Ilford North

[John Chanin]

Ilford sits on the east bank of the river Roding at the edge of the London conurbation, with Chigwell in Essex to the north (the urban area is continuous). Ilford North consists mainly of inter-war owner-occupied semi-detached houses, and is thoroughly middle-class. It was famous historically for its large Jewish population, centred on Gants Hill in the south of the seat, and despite large numbers having moved out this was still in the top 20 of the most Jewish seats at the last census. These days they are far outnumbered by Asian households (both Indian and Pakistani) who form the majority in the four southern wards of the seat. Ilford was also famous for the large number of London taxi drivers who lived there, and though their ethnicity has changed, this has not. Further north in Fairlop, the population is majority white and this was the only Ilford ward held by the Conservatives at the last local elections. In the north-east corner there is some variety - the large post-war LCC overspill estate of Hainault. Like most of the low-rise cottage estates on the edge of London this is now majority owner-occupied. There has been less transfer to private renting than in other similar east London estates, and the ward remains nearly two-thirds white, with a low asian population, but is only slightly more working-class than the rest of the seat. At local level it has a history of UKIP voting, like many peripheral counil estate areas. Hainault is the furthest flung station on the loop of the Central line, which serves Redbridge, and is therefore well connected to central London, despite being largely surrounded by open space.

The Boundary Commission is proposing substantial changes to this seat. All the Woodford area amounting to 16,000 voters is being moved to Chingford & Woodford Green, and Leyton & Wanstead seats. In exchange 17,000 voters come in from Ilford South in Cranbrook and Valentines wards, south of the A12 and alongside the Roding, taking the seat almost into Ilford town centre. These are very similar socially to the Barkingside area already in the seat, Valentines being notable for the extremely high level of private renting - very nearly 50% - and the large park where Essex used to play county cricket. Cranbrook used to have a significant Conservative vote, and was the last ward in the old Ilford South seat to elect Conservative councillors, but is now as safe as the other wards in the south of the seat.

Historically Ilford North was a fairly safe Conservative seat, vulnerable to Labour only in a very good year. It was won by Labour in 1997 and 2001, but reverted to the Conservatives in 2005. This is one of the seats in Britain that has been subject to the most rapid social and political change - the safest Conservative seat won by Labour in 2015, followed by another big swing in 2017, and a comfortable hold in 2019. The MP since 2015 is Wes Streeting, former president of the National Union of Students, and charity and political worker. He is now a senior member of the cabinet. The boundary changes should have removed any worries Streeting might have had about his future tenure of the seat, however he was given a real scare in 2024, with the Muslim independent reducing his majority to 3 figures, with Labour polling just a third of the vote.

Census data: Owner-occupied 61% (377/575 in England & Wales), private rented 27% (86th), social rented 11% (472nd).
                      : White 33%(565th), Black 8%(88th), Sth Asian 43%(10th), Mixed 4%(155th), Other 13%(27th)
                      : Managerial & professional 41% (214th), Routine & Semi-routine 22% (455th)
                      : Degree 42% (92nd), Minimal qualifications 27% (331st)
                      : Students 10% (95th), Over 65: 13% (496th)
                      : Muslim 31%(20th), Hindu 14%(6th), Sikh 5%(21st)

Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 76% from Ilford North, and 24% from Ilford South
                       78% of the old seat is in the new one, with 17% going to Chingford & Woodford Green, and 5% going to Leyton & Wanstead

	2017	%	2019	%	Notional	%	2024	%
Labour	30,589	57.8	25,323	50.5	28,024	54.1	15,647	33.4
Conservative	20,950	39.6	20,105	40.1	18,994	36.7	9,619	20.5
Liberal Democrat	1,034	2.0	2,680	5.3	2,056	4.0	1,088	2.3
Brexit/Reform			960	1.9	968	1.9	3,621	7.7
Green			845	1.7	709	1.4	1,794	3.8
Other	368	0.7	201	0.4	1,010	2.0	15,119	32.2
Majority	9,639	18.2	5,218	10.4	9,030	17.5	528	1.1

[batman]

The BNP topped the poll in Hainault ward in 2006, though they won only one seat of the 3, the other 2 going to the Conservatives. Of course things have hugely changed since then.

[batman]

Although postally quite a bit of this seat is Ilford, I'm not sure that many of its inhabitants would say they live in Ilford. The same is certainly not true of Ilford South.

[london(ex)tory]

www.standard.co.uk/news/london/palestinian-leanne-mohamad-run-wes-streeting-election-ilford-north-b1132781.html

Pro-Palestinian candidate standing here. Ah well, hopefully at least that means I won’t finish last 😉

There won’t be much I agree with Wes during the campaign, but I’m fully supportive of him on this and it’s terrible the abuse he’s taken over the past few weeks.

The candidate in the article above is being backed by a group whose website proudly features a video of a mob “protesting” outside Wes’ office. He deserves better than that, and I hope Ilford North rejects this politics of hate and intimidation.