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Post by matureleft on Aug 23, 2023 6:55:01 GMT
South Derbyshire existed as a constituency name from 1832 to 1950. A handbill from the 1832 election distributed by the Whigs celebrates Tory despair at the prospect of losing the two seats in spite of hiring a special train from London. Nevertheless the two member constituency returned Conservatives at the next (1835) election and through the 19th Century changed hands fairly often. It then encompassed, in addition to rural areas, much of what would now be the city of Derby. In 1918 it was confined to the areas to the south and east of Derby, including the growing suburbs of the city, as far as Long Eaton. Labour first won it from the Conservatives in 1929, lost it in the 1931 debacle, failed narrowly to regain in 1935 and won massively in 1945. By then the seat was huge – the winning Labour total was over 47,000, and the constituency was broken up in 1950 providing the basis for much of two seats: Belper (held by George Brown) and South East Derbyshire (held by the less well-known Arthur Champion, the victor in 1945 in South Derbyshire).
South Derbyshire was re-established in 1983. From 1983 until 1997 it comprised the district of South Derbyshire with the addition of the contiguous wards of Boulton and Chellaston on the southern edge of Derby City and the ward of Mickleover on its western edge. The growth of Mickleover spelled George Brown's eventual doom in the former Belper seat in 1970 and that ward has been generally heavily Conservative. The wards of Boulton and Chellaston were seen as roughly balancing each other – Boulton Labour and Chellaston Conservative.
For the 1997 election Mickleover was omitted, reflecting substantial population increase – in the 1992 election the electorate exceeded 83,000. The change certainly favoured Labour but the result, a 16 per cent Labour margin, reflected the combination of national and regional swings plus a particularly fatalistic Conservative non-campaign by the MP since 1983, Edwina Currie. The seat was held by Labour's winner (and 1992 loser) Mark Todd with declining, but still comfortable, majorities in the elections of 2001 and 2005.
In 2010 the boundaries changed radically, reflecting an acceleration in population growth, and both Derby wards were omitted. By then those wards had balanced strongly toward Labour, at least in General Elections. This change, plus the influx of many new residents concentrated around Swadlincote, in the growing Derby suburbs of Stenson Fields and Boulton Moor, and in the village of Hilton and the national and regional swing shifted the seat to the Conservatives, a position confirmed at every General Election since with an increasing proportion of the vote – 63% in 2019, making it seemingly safe for the Conservative member, Heather Wheeler. The population has continued to grow with the 2019 electorate just below 80,000. Changes to reflect this could either have removed elements of the rural areas to the north-west of the constituency or the city suburbs – Stenson Fields, Boulton Moor and increasingly Findern (but in the latter two cases requiring the detachment of much larger wards). The Commission opted, unsurprisingly and largely without contention, for removing the north-west wards, Hatton and Hilton. While the single-member Hatton ward contains a decent Labour vote, has returned Labour councillors and was won by Labour on a drawing of lots in the 2023 District election, the two wards together are heavily Conservative.
Looking at the constituency in the early 1990s, the south formed part of the former South Derbyshire coalfield with Swadlincote and its necklace of then semi-detached villages Hartshorne, Woodville, Midway, Newhall, Church Gresley and Castle Gresley and, further out Linton and Overseal. The last pit in the constituency closed in 1988 and the last nearby in 1990. The coalfield communities formed the core Labour vote of George Brown's Belper seat, with many uncontested council seats well into the 1990s. Northwards lay more Conservative territory with villages like Ticknall and Repton (home to the public school featured in the Robert Donat version of Goodbye Mr Chips) and the small town of Melbourne (which sometimes returned Labour councillors on personal votes). A string of villages along the Trent generally leaned Conservative with the Derby suburb of Stenson Fields favouring Labour, with a growing Sikh population, the only significant minority presence in the constituency. The rural area to the north-west was heavily Conservative with the exception of the village of Hatton, home to a large Nestle factory, being more balanced. The A38 and A50 cross the constituency with Toyota's huge UK assembly plant at their junction producing its first car in 1992. East Midlands Airport lay just outside the constituency and was developing national air freight dominance. Two large coal-fired power stations were still active. They are both closed.
There were still elements of pottery activity. In its heyday the Swadlincote area was second only to Stoke for this with local clay resourcing sanitary ware, pipes and a particular craft range, Bretby Art pottery, that is collected. T.G. Green, the producer of blue and white striped Cornish ware, still had a local factory. That closed in 2007 and the sanitary ware and pipe work operations which sat close to the town have given way to retail and housing. A kiln has been preserved as a museum in the town centre.
Housing growth since the early 1990s, almost entirely private and largely substantial family properties, has filled most of the spaces between Swadlincote and its necklace villages. Hilton, a former military depot to the north-west, has become a vast village with one of the biggest primary schools in the country. Stenson Fields has also grown, to a lesser extent. And the suburbs of Derby have also sprawled into South Derbyshire in the north-east corner of the seat in Boulton Moor., outside Chellaston and north of Findern. Those moving into the area have often been drawn from the West Midlands, attracted by the improving road links, an attractive local environment and jobs at Toyota and in its supply chain, and at the airport. While local employment around Swadlincote has grown, many commute out of the area. East Midlands Airport has grown sharply for all forms of traffic and has large air freight handling operations. Toyota employs nearly 3000 people directly. Balancing this the power stations have closed and Rolls-Royce, a major employer in nearby Derby, has repeatedly cut its workforce.
The District Council swung to the Conservatives in 2007 and control was retained by them since then at each election up to, and including, the 2019 contest, although their grip was slightly reduced then. For much of this period, until his death, the council leader was the husband of the MP. However Conservative defections and divisions then presented Labour with minority control of the council from 2020. The 2023 election was a disaster for the Conservatives with Labour being returned with a comfortable majority, but inflated by one ward won on the drawing of lots, another seat won on a clear personal vote and a third in an apparent deal with an ex-Tory independent. To put this in context, every division in the County Council elections of 2021 within the constituency returned a Conservative, although one, Swadlincote South was regained by Labour comfortably in 2023.
The area voted 60 per cent in favour of Brexit and the former Labour strongholds around Swadlincote appeared to support that disproportionately, with significant UKIP votes in all wards in 2015. Neither the Liberal Democrats nor the Greens had any history of success in local government in the district until the Liberal Democrats took two seats of the three available in Hilton ward in 2023. However this ward lies outside the new constituency boundaries.
Favourable boundary changes and local government success might suggest a revival in Labour fortunes but for Labour to challenge in future a very different offer will be required from that on the table since 2010. The historical mining roots of the Labour vote are now distant, although long-serving councillors with backgrounds in the coal industry continued to serve until very recently. House prices have been competitive and new residents are not particularly affluent but, one suspects, Blair's Labour is closer to their agenda than anything since. The emerging Labour programme might suggest something like that. The area has a history of swings comfortably beyond the national average and has a two-party culture.
Labour has selected Samantha Niblett as their candidate. She is Derbyshire based and started the Labour: Women in Tech network. Heather Wheeler's intentions are unknown.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 27, 2023 1:06:39 GMT
For the 1997 election Mickleover was omitted, reflecting substantial population increase – in the 1992 election the electorate exceeded 83,000. The change certainly favoured Labour but the result, a 16 per cent Labour margin, reflected the combination of national and regional swings plus a particularly fatalistic Conservative non-campaign by the MP since 1983, Edwina Currie. The seat was held by Labour's winner (and 1992 loser) Mark Todd with declining, but still comfortable, majorities in the elections of 2001 and 2005. Lol. Did she just not campaign at all or did she just have a negative personal vote by then, probably not helped by the egg scandal (though wasn't that before 1992 where she was re-elected albeit with a much reduced majority). Didn't she also in that time attempt election to the EU parliament in Milton Keynes? What has that got to do with Derbyshire? I can imagine if her failed 'chicken run' to Europe was reported in the local Derbyshire news that would not have gone down well at all. I believe she now lives in the Peak District though, remaining loyal to Derbyshire, except on the opposite end to her former constituency. I didn't know the 'attractive local environment' was a pull factor here (though perhaps as you say if they're coming from the West Midlands it must be an improvement for them). I know Nottingham well and have been to Derby but less so south Derbyshire (but have only gone between the two via Erewash) and found at least in between them though there is green belt, it is just that, just green, farms, not as inspiring at the Dales or Peaks at all, a lot more flat, though not quite Lincolnshire flat I guess. I didn't know about the landscape of South Derbyshire though. Google maps shows a National Trust site in Calke Abbey, so it can't be all that bleak as I originally thought. |
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Post by matureleft on Aug 27, 2023 7:30:25 GMT
For the 1997 election Mickleover was omitted, reflecting substantial population increase – in the 1992 election the electorate exceeded 83,000. The change certainly favoured Labour but the result, a 16 per cent Labour margin, reflected the combination of national and regional swings plus a particularly fatalistic Conservative non-campaign by the MP since 1983, Edwina Currie. The seat was held by Labour's winner (and 1992 loser) Mark Todd with declining, but still comfortable, majorities in the elections of 2001 and 2005. Lol. Did she just not campaign at all or did she just have a negative personal vote by then, probably not helped by the egg scandal (though wasn't that before 1992 where she was re-elected albeit with a much reduced majority). Didn't she also in that time attempt election to the EU parliament in Milton Keynes? What has that got to do with Derbyshire? I can imagine if her failed 'chicken run' to Europe was reported in the local Derbyshire news that would not have gone down well at all. I believe she now lives in the Peak District though, remaining loyal to Derbyshire, except on the opposite end to her former constituency. I didn't know the 'attractive local environment' was a pull factor here (though perhaps as you say if they're coming from the West Midlands it must be an improvement for them). I know Nottingham well and have been to Derby but less so south Derbyshire (but have only gone between the two via Erewash) and found at least in between them though there is green belt, it is just that, just green, farms, not as inspiring at the Dales or Peaks at all, a lot more flat, though not quite Lincolnshire flat I guess. I didn't know about the landscape of South Derbyshire though. Google maps shows a National Trust site in Calke Abbey, so it can't be all that bleak as I originally thought. She scarcely campaigned. Her younger daughter was trying to launch a career in music at the same time and she helped with that. There are some entertaining comments from party members in the Burton Mail, the local paper, as the non-campaign “progressed” about both her absences and her unhelpful remarks in the national media. Some Tory members voted Labour. The egg “scandal” (she had a point but typically spoke carelessly) was history for all but one or two farmers. You should visit. Yes, it’s partly relative - this isn’t the Peaks or Dales. - but Calke Abbey is lovely, the National Forest covers much of the south of the area and has plenty of attractive spots, the river valleys of the Dove and Trent have good walks for those less interested in serious hiking. The area north of Church Broughton heads toward the Dales and has a similar landscape. |
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Post by bungle on Sept 1, 2023 8:01:10 GMT
The District Council swung to the Conservatives in 2007 and control was retained by them since then at each election up to, and including, the 2019 contest, although their grip was slightly reduced then. For much of this period, until his death, the council leader was the husband of the MP. However Conservative defections and divisions then presented Labour with minority control of the council from 2020. The 2023 election was a disaster for the Conservatives with Labour being returned with a comfortable majority, but inflated by one ward won on the drawing of lots, another seat won on a clear personal vote and a third in an apparent deal with an ex-Tory independent. To put this in context, every division in the County Council elections of 2021 within the constituency returned a Conservative. The area voted 60 per cent in favour of Brexit and the former Labour strongholds around Swadlincote appeared to support that disproportionately, with significant UKIP votes in all wards in 2015. Neither the Liberal Democrats nor the Greens had any history of success in local government in the district until the Liberal Democrats took two seats of the three available in Hilton ward. However this ward lies outside the new constituency boundaries. Favourable boundary changes and local government success might suggest a revival in Labour fortunes but for Labour to challenge in future a very different offer will be required from that on the table since 2010. The historical mining roots of the Labour vote are now distant, although long-serving councillors with backgrounds in the coal industry continued to serve until very recently. House prices have been competitive and new residents are not particularly affluent but, one suspects, Blair's Labour is closer to their agenda than anything since. The emerging Labour programme might suggest something like that. The area has a history of swings comfortably beyond the national average and has a two-party culture. A superb and comprehensive profile that really brings out the shifts in demographics and economic activity in this lesser known corner of Derbyshire. It is an area that has radically shifted in 40 years across its territory - the unwinding of the coal mining culture, Toyota, the Derby overspill estates at Stenson Fields/Boulton Moor, the A50 creating great east/west links which make places like Hilton ripe for expansion. The impact all of this has on its politics is fascinating. I agree with the thrust quoted above - the general balance has shifted rightwards but it isn't sticky or culturally ingrained (compared to somewhere like Uxbridge, say) so can swing beyond the national average. The 2021 and 2023 local elections (and the recent Swadlincote by-election) offer some indication of this. The general decline of the 'urban core' Labour vote and the new estates elsewhere do make this a long-shot target for Labour but it seems like they will have a crack. If there is to be a by-election in Tamworth that will offer some clues as to the prevailing mood here - that seat, plus NW Leicestershire, North Warwickshire and South Derbyshire have a lot in common. All except Tamworth were ex-mining areas, all were held by Labour up to 2010 and have now unwound substantially with vote shares of 63-66% for the Conservatives in 2019 (and with concomitant large majorities of 18-20K). With the removal of Hilton and the NW Parishes, this seat could be one to watch. |
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Post by matureleft on Sept 2, 2023 11:34:11 GMT
It’s a long profile, and still lacks the statistics (happy for someone else to do those, or give me a nudge on the sources). But the excellent andrewteale description for the Swadlincote South by election prompted me to add a section on the pottery history of the area… |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 8, 2024 16:37:14 GMT
2021 Census, new boundariesAge 65+ 19.2% 286/575 Owner occupied 75.2% 56/575 Private rented 14.4% 464/575 Social rented 10.4% 500/575 White 93.0% 241/575 Black 0.8% 350/575 Asian 3.7% 310/575 Managerial & professional 34.6% 231/575 Routine & Semi-routine 25.7% 216/575 Degree level 31.1% 308/575 No qualifications 16.6% 349/575 Students 4.8% 432/575 General Election 2019: South DerbyshireParty Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Heather Wheeler 33,502 62.8 +4.1Labour Robert Pearson 14,167 26.5 -9.5 Liberal Democrats Lorraine Johnson 3,924 7.4 +3.8 Green Amanda Baker 1,788 3.3 +1.6 C Majority 19,335 36.3 +13.6Turnout 53,381 67.3 -1.6 Conservative hold Swing 6.8 Lab to C Boundary Changes South Derbyshire consists of 88.4% of South Derbyshire Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/east-midlands/East%20Midlands_043_South%20Derbyshire_Portrait.pdf2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher) | Con | 29319 | 62.1% | | Lab | 12836 | 27.2% | | LD | 3465 | 7.3% | | Green | 1579 | 3.4% | | | | | | Con Majority | 16483 | 34.9% |
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