Post by Robert Waller on Aug 17, 2023 12:21:10 GMT
Roy Jenkins was a very English Welshman who made a renowned political reappearance when he returned from Europe and in time won a seat in Scotland. However, before that byelection victory for his new political home, the Social Democratic Party, at Glasgow Hillhead in March 1982 he (and the new force led by the ‘Gang of Four’) had made a considerable impact in a previous high-profile contest. On 16 July 1981 the SDP’s first parliamentary election test, or opportunity, was created after the Labour MP for Warrington, Thomas Williams, accepted appointment as a High Court judge. This seems an unlikely reason for a byelection now, but they were more common in the decades when massive swings were less the expected outcome.
Jenkins did not win Warrington, but his achievement in securing more than 42% of the vote from a standing start and slashing the Labour majority to 1,759 did much to establish the SDP as a serious contender in electoral politics. A formal Alliance with the Liberal party had already been concluded in June 1981, and by October of that year it led both ‘major’ parties in opinion polls conducted by MORI and Gallup. In December the third regularly polling company NOP had also put Lib/SDP in the lead and MORI produced one poll which had the Alliance at 44% and Labour and Conservative 27% each.
ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
One of the reasons for the impact of the Warrington election was that it was seen as a very solid Labour seat, having been held continuously since 1945. It was of course retained by Doug Hoyle (the father of the current Speaker of the House of Commons) despite all the publicity being gained by Jenkins; and this was the seat that formed the core of Warrington North after the major boundary review that came into effect at the following general election in 1983. The boundaries under which the 1981 byelection were fought were actually rather tight to the core of the old town, with a total electorate at the time of less than 44,000. Warrington South was mainly created from territory south of the Mersey that had historically been in Cheshire and in the Runcorn county constituency. The numbers for the new North were made up of newer housing developments and villages that had previously been in the greatly oversized Newton seat. However the whole of Warrington North had been in Lancashire, and none in Cheshire, until the local government reforms in 1974.
Warrington North has not been radically changed again since its creation in 1983, and in the initial, revised and final boundary changes in the current review no changes are proposed except for minor tidying up due to local ward revisions. Being situated pretty much midway between Liverpool and Manchester, Warrington has excellent transport links: as well as lying on the main west coast railway line, it is located in a ‘motorway box’ consisting of the M6 to its east, M62 to the north and M56 (south). Its convenient location was one of the reasons why it was designated as a New Town in 1968, leading to an expansion of population that has eventually surpassed 170,000, which is why it justifies having two constituencies bear its name.
North includes the east end of the centre of the old industrial town, in Fairfield & Howley ward, for example Wharf Street on the north bank of the Mersey and the Coach House brewery, the latest incarnation of a long tradition of brewing in Warrington. There is also the inter war council estate of Orford, but North also extends to the ‘New Town’ housing developments spreading north-eastwards beyond the two Poulton wards to Poplars & Hulme. Even beyond Warrington itself the North division stretches east to Rixton & Woolston ward which reaches Glazebrook, fully a third of the way to Manchester. North-eastwards, the Birchwood ward not only encompasses ‘new’ neighbourhoods created by the Development Corporation like Gorse Covert, Oakwood and the quaintly named Locking Stumps, but also the village of Risley, the site of a remand centre (now a prison) frequently in the news.
The whole of Birchwood ward, like the bulk of Rixton & Woolston lies to the east of the M6, so outside the Warrington motorway box. The North constituency also extends north of the M62 to include two more wards. To the east is the largest ward of all by area, Culcheth Glazebury & Croft – which almost reaches Chat Moss, famous in the history of railway constructions as the most significant problem hampering the completion of George Stephenson's link between Manchester and Liverpool (if of interest, Chat Moss is mainly in the Astley Mosley Common Ward of the borough of Wigan, and in Leigh constituency). To the north west of the M62 is Burtonwood & Winwick. The former name will be familiar as the largest US air base in England of the Second World War after 1942, and after the war as a US Amy depot. The massive site still has many depots, in a way, including the Omega Business Park and hub and a giant Amazon warehouse, along with a major Royal Mail facility. Winwick too is a significant distribution centre, with its Quay business park.
Of course trading parks along with warehouses tend not to house voters. The predominant political tone of Warrington North in all its many guises is favourable to the Labour party. In the most recent, all-out, Warrington borough elections in May 2021 a Labour candidate finished top in all the wards except for Rixton & Woolston, which was split between two Tories and one of theirs, and Culcheth, Glazebury & Croft (all three Conservatives). One Conservative took the third and final place in Birchwood. There was none of the Liberal Democrat threat to be found in the wards that make up the Warrington South constituency, but often the Labour shares in May 2021 were not overwhelming.
This is not surprising in the context of the December 2019 parliamentary result. After an 8% swing, the Conservatives reduced Labour’s lead from 9,500 to just over 1,500 – the lowest by far since the constituency’s creation in 1983 – and a couple of hundred less even than Jenkins’s renowned ‘valiant defeat’ in the predecessor constituency. The Brexit candidate in 2019 did not do particularly well, finishing fourth and only just saving their deposit, but the result was certainly strongly influenced by Warrington North’s Brexit vote of 58% ‘leave’, which would of course have horrified that Europhile ex-President of the Commission. The Lab-C swing in Warrington South, which was far more evenly balanced in the referendum, was less than half as great.
North is, in essence, a white working class seat, with more residents in routine and semi routine occupations and more with no educational qualifications than degrees, at least at the time of the last available Census figures. Labour can at least draw heart from the fact that it was one of the 202 seats that they could win even in the hostile circumstances of 2019, and that the majority will probably recover in, say, 2024, to its historically comfortable levels. Barring some unforeseen development these parts of Warrington are unlikely to disturb the political landscape again, as they did in 1981.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.2% 287/575
Owner occupied 65.7% 298/575
Private rented 14.4% 462/575
Social rented 19.8% 152/575
White 94.5% 204/575
Black 0.8% 364/575
Asian 2.4% 363/575
Managerial & professional 30.7% 331/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.2% 128/575
Degree level 28.2% 390/575
No qualifications 18.8% 234/575
Students 5.1% 379/575
General Election 2019: Warrington North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Charlotte Nichols 20,611 44.2 −12.2
Conservative Wendy Maisey 19,102 40.9 +4.3
Liberal Democrats David Crowther 3,071 6.6 +4.1
Brexit Party Elizabeth Babade 2,626 5.6 New
Green Lyndsay McAteer 1,257 2.7 +1.4
Lab Majority 1,509 3.3 −16.5
2019 electorate 72,235
Turnout 46,667 64.6 -2.8
Labour hold
Swing 8.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Warrington North will be composed of
99.8% of Warrington North
Less than 0.1% of Warrington South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_274_Warrington%20North_Landscape.pdf
Notional results 2019 (Rallings and Thrasher)
Jenkins did not win Warrington, but his achievement in securing more than 42% of the vote from a standing start and slashing the Labour majority to 1,759 did much to establish the SDP as a serious contender in electoral politics. A formal Alliance with the Liberal party had already been concluded in June 1981, and by October of that year it led both ‘major’ parties in opinion polls conducted by MORI and Gallup. In December the third regularly polling company NOP had also put Lib/SDP in the lead and MORI produced one poll which had the Alliance at 44% and Labour and Conservative 27% each.
ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
One of the reasons for the impact of the Warrington election was that it was seen as a very solid Labour seat, having been held continuously since 1945. It was of course retained by Doug Hoyle (the father of the current Speaker of the House of Commons) despite all the publicity being gained by Jenkins; and this was the seat that formed the core of Warrington North after the major boundary review that came into effect at the following general election in 1983. The boundaries under which the 1981 byelection were fought were actually rather tight to the core of the old town, with a total electorate at the time of less than 44,000. Warrington South was mainly created from territory south of the Mersey that had historically been in Cheshire and in the Runcorn county constituency. The numbers for the new North were made up of newer housing developments and villages that had previously been in the greatly oversized Newton seat. However the whole of Warrington North had been in Lancashire, and none in Cheshire, until the local government reforms in 1974.
Warrington North has not been radically changed again since its creation in 1983, and in the initial, revised and final boundary changes in the current review no changes are proposed except for minor tidying up due to local ward revisions. Being situated pretty much midway between Liverpool and Manchester, Warrington has excellent transport links: as well as lying on the main west coast railway line, it is located in a ‘motorway box’ consisting of the M6 to its east, M62 to the north and M56 (south). Its convenient location was one of the reasons why it was designated as a New Town in 1968, leading to an expansion of population that has eventually surpassed 170,000, which is why it justifies having two constituencies bear its name.
North includes the east end of the centre of the old industrial town, in Fairfield & Howley ward, for example Wharf Street on the north bank of the Mersey and the Coach House brewery, the latest incarnation of a long tradition of brewing in Warrington. There is also the inter war council estate of Orford, but North also extends to the ‘New Town’ housing developments spreading north-eastwards beyond the two Poulton wards to Poplars & Hulme. Even beyond Warrington itself the North division stretches east to Rixton & Woolston ward which reaches Glazebrook, fully a third of the way to Manchester. North-eastwards, the Birchwood ward not only encompasses ‘new’ neighbourhoods created by the Development Corporation like Gorse Covert, Oakwood and the quaintly named Locking Stumps, but also the village of Risley, the site of a remand centre (now a prison) frequently in the news.
The whole of Birchwood ward, like the bulk of Rixton & Woolston lies to the east of the M6, so outside the Warrington motorway box. The North constituency also extends north of the M62 to include two more wards. To the east is the largest ward of all by area, Culcheth Glazebury & Croft – which almost reaches Chat Moss, famous in the history of railway constructions as the most significant problem hampering the completion of George Stephenson's link between Manchester and Liverpool (if of interest, Chat Moss is mainly in the Astley Mosley Common Ward of the borough of Wigan, and in Leigh constituency). To the north west of the M62 is Burtonwood & Winwick. The former name will be familiar as the largest US air base in England of the Second World War after 1942, and after the war as a US Amy depot. The massive site still has many depots, in a way, including the Omega Business Park and hub and a giant Amazon warehouse, along with a major Royal Mail facility. Winwick too is a significant distribution centre, with its Quay business park.
Of course trading parks along with warehouses tend not to house voters. The predominant political tone of Warrington North in all its many guises is favourable to the Labour party. In the most recent, all-out, Warrington borough elections in May 2021 a Labour candidate finished top in all the wards except for Rixton & Woolston, which was split between two Tories and one of theirs, and Culcheth, Glazebury & Croft (all three Conservatives). One Conservative took the third and final place in Birchwood. There was none of the Liberal Democrat threat to be found in the wards that make up the Warrington South constituency, but often the Labour shares in May 2021 were not overwhelming.
This is not surprising in the context of the December 2019 parliamentary result. After an 8% swing, the Conservatives reduced Labour’s lead from 9,500 to just over 1,500 – the lowest by far since the constituency’s creation in 1983 – and a couple of hundred less even than Jenkins’s renowned ‘valiant defeat’ in the predecessor constituency. The Brexit candidate in 2019 did not do particularly well, finishing fourth and only just saving their deposit, but the result was certainly strongly influenced by Warrington North’s Brexit vote of 58% ‘leave’, which would of course have horrified that Europhile ex-President of the Commission. The Lab-C swing in Warrington South, which was far more evenly balanced in the referendum, was less than half as great.
North is, in essence, a white working class seat, with more residents in routine and semi routine occupations and more with no educational qualifications than degrees, at least at the time of the last available Census figures. Labour can at least draw heart from the fact that it was one of the 202 seats that they could win even in the hostile circumstances of 2019, and that the majority will probably recover in, say, 2024, to its historically comfortable levels. Barring some unforeseen development these parts of Warrington are unlikely to disturb the political landscape again, as they did in 1981.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.2% 287/575
Owner occupied 65.7% 298/575
Private rented 14.4% 462/575
Social rented 19.8% 152/575
White 94.5% 204/575
Black 0.8% 364/575
Asian 2.4% 363/575
Managerial & professional 30.7% 331/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.2% 128/575
Degree level 28.2% 390/575
No qualifications 18.8% 234/575
Students 5.1% 379/575
General Election 2019: Warrington North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Charlotte Nichols 20,611 44.2 −12.2
Conservative Wendy Maisey 19,102 40.9 +4.3
Liberal Democrats David Crowther 3,071 6.6 +4.1
Brexit Party Elizabeth Babade 2,626 5.6 New
Green Lyndsay McAteer 1,257 2.7 +1.4
Lab Majority 1,509 3.3 −16.5
2019 electorate 72,235
Turnout 46,667 64.6 -2.8
Labour hold
Swing 8.3 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Warrington North will be composed of
99.8% of Warrington North
Less than 0.1% of Warrington South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_274_Warrington%20North_Landscape.pdf
Notional results 2019 (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 20567 | 44.2% |
| Con | 19054 | 40.9% |
| LD | 3055 | 2.9% |
| Brexit | 2617 | 1.5% |
| Green | 1253 | 1.3% |
| | ||
| Majority | 1513 | 3.3% |