Post by Robert Waller on Aug 21, 2023 20:15:25 GMT
Of all the eight constituencies in Kent that Labour won in the two Blair landslides of 1997 and 2001, and lost back to the Tories in 2005 (Gravesham) and 2010 (all the rest), Sittingbourne and Sheppey had the largest Conservative majority in December 2019. It is not quite the safest of this type of seat anywhere – Castle Point, Braintree and arguably Clacton as the successor to Harwich, all in Essex, now have even larger percentage leads. Nevertheless, with a numerical majority for Gordon Henderson of 24,479 and a required swing of 23.82% on present boundaries, it is hard to believe that Sittingbourne & Sheppey was a marginal so recently.
The reasons for its transformation bear analysis. Firstly, over 65% of voters here opted for Brexit in 2016, and we know that this was the single most important issue in determining voting patterns in the 2019 general election – and indeed very significant in 2015 too, when UKIP finished second with a share of nearly 25%. This seat is pretty much next door to Rochester and Strood, another Kent coastal constituency, which briefly became the second UKIP held seat in the byelection of November 2014.
However, attitudes towards Europe are themselves correlated with characteristics that have swung dramatically away from the Labour party. Sittingbourne and Sheppey is in the lowest decile for proportion of voters employed in professional occupations. Similarly, it also has very few with university degrees and relatively few full time students. Overall, even in the 2021 census figures it still has more in routine and semi routine jobs than professional or managerial, and it still has more adult residents with no academic qualifications than with degrees - which by 2021 was true of only a few dozen seats in England and Wales. Despite an increase in ethnic minorities, especially in the small but growing Black population concentrated in inner east Sittingbourne near the Eurolink Way business park and in parts of Milton Regis such as Bismuth Drive, it is still 93% white. None of these indicators is good news for the modern version of Labour. That it is not really a matter of being in Kent is shown by the migration in the 2010s in an opposite political direction of Canterbury, which has a small boundary with Sittingbourne and Sheppey (though admittedly it consists of The Oaze, which is an uninhabited tidal wetland).
Sittingbourne and Sheppey is situated between the Medway towns and the coast around Whitstable (in the Canterbury seat) and, beyond that, Thanet. It consists of the majority of Swale borough, and it could be argued that Swale might be a better – and certainly shorter – name for this constituency. The Swale is the channel that separates the Isle of Sheppey from the rest of Kent, such as Sittingbourne. On the other hand not many outside the locality have probably heard of it, and also this seat does not include the whole of Swale Borough. For example it excludes the significant town of Faversham, which gave its name to what was in effect the predecessor to Sittingbourne and Sheppey. Labour held Faversham throughout the period 1945 to 1970, which further indicates how far this area has moved rightwards as the 21st century has worn on.
On balance Sittingbourne & Sheppey is a fair description of the key constituency elements of the seat. The whole division is diverse in character. Sittingbourne, sited on the A2 trunk road and the HS1 rail line, has a population of around 54,000 in 2021, and is clearly the largest element in the constituency. It is usually mainly Conservative, at least in general elections, but it does have several wards that Labour can win in local government elections in favourable years, such as Milton Regis (north of Sittingbourne centre), Roman (north east), Chalkwell (central) and Homewood (south). Once known for brickmaking, barge-building and paper mills, the economy is now oriented on much more modern lines, using its strategic location as a basis for the business park and Kent Science Park (agri-tech, biotech, biopharma) as well as having a notably high level of employment in construction. The atmosphere in Sittingbourne is one of growth and redevelopment.
The Isle of Sheppey, by contrast, is not on the way to anywhere. It has around 30,000 voters in all. It is no holiday paradise. Despite the presence of the odd Leysdown-on-Sea on its east coast with its caravan and chalet parks and amusement arcades, much of Sheppey consists of rather eerie and Kentish-Dickensian marshland, and low-lying fields cut by ‘fleets’ and creeks; these have created an isle within the isle, the Isle of Harty. The impression that Magwitch might turn up here is reinforced by the presence of no fewer than there prisons at Eastchurch in the heart of the island of Sheppey. Sheppey also has industrial and working-class districts which have traditionally given Labour strong support in council elections, particularly in the gritty (and declining) port and dockyard of Sheerness. Sheerness West was the only MSOA in the whole seat with a substantial proportion of social rented housing in the 2021 census (37%), focused in the inter war council estate of Mile Town. Sheerness East MSOA had 50.4% private rented, such as in the terraces of Marine Town.
There is still quite a variety at municipal level: in the borough elections in May 2023, Labour gained six councillors net to become the largest single party, as the Conservatives lost four. However the council remained thoroughly ‘hung’, with the Swale Independents also gaining, in their case two seats, as well as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens each being up one. There was also a complex pattern of changes of hand. In general Labour further strengthened their dominance in the Sittingbourne built up area, gaining the second seat in Milton Regis to add to their holds in Homewood, Roman and Chalkwell wards, and also advancing just north of the town in Kemsley. On Sheppey, Labour did well in the town wards and topping the poll with a gain in Queenborough, but the Tories did best in the rural parts of the island, including gains from the Independents and Reform UK in Sheppey East which is deep Brexit country. In fact that Reform UK defeat marks the end of a strong local tradition which included the election of nine UKIP councillors to Swale council in May 2015. In 2023 the Greens held Boughton & Courtenay and made a gain in East Downs. And the Liberal Democrats held their ground in the ecclesiastical sounding Abbey and Priory wards and held Watling, but almost all these examples of local LD and Green strength are either in or being transferred to the Faversham & Mid Kent constituency.
Perhaps a better representation of party politics, although longer ago, is offered by the May 2021 Kent county council elections. The Tories won both the Sittingbourne electoral divisions, North and South, and Sheppey. In Swale East, 50% of which is in this parliamentary seat (and half in Faversham & Mid Kent), the Greens pulled off a convincing gain. Swale West, containing the inland villages between Sittingbourne and Gillingham, an Independent prevailed. That said, the Tories must have been ahead in all major parts of the constituency in the most recent parliamentary contest.
With an electorate of 83,917 at the time of that 2019 general election, Sittingbourne and Sheppey is somewhat oversized, so the Boundary Commission has recommended transferring some eastern territory such as the wards of West Downs and Teynham & Lynsted (between Sittingbourne and Faversham town) to the Faversham & Mid Kent constituency. This will probably slightly reduce the Conservative notional majority in Sittingbourne & Sheppey; but they have plenty to spare. This is definitely not a seat Labour needs to regain to form a government. A full set of notional calculations for 2019 on the new boundaries is not yet available, but the situation will not be materially different here. On its present boundaries it is the 22nd safest Conservative seat, and no one imagines even the present governing party being reduced to a score or so or less of MPs. Indeed, among their 22 statistically most vulnerable seats to Labour are places that they never lost even during the heights of Tony Blair’s success, such as Chingford & Woodford Green and Chipping Barnet, as well as places like Blyth Valley, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Burnley that were completely safe even in the long decades of Old Labour before 1997. Such is the fascinating and changing kaleidoscope of British electoral geography.
2021 Census, new boundaries, credit bjornhattan for all of these
Age 65+ 18.1% 335/575
Owner occupied 67.7% 240/575
Private rented 19.5% 233/575
Social rented 12.8% 390/575
White 93.1% 237/575
Black 2.7% 192/575
Asian 1.7% 425/575
Managerial & professional 26.4% 468/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.3% 123/575
Degree level 21.0% 559/575
No qualifications 23.1% 80/575
Students 4.7% 447/575
General Election 2019: Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gordon Henderson 34,742 67.6 +7.4
Labour Clive Johnson 10,263 20.0 –10.6
Liberal Democrats Ben J Martin 3,213 6.3 +3.6
Independent Monique Bonney 1,257 2.4 New
Green Sam Collins 1,188 2.3 +1.2
Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 404 0.8 0.0
Independent Lee McCall 327 0.6 0.0
C Majority 24,479 47.6 +18.0
2019 electorate 83,917
Turnout 51,394 61.2 –1.5
Conservative hold Swing +9.0
Boundary Changes
The new Sittingbourne & Sheppey constituency will consist of
91.6% of Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_358_Sittingbourne%20and%20Sheppey_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The reasons for its transformation bear analysis. Firstly, over 65% of voters here opted for Brexit in 2016, and we know that this was the single most important issue in determining voting patterns in the 2019 general election – and indeed very significant in 2015 too, when UKIP finished second with a share of nearly 25%. This seat is pretty much next door to Rochester and Strood, another Kent coastal constituency, which briefly became the second UKIP held seat in the byelection of November 2014.
However, attitudes towards Europe are themselves correlated with characteristics that have swung dramatically away from the Labour party. Sittingbourne and Sheppey is in the lowest decile for proportion of voters employed in professional occupations. Similarly, it also has very few with university degrees and relatively few full time students. Overall, even in the 2021 census figures it still has more in routine and semi routine jobs than professional or managerial, and it still has more adult residents with no academic qualifications than with degrees - which by 2021 was true of only a few dozen seats in England and Wales. Despite an increase in ethnic minorities, especially in the small but growing Black population concentrated in inner east Sittingbourne near the Eurolink Way business park and in parts of Milton Regis such as Bismuth Drive, it is still 93% white. None of these indicators is good news for the modern version of Labour. That it is not really a matter of being in Kent is shown by the migration in the 2010s in an opposite political direction of Canterbury, which has a small boundary with Sittingbourne and Sheppey (though admittedly it consists of The Oaze, which is an uninhabited tidal wetland).
Sittingbourne and Sheppey is situated between the Medway towns and the coast around Whitstable (in the Canterbury seat) and, beyond that, Thanet. It consists of the majority of Swale borough, and it could be argued that Swale might be a better – and certainly shorter – name for this constituency. The Swale is the channel that separates the Isle of Sheppey from the rest of Kent, such as Sittingbourne. On the other hand not many outside the locality have probably heard of it, and also this seat does not include the whole of Swale Borough. For example it excludes the significant town of Faversham, which gave its name to what was in effect the predecessor to Sittingbourne and Sheppey. Labour held Faversham throughout the period 1945 to 1970, which further indicates how far this area has moved rightwards as the 21st century has worn on.
On balance Sittingbourne & Sheppey is a fair description of the key constituency elements of the seat. The whole division is diverse in character. Sittingbourne, sited on the A2 trunk road and the HS1 rail line, has a population of around 54,000 in 2021, and is clearly the largest element in the constituency. It is usually mainly Conservative, at least in general elections, but it does have several wards that Labour can win in local government elections in favourable years, such as Milton Regis (north of Sittingbourne centre), Roman (north east), Chalkwell (central) and Homewood (south). Once known for brickmaking, barge-building and paper mills, the economy is now oriented on much more modern lines, using its strategic location as a basis for the business park and Kent Science Park (agri-tech, biotech, biopharma) as well as having a notably high level of employment in construction. The atmosphere in Sittingbourne is one of growth and redevelopment.
The Isle of Sheppey, by contrast, is not on the way to anywhere. It has around 30,000 voters in all. It is no holiday paradise. Despite the presence of the odd Leysdown-on-Sea on its east coast with its caravan and chalet parks and amusement arcades, much of Sheppey consists of rather eerie and Kentish-Dickensian marshland, and low-lying fields cut by ‘fleets’ and creeks; these have created an isle within the isle, the Isle of Harty. The impression that Magwitch might turn up here is reinforced by the presence of no fewer than there prisons at Eastchurch in the heart of the island of Sheppey. Sheppey also has industrial and working-class districts which have traditionally given Labour strong support in council elections, particularly in the gritty (and declining) port and dockyard of Sheerness. Sheerness West was the only MSOA in the whole seat with a substantial proportion of social rented housing in the 2021 census (37%), focused in the inter war council estate of Mile Town. Sheerness East MSOA had 50.4% private rented, such as in the terraces of Marine Town.
There is still quite a variety at municipal level: in the borough elections in May 2023, Labour gained six councillors net to become the largest single party, as the Conservatives lost four. However the council remained thoroughly ‘hung’, with the Swale Independents also gaining, in their case two seats, as well as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens each being up one. There was also a complex pattern of changes of hand. In general Labour further strengthened their dominance in the Sittingbourne built up area, gaining the second seat in Milton Regis to add to their holds in Homewood, Roman and Chalkwell wards, and also advancing just north of the town in Kemsley. On Sheppey, Labour did well in the town wards and topping the poll with a gain in Queenborough, but the Tories did best in the rural parts of the island, including gains from the Independents and Reform UK in Sheppey East which is deep Brexit country. In fact that Reform UK defeat marks the end of a strong local tradition which included the election of nine UKIP councillors to Swale council in May 2015. In 2023 the Greens held Boughton & Courtenay and made a gain in East Downs. And the Liberal Democrats held their ground in the ecclesiastical sounding Abbey and Priory wards and held Watling, but almost all these examples of local LD and Green strength are either in or being transferred to the Faversham & Mid Kent constituency.
Perhaps a better representation of party politics, although longer ago, is offered by the May 2021 Kent county council elections. The Tories won both the Sittingbourne electoral divisions, North and South, and Sheppey. In Swale East, 50% of which is in this parliamentary seat (and half in Faversham & Mid Kent), the Greens pulled off a convincing gain. Swale West, containing the inland villages between Sittingbourne and Gillingham, an Independent prevailed. That said, the Tories must have been ahead in all major parts of the constituency in the most recent parliamentary contest.
With an electorate of 83,917 at the time of that 2019 general election, Sittingbourne and Sheppey is somewhat oversized, so the Boundary Commission has recommended transferring some eastern territory such as the wards of West Downs and Teynham & Lynsted (between Sittingbourne and Faversham town) to the Faversham & Mid Kent constituency. This will probably slightly reduce the Conservative notional majority in Sittingbourne & Sheppey; but they have plenty to spare. This is definitely not a seat Labour needs to regain to form a government. A full set of notional calculations for 2019 on the new boundaries is not yet available, but the situation will not be materially different here. On its present boundaries it is the 22nd safest Conservative seat, and no one imagines even the present governing party being reduced to a score or so or less of MPs. Indeed, among their 22 statistically most vulnerable seats to Labour are places that they never lost even during the heights of Tony Blair’s success, such as Chingford & Woodford Green and Chipping Barnet, as well as places like Blyth Valley, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Burnley that were completely safe even in the long decades of Old Labour before 1997. Such is the fascinating and changing kaleidoscope of British electoral geography.
2021 Census, new boundaries, credit bjornhattan for all of these
Age 65+ 18.1% 335/575
Owner occupied 67.7% 240/575
Private rented 19.5% 233/575
Social rented 12.8% 390/575
White 93.1% 237/575
Black 2.7% 192/575
Asian 1.7% 425/575
Managerial & professional 26.4% 468/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.3% 123/575
Degree level 21.0% 559/575
No qualifications 23.1% 80/575
Students 4.7% 447/575
General Election 2019: Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gordon Henderson 34,742 67.6 +7.4
Labour Clive Johnson 10,263 20.0 –10.6
Liberal Democrats Ben J Martin 3,213 6.3 +3.6
Independent Monique Bonney 1,257 2.4 New
Green Sam Collins 1,188 2.3 +1.2
Monster Raving Loony Mad Mike Young 404 0.8 0.0
Independent Lee McCall 327 0.6 0.0
C Majority 24,479 47.6 +18.0
2019 electorate 83,917
Turnout 51,394 61.2 –1.5
Conservative hold Swing +9.0
Boundary Changes
The new Sittingbourne & Sheppey constituency will consist of
91.6% of Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_358_Sittingbourne%20and%20Sheppey_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 31106 | 66.5% |
| Lab | 9769 | 20.9% |
| LD | 2962 | 6.3% |
| Green | 1043 | 2.2% |
| Oths | 1883 | 4.0% |
| | ||
| Majority | 21337 | 45.6% |