. For many decades Scunthorpe did not seem to have a seat of its own. Until February 1974 its name did not appear at all; it was included within the Lincolnshire county constituency of Brigg, even though Scunthorpe had been by far the largest town there since at least the 1920s, when three major ironworks were developed – Appleby-Frodingham, Normanby and Redbourn. From 1974 to 1983 the town took second billing in Brigg & Scunthorpe; then again from 1983 to 1997 in Glanford & Scunthorpe. Yet since 1997, although the seat has been at its most concentrated on Scunthorpe itself, with less extraneous territory it has not been any safer for Labour. Indeed the ‘Brigg’ division was never Conservative from 1935 right through to 1970. On the other hand the Scunthorpe seat on its present boundaries had not had a secure and strong Labour majority since the three Blair elections.
The reason for its marginality is not primarily because of economic or demographic change. In fact in the 2011 census Scunthorpe actually ranked at no.1 out of the 650 seats for employment in manufacturing, and although the one remaining steelworks at Frodingham has subsequently been sold several times, most recently to the Chinese group Jingye, there is still steel production here even in Britain’s highly depleted industrial economic structure. If anything, the most recent swing to the Conservatives is because, not in spite of, Scunthorpe remaining strongly working class. It was over 95% of the way down the list of those with degrees as their highest educational qualification in the 2021 Census for England and Wales. It is even higher, in the national top ten, for routine and semi-routine occupations, and even more exceptionally high for lower supervisory and technical workers. In 2016 it is estimated that Scunthorpe voted between 68% and 69% to leave the European Union, and that is not unconnected to those enduring demographics. It is also strongly connected to a 12.8% swing in December 2019 which ousted Nic Dakin by nearly 6,500 votes.
As is the case in a number of other places, Labour has done better recently in local elections. For example, if one looks at a map of North Lincolnshire unitary authority’s May 2023 contests, the town of Scunthorpe looks like a solid red island surrounded by a sea of blue.
Map here, but results not complete en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_North_Lincolnshire_Council_election
Solid, because that year Labour won every ward in the town, some very easily by a proportion of over two to one, like Brumby, Crosby & Park, Frodingham, Kingsway & Lincoln Gardens and Town, although less overwhelmingly in the two Ashby wards. There are actually some variations in this bloc of generally down-market semi-detached housing, with a middle class enclave round Kingsway and Central Park, and on Church Lane near the general hospital; and an ethnic minority presence (19% Asian in Scunthorpe Central % Crosby MSOA, 2021 census) rising to 40% in the OAs in the older terraces of the run-down central Town ward, and to some extent Berkeley MSOA (14.5%). The highest remaining social rented housing tenure section is in the south western corner - neighbourhood Riddings, ward Brumby – at 40% in 2021.
Even on existing boundaries, there are some other communities in this constituency, although the largest, Bottesford, is contiguous with Scunthorpe’s urban area. It did however strongly resist attempts to incorporate it into the former Scunthorpe borough before the creation of the North Lincolnshire unitary in 1996, and has a very different profile with 89% of the housing being owner-occupied. Bottesford remained Conservative in May 2023. The other extraneous territory include the strongly Tory Ridge ward to the south, centred on the village of Kirton in Lindsey (famed for its second world war fighter aerodrome), and the slightly more marginal and urban Messingham. However this non-Scunthorpe section is set to increase in size and influence.
The existing Scunthorpe constituency had an electorate of 61,955 in December 2019. Therefore, to bring it within the permitted range, the Boundary Commission proposed (and confirmed, after the completion of the inquiries) to expand the constituency northwards to include the ward of Burton upon Stather & Winterton, and westwards to include the Burringham & Gunness ward. The former voted Conservative by nearly two to one in May 2023, the latter was much more close in 2023 (and was in fact a gain from Labour in 2019), as it is a Trent riverfront ward, predominantly working class and industrial, dominated by the Solventis petroleum products plant. Nevertheless, the necessary boundary changes will make Labour’s task of regaining the Scunthorpe seat somewhat harder, adding over 3,000 to the notional lead, requiring a swing next time of about 11%. Yet it will not be the expanded boundaries that will be their main problem, but rather the need to regain the affections of their traditional supporters within the town of Scunthorpe itself. History suggests that this will not simply be a matter of waiting for the Brexit issue to die down. This out of the way and profoundly unglamorous constituency will be a key test of Labour’s ability to return to government with an overall majority.
2011 Census, old boundaries ranks UK
Owner-occupied 64.7% 390/650
Private rented 14.3% 316/650
Social rented 19.3% 241/650
White 93.9% 347/650
Black 0.4% 389/650
Asian 4.4% 255/650
Managerial & professional 21.3%
Lower supervisory and technical 10.8% 5/650
Routine & Semi-routine 38.0%
Employed in manufacturing 22.3% 1/650
Process, plant and machine operatives 14.3% 5/650
Elementary occupations 17.4% 14/650
Degree level 16.9% 592/650
No qualifications 27.4% 161/650
2021 Census, new boundaries Ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 20.5% 228/575
Owner occupied 64.1% 333/575
Private rented 18.3% 277/575
Social rented 17.6% 209/575
White 92.1% 260/575
Black 0.7% 400/575
Asian 5.4% 271/575
Managerial & professional 22.9% 525/575
Routine & Semi-routine 35.5% 9/575
Degree level 21.9% 551/575
No qualifications 23.4% 72/575
Students 5.4% 313/575
General Election 2019: Scunthorpe
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Holly Mumby-Croft 20,306 53.8 +10.3
Labour Nic Dakin 13,855 36.7 -15.3
Brexit Party Jerry Gorman 2,044 5.4
Liberal Democrats Ryk Downes 875 2.3 +0.9
Green Peter Dennington 670 1.8
C Majority 6,451 17.1
2019 electorate 61,955
Turnout 37,750 60.9 -4.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 12.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Scunthorpe constituency will consist of
100% of Scunthorpe
17.8% of Brigg & Goole
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_529_Scunthorpe_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
This however, would be an over-simplification. Holly Mumby-Croft is not the first Conservative MP to represent the town. Michael Brown won in 1979 and moved to a safer seat in the redistribution of seats in 1983, but Richard Hickmet actually retained it in that year. Even when Labour have won, the margins have often been narrow: between 2.500 and 3,500 in the three elections of 2010, 2015 and 2017, for example. For those interested in the nomenclature of constituencies, there have been many changes here. For many decades Scunthorpe did not seem to have a seat of its own. Until February 1974 its name did not appear at all; it was included within the Lincolnshire county constituency of Brigg, even though Scunthorpe had been by far the largest town there since at least the 1920s, when three major ironworks were developed – Appleby-Frodingham, Normanby and Redbourn. From 1974 to 1983 the town took second billing in Brigg & Scunthorpe; then again from 1983 to 1997 in Glanford & Scunthorpe. Yet since 1997, although the seat has been at its most concentrated on Scunthorpe itself, with less extraneous territory it has not been any safer for Labour. Indeed the ‘Brigg’ division was never Conservative from 1935 right through to 1970. On the other hand the Scunthorpe seat on its present boundaries had not had a secure and strong Labour majority since the three Blair elections.
The reason for its marginality is not primarily because of economic or demographic change. In fact in the 2011 census Scunthorpe actually ranked at no.1 out of the 650 seats for employment in manufacturing, and although the one remaining steelworks at Frodingham has subsequently been sold several times, most recently to the Chinese group Jingye, there is still steel production here even in Britain’s highly depleted industrial economic structure. If anything, the most recent swing to the Conservatives is because, not in spite of, Scunthorpe remaining strongly working class. It was over 95% of the way down the list of those with degrees as their highest educational qualification in the 2021 Census for England and Wales. It is even higher, in the national top ten, for routine and semi-routine occupations, and even more exceptionally high for lower supervisory and technical workers. In 2016 it is estimated that Scunthorpe voted between 68% and 69% to leave the European Union, and that is not unconnected to those enduring demographics. It is also strongly connected to a 12.8% swing in December 2019 which ousted Nic Dakin by nearly 6,500 votes.
As is the case in a number of other places, Labour has done better recently in local elections. For example, if one looks at a map of North Lincolnshire unitary authority’s May 2023 contests, the town of Scunthorpe looks like a solid red island surrounded by a sea of blue.
Map here, but results not complete en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_North_Lincolnshire_Council_election
Solid, because that year Labour won every ward in the town, some very easily by a proportion of over two to one, like Brumby, Crosby & Park, Frodingham, Kingsway & Lincoln Gardens and Town, although less overwhelmingly in the two Ashby wards. There are actually some variations in this bloc of generally down-market semi-detached housing, with a middle class enclave round Kingsway and Central Park, and on Church Lane near the general hospital; and an ethnic minority presence (19% Asian in Scunthorpe Central % Crosby MSOA, 2021 census) rising to 40% in the OAs in the older terraces of the run-down central Town ward, and to some extent Berkeley MSOA (14.5%). The highest remaining social rented housing tenure section is in the south western corner - neighbourhood Riddings, ward Brumby – at 40% in 2021.
Even on existing boundaries, there are some other communities in this constituency, although the largest, Bottesford, is contiguous with Scunthorpe’s urban area. It did however strongly resist attempts to incorporate it into the former Scunthorpe borough before the creation of the North Lincolnshire unitary in 1996, and has a very different profile with 89% of the housing being owner-occupied. Bottesford remained Conservative in May 2023. The other extraneous territory include the strongly Tory Ridge ward to the south, centred on the village of Kirton in Lindsey (famed for its second world war fighter aerodrome), and the slightly more marginal and urban Messingham. However this non-Scunthorpe section is set to increase in size and influence.
The existing Scunthorpe constituency had an electorate of 61,955 in December 2019. Therefore, to bring it within the permitted range, the Boundary Commission proposed (and confirmed, after the completion of the inquiries) to expand the constituency northwards to include the ward of Burton upon Stather & Winterton, and westwards to include the Burringham & Gunness ward. The former voted Conservative by nearly two to one in May 2023, the latter was much more close in 2023 (and was in fact a gain from Labour in 2019), as it is a Trent riverfront ward, predominantly working class and industrial, dominated by the Solventis petroleum products plant. Nevertheless, the necessary boundary changes will make Labour’s task of regaining the Scunthorpe seat somewhat harder, adding over 3,000 to the notional lead, requiring a swing next time of about 11%. Yet it will not be the expanded boundaries that will be their main problem, but rather the need to regain the affections of their traditional supporters within the town of Scunthorpe itself. History suggests that this will not simply be a matter of waiting for the Brexit issue to die down. This out of the way and profoundly unglamorous constituency will be a key test of Labour’s ability to return to government with an overall majority.
2011 Census, old boundaries ranks UK
Owner-occupied 64.7% 390/650
Private rented 14.3% 316/650
Social rented 19.3% 241/650
White 93.9% 347/650
Black 0.4% 389/650
Asian 4.4% 255/650
Managerial & professional 21.3%
Lower supervisory and technical 10.8% 5/650
Routine & Semi-routine 38.0%
Employed in manufacturing 22.3% 1/650
Process, plant and machine operatives 14.3% 5/650
Elementary occupations 17.4% 14/650
Degree level 16.9% 592/650
No qualifications 27.4% 161/650
2021 Census, new boundaries Ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 20.5% 228/575
Owner occupied 64.1% 333/575
Private rented 18.3% 277/575
Social rented 17.6% 209/575
White 92.1% 260/575
Black 0.7% 400/575
Asian 5.4% 271/575
Managerial & professional 22.9% 525/575
Routine & Semi-routine 35.5% 9/575
Degree level 21.9% 551/575
No qualifications 23.4% 72/575
Students 5.4% 313/575
General Election 2019: Scunthorpe
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Holly Mumby-Croft 20,306 53.8 +10.3
Labour Nic Dakin 13,855 36.7 -15.3
Brexit Party Jerry Gorman 2,044 5.4
Liberal Democrats Ryk Downes 875 2.3 +0.9
Green Peter Dennington 670 1.8
C Majority 6,451 17.1
2019 electorate 61,955
Turnout 37,750 60.9 -4.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 12.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Scunthorpe constituency will consist of
100% of Scunthorpe
17.8% of Brigg & Goole
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_529_Scunthorpe_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 26616 | 56.3% |
| Lab | 16483 | 34.9% |
| Brexit | 2044 | 4.3% |
| LD | 1249 | 2.6% |
| Green | 866 | 1.8% |
| Con Majority | 10133 | 21.4% |
