Post by bsjmcr on Aug 14, 2023 23:45:13 GMT
Sir Robert Peel may be forever associated with the Tamworth Manifesto, but it is Bury where he was born and raised, and so he is arguably Bury's most famous son. There is a pub named after him and a statue in the town centre, and up in Ramsbottom the Peel Monument which looks over the borough and beyond. One would think, therefore, that through these links this is a Tory bastion, but in fact on its old boundaries it was the most marginal seat in England with the Conservatives leading by just 105 votes. Even after the boundary change, which will introduce part of the town of Radcliffe from Bury South, it will still start off as one of the most marginal seats in the country with an estimated Tory majority of fewer than 1,000 votes.
As always with both of the Bury seats, it is a bit of a misnomer - the entire town of Bury is in the North seat as it covers the northern half of the entire borough. Bury itself is forever associated with Black Pudding, and its town centre is home to a proudly-named 'World Famous' Market, which attracts visitors from across Greater Manchester and beyond. There is also the Fusiliers Museum and the heritage East Lancashire Railway for any Flying Scotsman enthusiasts, for more conventional transport, Bury is also the terminus of the original Metrolink Line to Altrincham. The arts/theatre venue The Met is based here at the Victorian-era Derby Hall, a notable performance there was one of the last concerts by the band Joy Division in 1980 where riots occurred. There are also two large Sixth Form colleges that serve students from across the borough and beyond. Lisa Nandy went to Holy Cross, and John Ashworth to its neighbour Bury College. There is also a prestigious private fee-paying Grammar School, which has a girls (alumna: Victoria Derbyshire) and boys division (alumni: several MPs, including Mr Peel). There are no free grammar schools across Bury, but the borough's better comprehensives are to be found in this constituency. Sadly the FA-cup winning (back in 1900) original local football team based at Gigg Lane was expelled from the football league in 2019 due to financial issues, despite the best efforts of local elected representatives and the community. Its resurrected club, formed by a merger of two spin-off clubs in 2023, is now in the ninth division, the North West Counties league.
Nonetheless, Bury is generally regarded as remaining relatively affluent when the textile industry of Manchester declined, due to much of the industry in Bury being based on paper making which continued for some time after. The borough as a whole often comes up in third place in Greater Manchester (after the traditionally regarded as 'affluent', Trafford and Stockport) when ranked across several demographic metrics such as deprivation, occupation, education, even recycling rate, and Brexit vote (at a marginal 54% leave, is the most 'remain' area after remain-voting Trafford, Stockport and Manchester). It is therefore pretty middling on a national level, which explains its marginality, and hopefully this will give you a flavour.
The town centre Bury East ward and a number of the neighbouring ones are reliably Labour - there is sporadic council housing throughout, often for older people, and some rows of terraced houses. Most of the ethnic minority population of Bury North is also concentrated in East ward and environs, though as a whole it is not as sizeable or well-known as that of neighbouring Bolton, Rochdale or Oldham. The neighbouring Moorside ward contains the notorious 'Dicky Bird' estate (so-called because the streets are named after bird species) - bisected by the M66 motorway whizzing right down the middle of it, a very troubled area. On the other hand the West ward is highly affluent, white and slightly older in age, and so safely conservative, while Elton to the northwest is suburban and marginal. The River Irwell flows through the area, through the towns and powered many of the mills that once stood. Some evidence of this has been preserved at Burrs Country Park, where a cotton mill once was.
Leave the town centre and it becomes more suburban and even rural with swathes of green belt land surrounding the next town, Tottington, which is reliably conservative, as are, going further north, small villages such as Greenmount and Summerseat, and finally Ramsbottom at the top of the borough. Ramsbottom was generally a Conservative heartland but has been more marginal in recent times, a few years ago both main parties were tied and had to draw straws (Labour winning, taking the council) and recently Labour have been comfortably gaining council seats there. It is a very pleasant, comfortable market town surrounded by green space and the hills of the West Pennines, permanent fixtures on the landscape being the aforementioned Peel Tower on Holcombe Hill, and in the distance the many wind turbines of nearby Scout Moor - the second largest onshore wind farm. The town is now increasingly attractive for commuting despite being isolated from the tram/train network (save for the ELR!), but the M66 motorway lies close by, taking you to Manchester in little over 30 minutes. It could be that Ramsbottom is attracting a younger family type of commuting demographic, possibly more of a public sector type, which may be leading to this shift away from the Tories. The complete opposite can be said of Radcliffe, whose North & Ainsworth ward is now appended to the edge of the new constituency, as the current one is currently undersized. The town has in recent years, in feeling 'left behind', swung strongly against Labour, voting for independent localist parties (known as Radcliffe First), and Conservatives too in the case of Radcliffe North & Ainsworth, and is likely to have voted strongly for Leave, leading the whole borough to tip into the Brexit column.
The BBC 'Vote2001' entry for the existing Bury South described Radcliffe as: "the town of Radcliffe, which has suffered from a declining industrial base and has been unable to attract the residential or retail developments which have assisted Bury itself." Unfortunately, not a lot seems to have changed almost a quarter of a century later, though attempts at regeneration have occurred including a new market hall to provide a local alternative to world-famous Bury, a new Lidl, and a large park and ride Metrolink station. Parts of the joining ward though do have some things in common with the existing Bury North, such as better-off and semi-rural parts such as the village of Ainsworth, surrounded by farmland, and the Bradley Fold area on the border with Bolton, a comfortable identikit suburban housing estate, but as the name suggests it will also bring in a north-west chunk of traditional Radcliffe, which will bring in a touch more areas of social housing, deprivation, and lower qualifications into the constituency. In previous times, such a boundary change would have brought in a block Labour vote of several thousand, but these are not normal times, and on paper this now makes Bury North slightly more conservative by a few hundred votes. At the last all-out council elections in 2022, in Radcliffe North & Ainsworth, two RF candidates came top, with a remarkable tie for third place between two conservative candidates. The lucky conservative winner was re-elected in 2023 by just 71 votes over RF, making this a rare (in GM) independent-conservative marginal ward. One can imagine this being a direct battle between the more conservative-inclined semi-rural areas of the ward and Radcliffe First votes coming in from the part of the town proper. Labour are a distant third in this ward. As for the Lib Dems in Bury North, they are nowhere to be seen locally, and as is the case in many tight Lab/Con marginals, massively lost their deposit at every election since 2015.
The marginal status of Bury North perhaps is representative of the seat, and even the country, as a whole, with few extremes of mass deprivation or affluence, an urban centre surrounded by semi-rural areas, and a Brexit vote close to the national average at around 53-54% for Leave. Overall proportion of graduates and professionals is slightly higher than the national average. This is not a Red Wall area at all (except for Radcliffe, whose part-inclusion does add a little 'red brick' to this ultra-marginal), and as such is more middle-England with a northern feel. The pairing of Bury and Radcliffe is not unprecedented either, the two towns were fully united in a constituency from 1950-1983 (plus Tottington but not Ramsbottom, which was in Rossendale). Remarkably that old seat also produced some historic close results, including a Conservative majority of 345 in February 1974, followed by Labour majorities of 442 and just 38 in October '74 and 1979 respectively.
Then in 1983, Bury North was born and was ably represented by local (Bury Grammar and Oxford educated) Conservative Alistair Burt from 1983-1997 where even he couldn't survive the landslide and moved to Bedfordshire until standing down (having been cast out as one of 'the 21' by the then-PM) in 2019, but his heart appeared to remain in Bury, as he often referred back to it. Another BGS alumnus David Chaytor of Labour took over, having lost twice in Calder Valley, serving until 2010 when he stood down after being implicated in the Expenses Scandal, when David Nuttall gained it for the Conservatives having failed to do so in 2005. His majority was slashed 5 years later into 3 figures by Labour's James Frith who finished the job in 2017. He may not have had a local accent but after graduating from MMU had settled in Bury for several years before being elected and was a local councillor for Elton. As MP, a highly energetic campaigner who fought hard for two years, including appearing on national TV in the wake of the Bury FC affair, he lost after recounts in 2019 to another James - Daly, of the Conservatives, a local councillor for the Church ward. The marginality of the result is due in no small part to Frith's assiduousness as local MP, when other Labour 'red wall' seats with higher majorities going into the election, were gained by Conservatives by larger majorities than this one. Most of the time North was always the more conservative of the two Bury seats, perhaps owing to its more rural nature, but it was South that became safer, just about, with a majority of 402 votes. The reasons for both of these were probably due to the whole of Radcliffe being in Bury South. Keir Starmer after becoming Labour leader chose Bury as his 'first stop' on his 'Call Keir' campaign, speaking to voters online. Labour must win across Bury to have any chance of forming the next government, and it would be surprising if James Frith does not regain it, as he has been re-selected as the candidate. He will now have to win over the people of north Radcliffe too, or at the very least hope that any disaffected conservatives stay at home, but on the whole Bury North will continue to be a key marginal division for years to come, as there is something for everyone here, just like they would say at the market.
In July, James Frith easily regained his old seat, albeit with a decreased numerical vote and share (-1%) compared to last time, but with the largest percentage majority (15.2%) in the history of the seat, and second highest numerical majority (6,944). This was on, sadly, the lowest turnout ever for this constituency, at 58.5%, lower than even in 2001. In 1992, this had one of the highest turnouts nationwide at over 84% (though as you know by now it did not include part of Radcliffe back then).
Despite the closeness of the result last time, the expected inevitably of a Labour majority and therefore, Frith’s victory, probably caused a lot of people to stay at home, and much of James Daly’s vote unsurprisingly went to Reform which came a hefty third with 16%.
As always with both of the Bury seats, it is a bit of a misnomer - the entire town of Bury is in the North seat as it covers the northern half of the entire borough. Bury itself is forever associated with Black Pudding, and its town centre is home to a proudly-named 'World Famous' Market, which attracts visitors from across Greater Manchester and beyond. There is also the Fusiliers Museum and the heritage East Lancashire Railway for any Flying Scotsman enthusiasts, for more conventional transport, Bury is also the terminus of the original Metrolink Line to Altrincham. The arts/theatre venue The Met is based here at the Victorian-era Derby Hall, a notable performance there was one of the last concerts by the band Joy Division in 1980 where riots occurred. There are also two large Sixth Form colleges that serve students from across the borough and beyond. Lisa Nandy went to Holy Cross, and John Ashworth to its neighbour Bury College. There is also a prestigious private fee-paying Grammar School, which has a girls (alumna: Victoria Derbyshire) and boys division (alumni: several MPs, including Mr Peel). There are no free grammar schools across Bury, but the borough's better comprehensives are to be found in this constituency. Sadly the FA-cup winning (back in 1900) original local football team based at Gigg Lane was expelled from the football league in 2019 due to financial issues, despite the best efforts of local elected representatives and the community. Its resurrected club, formed by a merger of two spin-off clubs in 2023, is now in the ninth division, the North West Counties league.
Nonetheless, Bury is generally regarded as remaining relatively affluent when the textile industry of Manchester declined, due to much of the industry in Bury being based on paper making which continued for some time after. The borough as a whole often comes up in third place in Greater Manchester (after the traditionally regarded as 'affluent', Trafford and Stockport) when ranked across several demographic metrics such as deprivation, occupation, education, even recycling rate, and Brexit vote (at a marginal 54% leave, is the most 'remain' area after remain-voting Trafford, Stockport and Manchester). It is therefore pretty middling on a national level, which explains its marginality, and hopefully this will give you a flavour.
The town centre Bury East ward and a number of the neighbouring ones are reliably Labour - there is sporadic council housing throughout, often for older people, and some rows of terraced houses. Most of the ethnic minority population of Bury North is also concentrated in East ward and environs, though as a whole it is not as sizeable or well-known as that of neighbouring Bolton, Rochdale or Oldham. The neighbouring Moorside ward contains the notorious 'Dicky Bird' estate (so-called because the streets are named after bird species) - bisected by the M66 motorway whizzing right down the middle of it, a very troubled area. On the other hand the West ward is highly affluent, white and slightly older in age, and so safely conservative, while Elton to the northwest is suburban and marginal. The River Irwell flows through the area, through the towns and powered many of the mills that once stood. Some evidence of this has been preserved at Burrs Country Park, where a cotton mill once was.
Leave the town centre and it becomes more suburban and even rural with swathes of green belt land surrounding the next town, Tottington, which is reliably conservative, as are, going further north, small villages such as Greenmount and Summerseat, and finally Ramsbottom at the top of the borough. Ramsbottom was generally a Conservative heartland but has been more marginal in recent times, a few years ago both main parties were tied and had to draw straws (Labour winning, taking the council) and recently Labour have been comfortably gaining council seats there. It is a very pleasant, comfortable market town surrounded by green space and the hills of the West Pennines, permanent fixtures on the landscape being the aforementioned Peel Tower on Holcombe Hill, and in the distance the many wind turbines of nearby Scout Moor - the second largest onshore wind farm. The town is now increasingly attractive for commuting despite being isolated from the tram/train network (save for the ELR!), but the M66 motorway lies close by, taking you to Manchester in little over 30 minutes. It could be that Ramsbottom is attracting a younger family type of commuting demographic, possibly more of a public sector type, which may be leading to this shift away from the Tories. The complete opposite can be said of Radcliffe, whose North & Ainsworth ward is now appended to the edge of the new constituency, as the current one is currently undersized. The town has in recent years, in feeling 'left behind', swung strongly against Labour, voting for independent localist parties (known as Radcliffe First), and Conservatives too in the case of Radcliffe North & Ainsworth, and is likely to have voted strongly for Leave, leading the whole borough to tip into the Brexit column.
The BBC 'Vote2001' entry for the existing Bury South described Radcliffe as: "the town of Radcliffe, which has suffered from a declining industrial base and has been unable to attract the residential or retail developments which have assisted Bury itself." Unfortunately, not a lot seems to have changed almost a quarter of a century later, though attempts at regeneration have occurred including a new market hall to provide a local alternative to world-famous Bury, a new Lidl, and a large park and ride Metrolink station. Parts of the joining ward though do have some things in common with the existing Bury North, such as better-off and semi-rural parts such as the village of Ainsworth, surrounded by farmland, and the Bradley Fold area on the border with Bolton, a comfortable identikit suburban housing estate, but as the name suggests it will also bring in a north-west chunk of traditional Radcliffe, which will bring in a touch more areas of social housing, deprivation, and lower qualifications into the constituency. In previous times, such a boundary change would have brought in a block Labour vote of several thousand, but these are not normal times, and on paper this now makes Bury North slightly more conservative by a few hundred votes. At the last all-out council elections in 2022, in Radcliffe North & Ainsworth, two RF candidates came top, with a remarkable tie for third place between two conservative candidates. The lucky conservative winner was re-elected in 2023 by just 71 votes over RF, making this a rare (in GM) independent-conservative marginal ward. One can imagine this being a direct battle between the more conservative-inclined semi-rural areas of the ward and Radcliffe First votes coming in from the part of the town proper. Labour are a distant third in this ward. As for the Lib Dems in Bury North, they are nowhere to be seen locally, and as is the case in many tight Lab/Con marginals, massively lost their deposit at every election since 2015.
The marginal status of Bury North perhaps is representative of the seat, and even the country, as a whole, with few extremes of mass deprivation or affluence, an urban centre surrounded by semi-rural areas, and a Brexit vote close to the national average at around 53-54% for Leave. Overall proportion of graduates and professionals is slightly higher than the national average. This is not a Red Wall area at all (except for Radcliffe, whose part-inclusion does add a little 'red brick' to this ultra-marginal), and as such is more middle-England with a northern feel. The pairing of Bury and Radcliffe is not unprecedented either, the two towns were fully united in a constituency from 1950-1983 (plus Tottington but not Ramsbottom, which was in Rossendale). Remarkably that old seat also produced some historic close results, including a Conservative majority of 345 in February 1974, followed by Labour majorities of 442 and just 38 in October '74 and 1979 respectively.
Then in 1983, Bury North was born and was ably represented by local (Bury Grammar and Oxford educated) Conservative Alistair Burt from 1983-1997 where even he couldn't survive the landslide and moved to Bedfordshire until standing down (having been cast out as one of 'the 21' by the then-PM) in 2019, but his heart appeared to remain in Bury, as he often referred back to it. Another BGS alumnus David Chaytor of Labour took over, having lost twice in Calder Valley, serving until 2010 when he stood down after being implicated in the Expenses Scandal, when David Nuttall gained it for the Conservatives having failed to do so in 2005. His majority was slashed 5 years later into 3 figures by Labour's James Frith who finished the job in 2017. He may not have had a local accent but after graduating from MMU had settled in Bury for several years before being elected and was a local councillor for Elton. As MP, a highly energetic campaigner who fought hard for two years, including appearing on national TV in the wake of the Bury FC affair, he lost after recounts in 2019 to another James - Daly, of the Conservatives, a local councillor for the Church ward. The marginality of the result is due in no small part to Frith's assiduousness as local MP, when other Labour 'red wall' seats with higher majorities going into the election, were gained by Conservatives by larger majorities than this one. Most of the time North was always the more conservative of the two Bury seats, perhaps owing to its more rural nature, but it was South that became safer, just about, with a majority of 402 votes. The reasons for both of these were probably due to the whole of Radcliffe being in Bury South. Keir Starmer after becoming Labour leader chose Bury as his 'first stop' on his 'Call Keir' campaign, speaking to voters online. Labour must win across Bury to have any chance of forming the next government, and it would be surprising if James Frith does not regain it, as he has been re-selected as the candidate. He will now have to win over the people of north Radcliffe too, or at the very least hope that any disaffected conservatives stay at home, but on the whole Bury North will continue to be a key marginal division for years to come, as there is something for everyone here, just like they would say at the market.
In July, James Frith easily regained his old seat, albeit with a decreased numerical vote and share (-1%) compared to last time, but with the largest percentage majority (15.2%) in the history of the seat, and second highest numerical majority (6,944). This was on, sadly, the lowest turnout ever for this constituency, at 58.5%, lower than even in 2001. In 1992, this had one of the highest turnouts nationwide at over 84% (though as you know by now it did not include part of Radcliffe back then).
Despite the closeness of the result last time, the expected inevitably of a Labour majority and therefore, Frith’s victory, probably caused a lot of people to stay at home, and much of James Daly’s vote unsurprisingly went to Reform which came a hefty third with 16%.
