Post by Robert Waller on Aug 16, 2023 19:42:29 GMT
Unlike Stockton South (now to be re-cast as Stockton West), Stockton North does not have a record of marginality or of changing hands between the major parties at general elections. In fact, since 1945 at least, it is more notable for times at which it did not change hands when it might have done – it could be argued that Stockton North is the dog that did not bark at times of crisis for the Labour party.
That is not to say that does not have its share of Stockton’s electoral history. Both Labour members in the town defected to the SDP in the early 1980s. The one who represented the lineal antecedent of Stockton North was William Rodgers, possibly the least well known of the ‘Gang of Four’ original leaders of the party, but a man who put a formidable amount of work into the organisation of that party and of the Liberal-SDP Alliance, and indeed into the thought which lay behind it. But unlike his less nationally known colleague standing for Stockton South, Ian Wrigglesworth, he lost in 1983, indeed finishing third in North in a tight three-way contest. The Labour victor, Frank Cook, then held on until 2010 when Alex Cunningham securely took over for Labour. Cunningham retained Stockton North in 2019, a year for Labour which was as dark, in its own way, as 1983. Admittedly the Labour majority was a mere 1,027, but this was an election in which North Eastern seats like Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Redcar were falling to the Johnson advance. This is one so-called ‘Red Wall’ constituency that has indeed remained solid ever since the end of the Second World War.
Like Stockton South, this division is only partly composed of the eponymous town. However whereas South currently incorporates the mixed Thornaby-on-Tees and the decidedly middle class Yarm, North does indeed physically look like a Labour stronghold. The largest element of its extraneous terrain lie in the five wards of Billingham (total electorate 26,400), where for decades the massive Brunner Mond then ICI chemical plant dominated an industrial skyline. Much of this has been cleared now, as ICI stopped making ammonia, then sold the Billingham fertilizer plant to Terra, methyl methacrylate producton to Ineos and the catalyst business to Johnson Matthey, all in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still a huge industrial (and wasteland) zone east of Billingham and far larger than the town itself, but there are fewer cooling towers and chimneys to focus the eye than there were. Billingham’s history as a company town is still evident, though, if one knows where to look; for example there are still a non-league football team and cricket club named Billingham Synthonia (a contraction of synthetic ammonia, one of the plant’s classic products). The football club moved away from Billingham stadium in 2017, but are still known as the Synners. The cricket ground is even yet located right on the edge of the industrial section: the view is not exactly that at Arundel.
Between them the five Billingham wards on Stockton-on-Tees borough council (with brand new boundaries) returned eight Labour and two Conservative members in the most recent elections, in May 2019. These were elected in Billingham West & Wolviston; the former West had been the only ward the Conservatives had regularly been able to win (90% owner occupied and 32% in professional and managerial occupations). The parts of Stockton itself included in the North constituency are also mainly Labour inclined. These are the centre of Stockton and the council estates to the north-west, such as Newtown ward, almost exactly one third in the social rented sector, Roseworth (30% social rented) and Hardwick (47%) . The Town Centre ward is also the site of some of Stockton’s small but growing ethnic minority population. For example the Black proportion has doubled between 2011 and 2021, if only from 0.7% to 1.4%. Its highest concentration is in the OA around Hartington Road and Skinner Street. The Asian community (up from 2.2% to 2.8%), however, is most prominent between Yarm Road and Park Road, west of Bowerfield Lane – this is in the former Parkfield & Oxbridge ward and currently in Stockton South constituency. However in the boundary changes that are to come into force for the next election Parkfield & Oxbridge will be transferred into the North seat, thus effectively uniting Stockton’s ‘inner city’ areas, and increasing the seat’s ethnic minority percentage.
This is not the only change that will strengthen Labour’s position further in Stockton North. The seat is currently more extensive in area than one might think. In addition to Billingham, there is another semi-independent community, Norton, which has three wards (North Conservative in May 2023,South and Central Labour) and lies due north of the town centre. At present the Stockton North constituency also stretches even further In a ward called Northern Parshes, almost as far north as the A689 and Thorpe Thewles, north-west and bypassed by the road to Durham. Though only having 3,500 electors, Northern Parishes is strongly Conservative. Until 2019 there was also a Western Parishes (Stillington, Redmarshall, Longnewton) where the political balance was similar; but this ward looks oddly sited at present, curling right round to the south-west of Stockton. It looks as if it should not be in a North division and it will no longer be. Indeed its inclusion is one reason why the other seat will now be renamed Stockton West.
The removal of that rural ward and the addition of a Labour stronghold (their top candidate in Parkfield & Oxbridge polled 64.5% in 2019), and will increase the incumbent party’s notional lead in Stockton North to over 3,000. Rather exceptionally, one of the main successor wards to Parkfield & Oxbridge, Ropner, actually elected two Muslim Conservatives in May 2023. However, despite local factors, and the confusion caused by new ward boundaries when the Commission used the old ones, Labour should win comfortably next time in Stockton North. With the expected positive swing at the next general election, and their long record of success here, they will not really need a boundary boost. In 1962 the Shadows (more than just Cliff Richard’s backing band) recorded Stars Fell On Stockton. In the same year Bill Rodgers was first returned as MP for Stockton in a byelection. One could, however, actually characterize the seat as ‘stars fell in Stockton’.
Not only was Frank Cook deselected in 2010, and only received a 4% share as an Independent, and Rodgers defeated in 1983, but delving further back into history, beyond the era of the Gang of Four and the SDP, Stockton on Tees was a constituency in which arguably a more successful and distinguished centrist politician was also beaten by the Labour party, in 1945. Harold Macmillan had been the member here since 1924 (except for a two-year break from 1929). Eventually the elderly ex-Prime Minister decided to take the name of his earldom from the town, but even he could only win Stockton in disastrous years for Labour, and after the war he moved down to a very different kind of urban seat – Bromley in Kent. Macmillan remembered Stockton for its experience of poverty and unemployment, for its gritty charm, rather than for its loyalty to the Conservative Party. With a significantly higher number of routine and semi-routine workers in the 2021 census than professional and managerial, even after the consistent drop of that figure by two or three per cent since 2011 as found across the nation, much of this still applies. If Labour can survive fairly awful elections like 1983 and 2019 in Stockton North, they will be just fine here next time – whether they actually form a majority government or not.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 17.9% 341/575
Owner occupied 59.0% 413/575
Private rented 19.2% 243/575
Social rented 21.8% 115/575
White 91.8% 263/575
Black 1.5% 278/575
Asian 4.6% 277/575
Managerial & professional 24.4% 497/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.9% 61/575
Degree level 25.2% 489/575
No qualifications 21.8% 124/575
Students 6.0% 245/575
General Election 2019: Stockton North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alex Cunningham 17,728 43.1 −13.8
Conservative Steven Jackson 16,701 40.6 +4.1
Brexit Party Martin Walker 3,907 9.5 New
Liberal Democrats Aidan King 1,631 4.0 +2.5
North East Mark Burdon 1,189 2.9 New
Lab Majority 1,027 2.5 −17.9
2019 electorate 66,676
Turnout 41,156 61.7 −2.8
Labour hold
Swing 9.0 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Stockton North will be composed of
95.7% of Stockton North
7.6% of Stockton South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_206_Stockton%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
That is not to say that does not have its share of Stockton’s electoral history. Both Labour members in the town defected to the SDP in the early 1980s. The one who represented the lineal antecedent of Stockton North was William Rodgers, possibly the least well known of the ‘Gang of Four’ original leaders of the party, but a man who put a formidable amount of work into the organisation of that party and of the Liberal-SDP Alliance, and indeed into the thought which lay behind it. But unlike his less nationally known colleague standing for Stockton South, Ian Wrigglesworth, he lost in 1983, indeed finishing third in North in a tight three-way contest. The Labour victor, Frank Cook, then held on until 2010 when Alex Cunningham securely took over for Labour. Cunningham retained Stockton North in 2019, a year for Labour which was as dark, in its own way, as 1983. Admittedly the Labour majority was a mere 1,027, but this was an election in which North Eastern seats like Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Redcar were falling to the Johnson advance. This is one so-called ‘Red Wall’ constituency that has indeed remained solid ever since the end of the Second World War.
Like Stockton South, this division is only partly composed of the eponymous town. However whereas South currently incorporates the mixed Thornaby-on-Tees and the decidedly middle class Yarm, North does indeed physically look like a Labour stronghold. The largest element of its extraneous terrain lie in the five wards of Billingham (total electorate 26,400), where for decades the massive Brunner Mond then ICI chemical plant dominated an industrial skyline. Much of this has been cleared now, as ICI stopped making ammonia, then sold the Billingham fertilizer plant to Terra, methyl methacrylate producton to Ineos and the catalyst business to Johnson Matthey, all in the 1990s and 2000s. There is still a huge industrial (and wasteland) zone east of Billingham and far larger than the town itself, but there are fewer cooling towers and chimneys to focus the eye than there were. Billingham’s history as a company town is still evident, though, if one knows where to look; for example there are still a non-league football team and cricket club named Billingham Synthonia (a contraction of synthetic ammonia, one of the plant’s classic products). The football club moved away from Billingham stadium in 2017, but are still known as the Synners. The cricket ground is even yet located right on the edge of the industrial section: the view is not exactly that at Arundel.
Between them the five Billingham wards on Stockton-on-Tees borough council (with brand new boundaries) returned eight Labour and two Conservative members in the most recent elections, in May 2019. These were elected in Billingham West & Wolviston; the former West had been the only ward the Conservatives had regularly been able to win (90% owner occupied and 32% in professional and managerial occupations). The parts of Stockton itself included in the North constituency are also mainly Labour inclined. These are the centre of Stockton and the council estates to the north-west, such as Newtown ward, almost exactly one third in the social rented sector, Roseworth (30% social rented) and Hardwick (47%) . The Town Centre ward is also the site of some of Stockton’s small but growing ethnic minority population. For example the Black proportion has doubled between 2011 and 2021, if only from 0.7% to 1.4%. Its highest concentration is in the OA around Hartington Road and Skinner Street. The Asian community (up from 2.2% to 2.8%), however, is most prominent between Yarm Road and Park Road, west of Bowerfield Lane – this is in the former Parkfield & Oxbridge ward and currently in Stockton South constituency. However in the boundary changes that are to come into force for the next election Parkfield & Oxbridge will be transferred into the North seat, thus effectively uniting Stockton’s ‘inner city’ areas, and increasing the seat’s ethnic minority percentage.
This is not the only change that will strengthen Labour’s position further in Stockton North. The seat is currently more extensive in area than one might think. In addition to Billingham, there is another semi-independent community, Norton, which has three wards (North Conservative in May 2023,South and Central Labour) and lies due north of the town centre. At present the Stockton North constituency also stretches even further In a ward called Northern Parshes, almost as far north as the A689 and Thorpe Thewles, north-west and bypassed by the road to Durham. Though only having 3,500 electors, Northern Parishes is strongly Conservative. Until 2019 there was also a Western Parishes (Stillington, Redmarshall, Longnewton) where the political balance was similar; but this ward looks oddly sited at present, curling right round to the south-west of Stockton. It looks as if it should not be in a North division and it will no longer be. Indeed its inclusion is one reason why the other seat will now be renamed Stockton West.
The removal of that rural ward and the addition of a Labour stronghold (their top candidate in Parkfield & Oxbridge polled 64.5% in 2019), and will increase the incumbent party’s notional lead in Stockton North to over 3,000. Rather exceptionally, one of the main successor wards to Parkfield & Oxbridge, Ropner, actually elected two Muslim Conservatives in May 2023. However, despite local factors, and the confusion caused by new ward boundaries when the Commission used the old ones, Labour should win comfortably next time in Stockton North. With the expected positive swing at the next general election, and their long record of success here, they will not really need a boundary boost. In 1962 the Shadows (more than just Cliff Richard’s backing band) recorded Stars Fell On Stockton. In the same year Bill Rodgers was first returned as MP for Stockton in a byelection. One could, however, actually characterize the seat as ‘stars fell in Stockton’.
Not only was Frank Cook deselected in 2010, and only received a 4% share as an Independent, and Rodgers defeated in 1983, but delving further back into history, beyond the era of the Gang of Four and the SDP, Stockton on Tees was a constituency in which arguably a more successful and distinguished centrist politician was also beaten by the Labour party, in 1945. Harold Macmillan had been the member here since 1924 (except for a two-year break from 1929). Eventually the elderly ex-Prime Minister decided to take the name of his earldom from the town, but even he could only win Stockton in disastrous years for Labour, and after the war he moved down to a very different kind of urban seat – Bromley in Kent. Macmillan remembered Stockton for its experience of poverty and unemployment, for its gritty charm, rather than for its loyalty to the Conservative Party. With a significantly higher number of routine and semi-routine workers in the 2021 census than professional and managerial, even after the consistent drop of that figure by two or three per cent since 2011 as found across the nation, much of this still applies. If Labour can survive fairly awful elections like 1983 and 2019 in Stockton North, they will be just fine here next time – whether they actually form a majority government or not.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 17.9% 341/575
Owner occupied 59.0% 413/575
Private rented 19.2% 243/575
Social rented 21.8% 115/575
White 91.8% 263/575
Black 1.5% 278/575
Asian 4.6% 277/575
Managerial & professional 24.4% 497/575
Routine & Semi-routine 30.9% 61/575
Degree level 25.2% 489/575
No qualifications 21.8% 124/575
Students 6.0% 245/575
General Election 2019: Stockton North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Alex Cunningham 17,728 43.1 −13.8
Conservative Steven Jackson 16,701 40.6 +4.1
Brexit Party Martin Walker 3,907 9.5 New
Liberal Democrats Aidan King 1,631 4.0 +2.5
North East Mark Burdon 1,189 2.9 New
Lab Majority 1,027 2.5 −17.9
2019 electorate 66,676
Turnout 41,156 61.7 −2.8
Labour hold
Swing 9.0 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
The new Stockton North will be composed of
95.7% of Stockton North
7.6% of Stockton South
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/north-east/North%20East_206_Stockton%20North_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 20136 | 46.7% |
| Con | 16164 | 37.5% |
| Brexit | 3896 | 9.0% |
| LD | 1723 | 4.0% |
| Oth | 1189 | 2.8% |
| | ||
| Oths | ||
| Majority | 3972 | 9.2% |
