Post by Robert Waller on Aug 21, 2023 17:12:09 GMT
Overall, the current constituency of Stockton South is one of those seats that would make appropriate material for a focused documentary as a microcosm of English politics. It contains a wide range of types of residential area, housing ages, occupations and inhabitants. With an electorate of 76,895 in December 2019 it was within the margins allowed by the quota used by the 2023 Boundary Commission, but as other seats adjacent were not, significant changes have been proposed in its final report. The 'inner city' element of Stockton is reduced, as the Parkfield & Oxbridge (former) ward is switched to Stockton North. As the Middlesbrough division was undersized, two of the three Thornaby wards are added: Mandale & Victoria and Stainsby Hill, and the seat renamed (in the revised proposals) Middlesbrough and Thornaby East. This accounts for a loss of about 12,000 voters. In return, the bulk of Stockton South will be joined by two rural (and Tory) wards from Darlington borough and Sedgefield constituency, Hurworth and Sadberge & Middleton St George (8,000 between them). Also added will be the Western Parishes ward from Stockton North, a large sliver of land containing villages from Stillington in the north to Longnewton in the south, but only accounting for fewer than 3,000, mainly Conservative, electors. This extra rural terrain has helped to persuade the Commission to rename the constituency as Stockton West.
Stockton South is probably the best example in the whole North East England region of a marginal seat that swings with the prevailing electoral wind. That is what occurred in this constituency, working backwards in time, in 2019, 2017, 2010 and 1997. In addition, it also changed hands in 1987, having been one of the very few seats held by defectors to the newly formed SDP in its very first contest in 1983 (the sitting MP being Ian Wrigglesworth). The fact that it deviated from the pattern of also reflecting the winner of the general election as a whole in 2017 and 1983, in both cases not opting for the Conservatives, may suggest that overall Stockton South is slightly less Tory than the national average. This is reinforced by the December 2019 result when the Conservatives won by a margin of 9.6% compared with a national lead of 11.6%.
On the other hand, if one looks at the Census statistics for Stockton South it looks as if it should be slightly more Conservative than the norm, not less. Owner occupied housing is generally a counter-indicator to voting Labour, but the present seat’s proportion of 72.5% in 2021 places it just in the top 100 of all constituencies for that sector. It has more professional and managerial workers than average, and fewer in routine and semi-routine occupations. On educational achievement, more people have university degrees and fewer with no qualifications. The seat has more white residents than the national average, though not compared with the rest of the North Eastern region. Indeed, it is probably the regional factor that means Stockton South is not more Conservative than it is: there have been a number of seats, such as Tynemouth, in England’s far north that have been more favourable to Labour than their characteristics might indicate, at least until 2019, as the Conservatives have been tarred with the image of being a predominantly southern party.
This Stockton South constituency is far from being entirely composed of parts of the town of Stockton on Tees itself. Rather it is a true ‘Teesside’ division. North of the river it does not cover the town centre, which is in Stockton North, but does include Stockton’s western neigbourhoods, in the wards of Parkfield & Oxbridge (inner, and certainly not living up to the part of the name redolent of elite universities) then progressively moving further out, Grangefield, Fairfield, Hartburn and Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree. These are mixed in their political preferences as befits the marginal nature of the constituency as a whole. Hartburn is a solidly middle class ward, 90% owner occupied and Conservative by over two to one in the most recent council elections in May 2023 (and indeed in a byelection there on 23 June 2023). Parkfield & Oxbridge was even more skewed, though to the Labour side, but its turnout levels tend to be low, and it disappeared under that name in the re-warding before the all out 2023 contests. Its housing tenure is fairly evenly divided between the three main sectors: social rented, private rented and owned, and this is where Stockton South’s Asian minority population is concentrated. None of the other three wards in this ‘Stockton’ section is easy to pigeonhole though within its overall contests. Grangefield was reduced in size to a one member ward, having split its representation between Labour and Tory in 2019 – Labour won in 2023. Fairfield was gained by the Tories from Independents. Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree had favoured Liberal Democrats but was also gained by the Conservatives in 2023. All these wards are strongly owner occupied, getting increasingly modern as one moves outwards – Grangefield inter-war, Fairfield post-war, Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree with plenty built in the 21st century.
However the other half of the present South seat is definitely not Stockton. Across the river from the town centre is Thornaby on Tees, the whole of which is currently in this constituency. Its inner section is Mandale & Victoria ward, then moving further south we find Village and Stainsby Hill wards (yes, Stainsby as in the Chris Rea song). Labour probably leads in Thornaby when the party is having a good year, but again not in local elections; in its case because the Thornaby Residents association swept the three wards in May 2019 and have usually elected a majority of the Thornaby councillors throughout this century; before that, in 1995 and 1999 Labour won all three wards, but that was during the period when the appeal of Tony Blair’s transformed party was at its freshest. In May 2023 Labour regained Mandale & Victoria, which may be a harbinger that Keir Starmer can repeat Tony Blair’s success; but not the strongest omen, as the localists held the other two Thornaby wards – and in any case Mandale & Victoria is one of the wards to be shifted to join Middlesbrough in the split of Thornaby before the next election.
Finally, two more sections offer the greatest sources of Conservative strength in Stockton South. Still on the Thornaby side of the Tees, there are the two wards of Ingleby Barwick, in effect a private ‘new town’ developed since the 1970s but still expanding in the 2010s. It now has a population of over 20,000. It is between 85% and 90% owner occupied, with over 40% in professional/managerial occupations. Although here too Independent residents do well in municipal contests, but unlike in Thornaby the Conservatives are dominant among the main political parties, and indeed they gained the three council seats in Ingleby Barwick North in May 2023.
For the final element, we have two more communities, Eaglescliffe on the north side of the Tees and Yarm on the south. Eaglescliffe is the name of the ward, the railway station within it, the golf club, and various other uses, but the parish, school, and community centre (etc) are spelt Egglescliffe; I have stayed here but never got to the bottom of this. There is no confusion about the politics: Conservative, taking all four councillors in two new Eaglescliffe wards in 2023. Yarm is a fine small market town, historically in Yorkshire, which also elected a complete slate of Conservatives in the most recent local contests.
In fact, although the picture was somewhat clouded by the new ward boundaries, the Tories increased their representation on Stockton-on-Tees borough council by nine in 2023 compared with 2019. Labour went down two, LDs down one, and Residents and Independents down no fewer than eight. It should be said, though, that just as Tory disasters elsewhere do not presage a wipe out when national rather than local government is at stake, these local results do not mean that they are safe in parliamentary terms in the new Stockton West; far from it.
Overall, though, the boundary changes will definitely help the Conservatives in their defence of the seat, and may even go so far as notionally to more than double their 5,260 majority. The effect on the demographic variables, for example, is clear: the new Stockton West is over 200 seats further up the table for residents aged 65+ than Stockton South was. It moves up the rankings for owner occupation in England and Wales from number 106 to no.4, and on social rented housing from outside the top hundred to inside the top five. It is over 100 spots higher in the list for professional and managerial occupations and more than 100 lower for routine/semi routine jobs. However such is the scale of the task facing Labour if they are to form a government that Stockton West will still have to be regarded as a key target marginal and one of the crucial swing seats in the North East, and thus still suitable for a seat documentary to be made. They would no longer be able to use Stainsby Girls as the theme music, though.
2021 Census, Stockton West, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.1% 202/575
Owner occupied 80.8% 4/575
Private rented 12.6% 543/575
Social rented 6.5% 571/575
White 93.3% 231/575
Black 0.6% 419/575
Asian 4.0% 299/575
Managerial & professional 39.0% 132/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0% 418/575
Degree level 36.8% 173/573
No qualifications 13.4% 490/573
Students 5.8% 259/575
General Election 2019: Stockton South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Matt Vickers 27,764 50.7 +3.9
Labour Paul Williams 22,504 41.1 -7.4
Liberal Democrats Brendan Devlin 2,338 4.3 +2.5
Brexit Party John Prescott 2,196 4.0 New
C Majority 5,260 9.6
2019 electorate 76,895
Turnout 54,802 71.3 +0.1
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 5.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Stockton West constituency will consist of
76.9% of Stockton South
12.5% of Sedgefield
4.3% of Stockton North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_207_Stockton%20West_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Stockton South is probably the best example in the whole North East England region of a marginal seat that swings with the prevailing electoral wind. That is what occurred in this constituency, working backwards in time, in 2019, 2017, 2010 and 1997. In addition, it also changed hands in 1987, having been one of the very few seats held by defectors to the newly formed SDP in its very first contest in 1983 (the sitting MP being Ian Wrigglesworth). The fact that it deviated from the pattern of also reflecting the winner of the general election as a whole in 2017 and 1983, in both cases not opting for the Conservatives, may suggest that overall Stockton South is slightly less Tory than the national average. This is reinforced by the December 2019 result when the Conservatives won by a margin of 9.6% compared with a national lead of 11.6%.
On the other hand, if one looks at the Census statistics for Stockton South it looks as if it should be slightly more Conservative than the norm, not less. Owner occupied housing is generally a counter-indicator to voting Labour, but the present seat’s proportion of 72.5% in 2021 places it just in the top 100 of all constituencies for that sector. It has more professional and managerial workers than average, and fewer in routine and semi-routine occupations. On educational achievement, more people have university degrees and fewer with no qualifications. The seat has more white residents than the national average, though not compared with the rest of the North Eastern region. Indeed, it is probably the regional factor that means Stockton South is not more Conservative than it is: there have been a number of seats, such as Tynemouth, in England’s far north that have been more favourable to Labour than their characteristics might indicate, at least until 2019, as the Conservatives have been tarred with the image of being a predominantly southern party.
This Stockton South constituency is far from being entirely composed of parts of the town of Stockton on Tees itself. Rather it is a true ‘Teesside’ division. North of the river it does not cover the town centre, which is in Stockton North, but does include Stockton’s western neigbourhoods, in the wards of Parkfield & Oxbridge (inner, and certainly not living up to the part of the name redolent of elite universities) then progressively moving further out, Grangefield, Fairfield, Hartburn and Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree. These are mixed in their political preferences as befits the marginal nature of the constituency as a whole. Hartburn is a solidly middle class ward, 90% owner occupied and Conservative by over two to one in the most recent council elections in May 2023 (and indeed in a byelection there on 23 June 2023). Parkfield & Oxbridge was even more skewed, though to the Labour side, but its turnout levels tend to be low, and it disappeared under that name in the re-warding before the all out 2023 contests. Its housing tenure is fairly evenly divided between the three main sectors: social rented, private rented and owned, and this is where Stockton South’s Asian minority population is concentrated. None of the other three wards in this ‘Stockton’ section is easy to pigeonhole though within its overall contests. Grangefield was reduced in size to a one member ward, having split its representation between Labour and Tory in 2019 – Labour won in 2023. Fairfield was gained by the Tories from Independents. Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree had favoured Liberal Democrats but was also gained by the Conservatives in 2023. All these wards are strongly owner occupied, getting increasingly modern as one moves outwards – Grangefield inter-war, Fairfield post-war, Bishopsgarth & Elm Tree with plenty built in the 21st century.
However the other half of the present South seat is definitely not Stockton. Across the river from the town centre is Thornaby on Tees, the whole of which is currently in this constituency. Its inner section is Mandale & Victoria ward, then moving further south we find Village and Stainsby Hill wards (yes, Stainsby as in the Chris Rea song). Labour probably leads in Thornaby when the party is having a good year, but again not in local elections; in its case because the Thornaby Residents association swept the three wards in May 2019 and have usually elected a majority of the Thornaby councillors throughout this century; before that, in 1995 and 1999 Labour won all three wards, but that was during the period when the appeal of Tony Blair’s transformed party was at its freshest. In May 2023 Labour regained Mandale & Victoria, which may be a harbinger that Keir Starmer can repeat Tony Blair’s success; but not the strongest omen, as the localists held the other two Thornaby wards – and in any case Mandale & Victoria is one of the wards to be shifted to join Middlesbrough in the split of Thornaby before the next election.
Finally, two more sections offer the greatest sources of Conservative strength in Stockton South. Still on the Thornaby side of the Tees, there are the two wards of Ingleby Barwick, in effect a private ‘new town’ developed since the 1970s but still expanding in the 2010s. It now has a population of over 20,000. It is between 85% and 90% owner occupied, with over 40% in professional/managerial occupations. Although here too Independent residents do well in municipal contests, but unlike in Thornaby the Conservatives are dominant among the main political parties, and indeed they gained the three council seats in Ingleby Barwick North in May 2023.
For the final element, we have two more communities, Eaglescliffe on the north side of the Tees and Yarm on the south. Eaglescliffe is the name of the ward, the railway station within it, the golf club, and various other uses, but the parish, school, and community centre (etc) are spelt Egglescliffe; I have stayed here but never got to the bottom of this. There is no confusion about the politics: Conservative, taking all four councillors in two new Eaglescliffe wards in 2023. Yarm is a fine small market town, historically in Yorkshire, which also elected a complete slate of Conservatives in the most recent local contests.
In fact, although the picture was somewhat clouded by the new ward boundaries, the Tories increased their representation on Stockton-on-Tees borough council by nine in 2023 compared with 2019. Labour went down two, LDs down one, and Residents and Independents down no fewer than eight. It should be said, though, that just as Tory disasters elsewhere do not presage a wipe out when national rather than local government is at stake, these local results do not mean that they are safe in parliamentary terms in the new Stockton West; far from it.
Overall, though, the boundary changes will definitely help the Conservatives in their defence of the seat, and may even go so far as notionally to more than double their 5,260 majority. The effect on the demographic variables, for example, is clear: the new Stockton West is over 200 seats further up the table for residents aged 65+ than Stockton South was. It moves up the rankings for owner occupation in England and Wales from number 106 to no.4, and on social rented housing from outside the top hundred to inside the top five. It is over 100 spots higher in the list for professional and managerial occupations and more than 100 lower for routine/semi routine jobs. However such is the scale of the task facing Labour if they are to form a government that Stockton West will still have to be regarded as a key target marginal and one of the crucial swing seats in the North East, and thus still suitable for a seat documentary to be made. They would no longer be able to use Stainsby Girls as the theme music, though.
2021 Census, Stockton West, new boundaries
Age 65+ 21.1% 202/575
Owner occupied 80.8% 4/575
Private rented 12.6% 543/575
Social rented 6.5% 571/575
White 93.3% 231/575
Black 0.6% 419/575
Asian 4.0% 299/575
Managerial & professional 39.0% 132/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0% 418/575
Degree level 36.8% 173/573
No qualifications 13.4% 490/573
Students 5.8% 259/575
General Election 2019: Stockton South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Matt Vickers 27,764 50.7 +3.9
Labour Paul Williams 22,504 41.1 -7.4
Liberal Democrats Brendan Devlin 2,338 4.3 +2.5
Brexit Party John Prescott 2,196 4.0 New
C Majority 5,260 9.6
2019 electorate 76,895
Turnout 54,802 71.3 +0.1
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 5.6 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Stockton West constituency will consist of
76.9% of Stockton South
12.5% of Sedgefield
4.3% of Stockton North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_207_Stockton%20West_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 29397 | 56.5% |
| Lab | 17648 | 33.9% |
| Brexit | 2316 | 4.7% |
| LD | 1888 | 4.5% |
| Green | 262 | 0.5% |
| | ||
| Majority | 11749 | 22.6% |
