Post by Robert Waller on Aug 18, 2023 13:10:22 GMT
It is often claimed that the North East Fife constituency contains the ‘home of golf’. Recently the 150th edition of the Open Championship, the senior of golf’s four ‘major’ tournaments (and definitely not the ‘British Open’) took place appropriately enough at the Old Course at St Andrews –which is widely considered as the oldest golf course in the world. It is spoken of with hushed reverence, although, whisper it softly, it is short in yardage in modern terms and can be rendered relatively defenceless absent the wind on which links (seaside) courses partially depend. However the visit of the (golfing) world’s media gave plenty of opportunity to those who wished also to rhapsodise about the largest town in the North East Fife division, the Auld Grey Toon, the home of the oldest university in Scotland, the third most venerable in the English Speaking World, Where William Met Kate, and so on. Some of this is indeed media hyperbole. But one thing is for sure. Never mind all that History and Heritage. The constituency in which St Andrews plays an important – but minority – role has been the site of some of the most interesting political and electoral contests in recent times.
The seat which covers the geographical majority of the Fife peninsula (or, if we must, the ancient Kingdom of Fife, though – whisper it again - the earliest reference to this supposed Pictish entity actually dates from c1678) was known as East Fife from 1885 to 1983. It had a distinguished Liberal pedigree, being represented by Herbert Henry Asquith from 1886 to 1918, when he was defeated as one of many who did not take Lloyd George’s coupon in the great, and arguably ultimately fatal, Liberal split. It then alternated between Liberal and Unionist until finding a kind of compromise in the shape of National Liberalism after the formation of the MacDonald coalition in 1931, a party which did however effectively merge with the Tories. Post World War Two was it was not considered as a marginal; interestingly the long term MP Sir John Gilmour styled himself a Unionist until 1965. The Liberals only came third when he was first returned in a byelection in 1961, despite that being at a time of one of their periodic mini-revivals. When Menzies Campbell contested East Fife in its final contest in 1979 he did manage to advance to second place, just, but was still over 9,000 behind the new Conservative MP Barry Henderson.
In the inaugural race for NE Fife in 1983, though, Campbell cut Henderson’s majority to 2,185, and in 1987 he reversed that result with a lead just under 1,500. He retained the seat with ease six more times, serving as leader of the Liberal Democrats between March 2006 and October 2007. He retired from the Commons in 2015 and thus did not personally suffer the massive rejection of the junior coalition partner, but NE Fife fell to the SNP steamroller of that year. Previously the best Nationalist placing had been third and their highest share 14%. But Stephen Gethins beat Campbell’s successor as LD candidate Tim Brett by over 4,000, then in 2017 held on against Elizabeth Riches by two votes: 13,743 versus 13,741 – the closest result ruled valid (Winchester 1997, also a majority of 2, was ordered to be re-run) since Ilkeston 1931 and not ‘beaten’ since Exeter 1910.
In December 2019 Wendy Chamberlain produced a rare consolation victory for the party, whose leader Jo Swinson was actually defeated in another Scottish seat. As we shall see when looking at its internal political composition, it now looks like the Liberal Democrats remain favourites to retain it. This is clearly a seat with a distinguished history of Liberalism. There are multiple explanatory factors. Back in the 19th century when the chief contest was between Liberalism and Unionism the former was strengthened by the influence of the fishing industry and the facts that this was not the Scotland of landed aristocratic influence, and also the outweighing of the unionist Church of Scotland (the Kirk) by rural nonconformist Presbyterianism (at that time St Andrews and other burghs were actually in a separate constituency). Asquith clearly built up a considerable personal vote just as Menzies Campbell did later. In recent times, there has clearly been an academic disposition to the Liberal Democrats (just as in the decades around the turn of the 21st century Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol West, Norwich South and other university seats favoured them). In the 2011 census fully 16% of residents were full time students, and the seat lay 7th in the UK table as far as employment in education is concerned. St Andrews with its reputation for being the least ‘Scottish’ of the universities north of the order would not be a likely stronghold for the SNP.
In the May 2022 local authority elections in Fife the St Andrews ward gave 48% of its first preferences to the Liberal Democrats, only 22% to the SNP. But this was far from the only part of the constituency to express continuing, and even strengthening, loyalty to the LDs. The second town of the seat is Cupar (population 9,000 to St Andrews’s permanent residency of 17,000). In Cupar ward Liberal Democrats also managed to return two members out of three even with the STV system, because they received over 52% of first preferences, again outscoring the SNP (26%) by two to one. In the splendidly named East Neuk and Landward, the LDs were again first, 46% to 25% for the SNP. The East Neuk is the collective name for the (largely former), largely attractive fishing villages on the Firth of Forth such as Elie, St Monans, Pittenweem, Anstruther, Crail and Kingsbarns, plus the slightly weird Cellardyke. On the other side of St Andrews is to be found the less romantically named Tay Bridgehead, not quite a disaster for the SNP but still in 2022 a distant second place, with 28% to the LD 48%. The main towns here are Newport on Tay opposite Dundee, and, confusingly, Tayport opposite Broughty Ferry. The most western and inland part of the NE Fife seat is the ward named after the Howe of Fife, in the lee of the Falkland hills, with communities such as Freuchie (famed for its national village cricket cup winning team), Newburgh, and Auchtermuchty – which those with long memories might remember being cited as a beacon of good sense by the right wing commentator John Junor of the Daily Express half a century and more ago; he may spin in his grave, but the Howe was won comfortably by the Liberal Democrats in 2022 as well. In the 2022 elections as a whole, the Conservatives scarcely figured anywhere , 14% in St Andrews ward and the Howe of Fife wards being their best showings.
Indeed this may well be connected with one reason why the Liberal Democrats ousted Stephen Gethins and regained NE in the 2019 general election, even though the SNP share itself rose by 7%: tactical voting. In that knife edge 2017 contest, the Tories had still taken 24% of the vote. Two years later it was down to 13%, suggesting a definite coalescence of ‘unionist’ (in the modern sense) support around the LDs. Labour also collapsed to a deposit-losing 3.7%. This is understandable both give attitudes concerning the independence cleavage and the obvious two party nature of the contest after the 2 vote majority. No real need for Liberal Democrat bar charts, though they would in this case be fully justified.
The current evidence seems to suggest a likely Liberal Democrat hold next time, especially as Wendy Chamberlain will have had a chance to build a personal incumbency vote, and the Nationalists have suffered a series of specific blows affecting their leadership and central organisation, as well as having been in power within Scotland as a whole for over 15 years. The Scottish Boundary Commission is not suggesting major changes in a seat whose electorate is already close to the quota and whose geographical position does not lend itself to easy revision, wedged as it is between the Tay and the Forth. The electorate is proposed to expand by taking around 10,000 from the Glenrothes seat. This would be the only part of the new and revised NE Fife seat where the Lib Dems did not dominate at local level in May 2022 as it is the more industrial corner nearer to Kirkcaldy: the NE Fife seat is now to include the whole of the Leven, Kennoway & Largo ward, which was actually an SNP win with 42%, though that was only enough to take one of the three council seats, the others being divided between LD and Labour, at around 20% each – and the only pocket of Labour support in the whole constituency. Leven, Kennoway & Largo is currently split between North East Fife and Glenrothes, with Largo and Leven East in the former seat and the rest of Leven, Kennoway and Windygates in the latter. Largo was part of the pre-2005 North East Fife and in the days of single wards was politically similar to other coastal wards in the East Neuk: strongly Lib Dem with the Tories in second. It accounts for much of the Lib Dem support in that ward, whereas there will have been very little in the new parts of the seat, where the SNP are likely to be strong.* Overall, the Liberal Democrats would probably still have had a small notional lead in 2019, with more power to add from ‘unionist’ tactical considerations as well as Wendy Chamberlain’s incumbency and the apparent SNP decline.
The 2022 Open golf, like so many majors, and unlike so many other sports with their predictable winners from a very small field of possibles (tennis, Formula 1 motor racing, Premier League football, indeed Scottish Premiership football …) produced a first-time victor after a very close and exciting contest. Compared with most other seats, the North East Fife constituency has certainly displayed the latter characteristic recently, but there really are only two parties with a realistic chance of victory, and right at present the outcome of the next election looks more predictable than the golf; but with Scottish politics in general with a chance of potential further dramatic developments, elections in this historic seat will also offer extended good spectator value.
*I would like to thank aidanthomson for this analysis, from the current seat Vote UK thread. The comment re the probable notional is, however, mine.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.3% 123/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 335/650
Private rented 16.4% 214/650
Social rented 15.0% 352/650
White 96.5% 271/650
Black 0.4% 436/650
Asian 2.3% 346/650
Managerial & professional 32.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.9%
Employed in education 16.2% 7/650
Degree level 33.9% 104/650
No qualifications 19.2% 488/650
Students 18.2% 42/650
2022 Census – details not yet available
General Election 2019: North East Fife
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Wendy Chamberlain 19,763 43.1 +10.2
SNP Stephen Gethins 18,447 40.2 +7.3
Conservative Tony Miklinski 5,961 13.0 -11.1
Labour Wendy Haynes 1,707 3.7 -5.9
LD Majority 1,316 2.9
2019 electorate 60,905
Turnout 45,878 75.3 +4.0
Liberal Democrats gain from SNP
Swing 1.5 SNP to LD
Boundary Changes
The new NE Fife will be composed of
100% of NE Fife
14.3% of Glenrothes
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/north_east_fife_1.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
The seat which covers the geographical majority of the Fife peninsula (or, if we must, the ancient Kingdom of Fife, though – whisper it again - the earliest reference to this supposed Pictish entity actually dates from c1678) was known as East Fife from 1885 to 1983. It had a distinguished Liberal pedigree, being represented by Herbert Henry Asquith from 1886 to 1918, when he was defeated as one of many who did not take Lloyd George’s coupon in the great, and arguably ultimately fatal, Liberal split. It then alternated between Liberal and Unionist until finding a kind of compromise in the shape of National Liberalism after the formation of the MacDonald coalition in 1931, a party which did however effectively merge with the Tories. Post World War Two was it was not considered as a marginal; interestingly the long term MP Sir John Gilmour styled himself a Unionist until 1965. The Liberals only came third when he was first returned in a byelection in 1961, despite that being at a time of one of their periodic mini-revivals. When Menzies Campbell contested East Fife in its final contest in 1979 he did manage to advance to second place, just, but was still over 9,000 behind the new Conservative MP Barry Henderson.
In the inaugural race for NE Fife in 1983, though, Campbell cut Henderson’s majority to 2,185, and in 1987 he reversed that result with a lead just under 1,500. He retained the seat with ease six more times, serving as leader of the Liberal Democrats between March 2006 and October 2007. He retired from the Commons in 2015 and thus did not personally suffer the massive rejection of the junior coalition partner, but NE Fife fell to the SNP steamroller of that year. Previously the best Nationalist placing had been third and their highest share 14%. But Stephen Gethins beat Campbell’s successor as LD candidate Tim Brett by over 4,000, then in 2017 held on against Elizabeth Riches by two votes: 13,743 versus 13,741 – the closest result ruled valid (Winchester 1997, also a majority of 2, was ordered to be re-run) since Ilkeston 1931 and not ‘beaten’ since Exeter 1910.
In December 2019 Wendy Chamberlain produced a rare consolation victory for the party, whose leader Jo Swinson was actually defeated in another Scottish seat. As we shall see when looking at its internal political composition, it now looks like the Liberal Democrats remain favourites to retain it. This is clearly a seat with a distinguished history of Liberalism. There are multiple explanatory factors. Back in the 19th century when the chief contest was between Liberalism and Unionism the former was strengthened by the influence of the fishing industry and the facts that this was not the Scotland of landed aristocratic influence, and also the outweighing of the unionist Church of Scotland (the Kirk) by rural nonconformist Presbyterianism (at that time St Andrews and other burghs were actually in a separate constituency). Asquith clearly built up a considerable personal vote just as Menzies Campbell did later. In recent times, there has clearly been an academic disposition to the Liberal Democrats (just as in the decades around the turn of the 21st century Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol West, Norwich South and other university seats favoured them). In the 2011 census fully 16% of residents were full time students, and the seat lay 7th in the UK table as far as employment in education is concerned. St Andrews with its reputation for being the least ‘Scottish’ of the universities north of the order would not be a likely stronghold for the SNP.
In the May 2022 local authority elections in Fife the St Andrews ward gave 48% of its first preferences to the Liberal Democrats, only 22% to the SNP. But this was far from the only part of the constituency to express continuing, and even strengthening, loyalty to the LDs. The second town of the seat is Cupar (population 9,000 to St Andrews’s permanent residency of 17,000). In Cupar ward Liberal Democrats also managed to return two members out of three even with the STV system, because they received over 52% of first preferences, again outscoring the SNP (26%) by two to one. In the splendidly named East Neuk and Landward, the LDs were again first, 46% to 25% for the SNP. The East Neuk is the collective name for the (largely former), largely attractive fishing villages on the Firth of Forth such as Elie, St Monans, Pittenweem, Anstruther, Crail and Kingsbarns, plus the slightly weird Cellardyke. On the other side of St Andrews is to be found the less romantically named Tay Bridgehead, not quite a disaster for the SNP but still in 2022 a distant second place, with 28% to the LD 48%. The main towns here are Newport on Tay opposite Dundee, and, confusingly, Tayport opposite Broughty Ferry. The most western and inland part of the NE Fife seat is the ward named after the Howe of Fife, in the lee of the Falkland hills, with communities such as Freuchie (famed for its national village cricket cup winning team), Newburgh, and Auchtermuchty – which those with long memories might remember being cited as a beacon of good sense by the right wing commentator John Junor of the Daily Express half a century and more ago; he may spin in his grave, but the Howe was won comfortably by the Liberal Democrats in 2022 as well. In the 2022 elections as a whole, the Conservatives scarcely figured anywhere , 14% in St Andrews ward and the Howe of Fife wards being their best showings.
Indeed this may well be connected with one reason why the Liberal Democrats ousted Stephen Gethins and regained NE in the 2019 general election, even though the SNP share itself rose by 7%: tactical voting. In that knife edge 2017 contest, the Tories had still taken 24% of the vote. Two years later it was down to 13%, suggesting a definite coalescence of ‘unionist’ (in the modern sense) support around the LDs. Labour also collapsed to a deposit-losing 3.7%. This is understandable both give attitudes concerning the independence cleavage and the obvious two party nature of the contest after the 2 vote majority. No real need for Liberal Democrat bar charts, though they would in this case be fully justified.
The current evidence seems to suggest a likely Liberal Democrat hold next time, especially as Wendy Chamberlain will have had a chance to build a personal incumbency vote, and the Nationalists have suffered a series of specific blows affecting their leadership and central organisation, as well as having been in power within Scotland as a whole for over 15 years. The Scottish Boundary Commission is not suggesting major changes in a seat whose electorate is already close to the quota and whose geographical position does not lend itself to easy revision, wedged as it is between the Tay and the Forth. The electorate is proposed to expand by taking around 10,000 from the Glenrothes seat. This would be the only part of the new and revised NE Fife seat where the Lib Dems did not dominate at local level in May 2022 as it is the more industrial corner nearer to Kirkcaldy: the NE Fife seat is now to include the whole of the Leven, Kennoway & Largo ward, which was actually an SNP win with 42%, though that was only enough to take one of the three council seats, the others being divided between LD and Labour, at around 20% each – and the only pocket of Labour support in the whole constituency. Leven, Kennoway & Largo is currently split between North East Fife and Glenrothes, with Largo and Leven East in the former seat and the rest of Leven, Kennoway and Windygates in the latter. Largo was part of the pre-2005 North East Fife and in the days of single wards was politically similar to other coastal wards in the East Neuk: strongly Lib Dem with the Tories in second. It accounts for much of the Lib Dem support in that ward, whereas there will have been very little in the new parts of the seat, where the SNP are likely to be strong.* Overall, the Liberal Democrats would probably still have had a small notional lead in 2019, with more power to add from ‘unionist’ tactical considerations as well as Wendy Chamberlain’s incumbency and the apparent SNP decline.
The 2022 Open golf, like so many majors, and unlike so many other sports with their predictable winners from a very small field of possibles (tennis, Formula 1 motor racing, Premier League football, indeed Scottish Premiership football …) produced a first-time victor after a very close and exciting contest. Compared with most other seats, the North East Fife constituency has certainly displayed the latter characteristic recently, but there really are only two parties with a realistic chance of victory, and right at present the outcome of the next election looks more predictable than the golf; but with Scottish politics in general with a chance of potential further dramatic developments, elections in this historic seat will also offer extended good spectator value.
*I would like to thank aidanthomson for this analysis, from the current seat Vote UK thread. The comment re the probable notional is, however, mine.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 20.3% 123/650
Owner-occupied 66.7% 335/650
Private rented 16.4% 214/650
Social rented 15.0% 352/650
White 96.5% 271/650
Black 0.4% 436/650
Asian 2.3% 346/650
Managerial & professional 32.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 20.9%
Employed in education 16.2% 7/650
Degree level 33.9% 104/650
No qualifications 19.2% 488/650
Students 18.2% 42/650
2022 Census – details not yet available
General Election 2019: North East Fife
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal Democrats Wendy Chamberlain 19,763 43.1 +10.2
SNP Stephen Gethins 18,447 40.2 +7.3
Conservative Tony Miklinski 5,961 13.0 -11.1
Labour Wendy Haynes 1,707 3.7 -5.9
LD Majority 1,316 2.9
2019 electorate 60,905
Turnout 45,878 75.3 +4.0
Liberal Democrats gain from SNP
Swing 1.5 SNP to LD
Boundary Changes
The new NE Fife will be composed of
100% of NE Fife
14.3% of Glenrothes
Map
www.bcomm-scotland.independent.gov.uk/sites/default/files/north_east_fife_1.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Professor David Denver for Rallings and Thrasher)
| SNP | 21371 | 41.0% |
| LD | 20643 | 39.6% |
| Con | 7126 | 13.7% |
| Lab | 2859 | 5.5% |
| Brexit | 184 | 0.4% |
| | ||
| Majority | 728 | 1.4% |
