Post by Robert Waller on Aug 16, 2023 21:32:17 GMT
Eastern England has been a significant growth area for several decades now, and therefore entitled to extra parliamentary representation in the Boundary Commission's periodic reviews. After initially suggesting that a new and extra seat should be shared between Suffolk and Essex, in the revised recommendations published in November 2022, confirmed in the final report in June 2023, a re-think meant that the county border to be crossed was that of Suffolk and Norfolk – and the division nominated to donate the latter’s contribution is South Norfolk, while retaining a seat of that name as well.
Like its neighbour, the SW Norfolk constituency where the MP was Liz Truss, South Norfolk has a history of marginality but apparently became very safe for the Conservative party. Unlike South West, this seat was not won by Labour in the 1950s (though Christopher Mayhew did hold it between 1945 and 1950 and agricultural trade unionist George Edwards twice won as far back as the early 1920s). However the margins of the Conservative victories in the ‘50s were consistently slender: somewhat over 2,000 and 3,000 in 1950 and 1951, then a mere 865 in the January 1955 byelection caused by the expulsion of Peter Baker and his seven year jail sentence for forgery. The new MP John Hill then only won by 1,475 in the general election later in 1955 and by 2,733 in 1959. Although it did not fall to Labour as they formed a government in the 1960s, the majorities remained thin; Hill held on by only 119 votes in 1966. From that point on, however, the Tory lead ballooned, surpassing 19,000 in 1979 and 17,000 in 1992. By the time of the first Blair landslide, the former holder of three Cabinet posts John Macgregor still won by well over 7,000 - the second highest majority in 1997 was Gillian Shepherd’s 2,464 next door in South West. In December 2019, Richard Bacon’s majority for the Tories was over 21,000, the highest ever figure in a South Norfolk contest.
Of course there have been boundary changes through the history of the seat, for example the town of Thetford was included between 1950 and 1983, but these have not been very important in explaining South Norfolk’s transition away from marginality. More significant has been the decline of agricultural trade unionism, which was unusually strong in the county of Norfolk, as indeed agriculture itself has become both less labour-intensive and less dominant in the economy. By the time of the 2011 census only 3.1% of all workers in South Norfolk were employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing – though that was still in the top decile of constituencies at 61st place in the rankings. Over four times as many were working in human health and social care activities, for example. Norfolk has also swung towards the Conservatives not only as the political cleavages here have become more aligned with those nationally, but also with that large number of incoming residents which has stimulated the increasing number of constituencies.
South Norfolk is situated entirely inland from the coast, west and south of Norwich and with a long border with Suffolk. It is based on the small towns of Diss, Harleston and Loddon, and numerous villages. Another centre of population lies in the Norwich suburbs, such as Old Costessey and Cringleford, where the growth of the city has in some places effectively burst its borders into South Norfolk District. Indeed some of these enlarged villages are as populous as the towns in the more rural part of the seat: both Diss and Old Costessey have over 7,000 residents, and Cringleford with 3,000 is a little larger than Loddon. One perhaps unlikely concern to be found within South Norfolk (old and new boundaries) is the Lotus car complex at the hamlet of Hethel in Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross ward; set on a former airfield there is as well as the factory also a test track, a driving school and even a visitor facility.
www.lotuscars.com/en-GB/factory-tours
Lotus may no longer be involved in the astronomically expensive international big business that is Formula One racing, but they will forever be known for their six drivers’ championships and an extra constructors’ crown.
Generally the Liberal Democrats have been the main challengers to the Conservatives in municipal elections. In the most recent, all out, elections for the South Norfolk authority in May 2023, though, Labour made the greatest advance. The overall number of councillors returned was 24 Conservatives (down 11 since 2019), 11 Liberal Democrats (up one) and 9 Labour (up eight). Some wards are not in the constituency of the same name, but of those which are, the LDs won Ditchingham & Earsham (two councillors), Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (three) and Old Costessey (two). Labour’s successes within the constituency were in Loddon & Chedgrave ward, split with the Tories, Harleston (ditto), Hethersett (ditto), Cringleford (yet again ditto), Old Costessey (split with the LDs) and, the only ward they did not share, Stratton. These results are probably largely due to local and personal factors, as there are no discernible correlations with demographic variables: Old Costessey does not have higher educational qualifications than average, for example despite not being far from East Anglia University. Loddon is only a little more working class than the norm for the constituency, Cringleford suburban Norwich, and Stratton is rural. In the May 2021 Norfolk county council elections, the Conservatives won easily everywhere except Costessey, which was narrowly taken by the Liberal Democrats – but that county electoral division is split between constituencies because New Costessey has been included in the Norwich South seat since 1997. Labour again did reasonably well only in Loddon.
Despite the local election pattern, the Liberal Democrats finished third in the South Norfolk constituency in the three general elections between 2015 and 2019 – in the ;atter year they only managed 14% to Labour’s 24%. They and their predecessors, the Liberals, had been runners up in seven successive contests between 1983 and 2010 inclusive; indeed that was probably why South Norfolk was able so effectively to resist the New Labour onslaught in 1997 and 2001, when the opposition was fairly evenly divided with the LDs. South Norfolk was also rather evenly divided between Remain and Leave in the 2016 referendum (the whole council reported around 51% for Leave), which was a strong factor in a rather static December 2019 result, with the Tory share remaining almost unaltered and a six percent swing from Labour to the LDs, which greater enthusiasm for ‘remaining’ will have appealed more to some than Labour’s equivocation.
There were major boundary changes before the 2024 election. Six wards were transferred out of South Norfolk and into a new and extra constituency that crosses the border with Suffolk, to be called Waveney Valley. The total electorate involved was around 28,500. These are the wards of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole, Bressingham & Burston, Bunwell, Diss & Roydon, Ditchingham & Earsham and Harleston. Thus two of the small towns in the seat (Diss and Harleston) were removed. However, as South Norfolk’s electorate needed to be partially topped up in compensation, some territory was added in exchange, from the Mid Norfolk seat. This was essentially the town of Wymondham, already in the South Norfolk district, and in the South Norfolk constituency until 2010. Wymondham (pronounced Windham), with its population of over 16,000 in 2021 (and growing) will now clearly be the largest in the seat. By the time of the May 2023 local elections redrawn wards were already in use, and Wymondham is covered by two wards, North and South. The Liberal Democrats won both. Overall, though, both the redrawn South Norfolk and the new Waveney Valley were expected to be safely Tory in parliamentary terms. In South Norfolk the numerical majority was only slightly reduced to notionally less than 20,000.
This was not what happened in 2024. Waveney Valley was targeted by the Greens and fell. South Norfolk, like its neighbour South West, was gained by Labour, though of course it received much less publicity given that it was not the seat of a controversial recent Prime Minister. Unlike the instance of Liz Truss, the issue was not clouded by the relative success of a hostile Independent candidate, but here too Reform's substantial percentage made an impact, though Labour did also improve by 11.6% in their own right - to achieve their first victory in the South Norfolk seat since a previous landslide in 1945.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 22.4% 152/575
Owner occupied 75.4% 51/575
Private rented 13.5% 506/575
Social rented 11.1% 473/575
White 94.7 % 200/575
Black 0.9% 336/575
Asian 2.2% 376/575
Managerial & professional 39.8% 112/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.2% 409/575
Degree level 35.2% 199/575
No qualifications 14.9% 428/575
Students 4.7% 456/575
General Election 2024: South Norfolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ben Goldsborough 17,353 35.0 +11.6
Conservative Poppy Simister-Thomas 14,527 29.3 −27.2
Reform UK Chris Harrison 7,583 15.3 N/A
Liberal Democrats Christopher Brown 5,746 11.6 −5.4
Green Catherine Rowett 3,987 8.0 +4.8
Independent Paco Davila 254 0.5 N/A
SDP Jason Maguire 129 0.3 N/A
Lab Majority 2,826 5.7 N/A
Turnout 49,579 66.9 –7.4
Registered electors 74,135
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 19.4 C to Lab
General Election 2019: South Norfolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Richard Bacon 36,258 58.0 -0.2
Labour Beth Jones 14,983 24.0 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Christopher Brown 8,744 14.0 +5.7
Green Ben Price 2,499 4.0 +1.5
C Majority 21,275 34.0 +6.7
2019 electorate 86,214
Turnout 62,484 72.5 -1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new South Norfolk is composed of
65.2% of South Norfolk
16.4% of Mid Norfolk
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_093_South%20Norfolk_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results (Rallings & Thrasher)
Like its neighbour, the SW Norfolk constituency where the MP was Liz Truss, South Norfolk has a history of marginality but apparently became very safe for the Conservative party. Unlike South West, this seat was not won by Labour in the 1950s (though Christopher Mayhew did hold it between 1945 and 1950 and agricultural trade unionist George Edwards twice won as far back as the early 1920s). However the margins of the Conservative victories in the ‘50s were consistently slender: somewhat over 2,000 and 3,000 in 1950 and 1951, then a mere 865 in the January 1955 byelection caused by the expulsion of Peter Baker and his seven year jail sentence for forgery. The new MP John Hill then only won by 1,475 in the general election later in 1955 and by 2,733 in 1959. Although it did not fall to Labour as they formed a government in the 1960s, the majorities remained thin; Hill held on by only 119 votes in 1966. From that point on, however, the Tory lead ballooned, surpassing 19,000 in 1979 and 17,000 in 1992. By the time of the first Blair landslide, the former holder of three Cabinet posts John Macgregor still won by well over 7,000 - the second highest majority in 1997 was Gillian Shepherd’s 2,464 next door in South West. In December 2019, Richard Bacon’s majority for the Tories was over 21,000, the highest ever figure in a South Norfolk contest.
Of course there have been boundary changes through the history of the seat, for example the town of Thetford was included between 1950 and 1983, but these have not been very important in explaining South Norfolk’s transition away from marginality. More significant has been the decline of agricultural trade unionism, which was unusually strong in the county of Norfolk, as indeed agriculture itself has become both less labour-intensive and less dominant in the economy. By the time of the 2011 census only 3.1% of all workers in South Norfolk were employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing – though that was still in the top decile of constituencies at 61st place in the rankings. Over four times as many were working in human health and social care activities, for example. Norfolk has also swung towards the Conservatives not only as the political cleavages here have become more aligned with those nationally, but also with that large number of incoming residents which has stimulated the increasing number of constituencies.
South Norfolk is situated entirely inland from the coast, west and south of Norwich and with a long border with Suffolk. It is based on the small towns of Diss, Harleston and Loddon, and numerous villages. Another centre of population lies in the Norwich suburbs, such as Old Costessey and Cringleford, where the growth of the city has in some places effectively burst its borders into South Norfolk District. Indeed some of these enlarged villages are as populous as the towns in the more rural part of the seat: both Diss and Old Costessey have over 7,000 residents, and Cringleford with 3,000 is a little larger than Loddon. One perhaps unlikely concern to be found within South Norfolk (old and new boundaries) is the Lotus car complex at the hamlet of Hethel in Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross ward; set on a former airfield there is as well as the factory also a test track, a driving school and even a visitor facility.
www.lotuscars.com/en-GB/factory-tours
Lotus may no longer be involved in the astronomically expensive international big business that is Formula One racing, but they will forever be known for their six drivers’ championships and an extra constructors’ crown.
Generally the Liberal Democrats have been the main challengers to the Conservatives in municipal elections. In the most recent, all out, elections for the South Norfolk authority in May 2023, though, Labour made the greatest advance. The overall number of councillors returned was 24 Conservatives (down 11 since 2019), 11 Liberal Democrats (up one) and 9 Labour (up eight). Some wards are not in the constituency of the same name, but of those which are, the LDs won Ditchingham & Earsham (two councillors), Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross (three) and Old Costessey (two). Labour’s successes within the constituency were in Loddon & Chedgrave ward, split with the Tories, Harleston (ditto), Hethersett (ditto), Cringleford (yet again ditto), Old Costessey (split with the LDs) and, the only ward they did not share, Stratton. These results are probably largely due to local and personal factors, as there are no discernible correlations with demographic variables: Old Costessey does not have higher educational qualifications than average, for example despite not being far from East Anglia University. Loddon is only a little more working class than the norm for the constituency, Cringleford suburban Norwich, and Stratton is rural. In the May 2021 Norfolk county council elections, the Conservatives won easily everywhere except Costessey, which was narrowly taken by the Liberal Democrats – but that county electoral division is split between constituencies because New Costessey has been included in the Norwich South seat since 1997. Labour again did reasonably well only in Loddon.
Despite the local election pattern, the Liberal Democrats finished third in the South Norfolk constituency in the three general elections between 2015 and 2019 – in the ;atter year they only managed 14% to Labour’s 24%. They and their predecessors, the Liberals, had been runners up in seven successive contests between 1983 and 2010 inclusive; indeed that was probably why South Norfolk was able so effectively to resist the New Labour onslaught in 1997 and 2001, when the opposition was fairly evenly divided with the LDs. South Norfolk was also rather evenly divided between Remain and Leave in the 2016 referendum (the whole council reported around 51% for Leave), which was a strong factor in a rather static December 2019 result, with the Tory share remaining almost unaltered and a six percent swing from Labour to the LDs, which greater enthusiasm for ‘remaining’ will have appealed more to some than Labour’s equivocation.
There were major boundary changes before the 2024 election. Six wards were transferred out of South Norfolk and into a new and extra constituency that crosses the border with Suffolk, to be called Waveney Valley. The total electorate involved was around 28,500. These are the wards of Beck Vale, Dickleburgh & Scole, Bressingham & Burston, Bunwell, Diss & Roydon, Ditchingham & Earsham and Harleston. Thus two of the small towns in the seat (Diss and Harleston) were removed. However, as South Norfolk’s electorate needed to be partially topped up in compensation, some territory was added in exchange, from the Mid Norfolk seat. This was essentially the town of Wymondham, already in the South Norfolk district, and in the South Norfolk constituency until 2010. Wymondham (pronounced Windham), with its population of over 16,000 in 2021 (and growing) will now clearly be the largest in the seat. By the time of the May 2023 local elections redrawn wards were already in use, and Wymondham is covered by two wards, North and South. The Liberal Democrats won both. Overall, though, both the redrawn South Norfolk and the new Waveney Valley were expected to be safely Tory in parliamentary terms. In South Norfolk the numerical majority was only slightly reduced to notionally less than 20,000.
This was not what happened in 2024. Waveney Valley was targeted by the Greens and fell. South Norfolk, like its neighbour South West, was gained by Labour, though of course it received much less publicity given that it was not the seat of a controversial recent Prime Minister. Unlike the instance of Liz Truss, the issue was not clouded by the relative success of a hostile Independent candidate, but here too Reform's substantial percentage made an impact, though Labour did also improve by 11.6% in their own right - to achieve their first victory in the South Norfolk seat since a previous landslide in 1945.
2021 Census
Age 65+ 22.4% 152/575
Owner occupied 75.4% 51/575
Private rented 13.5% 506/575
Social rented 11.1% 473/575
White 94.7 % 200/575
Black 0.9% 336/575
Asian 2.2% 376/575
Managerial & professional 39.8% 112/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.2% 409/575
Degree level 35.2% 199/575
No qualifications 14.9% 428/575
Students 4.7% 456/575
General Election 2024: South Norfolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Ben Goldsborough 17,353 35.0 +11.6
Conservative Poppy Simister-Thomas 14,527 29.3 −27.2
Reform UK Chris Harrison 7,583 15.3 N/A
Liberal Democrats Christopher Brown 5,746 11.6 −5.4
Green Catherine Rowett 3,987 8.0 +4.8
Independent Paco Davila 254 0.5 N/A
SDP Jason Maguire 129 0.3 N/A
Lab Majority 2,826 5.7 N/A
Turnout 49,579 66.9 –7.4
Registered electors 74,135
Labour gain from Conservative
Swing 19.4 C to Lab
General Election 2019: South Norfolk
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Richard Bacon 36,258 58.0 -0.2
Labour Beth Jones 14,983 24.0 -6.9
Liberal Democrats Christopher Brown 8,744 14.0 +5.7
Green Ben Price 2,499 4.0 +1.5
C Majority 21,275 34.0 +6.7
2019 electorate 86,214
Turnout 62,484 72.5 -1.1
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new South Norfolk is composed of
65.2% of South Norfolk
16.4% of Mid Norfolk
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/eastern/Eastern_093_South%20Norfolk_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 29298 | 56.5% |
| Lab | 12123 | 23.4% |
| LD | 8799 | 17.0% |
| Grn | 1673 | 3.2% |
| maj | 17175 | 33.1% |
