Post by Robert Waller on Aug 16, 2023 12:00:54 GMT
Caerphilly is relatively unscathed in the boundary changes that reduce the allocation of parliamentary seats in Wales from 40 to 32. The name survives, and over 90% of the electors of the current division are kept together in the new seat. The only section to be removed, with 6,000 voters, is Bargoed and Gilfach, which is transferred to Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney. Of course more territory needs to be moved in. This comes in the form of around a quarter of Islwyn, which some would argue is abolished, although the name will live on in association with Newport West - and indeed provides it more than half of the voters of that seat. The electoral divisions transferred are Pontllanfraith (over 6,300 voters), Cefn Fforest and Pengam (2,800 each) and Maesycymmer (1,800). This is essentially an extension east and north of Ystrad Mynach and Hengoed. Labour won all the new wards comfortably in May 2022 and overall their grip on Caerphilly will no way be compromised by the boundary additions.
This constituency is certainly characterised by the letter ‘C’. Caerphilly might be most widely known through its castle and its cheese, but it is coal that has shaped its political and electoral culture. Deep coal-mining is basically extinct in South Wales now, but the legacy lives on to bolster the Labour party. From virtually the beginning of the 20th century the miners in the valleys took to the new party, and that tradition has sustained it ever since: there is to this day no greater stronghold or concentration of safe Labour seats. The South Wales miners were noted for many decades, both before and after the Great War, to be at the cutting edge of the trade union movement. Bitter and sometimes violent conflicts arose between the union and the owners – and indeed the forces of the government. The remoteness of the valley communities, and their one-industry nature, assisted them in becoming virtually one-party no-contests in general elections, even in 1931. The Caerphilly seat, for example, has never elected anything other than a Labour MP since its creation in 1918, and in 1931 Morgan Jones was re-elected with a majority of over 12,000, taking more than twice the share of votes of his Conservative opponent. The mines here have all long been closed, for example the Windsor mine near Abertridwr was merged with Nantgarw and then finally ended extraction in 1975. Penallta near Ystrad Mynach lasted until 1991. Yet the political heritage has to a large extent survived. The seat includes Senghenydd, the site of the worst ever mining disaster in Britain, when 440 lost their lives in an explosion in October 1913. Over a century is not enough passage of time to erase the memory of such sacrifice.
The Caerphilly seat is centred on the lower Rhymney Valley: Caerphilly itself, and Bedwas and Machen, not far from Cardiff in the first valley fold north of the capital. The constituency edges up the valley through ex-mining communities like Senghenydd, Ystrad Mynach, Nelson, Gelligaer (a village after which one of the more obscure Urban District Councils was named until the 1974 local government reforms) and Hengoed to Bargoed, where it currently reaches the border with Islwyn; at this point Aberbargoed on the other side of the Rhymney river is in Neil Kinnock’s former seat. Caerphilly town, with a population of just over 40,000, is of necessity of more mixed history and character. Indeed it effectively started as a community by the construction of the massive castle (third largest in England and Wales after only Dover and Windsor) -not so much moated as surrounded by a substantial lake - which started in the 13th century as a bulwark against Llewellyn ap Gruffydd. Caerphilly’s employment in the 21st century is much more modern in nature, with a large industrial estate in the west of the town (PHS hygiene services, Longlife exhausts, King David’s tyres, Funtastic party planners) and a business park in the east (Gavel Auctioneers, Nextbase support and development, Coldblood reptiles and J.Pesci’s scrapyard (perhaps not the actor known for portraying Mafiosi). As for cheese though, it may have originated in the rural parts of the constituency, but it is now largely made in Somerset and Wiltshire.
In local elections within the Caerphilly county borough the predominant tone is Labour with a Plaid Cymru challenge. In May 2022, for example, the two parties split between them the representation of Bargoed, Bedwas, Penhyrheol and St Cattwg. Labour were ahead within the Caerphilly town electoral divisions of Van, St Martin’s and Morgan Jones (yes, named after the former MP), and also in Nelson, Gilfach and Machen. The Nationalists, however, won the outlying Aber Valley, Hengoed, Llanbradach and Ystrad Mynach. This is not really a product of speaking the Welsh language, as the highest level in any electoral division within the seat in the 2011 census was 15.1% in Aber Valley, which includes Senghenydd and Abertridwr. This linguistic factor is the main reason why Plaid Cymru have never come closer to winning in Caerphilly in Westminster parliamentary contests than the 1968 byelection, when at a time of rock-bottom Labour government unpopularity they held on by 1,874 votes against the distinguished space scientist Phil Williams. In the last four general elections since 2010, Plaid have finished behind the Conservatives, and in 2015 behind UKIP as well.
Partly boosted by the seat’s Brexit tendencies (55% in the 2016 referendum), the Conservatives did achieve nearly 28% in the 2019 general election, which was their best performance since a 1939 by election and the 1931 general election, but as those were both in straight fights with Labour and there were four candidates in 2019, it was arguably their best ever showing in Caerphilly. However the swing since 2017 was only 6%, which was far less than they achieved in seats of a similar social makeup in northern England, for example, and they still trailed by a substantial 17%. Despite the appearance of the castle as a fortress that makes it look as if a staunch defence of Caerphilly is necessary, it is still the tradition of the that other C, coal, that means that this will remain an unassailable fortress – and that one C that will still not be associated with Caerphilly is that of Conservatism.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.8% 260/575
Owner occupied 69.2% 199/575
Private rented 13.0% 535/575
Social rented 17.8% 202/575
White 97.5% 33/575
Black 0.1% 570/575
Asian 1.0% 514/575
No religion 56.0% 6/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 393/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.8% 141/575
Degree level 27.3% 420/575
No qualifications 22.6% 93/575
Students 5.7% 269/575
General Election 2019: Caerphilly
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Wayne David 18,018 44.9 −9.6
Conservative Jane Pratt 11,185 27.9 +2.7
Plaid Cymru Lindsay Whittle 6,424 16.0 +1.6
Brexit Party Nathan Gill 4,490 11.2 N/A
Lab Majority 6,833 17.0 −12.3
2019 Registered electors 63,166
Turnout 40,117 65.3 −2.8
Labour hold
Swing 6.1 Lab to C
Boundary changes
The new Caerphilly will be composed of
90.8% of Caerphilly
24.6% of Islwyn
Map
p89
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/sites/bcomm/files/review/E02859434_Boundary%20Commission%20Wales%202023_English_Web%20Accessible_V03.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
This constituency is certainly characterised by the letter ‘C’. Caerphilly might be most widely known through its castle and its cheese, but it is coal that has shaped its political and electoral culture. Deep coal-mining is basically extinct in South Wales now, but the legacy lives on to bolster the Labour party. From virtually the beginning of the 20th century the miners in the valleys took to the new party, and that tradition has sustained it ever since: there is to this day no greater stronghold or concentration of safe Labour seats. The South Wales miners were noted for many decades, both before and after the Great War, to be at the cutting edge of the trade union movement. Bitter and sometimes violent conflicts arose between the union and the owners – and indeed the forces of the government. The remoteness of the valley communities, and their one-industry nature, assisted them in becoming virtually one-party no-contests in general elections, even in 1931. The Caerphilly seat, for example, has never elected anything other than a Labour MP since its creation in 1918, and in 1931 Morgan Jones was re-elected with a majority of over 12,000, taking more than twice the share of votes of his Conservative opponent. The mines here have all long been closed, for example the Windsor mine near Abertridwr was merged with Nantgarw and then finally ended extraction in 1975. Penallta near Ystrad Mynach lasted until 1991. Yet the political heritage has to a large extent survived. The seat includes Senghenydd, the site of the worst ever mining disaster in Britain, when 440 lost their lives in an explosion in October 1913. Over a century is not enough passage of time to erase the memory of such sacrifice.
The Caerphilly seat is centred on the lower Rhymney Valley: Caerphilly itself, and Bedwas and Machen, not far from Cardiff in the first valley fold north of the capital. The constituency edges up the valley through ex-mining communities like Senghenydd, Ystrad Mynach, Nelson, Gelligaer (a village after which one of the more obscure Urban District Councils was named until the 1974 local government reforms) and Hengoed to Bargoed, where it currently reaches the border with Islwyn; at this point Aberbargoed on the other side of the Rhymney river is in Neil Kinnock’s former seat. Caerphilly town, with a population of just over 40,000, is of necessity of more mixed history and character. Indeed it effectively started as a community by the construction of the massive castle (third largest in England and Wales after only Dover and Windsor) -not so much moated as surrounded by a substantial lake - which started in the 13th century as a bulwark against Llewellyn ap Gruffydd. Caerphilly’s employment in the 21st century is much more modern in nature, with a large industrial estate in the west of the town (PHS hygiene services, Longlife exhausts, King David’s tyres, Funtastic party planners) and a business park in the east (Gavel Auctioneers, Nextbase support and development, Coldblood reptiles and J.Pesci’s scrapyard (perhaps not the actor known for portraying Mafiosi). As for cheese though, it may have originated in the rural parts of the constituency, but it is now largely made in Somerset and Wiltshire.
In local elections within the Caerphilly county borough the predominant tone is Labour with a Plaid Cymru challenge. In May 2022, for example, the two parties split between them the representation of Bargoed, Bedwas, Penhyrheol and St Cattwg. Labour were ahead within the Caerphilly town electoral divisions of Van, St Martin’s and Morgan Jones (yes, named after the former MP), and also in Nelson, Gilfach and Machen. The Nationalists, however, won the outlying Aber Valley, Hengoed, Llanbradach and Ystrad Mynach. This is not really a product of speaking the Welsh language, as the highest level in any electoral division within the seat in the 2011 census was 15.1% in Aber Valley, which includes Senghenydd and Abertridwr. This linguistic factor is the main reason why Plaid Cymru have never come closer to winning in Caerphilly in Westminster parliamentary contests than the 1968 byelection, when at a time of rock-bottom Labour government unpopularity they held on by 1,874 votes against the distinguished space scientist Phil Williams. In the last four general elections since 2010, Plaid have finished behind the Conservatives, and in 2015 behind UKIP as well.
Partly boosted by the seat’s Brexit tendencies (55% in the 2016 referendum), the Conservatives did achieve nearly 28% in the 2019 general election, which was their best performance since a 1939 by election and the 1931 general election, but as those were both in straight fights with Labour and there were four candidates in 2019, it was arguably their best ever showing in Caerphilly. However the swing since 2017 was only 6%, which was far less than they achieved in seats of a similar social makeup in northern England, for example, and they still trailed by a substantial 17%. Despite the appearance of the castle as a fortress that makes it look as if a staunch defence of Caerphilly is necessary, it is still the tradition of the that other C, coal, that means that this will remain an unassailable fortress – and that one C that will still not be associated with Caerphilly is that of Conservatism.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 19.8% 260/575
Owner occupied 69.2% 199/575
Private rented 13.0% 535/575
Social rented 17.8% 202/575
White 97.5% 33/575
Black 0.1% 570/575
Asian 1.0% 514/575
No religion 56.0% 6/575
Managerial & professional 28.6% 393/575
Routine & Semi-routine 27.8% 141/575
Degree level 27.3% 420/575
No qualifications 22.6% 93/575
Students 5.7% 269/575
General Election 2019: Caerphilly
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Wayne David 18,018 44.9 −9.6
Conservative Jane Pratt 11,185 27.9 +2.7
Plaid Cymru Lindsay Whittle 6,424 16.0 +1.6
Brexit Party Nathan Gill 4,490 11.2 N/A
Lab Majority 6,833 17.0 −12.3
2019 Registered electors 63,166
Turnout 40,117 65.3 −2.8
Labour hold
Swing 6.1 Lab to C
Boundary changes
The new Caerphilly will be composed of
90.8% of Caerphilly
24.6% of Islwyn
Map
p89
bcomm-wales.gov.uk/sites/bcomm/files/review/E02859434_Boundary%20Commission%20Wales%202023_English_Web%20Accessible_V03.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Lab | 19782 | 43.9% |
| Con | 12882 | 28.6% |
| Plaid Cymru | 6630 | 14.7% |
| Brexit | 5287 | 11.7% |
| LD | 323 | 0.7% |
| Green | 164 | 0.4% |
| Majority | 6901 | 15.3% |
