Post by Robert Waller on Aug 17, 2023 0:15:53 GMT
South is the more electorally interesting of the two Warrington constituencies. Since their creation as separate seats in 1983, South has changed hands between Labour and Conservative four times, in 1992, 2010, 2017 and 2019; North has remained safe for Labour throughout. Warrington North has always seemed anomalously placed within the county of Cheshire since the local government reforms of 1974, as every part of it had been in the historic county of Lancashire; indeed the Redcliffe-Maud report itself suggested placing Warrington in either Merseyside or Greater Manchester, and its social, economic and political characteristics all fitted in well with that. However South is a different matter, as a substantial section within its boundaries is very much ‘Cheshire’, and that portion has indeed played a significant role in its election results.
The voters of Warrington South are distributed fairly evenly north and south of the winding river Mersey, or more clearly north and south of the arrow-straight line of the Manchester Ship Canal. In the ‘true Cheshire’ section are the Warrington unitary borough wards of (from west to east) Appleton, Stockton Heath, Grappenhall, Lymm North & Thelwall and Lymm South, adding up to around 34,000 electors in 2022. These are predominantly middle class and owner occupied communities. In 2011 Appleton’s professional and managerial share was 49%, Grappenhall’s over 45%, and Stockton Heath and the Lymm wards’ over 50%. The owner occupied percentages ranged from 79 to 89. At local elections, these are not Tory strongholds. For decades the Liberal Democrats have proved very effective, and in the most recent borough elections in 2021 the only Conservative wins came in Appleton and one seat in divided Lymm South; eight Liberal Democrat councillors were returned in four wards. However the best the LDs (or their predecessors) have ever done in Warrington South at Westminster level is 27.5% in 2010 and 27.3% in 1983, and they were in third place in both those LD / Alliance high water marks. They have probably suffered from the overall two-party-marginal nature of the contests in Warrington South.
Labour, as implied, is not a strong force south of the river/canal. Their best ward is Lymm North & Thelwall but even there their top candidate only reached 22% in May 2021. Things are very different up north in historic Lancashire (and indeed historic Warrington; all the southern wards were in Lymm Urban or Runcorn Rural districts, and the Runcorn county constituency of Cheshire, before 1983). In 2021 Labour won the wards of Bewsey & Whitecross, Latchford East and Latchford West, Great Sankey North & Whittle Hall and Great Sankey South, mostly by considerable margins. They missed out only on Penketh & Cuerdley -but that was to a slate of three independents and Labour were strongest among the competitors sporting party labels - and conceding the third elected seat in Chapelford & Old Hall to a Conservative.
There is actually more heterogeneity in the characteristics of the 50,000 or so electors in the northern sections. For example much of the town centre is included in the Bewsey & Whitecross ward: for example both Warrington railway stations, Bank Quay and Central and the grandly named Warrington Bus Interchange, plus the concrete jungles of the Golden Square Shopping Centre and the Cockhedge Shopping Park, and the bowl of the Halliwell Jones stadium of the Warrington Wolves rugby league team. Rugby league is very much the sport here; remarkably for a town now with over 170,000 inhabitants the top soccer teams currently compete at the sixth and seventh tiers of football (respectively Warrington Town, ‘The Wire’ after a historically prominent local industry, and Warrington Rylands). The heart of Warrington is not a thing of beauty.
Also in the South constituency are the two Latchford wards, set on a kind of island between the Mersey and Ship Canal, a mixture of surviving old terraces around Oldham Street and Cumberland Street and inter war semis, owner occupied around Irwell Road in the west and council built in the east, including in the community of Westy. Though predominantly working class, all three of these ‘inner city northern’ MSOAs were still at least 90% white at the time of the 2021 census.
Warrington was designated in the second wave of post war New Towns in 1968, and has greatly expanded to the north, west and east. This can be seen within the South seat in for example Great Sankey North ward, 87% owner occupied but not up-market, and in the modern estate patterns in Chapelford & Old Hall. It is the western part of the ‘New Town’ element that is included in South, though it does not reach as far north as the M62 or the (ill-named on this flat plain) Skyline Drive at any point. The final section of this very variegated constituency is centred on Penketh, which has always considered itself a separate (Lancashire) community from Warrington itself, at least three miles west of the ‘downtown’ on the flat plain of the Mersey, with a skyline dominated by Fiddlers Ferry power station (closed in 2020) near Cuerdley Cross. This feels a long way from Latchford and Westy, and even further from the Cheshire suburbs with which our circumambulation of the seat commenced, which may influence the Independent local election success mentioned above..
It all adds up to a tight and vital marginal parliamentary division. Evening out all the internal discrepancies and character changes in seat-wide statistics, it would seem that if Warrington South were in the South of England it would not have been held by the Conservatives for less than 20 of the past 39 years. With 72% of the housing stock in the owner occupied sector, only about one in five seats in the United Kingdom are further up that list. Over 92% of residents were white. The managerial and professional percentage exceeded that of, say, Witham or NW Hampshire. Labour also did better than might be expected even in 2019. The percentage swing was less than average – 3.9%; enough for Andy Carter to take the sea from Labour's Faisal Rashid, but far from enough to make it look even close to safe. Its Leave percentage on the 2016 referendum is estimated to be only 51%, and it is in the top quartile as far as education to degree level is concerned. These are counter-indicators to Conservative success in the current political climate; and things are about to become even more ropey for the Tories.
Warrington has been expanding for decades now and, situated in its ‘motorway box’ between the M62, M6 and M56, has become a major modern commercial hub and a significant population centre as one of the largest towns in England. It is still not dignified with city status, despite being among the 39 that applied for the 2022 Jubilee elevations (there is some resentment that the two Cheshire applicants, Crewe as well, lost out when Wrexham in a nearby part of North Wales joined St Asaph -promoted in 2012 – as a city). More will be said about the nature of Warrington’s economy in the entry for the North constituency.
However the continued development means that Warrington South is now well over the electoral quota, and the Boundary Commission has suggested removing some of the ‘Cheshire’ segment in the form of most of the two Lymm wards, excluding, after the inquiry process, Thelwall, the site of the notable viaduct that so many have passed over on the M6, as Thelwall was seen as "an intrinsic part of central Warrington, separated from the rural market-town of Lymm by empty land and the M6 motorway". Lymm would now be returned to its ancestral county within the ‘deep Cheshire’ Tatton constituency. As mentioned above, Lymm has favoured Liberal Democrats in local elections, but its departure will certainly weaken the Conservatives too, and given that Carter’s 2019 majority was only 2,010, it might even mean that the notional figures suggest that the new South will be classed as a ’Labour win’ last time (Rallings and Thrasher's 'official' figures for the media, for example, suggests a Labour notional majority of 65 votes, or 0.1% of the votes cast, which really is too close to call).
This is an exception to the general rule that boundary changes strengthen the Conservative position. In May 2023 Andy Carter announced that he would not seek a second term in Warrington South. In any case Labour will need to win many more difficult key target marginals than this to secure government of the UK.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 18.5 % 313/575
Owner occupied 71.7% 134/575
Private rented 16.4% 365/575
Social rented 11.9% 438/575
White 92.3% 253/575
Black 0.8% 359/575
Asian 4.3% 283/575
Managerial & professional 37.9% 153/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.2% 300/575
Degree level 35.5% 191/575
No qualifications 15.1% 418/575
Students 5.5% 309/575
General Election 2019: Warrington South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Andy Carter 28,187 45.5 +1.2
Labour Faisal Rashid 26,177 42.3 -6.1
Liberal Democrats Ryan Bate Sr 5,732 9.3 +3.9
Brexit Party Clare Aspinall 1,635 2.6 New
SDP Kevin Hickson 168 0.3 New
C Majority 2,010 3.2
2019 electorate 86,015
Turnout 61,899 72.0 -0.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 3.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Warrington South will be composed of
88.5% of Warrington South
0.2% of Warrington North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_275_Warrington%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
The voters of Warrington South are distributed fairly evenly north and south of the winding river Mersey, or more clearly north and south of the arrow-straight line of the Manchester Ship Canal. In the ‘true Cheshire’ section are the Warrington unitary borough wards of (from west to east) Appleton, Stockton Heath, Grappenhall, Lymm North & Thelwall and Lymm South, adding up to around 34,000 electors in 2022. These are predominantly middle class and owner occupied communities. In 2011 Appleton’s professional and managerial share was 49%, Grappenhall’s over 45%, and Stockton Heath and the Lymm wards’ over 50%. The owner occupied percentages ranged from 79 to 89. At local elections, these are not Tory strongholds. For decades the Liberal Democrats have proved very effective, and in the most recent borough elections in 2021 the only Conservative wins came in Appleton and one seat in divided Lymm South; eight Liberal Democrat councillors were returned in four wards. However the best the LDs (or their predecessors) have ever done in Warrington South at Westminster level is 27.5% in 2010 and 27.3% in 1983, and they were in third place in both those LD / Alliance high water marks. They have probably suffered from the overall two-party-marginal nature of the contests in Warrington South.
Labour, as implied, is not a strong force south of the river/canal. Their best ward is Lymm North & Thelwall but even there their top candidate only reached 22% in May 2021. Things are very different up north in historic Lancashire (and indeed historic Warrington; all the southern wards were in Lymm Urban or Runcorn Rural districts, and the Runcorn county constituency of Cheshire, before 1983). In 2021 Labour won the wards of Bewsey & Whitecross, Latchford East and Latchford West, Great Sankey North & Whittle Hall and Great Sankey South, mostly by considerable margins. They missed out only on Penketh & Cuerdley -but that was to a slate of three independents and Labour were strongest among the competitors sporting party labels - and conceding the third elected seat in Chapelford & Old Hall to a Conservative.
There is actually more heterogeneity in the characteristics of the 50,000 or so electors in the northern sections. For example much of the town centre is included in the Bewsey & Whitecross ward: for example both Warrington railway stations, Bank Quay and Central and the grandly named Warrington Bus Interchange, plus the concrete jungles of the Golden Square Shopping Centre and the Cockhedge Shopping Park, and the bowl of the Halliwell Jones stadium of the Warrington Wolves rugby league team. Rugby league is very much the sport here; remarkably for a town now with over 170,000 inhabitants the top soccer teams currently compete at the sixth and seventh tiers of football (respectively Warrington Town, ‘The Wire’ after a historically prominent local industry, and Warrington Rylands). The heart of Warrington is not a thing of beauty.
Also in the South constituency are the two Latchford wards, set on a kind of island between the Mersey and Ship Canal, a mixture of surviving old terraces around Oldham Street and Cumberland Street and inter war semis, owner occupied around Irwell Road in the west and council built in the east, including in the community of Westy. Though predominantly working class, all three of these ‘inner city northern’ MSOAs were still at least 90% white at the time of the 2021 census.
Warrington was designated in the second wave of post war New Towns in 1968, and has greatly expanded to the north, west and east. This can be seen within the South seat in for example Great Sankey North ward, 87% owner occupied but not up-market, and in the modern estate patterns in Chapelford & Old Hall. It is the western part of the ‘New Town’ element that is included in South, though it does not reach as far north as the M62 or the (ill-named on this flat plain) Skyline Drive at any point. The final section of this very variegated constituency is centred on Penketh, which has always considered itself a separate (Lancashire) community from Warrington itself, at least three miles west of the ‘downtown’ on the flat plain of the Mersey, with a skyline dominated by Fiddlers Ferry power station (closed in 2020) near Cuerdley Cross. This feels a long way from Latchford and Westy, and even further from the Cheshire suburbs with which our circumambulation of the seat commenced, which may influence the Independent local election success mentioned above..
It all adds up to a tight and vital marginal parliamentary division. Evening out all the internal discrepancies and character changes in seat-wide statistics, it would seem that if Warrington South were in the South of England it would not have been held by the Conservatives for less than 20 of the past 39 years. With 72% of the housing stock in the owner occupied sector, only about one in five seats in the United Kingdom are further up that list. Over 92% of residents were white. The managerial and professional percentage exceeded that of, say, Witham or NW Hampshire. Labour also did better than might be expected even in 2019. The percentage swing was less than average – 3.9%; enough for Andy Carter to take the sea from Labour's Faisal Rashid, but far from enough to make it look even close to safe. Its Leave percentage on the 2016 referendum is estimated to be only 51%, and it is in the top quartile as far as education to degree level is concerned. These are counter-indicators to Conservative success in the current political climate; and things are about to become even more ropey for the Tories.
Warrington has been expanding for decades now and, situated in its ‘motorway box’ between the M62, M6 and M56, has become a major modern commercial hub and a significant population centre as one of the largest towns in England. It is still not dignified with city status, despite being among the 39 that applied for the 2022 Jubilee elevations (there is some resentment that the two Cheshire applicants, Crewe as well, lost out when Wrexham in a nearby part of North Wales joined St Asaph -promoted in 2012 – as a city). More will be said about the nature of Warrington’s economy in the entry for the North constituency.
However the continued development means that Warrington South is now well over the electoral quota, and the Boundary Commission has suggested removing some of the ‘Cheshire’ segment in the form of most of the two Lymm wards, excluding, after the inquiry process, Thelwall, the site of the notable viaduct that so many have passed over on the M6, as Thelwall was seen as "an intrinsic part of central Warrington, separated from the rural market-town of Lymm by empty land and the M6 motorway". Lymm would now be returned to its ancestral county within the ‘deep Cheshire’ Tatton constituency. As mentioned above, Lymm has favoured Liberal Democrats in local elections, but its departure will certainly weaken the Conservatives too, and given that Carter’s 2019 majority was only 2,010, it might even mean that the notional figures suggest that the new South will be classed as a ’Labour win’ last time (Rallings and Thrasher's 'official' figures for the media, for example, suggests a Labour notional majority of 65 votes, or 0.1% of the votes cast, which really is too close to call).
This is an exception to the general rule that boundary changes strengthen the Conservative position. In May 2023 Andy Carter announced that he would not seek a second term in Warrington South. In any case Labour will need to win many more difficult key target marginals than this to secure government of the UK.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 18.5 % 313/575
Owner occupied 71.7% 134/575
Private rented 16.4% 365/575
Social rented 11.9% 438/575
White 92.3% 253/575
Black 0.8% 359/575
Asian 4.3% 283/575
Managerial & professional 37.9% 153/575
Routine & Semi-routine 23.2% 300/575
Degree level 35.5% 191/575
No qualifications 15.1% 418/575
Students 5.5% 309/575
General Election 2019: Warrington South
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Andy Carter 28,187 45.5 +1.2
Labour Faisal Rashid 26,177 42.3 -6.1
Liberal Democrats Ryan Bate Sr 5,732 9.3 +3.9
Brexit Party Clare Aspinall 1,635 2.6 New
SDP Kevin Hickson 168 0.3 New
C Majority 2,010 3.2
2019 electorate 86,015
Turnout 61,899 72.0 -0.4
Conservative gain from Labour
Swing 3.7 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
Warrington South will be composed of
88.5% of Warrington South
0.2% of Warrington North
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-west/North%20West_275_Warrington%20South_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 24073 | 44.5% |
| Con | 24008 | 44.4% |
| LD | 4415 | 8.2% |
| Brexit | 1461 | 2.7% |
| Green | 4 | 0.0% |
| Oth | 168 | 0.3% |
| Majority | 65 | 0.1% |