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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 19, 2023 21:47:10 GMT
When Tony Blair's party landed at Heathrow on election night in 1997 and Alistair Campbell turned on his phone, his response to a text advising him of the gain in Hove was to send an angry text back to Labour HQ telling them to stop sending joke messages.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 20, 2023 7:50:02 GMT
I don't think Blyth Valley was on anyone's radar as a possible Conservative gain in 2019. Likewise Leigh Leigh was forecast as a Tory gain by one of the releases of the YouGov MRP. But not by the BBC during their election coverage. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 20, 2023 8:15:06 GMT
Yes of course it is. D'oh! I’d include Labour seats where their majority was smaller than the Brexit Party vote. Hartlepool was another, and we all know what happened afterwards there. In order of 'majority' over Labour. Crossed out are those which have been Tory since 1983: Barnsley East Hartlepool Doncaster North Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Hull East Barnsley Central Wentworth & Dearne Doncaster Central Hemsworth Hull West & Hessle Rotherham Houghton & Sunderland South Chesterfield Stockton North Dagenham & Rainham Wansbeck Alyn & Deeside Torfaen Sunderland Central Washington & Sunderland West Coventry North West Oldham East & Saddleworth
Wolverhampton South East Makerfield Warrington North Coventry South
Newport West
Weaver Vale
BedfordStalybridge & Hyde Newport East Bradford South Blaydon HalifaxEasington Sheffield South East Warwick & Leamington
Worsley & Eccles South |
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 20, 2023 11:29:57 GMT
I’d include Labour seats where their majority was smaller than the Brexit Party vote. Hartlepool was another, and we all know what happened afterwards there. In order of 'majority' over Labour. Crossed out are those which have been Tory since 1983: Barnsley East Hartlepool Doncaster North Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Hull East Barnsley Central Wentworth & Dearne Doncaster Central Hemsworth Hull West & Hessle Rotherham Houghton & Sunderland South Chesterfield Stockton North Dagenham & Rainham Wansbeck Alyn & Deeside Torfaen Sunderland Central Washington & Sunderland West Coventry North West Oldham East & Saddleworth
Wolverhampton South East Makerfield Warrington North Coventry South
Newport West
Weaver Vale
BedfordStalybridge & Hyde Newport East Bradford South Blaydon HalifaxEasington Sheffield South East Warwick & Leamington
Worsley & Eccles South One needs more precision in that definition by refining it to "... crossed out are those seats that have for any period of time at all since 1983 been held by the Conservatives ..." |
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Post by woollyliberal on Aug 20, 2023 12:37:47 GMT
The day after election day, maps of the UK would be published with each seat coloured in blue, red or yellow. There was always a narrow band of red seats roughly from Rhyl to Leeds, south of which was a sea of blue. It was given the name "Red wall" as it appeared to hold back the blue tide. It took hold because journalists love short hand. A two word phrase that represents two sentences of description. People misuse it of course - any seat that has ever been Labour, from Southampton to Newcastle. The original coining referred to a geographical cluster of seats with Liverpool and Manchester in the middle of them. Here is a map that illustrates the red wall of Labour seats from North Wales to Yorkshire. commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2017_UK_General_Election_map.svg |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 21, 2023 13:52:00 GMT
Cramlington likely voted Labour in the peak Blair years, though your wider point is of course quite correct. Not just the peak Blair years. Result across the six Cramlington wards in the 2005 county elections: Labour 6001 LD 4732 Con 2848 There may have been some difference in voting behaviour between local and national elections, but even allowing for that it's pretty clear that it voted Labour, just not as strongly as Blyth will have done so. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 21, 2023 15:53:40 GMT
Cramlington likely voted Labour in the peak Blair years, though your wider point is of course quite correct. Not just the peak Blair years. Result across the six Cramlington wards in the 2005 county elections: Labour 6001 LD 4732 Con 2848 There may have been some difference in voting behaviour between local and national elections, but even allowing for that it's pretty clear that it voted Labour, just not as strongly as Blyth will have done so. They ‘might’ have won it in 2015 and 2017 as well, the strong local Conservative organisation in Cramlington, and until 2021 lack of organisation elsewhere, makes it quite difficult to predict general election voting behaviour based on local elections. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 22, 2023 17:23:29 GMT
Leigh was forecast as a Tory gain by one of the releases of the YouGov MRP. But not by the BBC during their election coverage. And yet apparently Worsley ‘and Eccles S’ was predicted to be a potential gain by the BBC but was fairly comfortably held. Impressive when you think about it, given it neighbours Leigh and unlike Leigh has a safe, reliable Tory core in Worsley/Boothstown, but this is always outweighed by its classic ‘red wall’ surroundings of Walkden, L’Hulton, Irlam, and the non-Monton half of Eccles, etc, but clearly they didn’t swing as much as predicted. Maybe there was a bonus due to the incumbency of the fairly nationally low-profile Keeley - compared to say Warrington N or Coventry where there was a new Labour candidate who only hung on by 1,000 or fewer. |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 22, 2023 18:59:40 GMT
It would not have made any real difference. Furthermore the Conservatives' vote share actually decreased by 0.2% in Worsley & Eccles South in 2019.
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Post by Dave Morgan on Aug 22, 2023 19:17:27 GMT
Worsley and Eccles South is much more of a Manchester seat than Leigh and certainly Warrington North. Even in bits of the old Worsley Ward, you’d find larger amounts of middle class public sector voters who might not be activated. Also remember two wards voted to remain, where I’d be amazed a single Ward in Leigh or Warrington South even came close.
Where the elections were fought in 2019, there are less marginal voters in WES than Leigh or Warrington North.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 22, 2023 20:42:23 GMT
Worsley and Eccles South is much more of a Manchester seat than Leigh and certainly Warrington North. Even in bits of the old Worsley Ward, you’d find larger amounts of middle class public sector voters who might not be activated. Also remember two wards voted to remain, where I’d be amazed a single Ward in Leigh or Warrington South even came close. Where the elections were fought in 2019, there are less marginal voters in WES than Leigh or Warrington North. Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s where the core of the LD vote would have been as they saved their deposit there in 2019. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2023 14:49:41 GMT
Labour in 1935; Conservative in 2019? What about Scotland?
The SNP arguably knocked down a lot of the Red Wall in 2015.
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