Post by Robert Waller on Aug 21, 2023 13:11:45 GMT
There are, in a way, two Rother Valley constituencies in England. The one actually named as such, located in South Yorkshire, made news in the 2019 general election as part of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ of traditional Labour working class seats in the North and Midlands that fell to the appeal of Boris Johnson and his ‘get Brexit done’ slogan. In East Sussex, though, there is a constituency very different in nature that is largely coterminous with the local government district of Rother, itself named after a different river of that name from the one in Yorkshire. If the northern seat had not taken precedence (it has held the name since 1918), this one could well have been called Rother Valley. In fact, since its creation in 1983, it has been Bexhill and Battle.
This was essentially the former Rye county division minus the Cinque Port towns of Rye and Winchelsea, which are now in the marginal Hastings and Rye. Bexhill and Battle consists of a coastal strip between Hastings and Eastbourne, together with the fertile and wooded countryside behind. This is the area most associated with the Norman conquest of England of 1066, for William I landed at Pevensey and defeated the army of the Anglo-Saxon regime at Battle, the heart of the inland part of the seat. Despite this distant history of conflict, the seat has always reflected the peaceful image of Bexhill (its most notable landmark, the 1930s art deco De La Warr Pavilion, has two ‘r’s in Warr!) rather the competitive and indeed martial implications of Battle.
The reasons for this are not hard to fathom. Its residents are white – or at least over 95% of them were at the time of the last published Census (2021). Fewer than one in ten live in housing’s social rented sector. Significant sources of employment are tourism and agriculture. Above all, this is the seat in the country with the fourth highest proportion of pensioners. Around forty per cent of the electorate are of pensionable age, which may well mean that nearly half of all votes in the Bexhill and Battle constituency in 2019 were cast by the elderly, who have a strikingly better turnout rate than younger groups. In parts of Bexhill itself the figures are even more dramatic: well over half of adults in the Kewhurst and Collington MSOAs were over 65 in 2021. The support of ‘grey voters’ cannot be taken for granted, but the stability of the results here suggests long-term Conservative dominance. The Tory majority in Bexhill & Battle has never dipped out of five figures, and in four out of the ten general elections has been over 20,000 and the highest ever, 26,059 was in the most recent, in 2019. Labour were in second place then, as they had been in 2017; the other runners-up have been a motley crew: UKIP in 2015, Liberal Democrats between 1992 and 2010, SDP in 1987, Liberal in 1983 – and none of those in second place has ever done better than 28.9% (LD, 1992).
The picture in local elections on Rother district council has been somewhat different, for since 2019 the ‘Rother Alliance’ of Independents, Liberal Democrats, Labour and Green councillors have a majority between them and formally have control. This was confirmed in May 2023 when the Tories suffered five net losses. Labour were the chief gainers increasing from three councillors in 2019 to eight. For example, they Labour for example topped the poll again in Bexhill Central and in the inland ‘social housing’ ward of Sidley, and gained one in Bexhill Pebsham & St Michael’s, one in Bexhill Old Town & Worsham, and both seats in the Rye & Winchelsea ward (not in Bexhill & Battle constituency). The Greens held their previous seat Bexhill Old Town and Worsham and made one gain in each of Bexhill St Stephen’s and North Battle, Netherfield & Wallington. Independents won everywhere else in Bexhill. The Liberal Democrats maintained their position in both Battle wards and Robertsbridge (of Gray-Nicolls cricket bat manufacture renown) and gained in Catsfield & Crowhurst and Hurst Green & Ticehurst. One of the few Conervative victories came in Burwash, where the great imperial figure Rudyard Kipling made his home for the less dramatic half of his life, at Bateman’s. The Conservative woes in May 2023 spread to the minority of Wealden council in this seat under the current boundaries, losing both Heathfield wards and Pevensey Bay to Independents and Herstmonceaux & Pevensey Levels to the Liberal Democrats. Over all of this territory so associated with the Norman Conquest if 1066, the established government of the land has recently been suffering reverses.
The final report of the Boundary Commission suggests reducing the seat's electorate to within the 5% quota by removing the Heathfield wards. A chunk of Hastings & Rye in the Brede valley around Udimore and Cackle Street is brought in. Overall the seat becomes, slightly, even more elderly, but the electoral impact is neutral. As the new territory is under the Rother council, and as Heathfield is in Wealden, Bexhill & Battle will therefore become even more similar to the Rother district.
Both constituencies based on river Rothers swung to the Conservatives in December 2019, the one in Yorkshire more notably of course, as it had been held by the Labour party without a break since its formation in 1918,(yes, even in 1931) , but in both cases the referendum result in 2016 and the subsequent failure, or at least delay, in enacting the results of that plebiscite was influential, as Bexhill and Battle is estimated to have voted 58% for Leave, well above the national and regional average – almost certainly due to its elderly age structure. In an early edition of the Almanac I contrasted Bexhill & Battle with Rother Valley in the apparently impregnable ‘Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire’, which has surprised many by the softening of its defences in recent years, but this sturdy Sussex bastion in the Blue Wall is probably not going to crack any time soon.
It must be remembered that the very patchy Tory performance in council elections is not a reliable guide to a general election even when that party is likely to lose nationally. For a start, local elections are just that, dependent to an extent in local issues and emphatically not deciding the key issues of national power and government. The Conservatives lost control of the Rother authority only 6 months before winning this constituency by over 26,000; and the May 2023 contests were more in the midterm period from which the Tories are likely to make at least some recovery. The fact is that although this seat contains the sites of the most famous invasion and battle in English history, there are no bloody or close-run parliamentary contests in sight, and none in prospect, not even using the telescopes of the Royal Observatory at Herstmonceaux.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 32.2% 4/575
Owner occupied 74.6% 66/575
Private rented 16.2% 373/575
Social rented 9.2% 540/575
White 95.6% 159/575
Black 0.6% 432/575
Asian 1.5% 450/575
Managerial & professional 34.1% 255/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0% 416/575
Degree level 29.7% 352/575
No qualifications 18.5% 244/575
Students 4.1% 551/575
General Election 2019: Bexhill & Battle
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Huw Merriman 37,590 63.6 +1.6
Labour Christine Bayliss 11,531 19.5 −5.2
Liberal Democrats Martin Saunders 7,280 12.3 +4.8
Green Jonathan Kent 2,692 4.6 +2.2
C Majority 26,059 44.1 +6.8
Turnout 59,093 72.1 −1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Bexhill and Battle constituency will consist of
79.7% of Bexhill & Battle
6.1% of Hastings & Rye
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_291_Bexhill%20and%20Battle_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
This was essentially the former Rye county division minus the Cinque Port towns of Rye and Winchelsea, which are now in the marginal Hastings and Rye. Bexhill and Battle consists of a coastal strip between Hastings and Eastbourne, together with the fertile and wooded countryside behind. This is the area most associated with the Norman conquest of England of 1066, for William I landed at Pevensey and defeated the army of the Anglo-Saxon regime at Battle, the heart of the inland part of the seat. Despite this distant history of conflict, the seat has always reflected the peaceful image of Bexhill (its most notable landmark, the 1930s art deco De La Warr Pavilion, has two ‘r’s in Warr!) rather the competitive and indeed martial implications of Battle.
The reasons for this are not hard to fathom. Its residents are white – or at least over 95% of them were at the time of the last published Census (2021). Fewer than one in ten live in housing’s social rented sector. Significant sources of employment are tourism and agriculture. Above all, this is the seat in the country with the fourth highest proportion of pensioners. Around forty per cent of the electorate are of pensionable age, which may well mean that nearly half of all votes in the Bexhill and Battle constituency in 2019 were cast by the elderly, who have a strikingly better turnout rate than younger groups. In parts of Bexhill itself the figures are even more dramatic: well over half of adults in the Kewhurst and Collington MSOAs were over 65 in 2021. The support of ‘grey voters’ cannot be taken for granted, but the stability of the results here suggests long-term Conservative dominance. The Tory majority in Bexhill & Battle has never dipped out of five figures, and in four out of the ten general elections has been over 20,000 and the highest ever, 26,059 was in the most recent, in 2019. Labour were in second place then, as they had been in 2017; the other runners-up have been a motley crew: UKIP in 2015, Liberal Democrats between 1992 and 2010, SDP in 1987, Liberal in 1983 – and none of those in second place has ever done better than 28.9% (LD, 1992).
The picture in local elections on Rother district council has been somewhat different, for since 2019 the ‘Rother Alliance’ of Independents, Liberal Democrats, Labour and Green councillors have a majority between them and formally have control. This was confirmed in May 2023 when the Tories suffered five net losses. Labour were the chief gainers increasing from three councillors in 2019 to eight. For example, they Labour for example topped the poll again in Bexhill Central and in the inland ‘social housing’ ward of Sidley, and gained one in Bexhill Pebsham & St Michael’s, one in Bexhill Old Town & Worsham, and both seats in the Rye & Winchelsea ward (not in Bexhill & Battle constituency). The Greens held their previous seat Bexhill Old Town and Worsham and made one gain in each of Bexhill St Stephen’s and North Battle, Netherfield & Wallington. Independents won everywhere else in Bexhill. The Liberal Democrats maintained their position in both Battle wards and Robertsbridge (of Gray-Nicolls cricket bat manufacture renown) and gained in Catsfield & Crowhurst and Hurst Green & Ticehurst. One of the few Conervative victories came in Burwash, where the great imperial figure Rudyard Kipling made his home for the less dramatic half of his life, at Bateman’s. The Conservative woes in May 2023 spread to the minority of Wealden council in this seat under the current boundaries, losing both Heathfield wards and Pevensey Bay to Independents and Herstmonceaux & Pevensey Levels to the Liberal Democrats. Over all of this territory so associated with the Norman Conquest if 1066, the established government of the land has recently been suffering reverses.
The final report of the Boundary Commission suggests reducing the seat's electorate to within the 5% quota by removing the Heathfield wards. A chunk of Hastings & Rye in the Brede valley around Udimore and Cackle Street is brought in. Overall the seat becomes, slightly, even more elderly, but the electoral impact is neutral. As the new territory is under the Rother council, and as Heathfield is in Wealden, Bexhill & Battle will therefore become even more similar to the Rother district.
Both constituencies based on river Rothers swung to the Conservatives in December 2019, the one in Yorkshire more notably of course, as it had been held by the Labour party without a break since its formation in 1918,(yes, even in 1931) , but in both cases the referendum result in 2016 and the subsequent failure, or at least delay, in enacting the results of that plebiscite was influential, as Bexhill and Battle is estimated to have voted 58% for Leave, well above the national and regional average – almost certainly due to its elderly age structure. In an early edition of the Almanac I contrasted Bexhill & Battle with Rother Valley in the apparently impregnable ‘Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire’, which has surprised many by the softening of its defences in recent years, but this sturdy Sussex bastion in the Blue Wall is probably not going to crack any time soon.
It must be remembered that the very patchy Tory performance in council elections is not a reliable guide to a general election even when that party is likely to lose nationally. For a start, local elections are just that, dependent to an extent in local issues and emphatically not deciding the key issues of national power and government. The Conservatives lost control of the Rother authority only 6 months before winning this constituency by over 26,000; and the May 2023 contests were more in the midterm period from which the Tories are likely to make at least some recovery. The fact is that although this seat contains the sites of the most famous invasion and battle in English history, there are no bloody or close-run parliamentary contests in sight, and none in prospect, not even using the telescopes of the Royal Observatory at Herstmonceaux.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 32.2% 4/575
Owner occupied 74.6% 66/575
Private rented 16.2% 373/575
Social rented 9.2% 540/575
White 95.6% 159/575
Black 0.6% 432/575
Asian 1.5% 450/575
Managerial & professional 34.1% 255/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.0% 416/575
Degree level 29.7% 352/575
No qualifications 18.5% 244/575
Students 4.1% 551/575
General Election 2019: Bexhill & Battle
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Huw Merriman 37,590 63.6 +1.6
Labour Christine Bayliss 11,531 19.5 −5.2
Liberal Democrats Martin Saunders 7,280 12.3 +4.8
Green Jonathan Kent 2,692 4.6 +2.2
C Majority 26,059 44.1 +6.8
Turnout 59,093 72.1 −1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Bexhill and Battle constituency will consist of
79.7% of Bexhill & Battle
6.1% of Hastings & Rye
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_291_Bexhill%20and%20Battle_Landscape.pdf
Notional result 2019 (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 30716 | 61.8% |
| Lab | 10332 | 20.8% |
| LD | 6658 | 13.4% |
| Grn | 2031 | 4.1% |
| Majority | 20384 | 41.0% |
