Defining the "Red Wall"

[Pete Whitehead]

I don't think Blyth Valley was on anyone's radar as a possible Conservative gain in 2019. Likewise Leigh

[andrewp]

I don’t think Gedling, Tynemouth and Wirral South have any place on a red wall list. Aren’t they all almost the opposite of red wall- edge of conurbation middle class places that have swung towards Labour?

There are a number of Labour seats of a similar type that were just held in 2019 that have a lot of red wall characteristics. And whilst they now look safe in the current climate they probably won’t go back to being as safe as they used to be- Wansbeck, Stockton North, Normanton, Pontefract etc, Hemsworth, Chesterfield, Hull East, Wentworth, Doncaster North, Rotherham.

And i wonder if you could include places like Easington and N Durham. Whilst Labour held both by 5-6000 they held both by 14000-15000 in 1983 and those relative results are the result of largely the same reason.

[Pete Whitehead]

Warrington North too

[YL]

Aug 18, 2023 19:28:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't think Blyth Valley was on anyone's radar as a possible Conservative gain in 2019. Likewise Leigh

Leigh was forecast as a Tory gain by one of the releases of the YouGov MRP.

[stb12]

I’m sure I remember reading a couple of times that Leigh was a target for the Tories in 2017 because of the Brexit vote, so presumably they would have carried on into the 2019 election

[batman]

Yes, the possibility of Leigh being won by the Tories was extensively discussed during the 2019 campaign, though most psephological experts dismissed the possibility. I thought it was just about possible for Labour to lose it. I was more detached than I usually am during that campaign, as I was temporarily not a Party member and did not campaign (unlike every other general election since 1979 inclusive).

[batman]

Pete you're correct that Blyth Valley wasn't on most people's radar though I think on election night it was being seen as not safe for Labour.

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2023 19:31:36 GMT andrewp said:

I don’t think Gedling, Tynemouth and Wirral South have any place on a red wall list. Aren’t they all almost the opposite of red wall- edge of conurbation middle class places that have swung towards Labour?

There are a number of Labour seats of a similar type that were just held in 2019 that have a lot of red wall characteristics. And whilst they now look safe in the current climate they probably won’t go back to being as safe as they used to be- Wansbeck, Stockton North, Normanton, Pontefract etc, Hemsworth, Chesterfield, Hull East, Wentworth, Doncaster North, Rotherham.

And i wonder if you could include places like Easington and N Durham. Whilst Labour held both by 5-6000 they held both by 14000-15000 in 1983 and those relative results are the result of largely the same reason.

I don't disagree with any of that and would happily describe those places as red-wall type of something similar. However I have deliberately restricted my list to a definitive and bounded criterion because in my view the lack of that is most of the reason why we get such ridiculous seats as Bury South included. Once you start arguing to include X or Y seat because of Z decrease in majority you open the discussion to much more fluid and much less defined parameters and definitions which I deliberately wanted to avoid.

None of which is to say that you are wrong or that I disagree with you, I was using a different definition for a different purpose 

[pepperminttea]

It's a lazy term coined by a lazy media. At least I suppose it is somewhat definable though. It's counterpart 'blue wall' is far worse and has been used to describe heavily leave seats like North Shropshire or even constituencies that had only been blue for 8 years (looking at you Somerton & Frome ).

[swanarcadian]

Thought I’d dig out a spreadsheet I did just after the last GE. I spent a fair while searching my posts for it until it occurred to me I was Admin when I first posted it.
Hartlepool was a seat in which Labour’s majority was smaller than the Brexit Party vote. All other such seats are listed.
Seems like ancient history now. One wonders what might have been had COVID not intervened just afterwards.

Dec 28, 2019 15:26:44 GMT AdminSTB said:

I've created a spreadsheet featuring all the constituencies the Conservatives gained from Labour and the constituencies in which the Brexit Party vote was greater than the Labour majority.

It shows the extent of the Labour decline in each of those seats, as well as the change in the Conservative vote compared with the Brexit Party share. It's a very mixed picture in terms of whether the Conservative increases were greater than the Brexit Party share - there were 30 seats (out of 85) where this happened.

It also shows how well the Brexit Party did compared to UKIP in 2017 - in some cases they did worse (Coventry NW, Crewe and Nantwich, Dagenham & Rainham, Keighley, Lincoln, Newport West, West Bromwich West and Wolverhampton North East).

The Conservative seats are coloured in light blue where their majority is smaller than the Brexit Party vote, dark blue if not.

In each case, if the Conservative increase was greater than the Brexit Party share - or vice versa, it is highlighted.

The Conservatives got over 50% of the vote in Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Crewe and Nantwich, Great Grimsby, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Scunthorpe, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent North, West Bromwich West and Wolverhampton North East.

Spreadsheet

[bjornhattan]

Aug 18, 2023 19:31:36 GMT andrewp said:

I don’t think Gedling, Tynemouth and Wirral South have any place on a red wall list. Aren’t they all almost the opposite of red wall- edge of conurbation middle class places that have swung towards Labour?

There are a number of Labour seats of a similar type that were just held in 2019 that have a lot of red wall characteristics. And whilst they now look safe in the current climate they probably won’t go back to being as safe as they used to be- Wansbeck, Stockton North, Normanton, Pontefract etc, Hemsworth, Chesterfield, Hull East, Wentworth, Doncaster North, Rotherham.

And i wonder if you could include places like Easington and N Durham. Whilst Labour held both by 5-6000 they held both by 14000-15000 in 1983 and those relative results are the result of largely the same reason.

Wansbeck (which you mention) is interesting as it does reveal one downside of doing this analysis at a constituency level. There are two main towns in Wansbeck - Morpeth (which is a pleasant market town popular with Newcastle commuters) and Ashington (which is not). The former can't really be considered Red Wall as it was never that red to start with; the latter is unusually loyal to Labour in local elections and so doesn't really suit the term either. But taken as a whole, I do agree that the overall demographics and political trajectory are quite "Red Wall" - it just goes to show these fuzzy definitions can wander into ecological fallacy territory if not considered carefully!

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2023 22:04:09 GMT pepperminttea said:

It's a lazy term coined by a lazy media. At least I suppose it is somewhat definable though. It's counterpart 'blue wall' is far worse and has been used to describe heavily leave seats like North Shropshire or even constituencies that had only been blue for 8 years (looking at you Somerton & Frome ).

I have deliberately not attempted to define the Blue Wall and am unlikely to do so

[mattbewilson]

Aug 18, 2023 15:41:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

West Bromwich West should be included too. I think the link between Barnsley West & Penistone and Penistone & Stocksbridge is tenuous. It contained a lot more of Barnsley and would I think still be a Labour seat now (I may try and reconstruct this and find out, also whther possibly Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been Tory in 1983. Similar issues wrt Leeds South & Morley/Morley & Outwood. Its a good list overall though.
(also Wrexham has never been in Flintshire)

I agree. There was a Penistone seat on its own for a period with labour MPs consistently from 35 onward. I doubt that seat would have been Labour now outside of a labour government.

[mattbewilson]

I actually think Hillsborough was the true predecessor to P&S. Despite being called Hillsborough it included wards like South Wortley, Chapelgreen and Stockbridge which were the predecessors to East Ecc, West Ecc and SUD which is like 60% of the constituency

[YL]

Aug 18, 2023 23:27:48 GMT mattbewilson said:

Aug 18, 2023 15:41:07 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

West Bromwich West should be included too. I think the link between Barnsley West & Penistone and Penistone & Stocksbridge is tenuous. It contained a lot more of Barnsley and would I think still be a Labour seat now (I may try and reconstruct this and find out, also whther possibly Penistone & Stocksbridge might have been Tory in 1983. Similar issues wrt Leeds South & Morley/Morley & Outwood. Its a good list overall though.
(also Wrexham has never been in Flintshire)

I agree. There was a Penistone seat on its own for a period with labour MPs consistently from 35 onward. I doubt that seat would have been Labour now outside of a labour government.

The Penistone seat that existed from 1955 to 1983 was similar to the current Penistone & Stocksbridge, but:
- It included Hoyland (the town south of Barnsley, roughly the current Rockingham and Hoyland Milton wards, not to be confused with High Hoyland or Hoylandswaine, though they were also in it, as well as being in the current P & S) which is now in Barnsley East. This would have helped Labour considerably.
- It always included the parts of the current Stannington ward in Bradfield parish (Stannington village, Loxley, Worrall, High and Low Bradfield etc.). I don't think this area would have helped Labour, but its electorate would always have been smaller than the other areas involved.
- Before 1974 it included the north-eastern parts of the current Southey ward (area (a) on the parlconst map of Sheffield) which was annexed by Sheffield in the late 1960s and transferred to Sheffield Brightside.
- After 1974 not only did it not include the above area but it also didn't include the southern end of the current East Ecclesfield, which of course is in the current seat and was in Penistone before 1974, but was also in Brightside from 1974 to 2010.

All that means that the 1955-74 version in particular would have been considerably more Labour than the current P & S; I suspect the current seat would have been close in 1955 and 1959.

Before 1955 it extended further north, into what is now Kirklees, including Denby Dale and Kirkburton. I don't think this would help Labour much now, but it might have done back then.

[Deleted]

Aug 18, 2023 22:23:42 GMT bjornhattan said:

Aug 18, 2023 19:31:36 GMT andrewp said:

I don’t think Gedling, Tynemouth and Wirral South have any place on a red wall list. Aren’t they all almost the opposite of red wall- edge of conurbation middle class places that have swung towards Labour?

There are a number of Labour seats of a similar type that were just held in 2019 that have a lot of red wall characteristics. And whilst they now look safe in the current climate they probably won’t go back to being as safe as they used to be- Wansbeck, Stockton North, Normanton, Pontefract etc, Hemsworth, Chesterfield, Hull East, Wentworth, Doncaster North, Rotherham.

And i wonder if you could include places like Easington and N Durham. Whilst Labour held both by 5-6000 they held both by 14000-15000 in 1983 and those relative results are the result of largely the same reason.

Wansbeck (which you mention) is interesting as it does reveal one downside of doing this analysis at a constituency level. There are two main towns in Wansbeck - Morpeth (which is a pleasant market town popular with Newcastle commuters) and Ashington (which is not). The former can't really be considered Red Wall as it was never that red to start with; the latter is unusually loyal to Labour in local elections and so doesn't really suit the term either. But taken as a whole, I do agree that the overall demographics and political trajectory are quite "Red Wall" - it just goes to show these fuzzy definitions can wander into ecological fallacy territory if not considered carefully!

See also Blyth Valley (Cramlington never red, Blyth almost certainly still Labour in '19) and Corby (E Northants very blue, Corby probably still red). One of the reasons it would be nice to have GE results broken down at lower levels 

[The Bishop]

Cramlington likely voted Labour in the peak Blair years, though your wider point is of course quite correct.

[swanarcadian]

Aug 18, 2023 16:00:30 GMT @europeanlefty said:

Aug 18, 2023 15:45:09 GMT andrea said:

Isn't this one still (just) Labour? I think the current Doncaster North is clearly the successor of the 1983 one. Yes, there have been changes but I don't think they especially favored Labour. It got Mexborough (which was in Don Valley in the 80s) and Sprotbrough (from Don Valley) and lost Thorne (to Don Valley)

Yes of course it is. D'oh!

I’d include Labour seats where their majority was smaller than the Brexit Party vote. Hartlepool was another, and we all know what happened afterwards there.

[batman]

Hartlepool is almost always regarded as part of the Red Wall.

[Sg1]

Aug 18, 2023 19:28:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I don't think Blyth Valley was on anyone's radar as a possible Conservative gain in 2019. Likewise Leigh

I remember tallying at the count and my ward colleague whispering in my ear that we'd gained Blyth Valley. I blurted back 'are you sure?'