Post by gerrardwinstanley on Aug 22, 2023 13:14:45 GMT
Following boundary changes for the 1983 general election, the seat of Witney was created. The seat was formed from the constituencies of Banbury and Mid Oxfordshire, taking in the southern and western portions of these seats respectively. Since its formation, it has established itself as a Conservative safe seat. Witney has been represented by four Members of Parliament, all of whom were elected as Conservatives. However, Shaun Woodward, the second person to represent this seat, defected to Labour in 1999, but chose to stand in St Helens South at the 2001 general election. Currently, Witney is represented by the Conservative, Robert Courts.
As of the 2023 boundary review, the seat now covers an area straddling two historic countries, with Faringdon and the territory south of the Thames once part of the ancient county of Berkshire. Indeed, if the initial proposals had been implemented, the Uffington White Horse would have also been incorporated into the Witney constituency. Whilst the seat’s boundaries had changed relatively little since its creation in 1983 – the constituency coterminous with the local council district of West Oxfordshire until now – the 2023 review has altered them quite drastically. In the north of the seat, the Cotswold towns of Chipping Norton and Charlbury have been moved in to the Banbury constituency, where they previously found themselves before the creation of the Witney seat. More controversially, in the east, Woodstock – home to Blenheim Palace – and Eynsham have been absorbed into the new Bicester and Woodstock constituency, the latter large-village has particularly strong connections to the town of Witney. As previously mentioned, the boundary changes have also resulted in the incorporation of areas from south of Thames, from the Vale of White Horse, into the seat. Due to significant population increase in the Vale, retaining "old Berkshire" in a single seat is no longer viable, henceforth its northern and western fringes have been ceded to Witney; the rest of the old Wantage seat has formed its successor, “Didcot and Wantage”. Now, the Witney constituency stretches from the Cotswold hills in the north to the Berkshire Downs in the south, following much of the western border of the ceremonial county of Oxfordshire.
As mentioned in the opening paragraph, the political history of the seat has been one of safety; that is, safety for the Conservative party. The seat was originally won by Douglas Hurd in 1983, who had previously represented Mid Oxfordshire. Hurd went on to serve as Home and Foreign Secretary in the governments of Margaret Thatcher and John Major. At the 1983 election, the Tories won 57.5% percent of the vote in Witney, establishing it as a safe seat. During Labour’s 1997 landslide, Blair’s party did manage to win a respectable 30.6% of the vote, but Witney has consistently remained “true blue”. Indeed, at the 2001 election, after Woodward had vacated the seat, a certain David Cameron won the seat for the Conservatives. Cameron would go on to lead the party, becoming prime minister at the 2010 general election. As prime minister, Cameron managed to win the Tories highest ever vote share in the constituency at the 2015 election, securing 60.2% of the vote. Following the result of the Brexit referendum, however, and Cameron’s departure from electoral politics, the Conservative party’s share of the vote fell drastically at the 2016 by-election. Although they restored their vote somewhat at the 2017 and 2019 elections, the 2016 by-election pointed to the possibility of Tory hegemony in Witney coming to an end, with the Liberal Democrats becoming a viable and credible opposition here. After all, this is a pro-Remain seat.
As of late, the Tories’ dominance in local elections has also become increasingly vulnerable. At the 2023 location election, Labour won council seats in Witney itself, and in the villages to the south and east, both the Liberal Democrats and Greens found success. Indeed, in the town of Witney, Labour has historically achieved results that stand out, winning in a part of the country that political commentators have wrongly written the Labour party off as realistic challengers. On the other hand, in Carterton, the second largest town in the seat, the Liberal Democrats have done particularly well. That being said, the Conservatives do remain competitive at local level, particularly in the more rural parts of the seat. The areas incorporated into the constituency from the Vale of White Horse, although historically Conservative, have of late also switched allegiance to the Liberal Democrats and Greens, with the Conservatives not winning a single seat in the 2023 Vale of White Horse local council elections. It should be noted that the Liberal Democrats do have a strong, historical base of support in the Vale, but in the past their successes have mostly been achieved in Abingdon and the areas on the outskirts of Oxford; rather, their success in the areas of the Vale that have been moved into the Witney seat are more recent. One could argue that local Conservative success, in both West Oxfordshire and the Vale, paralleled that of the Cameron (and coalition) government. However, following the premierships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, the tables have turned. In all parts of the constituency, the Conservatives natural rivals have achieved sustained successes at a local level, paving the way for Witney to perhaps become a politically more marginal seat in the future.
Turning now to a profile of the seat, starting north of the Thames, Witney is a pleasant and affluent market town, that markets itself, rather liberally, as a Cotswold town. Despite the liberties it takes with geography, Witney’s historical affluence does derive from the same source as the Cotwolds’s own wealth: wool. To the west of Witney is Carterton; far less pretty and affluent than its neighbour, Carterton is closely connected to the nearby RAF Brize Norton, having grown as a town alongside the air base. Unsurprisingly for an area that contains not one but two “Area(s) of Outstanding Beauty”, there is some attractive country side throughout the constituency, particular as you go west and north, where one meets the Cotswold hills. The town of Burford, that can rightly call itself a Cotswold town, is a popular tourist destination, lined with antique shops and tea rooms. As has already been made reference to, the river Thames runs through the centre of this constituency. Upstream of Oxford, this part of the river is particularly rural and quiet, meandering to the Thames's highest navigable point at Lechlade in the neighbouring county of Gloucestershire. Here, the former country home of the famous writer, designer and socialist William Morris stands close to the river: Kelmscott Manor. The fantastically-named Bampton-in-the-Bush, a largish village not too far from the Thames either, has also become a popular spot with visitors, as the setting for many of the exterior shots for the internationally-renowned TV series “Downton Abbey.” Bampton, too, is a good example of what most other villages in this area of the constituency are like, with its quiet and idyllic atmosphere, Cotswold stone, and middle Englandness. Despite looking like middle England, whilst generally to the right on economics, the seat is relatively socially liberal, particularly as you move east towards the city of Oxford. Indeed, the type of conservatism that Cameron represented is itself a good representative of the type of views commonly found in this constituency. One might argue that he was the “perfect fit” for the constituency. It is telling that following the Conservative’s shift to the right under Johnson and his predecessors, that the party, at a local level at least, has begun to flounder.
Moving south of the Thames, to “old Berkshire”, the principal settlement here is Faringdon, a historic market town. Faringdon is a middling kind of place, which is neither rich nor poor, but most people are relatively comfortable. The town has grown quite considerably over the last few years, as significant housing developments have been built on its peripheries, in parallel with wider developments in the Vale of White Horse. The architectural historian, Nikolaus Pevsner, described Faringdon’s seventeenth-century town hall as “smaller and more provincial” than the other town halls in the area, which perhaps fits with the town’s character more generally. That said, Faringdon does have its charms. Shrivenham is the area’s second largest settlement, and like Carterton to the north, has developed around the military bases that have been part of this large village's modern history. Most of the smaller villages here run parallel to the river Thames, atop what is locally known as the “Golden Ridge”, a geological elevation made of Corallian rock that slopes down to the river, running between Oxford and Swindon. These small villages are generally attractive places, possessing views over the upper Thames Valley, and are unspoilt by modern development. The quaint village of Buckland, for instance, is home to the magnificent Palladian-style Buckland House, which the aforementioned Pevsner described as “the most splendid Georgian house in the country”. In the far south west of the seat lie the rolling hills of the Berkshire Downs; along the Roman ridgeway that runs across the Downs is the impressive Wayland’s Smithy, an Early Neolithic chambered long barrow. Politically, this area of the Witney constituency shares similarities with the area to the north of the Thames, in that it is generally fiscally conservative but socially liberal. So, despite the large geographical reach of the new boundaries, the two areas are relatively harmonious in character – politically, economically, and socially.
Returning to politics, the Liberal Democrats have continued to strengthen their position in the seat as the Conservative’s rivals, and it is one of their “blue wall” targets, albeit further down the list than the neighboring Didcot and Wantage, for example. It will be interesting to see whether these new boundaries help or hinder the Liberals. Indeed, arguably, the current Conservative government does not match the more socially liberal-inclined politics that were successful here under Cameron. However, whether there can be a serious challenge to the Conservatives at a general election remains to be seen. In the past, voters who have moved to other parties at local elections have returned to the Tories at national level. For now it looks as if Witney will remain Conservative, but this is a seat that represents the general shift in England’s political landscape, one in which the voters of the home counties are slowly turning their back on their historical political allegiance.
As of the 2023 boundary review, the seat now covers an area straddling two historic countries, with Faringdon and the territory south of the Thames once part of the ancient county of Berkshire. Indeed, if the initial proposals had been implemented, the Uffington White Horse would have also been incorporated into the Witney constituency. Whilst the seat’s boundaries had changed relatively little since its creation in 1983 – the constituency coterminous with the local council district of West Oxfordshire until now – the 2023 review has altered them quite drastically. In the north of the seat, the Cotswold towns of Chipping Norton and Charlbury have been moved in to the Banbury constituency, where they previously found themselves before the creation of the Witney seat. More controversially, in the east, Woodstock – home to Blenheim Palace – and Eynsham have been absorbed into the new Bicester and Woodstock constituency, the latter large-village has particularly strong connections to the town of Witney. As previously mentioned, the boundary changes have also resulted in the incorporation of areas from south of Thames, from the Vale of White Horse, into the seat. Due to significant population increase in the Vale, retaining "old Berkshire" in a single seat is no longer viable, henceforth its northern and western fringes have been ceded to Witney; the rest of the old Wantage seat has formed its successor, “Didcot and Wantage”. Now, the Witney constituency stretches from the Cotswold hills in the north to the Berkshire Downs in the south, following much of the western border of the ceremonial county of Oxfordshire.
As mentioned in the opening paragraph, the political history of the seat has been one of safety; that is, safety for the Conservative party. The seat was originally won by Douglas Hurd in 1983, who had previously represented Mid Oxfordshire. Hurd went on to serve as Home and Foreign Secretary in the governments of Margaret Thatcher and John Major. At the 1983 election, the Tories won 57.5% percent of the vote in Witney, establishing it as a safe seat. During Labour’s 1997 landslide, Blair’s party did manage to win a respectable 30.6% of the vote, but Witney has consistently remained “true blue”. Indeed, at the 2001 election, after Woodward had vacated the seat, a certain David Cameron won the seat for the Conservatives. Cameron would go on to lead the party, becoming prime minister at the 2010 general election. As prime minister, Cameron managed to win the Tories highest ever vote share in the constituency at the 2015 election, securing 60.2% of the vote. Following the result of the Brexit referendum, however, and Cameron’s departure from electoral politics, the Conservative party’s share of the vote fell drastically at the 2016 by-election. Although they restored their vote somewhat at the 2017 and 2019 elections, the 2016 by-election pointed to the possibility of Tory hegemony in Witney coming to an end, with the Liberal Democrats becoming a viable and credible opposition here. After all, this is a pro-Remain seat.
As of late, the Tories’ dominance in local elections has also become increasingly vulnerable. At the 2023 location election, Labour won council seats in Witney itself, and in the villages to the south and east, both the Liberal Democrats and Greens found success. Indeed, in the town of Witney, Labour has historically achieved results that stand out, winning in a part of the country that political commentators have wrongly written the Labour party off as realistic challengers. On the other hand, in Carterton, the second largest town in the seat, the Liberal Democrats have done particularly well. That being said, the Conservatives do remain competitive at local level, particularly in the more rural parts of the seat. The areas incorporated into the constituency from the Vale of White Horse, although historically Conservative, have of late also switched allegiance to the Liberal Democrats and Greens, with the Conservatives not winning a single seat in the 2023 Vale of White Horse local council elections. It should be noted that the Liberal Democrats do have a strong, historical base of support in the Vale, but in the past their successes have mostly been achieved in Abingdon and the areas on the outskirts of Oxford; rather, their success in the areas of the Vale that have been moved into the Witney seat are more recent. One could argue that local Conservative success, in both West Oxfordshire and the Vale, paralleled that of the Cameron (and coalition) government. However, following the premierships of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, the tables have turned. In all parts of the constituency, the Conservatives natural rivals have achieved sustained successes at a local level, paving the way for Witney to perhaps become a politically more marginal seat in the future.
Turning now to a profile of the seat, starting north of the Thames, Witney is a pleasant and affluent market town, that markets itself, rather liberally, as a Cotswold town. Despite the liberties it takes with geography, Witney’s historical affluence does derive from the same source as the Cotwolds’s own wealth: wool. To the west of Witney is Carterton; far less pretty and affluent than its neighbour, Carterton is closely connected to the nearby RAF Brize Norton, having grown as a town alongside the air base. Unsurprisingly for an area that contains not one but two “Area(s) of Outstanding Beauty”, there is some attractive country side throughout the constituency, particular as you go west and north, where one meets the Cotswold hills. The town of Burford, that can rightly call itself a Cotswold town, is a popular tourist destination, lined with antique shops and tea rooms. As has already been made reference to, the river Thames runs through the centre of this constituency. Upstream of Oxford, this part of the river is particularly rural and quiet, meandering to the Thames's highest navigable point at Lechlade in the neighbouring county of Gloucestershire. Here, the former country home of the famous writer, designer and socialist William Morris stands close to the river: Kelmscott Manor. The fantastically-named Bampton-in-the-Bush, a largish village not too far from the Thames either, has also become a popular spot with visitors, as the setting for many of the exterior shots for the internationally-renowned TV series “Downton Abbey.” Bampton, too, is a good example of what most other villages in this area of the constituency are like, with its quiet and idyllic atmosphere, Cotswold stone, and middle Englandness. Despite looking like middle England, whilst generally to the right on economics, the seat is relatively socially liberal, particularly as you move east towards the city of Oxford. Indeed, the type of conservatism that Cameron represented is itself a good representative of the type of views commonly found in this constituency. One might argue that he was the “perfect fit” for the constituency. It is telling that following the Conservative’s shift to the right under Johnson and his predecessors, that the party, at a local level at least, has begun to flounder.
Moving south of the Thames, to “old Berkshire”, the principal settlement here is Faringdon, a historic market town. Faringdon is a middling kind of place, which is neither rich nor poor, but most people are relatively comfortable. The town has grown quite considerably over the last few years, as significant housing developments have been built on its peripheries, in parallel with wider developments in the Vale of White Horse. The architectural historian, Nikolaus Pevsner, described Faringdon’s seventeenth-century town hall as “smaller and more provincial” than the other town halls in the area, which perhaps fits with the town’s character more generally. That said, Faringdon does have its charms. Shrivenham is the area’s second largest settlement, and like Carterton to the north, has developed around the military bases that have been part of this large village's modern history. Most of the smaller villages here run parallel to the river Thames, atop what is locally known as the “Golden Ridge”, a geological elevation made of Corallian rock that slopes down to the river, running between Oxford and Swindon. These small villages are generally attractive places, possessing views over the upper Thames Valley, and are unspoilt by modern development. The quaint village of Buckland, for instance, is home to the magnificent Palladian-style Buckland House, which the aforementioned Pevsner described as “the most splendid Georgian house in the country”. In the far south west of the seat lie the rolling hills of the Berkshire Downs; along the Roman ridgeway that runs across the Downs is the impressive Wayland’s Smithy, an Early Neolithic chambered long barrow. Politically, this area of the Witney constituency shares similarities with the area to the north of the Thames, in that it is generally fiscally conservative but socially liberal. So, despite the large geographical reach of the new boundaries, the two areas are relatively harmonious in character – politically, economically, and socially.
Returning to politics, the Liberal Democrats have continued to strengthen their position in the seat as the Conservative’s rivals, and it is one of their “blue wall” targets, albeit further down the list than the neighboring Didcot and Wantage, for example. It will be interesting to see whether these new boundaries help or hinder the Liberals. Indeed, arguably, the current Conservative government does not match the more socially liberal-inclined politics that were successful here under Cameron. However, whether there can be a serious challenge to the Conservatives at a general election remains to be seen. In the past, voters who have moved to other parties at local elections have returned to the Tories at national level. For now it looks as if Witney will remain Conservative, but this is a seat that represents the general shift in England’s political landscape, one in which the voters of the home counties are slowly turning their back on their historical political allegiance.
