Post by John Chanin on Aug 17, 2023 10:12:41 GMT
This seat covers the far north east end of Greater London. North of the A12 Colchester Road is the large LCC overspill estate of Harold Hill, a low-rise cottage estate with much right to buy (less than half the houses are still rented, many now privately). Between the A12 and the A127 Southend Road is Harold Wood, a typical area of suburban owner-occupied housing, with a station on the east coast mainline providing quick transport into Liverpool Street. South of the A127 to the east is Upminster - a prosperous suburb on the edge of London. Open country borders it to the south and east, where the village of North Ockendon is the only part of Greater London outside the M25. Upminster is the terminus of the District underground line, and also on the fast c2c service into the City of London. To the west is Hornchurch, which forms a continuous urban area with Romford. The housing here is older and more mixed, but it is still a suburban area. Outside Harold Hill almost all the housing is owner-occupied, and there is only a trace of the increase in private renting typical of London. This is a comfortable middle-class area, average nationally but below average for London in managerial and professional staff, but not with a high proportion of people with degrees. The seat is very white for London, but as elsewhere in the suburbs the ethnic minority population is growing as people move out of the inner city in search of an affordable place to buy, and there is now a large asian population, predominantly of Indian descent, in Emerson Park on the edge of Romford.
The 2010 boundary changes reduced Havering borough from 3 seats to 2.5. The Hornchurch seat was abolished, with the two central Hornchurch wards added to the Upminster seat. Upminster on its creation in 1974 was seen as a marginal, but rapidly shifted to a safe Conservative seat until falling to Labour on a 15.5% swing in the 1997 landslide. This aberration was corrected in 2001 as this was one of the five seats nationally regained by the Conservatives. The Labour strength has always been in Harold Hill, whose presence made the old Romford seat Labour in the 1950s and 1960s. The two wards covering this area are the only wards in Havering held by Labour. However as in other old peripheral council estates Labour are not dominant in the same way as they used to be, and both wards were won by UKIP in 2014. Apart from Harold Hill all wards except Emerson Park are won by Residents Groups, but the supposition is that the Conservatives are stronger in Upminster than in Hornchurch when it comes to parliamentary elections.
Havering provided something of a conundrum for the Boundary Commission, as there was no good solution using whole wards. Their initial proposal to move Emerson Park, traditionally part of Hornchurch, albeit part of a continuous urban area, to Romford was not popular. Eventually this seat was brought down to size by the removal of 4000 voters from the corners of 3 wards. Most unusually this reflects new ward boundaries, which only came in after the operative date from which the Boundary Commission works, but this was an eminently sensible decision, avoiding major dislocation. This small change will have no partisan political effect.
Like the neighbouring south Essex seats, this became a close 3-way marginal at the 2024 election, with the Conservative vote halving, and Reform narrowly beating Labour for second place. The MP Julia Lopez, a former SPAD and Tower Hamlets councillor first elected in 2017, just held on.
Census data: Owner-occupied 71% (144/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (528th), social rented 16% (268th).
: White 80%(409th), Black 7%(95th), South Asian 6%(166th), Mixed 3%(186th), Other 4%(224th)
: Managerial & professional 39% (253rd), Routine & Semi-routine 23% (431st)
: Degree 29% (363rd), Minimal qualifications 31% (182nd)
: Students 6% (247th) , Over 65: 19% (292nd)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Hornchurch & Upminster
95% of the old seat is in the new one, with 3% going to Dagenham & Rainham, and 2% to Romford.
The 2010 boundary changes reduced Havering borough from 3 seats to 2.5. The Hornchurch seat was abolished, with the two central Hornchurch wards added to the Upminster seat. Upminster on its creation in 1974 was seen as a marginal, but rapidly shifted to a safe Conservative seat until falling to Labour on a 15.5% swing in the 1997 landslide. This aberration was corrected in 2001 as this was one of the five seats nationally regained by the Conservatives. The Labour strength has always been in Harold Hill, whose presence made the old Romford seat Labour in the 1950s and 1960s. The two wards covering this area are the only wards in Havering held by Labour. However as in other old peripheral council estates Labour are not dominant in the same way as they used to be, and both wards were won by UKIP in 2014. Apart from Harold Hill all wards except Emerson Park are won by Residents Groups, but the supposition is that the Conservatives are stronger in Upminster than in Hornchurch when it comes to parliamentary elections.
Havering provided something of a conundrum for the Boundary Commission, as there was no good solution using whole wards. Their initial proposal to move Emerson Park, traditionally part of Hornchurch, albeit part of a continuous urban area, to Romford was not popular. Eventually this seat was brought down to size by the removal of 4000 voters from the corners of 3 wards. Most unusually this reflects new ward boundaries, which only came in after the operative date from which the Boundary Commission works, but this was an eminently sensible decision, avoiding major dislocation. This small change will have no partisan political effect.
Like the neighbouring south Essex seats, this became a close 3-way marginal at the 2024 election, with the Conservative vote halving, and Reform narrowly beating Labour for second place. The MP Julia Lopez, a former SPAD and Tower Hamlets councillor first elected in 2017, just held on.
Census data: Owner-occupied 71% (144/575 in England & Wales), private rented 13% (528th), social rented 16% (268th).
: White 80%(409th), Black 7%(95th), South Asian 6%(166th), Mixed 3%(186th), Other 4%(224th)
: Managerial & professional 39% (253rd), Routine & Semi-routine 23% (431st)
: Degree 29% (363rd), Minimal qualifications 31% (182nd)
: Students 6% (247th) , Over 65: 19% (292nd)
Boundaries : The new seat is made up of 100% from Hornchurch & Upminster
95% of the old seat is in the new one, with 3% going to Dagenham & Rainham, and 2% to Romford.
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Notional | % | 2024 | % | |
| Conservative | 33,750 | 60.2 | 35,495 | 65.8 | 33,404 | 65.4 | 15,260 | 32.5 |
| Labour | 16,027 | 28.6 | 12,187 | 22.6 | 11,669 | 22.9 | 12,939 | 27.6 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1,371 | 2.4 | 3,862 | 7.2 | 3,634 | 7.1 | 2,381 | 5.1 |
| UKIP/Reform | 3,502 | 6.2 | 13,317 | 28.4 | ||||
| Green | 1,077 | 1.9 | 1,920 | 3.6 | 1,836 | 3.6 | 2,620 | 5.6 |
| Other | 380 | 0.7 | 510 | 0.9 | 510 | 1.0 | 394 | 0.8 |
| Majority | 17,723 | 31.6 | 23,308 | 43.2 | 21,735 | 42.6 | 1,943 | 4.1 |