Post by Robert Waller on Aug 17, 2023 12:54:31 GMT
“It’s a long way round whichever way you go”; “Hell, Hull and Halifax”; “the end of the line”. The city of Kingston upon Hull has often been seen as unattractive, backward, and remote – and the poorest, most deprived and indeed furthest part of it is its East constituency. It was also traditionally the safest Labour seat of the three in Hull – for forty years from 1970 to 2010 it was indelibly associated with its pugnacious, even pugilistic member, John Prescott, the epitome of Old Labour and its (scarcely) balancing representative as Deputy PM in Tony Blair’s governments from 1997 to 2007. Yet that aspect of its reputation has been dramatically weakened in recent years.
Labour’s problems in the eastern section of Hull exist on two separate fronts. Firstly, in council elections the Liberal Democrats have been on a highly successful offensive for decades. In May 2022 they took overall control from Labour, but that was far from unprecedented. They had previously enjoyed an overall majority from 2007 to 2012, for example, and they had been the largest party on a hung council as far back as 2002. Within the East constituency the Liberal Democrats won several wards with convincing majorities in the most recent contests in May 2023: Drypool by over three to one against Labour, Holderness (which is not in or near the peninsula of that name) by over two to one, and Sutton. In 2022 when it was last contested they gained Longhill & Bilton Grange from Labour. In 2023 Labour held only three: Marfleet which covers most of the dockland frontage on the Humber, and Southcoates, though both very easily, and Ings, more closely.
These latter three Labour wards do still have a very high proportion of social housing, but it would not be accurate to say that the Liberal Democrats’ success lies essentially in owner occupied or relatively affluent areas. Drypool covers the east end of the city centre and has the highest proportion of privately rented housing in the constituency. Longhill also had over 50% social rented housing as recently as 2011, although the ward boundaries first fought in 2018 include the more modern and mixed tenure Bilton, out on the very north eastern edge of the conurbation beyond the Asda superstore. To some extent the Liberal Democrat municipal threat is a known quantity, and they have never so far been able to translate it into general election success in Hull East. They finished second three times between 2001 and 2010, with 23% in that last year their best by some distance (in 2001 their candidate was a 21 year old Jo Swinson) – but in 2019 they finished fourth with a fairly wretched 5.3%, having lost their deposit in 2017.
The other angle of attack – in general elections only - has come from the Conservative party, who cut the Labour majority in December 2019 to an astonishingly slender 1,239. Having been the safest of the three Labour seats in Hull, it now appeared to be the most vulnerable. The Tories have had no success in Hull council elections within the seat since at least the late 1960s. The reason for the transformation is clear. In 2016 Hull East is estimated to have voted for Brexit by 73% to 27%, clearly the highest proportion in the city. In the 2015 general election UKIP had finished second with a share of over 22%, and still in 2019 the Brexit party took nearly 18%: one of their top ten results anywhere in Britain. Attitudes to departing from the EU also largely explain why the Conservative share surpassed 35% that year, while Labour’s slid by 19% from 58% to 39% (Prescott had achieved a high of over 71% in 1997).
The preference for Brexit links to Hull East’s demographic variable figures. At the time of the 2021 census it was over 96% white. Its proportion of social rented housing was double the national average. As far as employment is concerned, it hovered around the nation’s top ten for semi-routine and routine workers, and was 571st out of 575 for employment in professional and managerial occupations (and consistently with a relatively very high number of long term unemployed). This is, quite simply, still one of the most homogeneously working class constituencies in the land. There is very little of the intellectual and student presence that the university adds to Hull North; East ranked the 4th lowest of the 575 constituencies in England and Wales for those possessing educational qualifications to degree level. As with London, the port facilities are focused in the east end of Hull, but unlike London that area has not see a massive financial regeneration; Hull East ranked 644th in the UK for employment in financial and insurance activities in the last census for which full figures are available, which does not exactly sound like Canary Wharf.
At the time of the 2019 general election, Hull East’s electorate was only 65,754, almost ten thousand below the quota applicable in the boundary review completed in 2023. In their provisional recommendations for Yorkshire and the Humber, the Commission suggested adding just one ward (thus known as an ‘orphan’) from a different local authority, the East Riding of Yorkshire and from a different constituency, Beverley & Holderness; but it is of a very different nature. It was acknowledged that South West Holderness has a “considerably more rural character”, but there are road links along the A1033 particularly to its largest community, the small market town of Hedon (population 7,000), though the ward also includes villages such as Paull, Preston and Thorngumbald. This is slightly mysterious, largely flat country behind the banks of the Humber - the names Paull Holme Sands, Cherry Cobb Sands and Salthaugh Sands suggest something of its nature. Though moving further east, the seat would still not have reached the distinctive landmark of Spurn Head, which is in South East Holderness ward and placed first in the provisionally proposed Bridlington & Holderness, and finally back in Beverley & Holderness. Therefore the nearest Hull East would be to including the ‘mouth of the Humber’ is that its MP is likely still to be Karl Turner, identified by the former Speaker John Bercow as the noisiest member of the Commons in his time.
However, in the revised Boundary Commission proposals of November 2022, confirmed in June 2023, the idea of including South West Holderness was reversed. Instead Hull East would gain the urban North Carr ward from its neighbour Hull North, leaving it as an entirely urban seat, and indeed the only Hull constituency entirely within the city of Kingston upon Hull, and also, after the Final Report, the only one where the Hull name is not associated with another entity. This change further increases the social rented housing percentage and the disparity between non-manual occupations and routine and semi-routine jobs – which are now the 2nd highest anywhere in England and Wales. It has a very strong chance of remaining in Labour hands, as it looks quite likely that the Conservative party will not be able to replicate their historically outstanding performance here in the circumstances of the ‘Boris/Brexit’ contest. Labour should also remain ahead, if narrowly, when the calculations for the notional results for 2019 on the new boundaries are completed. Therefore the prospect has receded of “Labour gains Hull East” as a piquant flash across the screen for psephological connoisseurs, ‘badgers’, and nerds.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 380/575
Owner occupied 51.5% 490/575
Private rented 18.2% 286/575
Social rented 30.2% 34/575
White 96.1% 121/575
Black 0.8% 352/575
Asian 1.3% 473/575
Managerial & professional 18.8% 566/575
Routine & Semi-routine 37.7% 2/575
Degree level 18.6% 571/575
No qualifications 26.9% 21/575
Students 5.6% 278/575
2019 General Election: Kingston upon Hull East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Karl Turner 12,713 39.2 −19.1
Conservative Rachel Storer 11,474 35.4 +5.5
Brexit Party Marten Hall 5,764 17.8 New
Liberal Democrats Bob Morgan 1,707 5.3 +1.9
Green Julia Brown 784 2.4 +1.1
Lab Majority 1,239 3.8 −24.6
Registered electors 65,754
Turnout 32,442 49.3 −6.2
Labour hold
Swings
12.3 Lab to C
18.4 Lab to Brexit
Boundary Changes
The new Kingston upon Hull East will be composed of
96.2% of Kingston upon Hull East
15.1% of Kingston upon Hull North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_510_Kingston%20upon%20Hull%20East_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
Labour’s problems in the eastern section of Hull exist on two separate fronts. Firstly, in council elections the Liberal Democrats have been on a highly successful offensive for decades. In May 2022 they took overall control from Labour, but that was far from unprecedented. They had previously enjoyed an overall majority from 2007 to 2012, for example, and they had been the largest party on a hung council as far back as 2002. Within the East constituency the Liberal Democrats won several wards with convincing majorities in the most recent contests in May 2023: Drypool by over three to one against Labour, Holderness (which is not in or near the peninsula of that name) by over two to one, and Sutton. In 2022 when it was last contested they gained Longhill & Bilton Grange from Labour. In 2023 Labour held only three: Marfleet which covers most of the dockland frontage on the Humber, and Southcoates, though both very easily, and Ings, more closely.
These latter three Labour wards do still have a very high proportion of social housing, but it would not be accurate to say that the Liberal Democrats’ success lies essentially in owner occupied or relatively affluent areas. Drypool covers the east end of the city centre and has the highest proportion of privately rented housing in the constituency. Longhill also had over 50% social rented housing as recently as 2011, although the ward boundaries first fought in 2018 include the more modern and mixed tenure Bilton, out on the very north eastern edge of the conurbation beyond the Asda superstore. To some extent the Liberal Democrat municipal threat is a known quantity, and they have never so far been able to translate it into general election success in Hull East. They finished second three times between 2001 and 2010, with 23% in that last year their best by some distance (in 2001 their candidate was a 21 year old Jo Swinson) – but in 2019 they finished fourth with a fairly wretched 5.3%, having lost their deposit in 2017.
The other angle of attack – in general elections only - has come from the Conservative party, who cut the Labour majority in December 2019 to an astonishingly slender 1,239. Having been the safest of the three Labour seats in Hull, it now appeared to be the most vulnerable. The Tories have had no success in Hull council elections within the seat since at least the late 1960s. The reason for the transformation is clear. In 2016 Hull East is estimated to have voted for Brexit by 73% to 27%, clearly the highest proportion in the city. In the 2015 general election UKIP had finished second with a share of over 22%, and still in 2019 the Brexit party took nearly 18%: one of their top ten results anywhere in Britain. Attitudes to departing from the EU also largely explain why the Conservative share surpassed 35% that year, while Labour’s slid by 19% from 58% to 39% (Prescott had achieved a high of over 71% in 1997).
The preference for Brexit links to Hull East’s demographic variable figures. At the time of the 2021 census it was over 96% white. Its proportion of social rented housing was double the national average. As far as employment is concerned, it hovered around the nation’s top ten for semi-routine and routine workers, and was 571st out of 575 for employment in professional and managerial occupations (and consistently with a relatively very high number of long term unemployed). This is, quite simply, still one of the most homogeneously working class constituencies in the land. There is very little of the intellectual and student presence that the university adds to Hull North; East ranked the 4th lowest of the 575 constituencies in England and Wales for those possessing educational qualifications to degree level. As with London, the port facilities are focused in the east end of Hull, but unlike London that area has not see a massive financial regeneration; Hull East ranked 644th in the UK for employment in financial and insurance activities in the last census for which full figures are available, which does not exactly sound like Canary Wharf.
At the time of the 2019 general election, Hull East’s electorate was only 65,754, almost ten thousand below the quota applicable in the boundary review completed in 2023. In their provisional recommendations for Yorkshire and the Humber, the Commission suggested adding just one ward (thus known as an ‘orphan’) from a different local authority, the East Riding of Yorkshire and from a different constituency, Beverley & Holderness; but it is of a very different nature. It was acknowledged that South West Holderness has a “considerably more rural character”, but there are road links along the A1033 particularly to its largest community, the small market town of Hedon (population 7,000), though the ward also includes villages such as Paull, Preston and Thorngumbald. This is slightly mysterious, largely flat country behind the banks of the Humber - the names Paull Holme Sands, Cherry Cobb Sands and Salthaugh Sands suggest something of its nature. Though moving further east, the seat would still not have reached the distinctive landmark of Spurn Head, which is in South East Holderness ward and placed first in the provisionally proposed Bridlington & Holderness, and finally back in Beverley & Holderness. Therefore the nearest Hull East would be to including the ‘mouth of the Humber’ is that its MP is likely still to be Karl Turner, identified by the former Speaker John Bercow as the noisiest member of the Commons in his time.
However, in the revised Boundary Commission proposals of November 2022, confirmed in June 2023, the idea of including South West Holderness was reversed. Instead Hull East would gain the urban North Carr ward from its neighbour Hull North, leaving it as an entirely urban seat, and indeed the only Hull constituency entirely within the city of Kingston upon Hull, and also, after the Final Report, the only one where the Hull name is not associated with another entity. This change further increases the social rented housing percentage and the disparity between non-manual occupations and routine and semi-routine jobs – which are now the 2nd highest anywhere in England and Wales. It has a very strong chance of remaining in Labour hands, as it looks quite likely that the Conservative party will not be able to replicate their historically outstanding performance here in the circumstances of the ‘Boris/Brexit’ contest. Labour should also remain ahead, if narrowly, when the calculations for the notional results for 2019 on the new boundaries are completed. Therefore the prospect has receded of “Labour gains Hull East” as a piquant flash across the screen for psephological connoisseurs, ‘badgers’, and nerds.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 380/575
Owner occupied 51.5% 490/575
Private rented 18.2% 286/575
Social rented 30.2% 34/575
White 96.1% 121/575
Black 0.8% 352/575
Asian 1.3% 473/575
Managerial & professional 18.8% 566/575
Routine & Semi-routine 37.7% 2/575
Degree level 18.6% 571/575
No qualifications 26.9% 21/575
Students 5.6% 278/575
2019 General Election: Kingston upon Hull East
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Karl Turner 12,713 39.2 −19.1
Conservative Rachel Storer 11,474 35.4 +5.5
Brexit Party Marten Hall 5,764 17.8 New
Liberal Democrats Bob Morgan 1,707 5.3 +1.9
Green Julia Brown 784 2.4 +1.1
Lab Majority 1,239 3.8 −24.6
Registered electors 65,754
Turnout 32,442 49.3 −6.2
Labour hold
Swings
12.3 Lab to C
18.4 Lab to Brexit
Boundary Changes
The new Kingston upon Hull East will be composed of
96.2% of Kingston upon Hull East
15.1% of Kingston upon Hull North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_510_Kingston%20upon%20Hull%20East_Portrait.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 14134 | 41.6% |
| Con | 11639 | 34.3% |
| Brexit | 5710 | 16.8% |
| LD | 1685 | 5.0% |
| Green | 785 | 2.3% |
| Lab Majority | 2495 | 7.4% |