Post by Robert Waller on Aug 15, 2023 13:43:48 GMT
On his death at the age of 98 in November 2022, the BBC obituary of Sir David Butler mentioned that among all his other achievements was this: “the 1970 election saw another innovation - the BBC's first exit poll. David Butler identified Gravesend in Kent as the most representative constituency in Britain - and a team of pollsters was dispatched. Against all expectations, Gravesend forecast a big swing to the Conservatives. Harold Wilson ventured the opinion that it could still be "very close" but Butler's rejoinder was withering. ‘I hate to disagree with a fellow member of the Royal Statistical Society, especially as he's still prime minister,’ he said, ‘but I don't think there can be any doubt about the outcome.’ Harold Wilson lost both the argument and the election.”
There were good reasons why the pioneering psephologist made his judgment about Gravesend. It has been a ‘bellwether’ (originally, the sheep that leads the herd) seat that had gone with the winning party in each general election since 1955, and it continued to do so until 2005, though its name was altered to reflect that of its local authority in 1983: thus it changed hands in 1964, 1970, February 1974, 1979 and 1997. There are other reasons why it is a useful constituency to keep tabs on. There have been no boundary changes here since 1983, and indeed none were proposed in the provisional, revised or final stages of the ‘2023’ review. It remains coterminous with the Borough of Gravesham
However, Sir David probably would not recommend Gravesham as politically typical more recently. The deviation started in 2005. One of the marks and key components of Tony Blair’s pair of landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 had been the ability to win seats in counties usually unfavourable to the Labour party, and Kent was perhaps the leading example: seven marginal seats had been gained in the county, yet the only one to fall to the Tories when Blair sought a third term was Gravesham. This broke the seat’s tradition, as the Prime Minister did not lose office. Thereafter Gravesham has continued to deviate from the national norm. In December 2019 the Conservatives won by a margin of 15,581, or 32.8% of the votes cast. This compares with a nationwide lead of 11.5%. This means that Gravesham is actually the 216th most vulnerable Conservative seat, or to put it another way, their 149th safest – far from the midpoint of the constituency spectrum.
One reason for this migration is clear. Because the Westminster constituency lines are the same as those of the borough, we know that it voted in the 2016 referendum without the usual need for estimation. 65.4% opted for Leave, 34.6% for Remain. Not entirely uncoincidentally, this deviates from the national average by a margin fairly close to that it displayed in the 2019 general election. Gravesham’s census statistics do not all look ‘average’ either. The age structure and housing tenure figures are not dramatically skewed. However the seat is definitely on the more working class side of the median, with a particularly high proportion in construction (the 6th most of any of the 650 constituencies in 2011), and, even more clearly, educational qualifications are lower. The percentage of ethnic minorities is higher than the national average, but not so much more than that for the South East – unusually, the largest group here is of the Sikh faith.
Nevertheless, it would seem that the main driver of the decline of Labour from competitiveness in this division is a combination of attitudes towards Europe and being situated in the sub-region of Kent, rather than specifically ‘Gravesham factors’. Four of the other Labour seats of the Blair era are even safer than it is for the Tories after 2019, the exceptions being Dover and Thanet South. Ironically, one Kent seat that Blair’s party never won, Canterbury, was gained in 2017 and held in 2019. But Canterbury voted nearly 55% Remain, had 24% students in 2011, and a very different class and education profile from the previous wave of New Labour gains.
Labour can still win council wards within Gravesham. In the most recent elections, in May 2023, on new ward boundaries, Labour won (Gravesend) Town, Coldharbour & Perry Street, Denton, Northfleet & Springhead, Pelham, Rosherville (in Northfleet), Singlewell, Westcourt and Whitehill & Windmill Hill.
New ward maps
www.gravesham.gov.uk/downloads/download/92/ward-maps
This follows a long standing pattern whereby Labour does well in the parts of the seat on and near the river Thames. Also, Pelham, which covers the western part of Gravesend town centre then runs south past the cricket ground, has the highest ethnic minority population (around 40% in the relevant Output Areas in the 2021 census, and 30% Sikh). Coldharbour, Singlewell, Westcourt and Whitehill are more inland Gravesend ‘council estate’ neighbourhoods, and although the picture is clouded by the ward boundary review, they did better there in 2023 than in 2019, when some returned mixed party representation – probably helped by the wearing off of the ‘Brexit effect’ over those four years.
On the other hand it is also true that the more rural southern section of Gravesham, with its villages set in serrated hills rising towards the North Downs, such as Meopham and Istead Rise, Shorne, Cobham & Luddesdown, Henley Street and South Street and Sole Street, are strongly Conservative; these are the places that used to tip the balance in even years nationally. In 2023 the Tories won all the wards covering these communities again, mostly very comfortably. Another informative recent example is to be found in the Kent county council election of May 2021. The whole of Gravesham is divided into just three very large county electoral divisions. The Conservatives were not far ahead in Gravesend East (by 49% to 38% for Labour, an electorate of no less than 31,140). In Gravesend West and Northfleet one councillor was elected from each party, with the Conservatives between them taking 42.2% to Labour’s 40.5% (30,093 electors). But in Gravesham Rural the Tories won by over 50 points, 67% to 15%. Even though this division ‘only’ has 15,500 voters, it is easy to see why it can be so influential.
The naming of the county electoral divisions seems to suggest that Gravesham refers to the whole borough, Gravesend to the main town. In fact Gravesham is an older name for the town: it appeared as such in Domesday Book. The notion that it was changed to Gravesend because this is where the line of graves caused by the Black Death ended, as it advanced from London, is probably an incorrect rationalization. The contrast between the gritty, industrial riverfront of Northfleet (with its paper mills and former cable works) and central Gravesend (maritime, Port of London, Pocahontas), then progressively more attractive suburban and rural sections, still has validity. It is just that it has not added up to overall balanced marginality as the 21st century has developed. The Butler swing(ometer) has veered rightwards. Labour can now win an election without taking it.
Yet one has the feeling that in circumstances when the European issue is no longer dominant Gravesham may have the inclination to swing back towards the centre by a more than average degree; adding up the votes in the coterminous borough in May 2023 the main parties were neck and neck, approximately 48% Conservative and 47% Labour – much more competitive than, say, in Dartford next door, also in west Kent on the Thames estuary, at the same date. In the 2024 general election Gravesham may once again prove to be the sort of seat that so drew it to the attention of the maestro.
2011 Census, ranks UK, included for comparison as boundaries unchanged
Age 65+ 16.0% 381/650
Owner-occupied 64.6% 396/650
Private rented 16.1% 226/650
Social rented 17.3% 285 /650
White 82.8% 514 /650
Black 2.8% 146/650
Asian 10.4% 115/650
Sikh 7.6% 11/650
Managerial & professional 26.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0%
Employed in construction 11.9% 6/650
Degree level 20.0% 511/650
No qualifications 24.4% 277/650
2021 Census ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 17.2% 367/575
Owner occupied 63.3% 351/575
Private rented 19.3% 242/575
Social rented 17.4% 212/575
White 76.6% 434/575
Black 6.5% 104/575
Asian 11.2% 137/575
Managerial & professional 29.1% 381/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.1% 204/575
Degree level 26.7% 350/575
No qualifications 20.3% 181/575
Students 5.6% 260/575
2019 General Election: Gravesham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Adam Holloway 29,580 62.2 +6.6
Labour Lauren Sullivan 13,999 29.4 -7.1
Liberal Democrats Ukonu Obasi 2,584 5.4 +2.9
Green Marna Gilligan 1,397 2.9 +1.4
C Majority 15,581 32.8 +13.7
2019 electorate 73,234
Turnout 47,560 64.9 -2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary changes and 2019 notional results
N/A No changes
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_324_Gravesham_Portrait.pdf
There were good reasons why the pioneering psephologist made his judgment about Gravesend. It has been a ‘bellwether’ (originally, the sheep that leads the herd) seat that had gone with the winning party in each general election since 1955, and it continued to do so until 2005, though its name was altered to reflect that of its local authority in 1983: thus it changed hands in 1964, 1970, February 1974, 1979 and 1997. There are other reasons why it is a useful constituency to keep tabs on. There have been no boundary changes here since 1983, and indeed none were proposed in the provisional, revised or final stages of the ‘2023’ review. It remains coterminous with the Borough of Gravesham
However, Sir David probably would not recommend Gravesham as politically typical more recently. The deviation started in 2005. One of the marks and key components of Tony Blair’s pair of landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 had been the ability to win seats in counties usually unfavourable to the Labour party, and Kent was perhaps the leading example: seven marginal seats had been gained in the county, yet the only one to fall to the Tories when Blair sought a third term was Gravesham. This broke the seat’s tradition, as the Prime Minister did not lose office. Thereafter Gravesham has continued to deviate from the national norm. In December 2019 the Conservatives won by a margin of 15,581, or 32.8% of the votes cast. This compares with a nationwide lead of 11.5%. This means that Gravesham is actually the 216th most vulnerable Conservative seat, or to put it another way, their 149th safest – far from the midpoint of the constituency spectrum.
One reason for this migration is clear. Because the Westminster constituency lines are the same as those of the borough, we know that it voted in the 2016 referendum without the usual need for estimation. 65.4% opted for Leave, 34.6% for Remain. Not entirely uncoincidentally, this deviates from the national average by a margin fairly close to that it displayed in the 2019 general election. Gravesham’s census statistics do not all look ‘average’ either. The age structure and housing tenure figures are not dramatically skewed. However the seat is definitely on the more working class side of the median, with a particularly high proportion in construction (the 6th most of any of the 650 constituencies in 2011), and, even more clearly, educational qualifications are lower. The percentage of ethnic minorities is higher than the national average, but not so much more than that for the South East – unusually, the largest group here is of the Sikh faith.
Nevertheless, it would seem that the main driver of the decline of Labour from competitiveness in this division is a combination of attitudes towards Europe and being situated in the sub-region of Kent, rather than specifically ‘Gravesham factors’. Four of the other Labour seats of the Blair era are even safer than it is for the Tories after 2019, the exceptions being Dover and Thanet South. Ironically, one Kent seat that Blair’s party never won, Canterbury, was gained in 2017 and held in 2019. But Canterbury voted nearly 55% Remain, had 24% students in 2011, and a very different class and education profile from the previous wave of New Labour gains.
Labour can still win council wards within Gravesham. In the most recent elections, in May 2023, on new ward boundaries, Labour won (Gravesend) Town, Coldharbour & Perry Street, Denton, Northfleet & Springhead, Pelham, Rosherville (in Northfleet), Singlewell, Westcourt and Whitehill & Windmill Hill.
New ward maps
www.gravesham.gov.uk/downloads/download/92/ward-maps
This follows a long standing pattern whereby Labour does well in the parts of the seat on and near the river Thames. Also, Pelham, which covers the western part of Gravesend town centre then runs south past the cricket ground, has the highest ethnic minority population (around 40% in the relevant Output Areas in the 2021 census, and 30% Sikh). Coldharbour, Singlewell, Westcourt and Whitehill are more inland Gravesend ‘council estate’ neighbourhoods, and although the picture is clouded by the ward boundary review, they did better there in 2023 than in 2019, when some returned mixed party representation – probably helped by the wearing off of the ‘Brexit effect’ over those four years.
On the other hand it is also true that the more rural southern section of Gravesham, with its villages set in serrated hills rising towards the North Downs, such as Meopham and Istead Rise, Shorne, Cobham & Luddesdown, Henley Street and South Street and Sole Street, are strongly Conservative; these are the places that used to tip the balance in even years nationally. In 2023 the Tories won all the wards covering these communities again, mostly very comfortably. Another informative recent example is to be found in the Kent county council election of May 2021. The whole of Gravesham is divided into just three very large county electoral divisions. The Conservatives were not far ahead in Gravesend East (by 49% to 38% for Labour, an electorate of no less than 31,140). In Gravesend West and Northfleet one councillor was elected from each party, with the Conservatives between them taking 42.2% to Labour’s 40.5% (30,093 electors). But in Gravesham Rural the Tories won by over 50 points, 67% to 15%. Even though this division ‘only’ has 15,500 voters, it is easy to see why it can be so influential.
The naming of the county electoral divisions seems to suggest that Gravesham refers to the whole borough, Gravesend to the main town. In fact Gravesham is an older name for the town: it appeared as such in Domesday Book. The notion that it was changed to Gravesend because this is where the line of graves caused by the Black Death ended, as it advanced from London, is probably an incorrect rationalization. The contrast between the gritty, industrial riverfront of Northfleet (with its paper mills and former cable works) and central Gravesend (maritime, Port of London, Pocahontas), then progressively more attractive suburban and rural sections, still has validity. It is just that it has not added up to overall balanced marginality as the 21st century has developed. The Butler swing(ometer) has veered rightwards. Labour can now win an election without taking it.
Yet one has the feeling that in circumstances when the European issue is no longer dominant Gravesham may have the inclination to swing back towards the centre by a more than average degree; adding up the votes in the coterminous borough in May 2023 the main parties were neck and neck, approximately 48% Conservative and 47% Labour – much more competitive than, say, in Dartford next door, also in west Kent on the Thames estuary, at the same date. In the 2024 general election Gravesham may once again prove to be the sort of seat that so drew it to the attention of the maestro.
2011 Census, ranks UK, included for comparison as boundaries unchanged
Age 65+ 16.0% 381/650
Owner-occupied 64.6% 396/650
Private rented 16.1% 226/650
Social rented 17.3% 285 /650
White 82.8% 514 /650
Black 2.8% 146/650
Asian 10.4% 115/650
Sikh 7.6% 11/650
Managerial & professional 26.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 29.0%
Employed in construction 11.9% 6/650
Degree level 20.0% 511/650
No qualifications 24.4% 277/650
2021 Census ranks England and Wales
Age 65+ 17.2% 367/575
Owner occupied 63.3% 351/575
Private rented 19.3% 242/575
Social rented 17.4% 212/575
White 76.6% 434/575
Black 6.5% 104/575
Asian 11.2% 137/575
Managerial & professional 29.1% 381/575
Routine & Semi-routine 26.1% 204/575
Degree level 26.7% 350/575
No qualifications 20.3% 181/575
Students 5.6% 260/575
2019 General Election: Gravesham
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Adam Holloway 29,580 62.2 +6.6
Labour Lauren Sullivan 13,999 29.4 -7.1
Liberal Democrats Ukonu Obasi 2,584 5.4 +2.9
Green Marna Gilligan 1,397 2.9 +1.4
C Majority 15,581 32.8 +13.7
2019 electorate 73,234
Turnout 47,560 64.9 -2.3
Conservative hold
Swing 6.8 Lab to C
Boundary changes and 2019 notional results
N/A No changes
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_324_Gravesham_Portrait.pdf
