Post by John Chanin on Aug 23, 2023 7:06:00 GMT
This is an unusually polarized seat, that can be divided into 3 distinctly different parts. Firstly there is a narrow strip alongside the Thames, starting with the Tower of London in the west, and passing the St Katharine’s dock area into Wapping and on into Limehouse. Historically this was the first port of London, with wharves, warehouses and docks lining the river, but this activity moved down the river long ago to the Isle of Dogs, the Royal Docks, Tilbury, and now Coryton. Limehouse was full of sailors, and known for its Chinese community, and this seat as a whole still has the largest Chinese community in the country outside Sheffield Central (where they are students). The Regents Canal which meanders through north London, starts in the Limehouse basin, where it connects to the Thames. But now the riverside has been redeveloped into smart modern flats, occupied by the well-off working in the City. Two-thirds of the residents have degrees and do managerial or professional jobs. Almost half the population rents privately, and 60% is white. There is a thin veneer of social housing of a much older vintage also, with a predominantly Bangladeshi population. Politically this has been favourable ground for the Conservatives, who usually have councillors here, although not since 2018.
The second area is newer in its development, but increasingly similar in its demographics, and consists of the Isle of Dogs, a peninsula between the great bend of the Thames. This area also had docks - larger and newer - but was bombed flat in the second world war, and never recovered, the West India and Millwall docks finally closing in the 1960s. Large swathes of the Island remained derelict, and the interspersed council estates, originally built for the dock workers, were occupied by unhappy, and mostly white tenants who gave strong support to the BNP in the 1990s. Revival was triggered by the development of the huge Canary Wharf site, and its success in enticing financial services companies out of the City into the modern offices much more suited to the digital age. Following City workers came the retail facilities, bars, and restaurants they demanded, and then up market flatted development, which is still continuing. As the population of the area has exploded, there are now three council wards here, one named Canary Wharf, with a population of 55,000, but an electorate of just 27,000, as a lot of the residents are ineligible to vote. The older council housing is concentrated in Millwall, at the southern end of the peninsula, but there has also been much new social housing constructed as part of the planning conditions for the development boom, and just under a quarter of households are social housing tenants, and no doubt a much higher proportion of the population in general and the voting population in particular. As a result owner-occupation is lower here than in Limehouse, but private renting is even higher, and it is slightly down market, although 60% of the population still have degrees, and 65% have managerial jobs. The Bangladeshi population is also higher , but still less than 20%, and the white population drops to a little less than 50%, with black and other asian residents higher, with 10% Chinese around Canary Wharf. Politically the Conservatives have also had local success here, though with strong challenges from Labour, and the well organized Bangladeshi localist parties, who won 2 of the 3 wards in 2022.
These two areas account for half the electorate. The other half, inland, is Poplar and Mile End, which is a more traditional working class area and a completely different world. Very nearly half the population is Bangladeshi here, with just a third white. Social housing is still close to 50%, and most of the housing is old, and quite a lot of it overcrowded and run down. As in neighbouring Bethnal Green & Stepney, the population is surprisingly well-educated though, with a preponderance of white-collar jobs, although nowhere near as high as along the riverside. Politically this is part of the area of strength of the well-organised Bangladeshi localist parties, directed since 2010 by Lutfur Rahman, elected mayor, disqualified, and now re-elected. His Aspire party won a majority of councillors here at the 2022 elections, although Labour was more competitive than in Bethnal Green, a very similar result to his previous Tower Hamlets First party in 2014. Prior to this, Respect councillors were elected in 2006, and a number of Labour councillors defected to Respect before the 2010 election, although ironically it was Rahman, then leader of Labour on the council, who saw them off.
The demographic statistics given below for the constituency as a whole, are therefore misleading, given the polarization. But they do add up to a distinctive pattern common to many inner east London seats. Owner-occupation is in the bottom 10 in the country and private renting the top 10. Managerial jobs and people with degrees are in the top 30, helped by the fact that this is the very youngest seat in the whole country. And it is a “majority minority seat”, with the second highest Bangladeshi community in Britain after neighbouring Bethnal Green & Stepney.
The continued growth of the electorate - over 90,000 at the last election, means that boundary changes are required. These have weakened the working-class Bangladeshi social housing section, by the transfer of Shadwell ward to Bethnal Green & Stepney, and of the Bromley North ward to the new Stratford & Bow seat. As noted above the two halves of the seat are now almost equal, and the balance between Labour and Conservative likely to shift in favour of the latter, although nowhere near enough of course for them to have any realistic hope of winning the seat. However the wild card is Aspire. Politics in Tower Hamlets has been personal and bitter here for well over a decade. There was a large Respect vote in 2005, and George Galloway famously won the neighbouring Bethnal Green seat at the 2005 General Election. He did not defend in 2010, but stood in Poplar & Limehouse instead, finishing a strong third. The current MP, following the retirement of anti-EU former fireman Jim Fitzpatrick in 2019, is Apsana Begum, who survived an attempt to deselect her, following accusations of fraud. There was no localist challenge in the last 3 elections, and Aspire did not formally run a candidate in 2024, but Begum’s ex-husband stood against her, and did much less well than other independent muslim candidates in the East End, and it was the Greens who finished second here - a long way behind.
Census data: Owner-occupied 27% (567/575 in England & Wales), private rented 43% (6th), social rented 31% (32nd).
: White 40%(554th), Black 8%(85th), South Asian 36%(18th), Mixed 5%(67th), Other 11%(48th)
: Managerial & professional 58% (19th), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (517th)
: Degree 54% (26th), Minimal qualifications 21% (511th)
: Students 12% (67th), Over 65: 5% (575th)
: Muslim 36% (13th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Poplar & Limehouse
82% of the old seat is in the new one, with 11% going to Bethnal Green & Stepney, and 8% to Stratford & Bow
The second area is newer in its development, but increasingly similar in its demographics, and consists of the Isle of Dogs, a peninsula between the great bend of the Thames. This area also had docks - larger and newer - but was bombed flat in the second world war, and never recovered, the West India and Millwall docks finally closing in the 1960s. Large swathes of the Island remained derelict, and the interspersed council estates, originally built for the dock workers, were occupied by unhappy, and mostly white tenants who gave strong support to the BNP in the 1990s. Revival was triggered by the development of the huge Canary Wharf site, and its success in enticing financial services companies out of the City into the modern offices much more suited to the digital age. Following City workers came the retail facilities, bars, and restaurants they demanded, and then up market flatted development, which is still continuing. As the population of the area has exploded, there are now three council wards here, one named Canary Wharf, with a population of 55,000, but an electorate of just 27,000, as a lot of the residents are ineligible to vote. The older council housing is concentrated in Millwall, at the southern end of the peninsula, but there has also been much new social housing constructed as part of the planning conditions for the development boom, and just under a quarter of households are social housing tenants, and no doubt a much higher proportion of the population in general and the voting population in particular. As a result owner-occupation is lower here than in Limehouse, but private renting is even higher, and it is slightly down market, although 60% of the population still have degrees, and 65% have managerial jobs. The Bangladeshi population is also higher , but still less than 20%, and the white population drops to a little less than 50%, with black and other asian residents higher, with 10% Chinese around Canary Wharf. Politically the Conservatives have also had local success here, though with strong challenges from Labour, and the well organized Bangladeshi localist parties, who won 2 of the 3 wards in 2022.
These two areas account for half the electorate. The other half, inland, is Poplar and Mile End, which is a more traditional working class area and a completely different world. Very nearly half the population is Bangladeshi here, with just a third white. Social housing is still close to 50%, and most of the housing is old, and quite a lot of it overcrowded and run down. As in neighbouring Bethnal Green & Stepney, the population is surprisingly well-educated though, with a preponderance of white-collar jobs, although nowhere near as high as along the riverside. Politically this is part of the area of strength of the well-organised Bangladeshi localist parties, directed since 2010 by Lutfur Rahman, elected mayor, disqualified, and now re-elected. His Aspire party won a majority of councillors here at the 2022 elections, although Labour was more competitive than in Bethnal Green, a very similar result to his previous Tower Hamlets First party in 2014. Prior to this, Respect councillors were elected in 2006, and a number of Labour councillors defected to Respect before the 2010 election, although ironically it was Rahman, then leader of Labour on the council, who saw them off.
The demographic statistics given below for the constituency as a whole, are therefore misleading, given the polarization. But they do add up to a distinctive pattern common to many inner east London seats. Owner-occupation is in the bottom 10 in the country and private renting the top 10. Managerial jobs and people with degrees are in the top 30, helped by the fact that this is the very youngest seat in the whole country. And it is a “majority minority seat”, with the second highest Bangladeshi community in Britain after neighbouring Bethnal Green & Stepney.
The continued growth of the electorate - over 90,000 at the last election, means that boundary changes are required. These have weakened the working-class Bangladeshi social housing section, by the transfer of Shadwell ward to Bethnal Green & Stepney, and of the Bromley North ward to the new Stratford & Bow seat. As noted above the two halves of the seat are now almost equal, and the balance between Labour and Conservative likely to shift in favour of the latter, although nowhere near enough of course for them to have any realistic hope of winning the seat. However the wild card is Aspire. Politics in Tower Hamlets has been personal and bitter here for well over a decade. There was a large Respect vote in 2005, and George Galloway famously won the neighbouring Bethnal Green seat at the 2005 General Election. He did not defend in 2010, but stood in Poplar & Limehouse instead, finishing a strong third. The current MP, following the retirement of anti-EU former fireman Jim Fitzpatrick in 2019, is Apsana Begum, who survived an attempt to deselect her, following accusations of fraud. There was no localist challenge in the last 3 elections, and Aspire did not formally run a candidate in 2024, but Begum’s ex-husband stood against her, and did much less well than other independent muslim candidates in the East End, and it was the Greens who finished second here - a long way behind.
Census data: Owner-occupied 27% (567/575 in England & Wales), private rented 43% (6th), social rented 31% (32nd).
: White 40%(554th), Black 8%(85th), South Asian 36%(18th), Mixed 5%(67th), Other 11%(48th)
: Managerial & professional 58% (19th), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (517th)
: Degree 54% (26th), Minimal qualifications 21% (511th)
: Students 12% (67th), Over 65: 5% (575th)
: Muslim 36% (13th)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Poplar & Limehouse
82% of the old seat is in the new one, with 11% going to Bethnal Green & Stepney, and 8% to Stratford & Bow
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Labour | 39,558 | 67.3 | 38,660 | 63.1 | 31,176 | 60.3 | 18,535 | 43.1 |
| Conservative | 11,486 | 20.1 | 9,756 | 15.9 | 9,129 | 17.7 | 4,738 | 11.0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 3,959 | 6.7 | 8,832 | 14.4 | 8,009 | 15.5 | 4,189 | 9.7 |
| UKIP/Brexit/Reform | 849 | 1.4 | 1,493 | 2.4 | 1,219 | 2.4 | 3,403 | 7.9 |
| Green | 989 | 1.7 | 2,159 | 3.5 | 1,756 | 3.4 | 5,975 | 13.9 |
| Workers | 1,463 | 3.4 | ||||||
| Other | 1,613 | 2.7 | 376 | 0.6 | 376 | 0.7 | 4,748 | 11.0 |
| Majority | 27,712 | 47.1 | 28,904 | 47.2 | 22,047 | 42.7 | 12,560 | 29.2 |
