Post by Robert Waller on Aug 20, 2023 20:01:51 GMT
Back in the 1960s and 1970s those of us interested in electoral politics noticed the adjacent appearance in the alphabetical list of constituencies of Tweedledee and Tweedledum, in the shape of Pontypool and Pontypridd. What is more, they were geographical near neighbours as well, situated in the eastern coal mining valleys of South Wales, Pontypool in historic Monmouthshire and Pontypridd in Glamorgan. They were also political twins, safe Labour seats since 1918 (Pontypool) and 1922 (Pontypridd). Then in 1983 the alphabetical conjunction was broken as Pontypool was in effect renamed as Torfaen; but Pontypridd was retained as a constituency name and is set to do so again after the current boundary review, even though the number of Westminster seats in Wales is sharply reduced from 40 to 32.
Pontypridd constituency only had 60,327 electors at the time of the December 2019 general election. About half of these were to be found in and near the town of Pontypridd itself, along the valley of the River Taff and its confluence with the lower Rhondda. The rest is further west, including Tonyrefail in the seat’s north western corner, Llantrisant, Pontyclun and Miskin to the south west and Beddau and Llantwit Fardre in the ‘mid-west’. This latter half is not really classical Valley territory, as in the main it does not have a coal mining heritage. Indeed despite the unfair characterization of Llantrisant as the ‘hole with a Mint in it’ since the production of coinage was shifted there in 1967 in advance of decimalisation, some of these communities are seen as desirable places to reside and have far from a Labour voting tradition. In the May 2022 elections for the Rhondda Cynon Taf authority, for example, Llantwit Fardre comfortably elected Conservatives to its two council seats, and Labour returned only one councillor between the three Pontyclun wards, and that by a 15 vote margin from the Tory in Pontyclun Central. All in all there are ‘Vale of Glamorgan’ characteristics in most of the western wards.
This is the reason why the socio-economic statistics of the current Pontypridd seat at the time of the 2021 Census might surprise some who are aware only of the name of the constituency. It lies near to the UK median for both employment in professional and managerial occupations, and educational achievement, both as far as ‘degree level’ and ‘no qualifications’ are concerned. There are in fact also an unusually large number of students in full time education due to the presence of the campus of the University of South Wales at Treforest near Pontypridd. The housing figures also revealed a well above average proportion of owner occupation, nearly 72%, although that has long been a characteristic of the region’s coal valleys as well as the western wards.
Given these figures, one might have expected the Pontypridd seat to have fallen to the Conservatives at some point in the last 100 years, if it had not been imbued with the political culture of South Wales. In fact the closest contest since the Second World War occurred in 2010, when it was the Liberal Democrats who cut the Labour majority to just 2,785 votes, this even without the benefit of a base in success in local government. The LDs’ status as junior coalition partners finished off their period of challenge, and by 2019 the Conservatives were clearly in second place, their share of over 29% being their highest since 1959 (32%) – when there was a straight fight with Labour, compared with the seven candidates in 2019. The Tories were undoubtedly helped by the presence of a Brexit candidate, though Pontypridd is estimated to have voted 54% Remain in 2016 – another effect of that mixed social base and perhaps the academic element within the seat.
Labour’s strongest areas within the division are clearly in the ‘valley’ sections whose growth was originally stimulated by coal, iron, steel and tinplate works. Their strongest wards in 2022 included Graig & Pontypridd West (55% top candidate), Rhydfelen Central (76%), Upper Rhydfelen & Glyn Taf (74%) and Treforest, with its student majority (67%) – though Plaid Cymru won in Pontypridd Town. Some of this is very different terrain in general from the western wards shading into the Vale of Glamorgan – Rhydfelen, for example, had fewer than 10% with degrees and over 40% with ‘no qualifications’ in the 2011 census. Now this part of the seat is recommended to be greatly extended by the revised and final recommendations of the Welsh Boundary Commission.
Although the seat name of Pontypridd is to be retained, the boundaries are to be moved distinctly northwards in the heart of the valleys, taking in much (42%) of the abolished seat of Cynon Valley: essentially its southern section (the northern to go into Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon). The communities added pass from Cilfynydd through Abercynon and Ynysybwl (home of the first BDO world darts champion Leighton Rees) to Penrhiwceiber, and at its northern tip, the beautifully named but thoroughly gritty town of Mountain Ash. Most of these have a solid Labour history at local election level, Penrhiwciber being the strongest of all, but some, like Ynysybwl, elected Plaid Cymru councillors in 2022.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the seat, Llanharan, Llanharry and Brynna are slated in the revised proposals to come into Pontypridd from another victim of the Welsh seat cull, Ogmore. However Pontyclun would be moved to Cardiff West and Taffs Well to Cardiff North. Tonyrefail is added to Rhondda. Overall the Pontypridd seat will be more working class, less well educated (with a smaller proportion of full time students), more Labour and less Conservative, and its centre of gravity will be further north, further into the valleys, further away from the Vale of Glamorgan and from Cardiff.
It looks like the second hundred years of Labour representation of Pontypridd will commence with an increased majority - though whether the successful candidate will be the present MP for Pontypridd or Cynon Valley remains to be seen, as of August 2023, though Beth Winter of the latter was not selected for Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon, which includes the majority of her seat, in June of that year. Perhaps the most well known product of Pontypridd around the world is Sir Tom Jones, born in Treforest. What’s New Pussycat? The boundaries. But from a political point of view, as in the first line of The Green Green Grass of Home, “the old hometown looks the same.”
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.5% 312/575
Owner occupied 69.2% 200/575
Private rented 16.7% 350/575
Social rented 14.1% 337/575
White 95.8% 149/575
Black 0.7% 389/575
Asian 1.9% 402 /575
No religion 55.4% 7/575
Managerial & professional 28.4% 400/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.5% 187/575
Degree level 29.3% 365/575
No qualifications 22.0% 116/575
Students 8.4% 142/575
2019 general election: Pontypridd
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alex Davies-Jones 17,381 44.5 –10.9
Conservative Sam Trask 11,494 29.4 +2.7
Plaid Cymru Fflur Elin 4,990 12.8 +2.5
Brexit Party Steve Bayliss 2,917 7.5 N/A
Independent Mike Powell 1,792 4.6 N/A
Independent Sue Prior 337 0.9 N/A
Independent Jonathan Bishop 149 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 5,890 15.1 –13.6
Turnout 39,060 64.7 –1.2
2019 Registered electors 60,327
Labour hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Pontypridd constituency will consist of
70.9% of Pontypridd
41.9% of Cynon Valley
16.4% of Ogmore
Map
Access here
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Pontypridd constituency only had 60,327 electors at the time of the December 2019 general election. About half of these were to be found in and near the town of Pontypridd itself, along the valley of the River Taff and its confluence with the lower Rhondda. The rest is further west, including Tonyrefail in the seat’s north western corner, Llantrisant, Pontyclun and Miskin to the south west and Beddau and Llantwit Fardre in the ‘mid-west’. This latter half is not really classical Valley territory, as in the main it does not have a coal mining heritage. Indeed despite the unfair characterization of Llantrisant as the ‘hole with a Mint in it’ since the production of coinage was shifted there in 1967 in advance of decimalisation, some of these communities are seen as desirable places to reside and have far from a Labour voting tradition. In the May 2022 elections for the Rhondda Cynon Taf authority, for example, Llantwit Fardre comfortably elected Conservatives to its two council seats, and Labour returned only one councillor between the three Pontyclun wards, and that by a 15 vote margin from the Tory in Pontyclun Central. All in all there are ‘Vale of Glamorgan’ characteristics in most of the western wards.
This is the reason why the socio-economic statistics of the current Pontypridd seat at the time of the 2021 Census might surprise some who are aware only of the name of the constituency. It lies near to the UK median for both employment in professional and managerial occupations, and educational achievement, both as far as ‘degree level’ and ‘no qualifications’ are concerned. There are in fact also an unusually large number of students in full time education due to the presence of the campus of the University of South Wales at Treforest near Pontypridd. The housing figures also revealed a well above average proportion of owner occupation, nearly 72%, although that has long been a characteristic of the region’s coal valleys as well as the western wards.
Given these figures, one might have expected the Pontypridd seat to have fallen to the Conservatives at some point in the last 100 years, if it had not been imbued with the political culture of South Wales. In fact the closest contest since the Second World War occurred in 2010, when it was the Liberal Democrats who cut the Labour majority to just 2,785 votes, this even without the benefit of a base in success in local government. The LDs’ status as junior coalition partners finished off their period of challenge, and by 2019 the Conservatives were clearly in second place, their share of over 29% being their highest since 1959 (32%) – when there was a straight fight with Labour, compared with the seven candidates in 2019. The Tories were undoubtedly helped by the presence of a Brexit candidate, though Pontypridd is estimated to have voted 54% Remain in 2016 – another effect of that mixed social base and perhaps the academic element within the seat.
Labour’s strongest areas within the division are clearly in the ‘valley’ sections whose growth was originally stimulated by coal, iron, steel and tinplate works. Their strongest wards in 2022 included Graig & Pontypridd West (55% top candidate), Rhydfelen Central (76%), Upper Rhydfelen & Glyn Taf (74%) and Treforest, with its student majority (67%) – though Plaid Cymru won in Pontypridd Town. Some of this is very different terrain in general from the western wards shading into the Vale of Glamorgan – Rhydfelen, for example, had fewer than 10% with degrees and over 40% with ‘no qualifications’ in the 2011 census. Now this part of the seat is recommended to be greatly extended by the revised and final recommendations of the Welsh Boundary Commission.
Although the seat name of Pontypridd is to be retained, the boundaries are to be moved distinctly northwards in the heart of the valleys, taking in much (42%) of the abolished seat of Cynon Valley: essentially its southern section (the northern to go into Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon). The communities added pass from Cilfynydd through Abercynon and Ynysybwl (home of the first BDO world darts champion Leighton Rees) to Penrhiwceiber, and at its northern tip, the beautifully named but thoroughly gritty town of Mountain Ash. Most of these have a solid Labour history at local election level, Penrhiwciber being the strongest of all, but some, like Ynysybwl, elected Plaid Cymru councillors in 2022.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the seat, Llanharan, Llanharry and Brynna are slated in the revised proposals to come into Pontypridd from another victim of the Welsh seat cull, Ogmore. However Pontyclun would be moved to Cardiff West and Taffs Well to Cardiff North. Tonyrefail is added to Rhondda. Overall the Pontypridd seat will be more working class, less well educated (with a smaller proportion of full time students), more Labour and less Conservative, and its centre of gravity will be further north, further into the valleys, further away from the Vale of Glamorgan and from Cardiff.
It looks like the second hundred years of Labour representation of Pontypridd will commence with an increased majority - though whether the successful candidate will be the present MP for Pontypridd or Cynon Valley remains to be seen, as of August 2023, though Beth Winter of the latter was not selected for Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon, which includes the majority of her seat, in June of that year. Perhaps the most well known product of Pontypridd around the world is Sir Tom Jones, born in Treforest. What’s New Pussycat? The boundaries. But from a political point of view, as in the first line of The Green Green Grass of Home, “the old hometown looks the same.”
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 18.5% 312/575
Owner occupied 69.2% 200/575
Private rented 16.7% 350/575
Social rented 14.1% 337/575
White 95.8% 149/575
Black 0.7% 389/575
Asian 1.9% 402 /575
No religion 55.4% 7/575
Managerial & professional 28.4% 400/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.5% 187/575
Degree level 29.3% 365/575
No qualifications 22.0% 116/575
Students 8.4% 142/575
2019 general election: Pontypridd
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alex Davies-Jones 17,381 44.5 –10.9
Conservative Sam Trask 11,494 29.4 +2.7
Plaid Cymru Fflur Elin 4,990 12.8 +2.5
Brexit Party Steve Bayliss 2,917 7.5 N/A
Independent Mike Powell 1,792 4.6 N/A
Independent Sue Prior 337 0.9 N/A
Independent Jonathan Bishop 149 0.4 N/A
Lab Majority 5,890 15.1 –13.6
Turnout 39,060 64.7 –1.2
2019 Registered electors 60,327
Labour hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Pontypridd constituency will consist of
70.9% of Pontypridd
41.9% of Cynon Valley
16.4% of Ogmore
Map
Access here
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/reviews/06-23/2023-parliamentary-review-final-recommendations
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 21254 | 46.6% |
| Con | 12456 | 27.3% |
| Plaid Cymru | 4963 | 10.9% |
| Brexit | 3855 | 8.5% |
| LD | 639 | 1.4% |
| Green | 101 | 0.2% |
| Oths | 2311 | 5.1% |
| Majority | 8798 | 19.3% |