Post by Robert Waller on Aug 14, 2023 20:59:11 GMT
Dartford is the constituency in Kent closest to the boundary with Greater London, and its social and economic characteristics are most similar to those of parts of the capital – and according to the latest census in some ways becoming more so. The seat is currently nearly coterminous with that of the borough of Dartford, which has been revealed in the first results of the 2021 census to be released to have the second fastest rate of population growth of any local authority in Britain in the previous 10 years: from around 97,400 to 118,600, which is an increase of 20%. Only Tower Hamlets grew by a higher percentage. What is more, Dartford was the site of perhaps the most spectacular growth in the number of Black residents, from 3,578 in 2011 to 12,282 in 2021, from 3.5% to 10% of the total.
Despite (or maybe because of?) its proximity to London, Dartford’s electoral patterns have generally changed to go in a different direction in recent decades. For a long time after the Second World War Dartford could be described as a Labour-inclined marginal. They held it continuously from 1945 to 1970, throughout the three Conservative national victories of the 1950s. Admittedly up to 1955 the division included Erith and Crayford, but not in 1959, which actually generated the largest Tory margin of that decade. Since then the lines have remained similar, and Dartford has been a bellwether, electing the winning party in the years that government changed: 1970, February 1974, 1979, 1997 and 2010. However that is not to say that its results have remained typical. In 2010 the Conservative majority was 21%, in an election when they were nationally ahead by 7%. By December 2019 their lead was 35% (numerically over 19,000) and thus meant Dartford ranked as their 244th most vulnerable seat, which cannot by any measure be classed as marginal.
How do we account for this deviation in the 2010s from the norm in a rightward direction - especially given the change in the ethnic make-up mentioned above? One reason must be to do with attitudes towards Europe. Like much of Kent, Dartford was keen on severing links with the Continent just across the way. In the 2016 referendum we know his Dartford borough and constituency voted: 63.98% to leave, only 36.02% to remain. UKIP had taken 20% of the vote and a strong third place in the 2015 general election. Clearly the ‘Boris promise’ to ‘get Brexit done’ was a key factor in 2019. Secondly, while the rise in Black residents may have accounted for over 8,000 of the population growth (net) a much larger number were new white Dartforders, overwhelmingly in owner occupied private housing estates, and quite possibly seizing the opportunity not to live in London. As the local media outlet Kent Live pointed out in December 2022, “With more people turning their back to London, many move to Dartford due to the current cost-of-living crisis with the capital's property asking prices continuing to climb. Roger Field lives in Crayford but visits Dartford regularly. The 57-year-old said: “It’s the cheap prices and the fact that we can still use our Oyster cards to get to London. So there’s a good commute into London and cheaper property prices.” Yes, many of the new Black residents have come from Thamesmead, but that is very untypical of (indeed not entirely in) the nearest borough within London to Dartford, which is Bexley – itself known for strengthening loyalty to the Conservatives over the past decade or so.
It should also be remembered that the borough includes not only Dartford town, which has an estimated population of 75,000 in 2022, but also Swanscombe further down the Thames estuary, and also a considerable hinterland including the Darent Valley and running up into the North Downs. Swanscombe is historically one if the stronger Labour areas (solidly so in Kent county council elections from 1973 to 2005, for example), though recently won mainly by Residents Association candidates. But the southern, ‘inland’ parts of the seat have always been strongly Conservative. In the most recent Dartford borough elections in May 2023 the rural wards elected Tories: in Wilmington, Sutton at-Hone & Hawley by around two to one against Labour, at Lowfield, New Barn & Southfleet by nearly four to one, at Joyden’s Wood by over five to one.
Dartford itself is also large enough to have considerable internal variation. In May 2023 Labour topped the poll with twice the Tory vote in Temple Hill in the north east of the town, one of the two main centres of Black residence, and gained one from the Conservatives in Princes, but in Newtown ward lost one of two seats tithe Greens, and Stone House saw divided representation with the Conservatives in both 2019 and 2023 – no progress made. Interestingly, so did a new ward, Ebbsfleet – created by some of the recent housing developments between the massive Bluewater shipping centre and Ebbsfleet International (high speed) station and as yet low in electorate and turnout. But the Conservatives won Bridge, the riverside ward over which the Dartford M25 crossing passes, also an area of extensive new construction, as well as their traditional stronghold in the town, and also Heath, which is strongly middle class and owner occupied. Heath is in south west Dartford and abuts the Bexley boundary, and the Tories won the other two wards which do so as well, West Hill and Burnham. They also took Stone Castle between Dartford and Swanscombe and even the Dartford town centre ward, appropriately named Town, which also had a large Black African minority in 2021 – perhaps a warning that too much should not be read into the political effects of the changes in ethnicity within Dartford. In fact, as Labour does, the Conservatives have a councillor of African heritage, Clement Quaquemy of Bridge ward. committeedmz.dartford.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=WARD&VW=LIST&PIC=0
Perhaps the new neighbourhoods around the raging consumerism of Bluewater seem to represent a more politically influential representation of the future of the Dartford constituency.
Dartford’s population growth has, of course, meant that it needs to lose electors in the current boundary review. The Commission has removed about 6,000 in the more rural section (Wilmington and Sutton at-Hone & Hawley wards) to Sevenoaks, which has a very compatible political tone, and also another 4,842 in Hartley & Hodsoll Street, the one anomalous ward not in Dartford borough - which actually goes into the new Tonbridge seat, despite being in Sevenoaks local authority. In the final report, due to popular demand the Commission reversed their original decision to transfer Darenth ward (2,000 voters) to Sevenoaks as well. However these boundary changes in themselves won’t make much of a decisive dent in that 19,000 majority. This was Pete Whitehead’s notional result, calculated before the return of Darenth ward (Tory but marginally, and small) to Dartford:
2019 Notional result
"A fair dent.." (PW)
(See below for the official Rallings & Thrasher figures for the final new boundaries)
Some may have predicted that the changing ethnic character may make the somewhat shrunken Dartford more vulnerable to Labour revival, but there has been no evidence so far to support this theory. In the same year as the 2021 census, and less than two months after Census day, they were still over 6,000 votes behind in the Dartford constituency electoral divisions within the Kent County Council area in the May elections, and that on a turnout if less than half that of a general election. Labour won only one of those contests, Dartford North East, and that by just over 100 votes. The Conservatives won all the others in Dartford itself, as well as the rural wards, and the Residents took Swanscombe as usual.
In the May 2023 Dartford borough council elections, unlike those on that day in much of the country, the Conservatives suffered no net losses at all, returning 29 seats compared with Labour’s 11 (plus one) and one each for the Greens, a gain, and Swanscombe & Greenhithe Residents. Across the council area, not quite the constituency of course, the Tories still got 56% of the vote to Labour’s 35% (and both parties did contest every seat).
Perhaps the band including Dartford’s two most famous sons may provide some appropriate words, as despite the history of the seat, at present the Labour party still “can’t get no satisfaction”. You can’t always get what you want, however hard you knock.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 13.2% 491/575
Owner occupied 67.1% 260/575
Private rented 18.9% 250/575
Social rented 14.0% 343/575
White 73.3% 448/575
Black 11.0% 49/575
Asian 10.1 % 152/575
Managerial & professional 35.2% 215/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1% 337/575
Degree level 32.9% 266/575
No qualifications 16.1% 367/575
Students 5.7% 267/575
General Election 2019: Dartford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gareth Johnson 34,006 62.9 +5.3
Labour Sacha Gosine 14,846 27.5 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Kyle Marsh 3,736 6.9 +4.3
Green Mark Lindop 1,435 2.7 +1.2
C Majority 19,160 35.4 +11.0
2019 electorate 82,209
Turnout 54,023 65.7 -4.1
Conservative hold
Swing 5.6 Lab to C
New Boundaries
The new Dartford seat will consist of
86.8% of Dartford
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_303_Dartford_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
Despite (or maybe because of?) its proximity to London, Dartford’s electoral patterns have generally changed to go in a different direction in recent decades. For a long time after the Second World War Dartford could be described as a Labour-inclined marginal. They held it continuously from 1945 to 1970, throughout the three Conservative national victories of the 1950s. Admittedly up to 1955 the division included Erith and Crayford, but not in 1959, which actually generated the largest Tory margin of that decade. Since then the lines have remained similar, and Dartford has been a bellwether, electing the winning party in the years that government changed: 1970, February 1974, 1979, 1997 and 2010. However that is not to say that its results have remained typical. In 2010 the Conservative majority was 21%, in an election when they were nationally ahead by 7%. By December 2019 their lead was 35% (numerically over 19,000) and thus meant Dartford ranked as their 244th most vulnerable seat, which cannot by any measure be classed as marginal.
How do we account for this deviation in the 2010s from the norm in a rightward direction - especially given the change in the ethnic make-up mentioned above? One reason must be to do with attitudes towards Europe. Like much of Kent, Dartford was keen on severing links with the Continent just across the way. In the 2016 referendum we know his Dartford borough and constituency voted: 63.98% to leave, only 36.02% to remain. UKIP had taken 20% of the vote and a strong third place in the 2015 general election. Clearly the ‘Boris promise’ to ‘get Brexit done’ was a key factor in 2019. Secondly, while the rise in Black residents may have accounted for over 8,000 of the population growth (net) a much larger number were new white Dartforders, overwhelmingly in owner occupied private housing estates, and quite possibly seizing the opportunity not to live in London. As the local media outlet Kent Live pointed out in December 2022, “With more people turning their back to London, many move to Dartford due to the current cost-of-living crisis with the capital's property asking prices continuing to climb. Roger Field lives in Crayford but visits Dartford regularly. The 57-year-old said: “It’s the cheap prices and the fact that we can still use our Oyster cards to get to London. So there’s a good commute into London and cheaper property prices.” Yes, many of the new Black residents have come from Thamesmead, but that is very untypical of (indeed not entirely in) the nearest borough within London to Dartford, which is Bexley – itself known for strengthening loyalty to the Conservatives over the past decade or so.
It should also be remembered that the borough includes not only Dartford town, which has an estimated population of 75,000 in 2022, but also Swanscombe further down the Thames estuary, and also a considerable hinterland including the Darent Valley and running up into the North Downs. Swanscombe is historically one if the stronger Labour areas (solidly so in Kent county council elections from 1973 to 2005, for example), though recently won mainly by Residents Association candidates. But the southern, ‘inland’ parts of the seat have always been strongly Conservative. In the most recent Dartford borough elections in May 2023 the rural wards elected Tories: in Wilmington, Sutton at-Hone & Hawley by around two to one against Labour, at Lowfield, New Barn & Southfleet by nearly four to one, at Joyden’s Wood by over five to one.
Dartford itself is also large enough to have considerable internal variation. In May 2023 Labour topped the poll with twice the Tory vote in Temple Hill in the north east of the town, one of the two main centres of Black residence, and gained one from the Conservatives in Princes, but in Newtown ward lost one of two seats tithe Greens, and Stone House saw divided representation with the Conservatives in both 2019 and 2023 – no progress made. Interestingly, so did a new ward, Ebbsfleet – created by some of the recent housing developments between the massive Bluewater shipping centre and Ebbsfleet International (high speed) station and as yet low in electorate and turnout. But the Conservatives won Bridge, the riverside ward over which the Dartford M25 crossing passes, also an area of extensive new construction, as well as their traditional stronghold in the town, and also Heath, which is strongly middle class and owner occupied. Heath is in south west Dartford and abuts the Bexley boundary, and the Tories won the other two wards which do so as well, West Hill and Burnham. They also took Stone Castle between Dartford and Swanscombe and even the Dartford town centre ward, appropriately named Town, which also had a large Black African minority in 2021 – perhaps a warning that too much should not be read into the political effects of the changes in ethnicity within Dartford. In fact, as Labour does, the Conservatives have a councillor of African heritage, Clement Quaquemy of Bridge ward. committeedmz.dartford.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=WARD&VW=LIST&PIC=0
Perhaps the new neighbourhoods around the raging consumerism of Bluewater seem to represent a more politically influential representation of the future of the Dartford constituency.
Dartford’s population growth has, of course, meant that it needs to lose electors in the current boundary review. The Commission has removed about 6,000 in the more rural section (Wilmington and Sutton at-Hone & Hawley wards) to Sevenoaks, which has a very compatible political tone, and also another 4,842 in Hartley & Hodsoll Street, the one anomalous ward not in Dartford borough - which actually goes into the new Tonbridge seat, despite being in Sevenoaks local authority. In the final report, due to popular demand the Commission reversed their original decision to transfer Darenth ward (2,000 voters) to Sevenoaks as well. However these boundary changes in themselves won’t make much of a decisive dent in that 19,000 majority. This was Pete Whitehead’s notional result, calculated before the return of Darenth ward (Tory but marginally, and small) to Dartford:
2019 Notional result
| Con | 25829 | 60.6% |
| Lab | 12677 | 29.7% |
| LD | 2950 | 6.9% |
| Grn | 1185 | 2.8% |
| Majority | 13152 | 30.8% |
"A fair dent.." (PW)
(See below for the official Rallings & Thrasher figures for the final new boundaries)
Some may have predicted that the changing ethnic character may make the somewhat shrunken Dartford more vulnerable to Labour revival, but there has been no evidence so far to support this theory. In the same year as the 2021 census, and less than two months after Census day, they were still over 6,000 votes behind in the Dartford constituency electoral divisions within the Kent County Council area in the May elections, and that on a turnout if less than half that of a general election. Labour won only one of those contests, Dartford North East, and that by just over 100 votes. The Conservatives won all the others in Dartford itself, as well as the rural wards, and the Residents took Swanscombe as usual.
In the May 2023 Dartford borough council elections, unlike those on that day in much of the country, the Conservatives suffered no net losses at all, returning 29 seats compared with Labour’s 11 (plus one) and one each for the Greens, a gain, and Swanscombe & Greenhithe Residents. Across the council area, not quite the constituency of course, the Tories still got 56% of the vote to Labour’s 35% (and both parties did contest every seat).
Perhaps the band including Dartford’s two most famous sons may provide some appropriate words, as despite the history of the seat, at present the Labour party still “can’t get no satisfaction”. You can’t always get what you want, however hard you knock.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 13.2% 491/575
Owner occupied 67.1% 260/575
Private rented 18.9% 250/575
Social rented 14.0% 343/575
White 73.3% 448/575
Black 11.0% 49/575
Asian 10.1 % 152/575
Managerial & professional 35.2% 215/575
Routine & Semi-routine 22.1% 337/575
Degree level 32.9% 266/575
No qualifications 16.1% 367/575
Students 5.7% 267/575
General Election 2019: Dartford
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Gareth Johnson 34,006 62.9 +5.3
Labour Sacha Gosine 14,846 27.5 -5.7
Liberal Democrats Kyle Marsh 3,736 6.9 +4.3
Green Mark Lindop 1,435 2.7 +1.2
C Majority 19,160 35.4 +11.0
2019 electorate 82,209
Turnout 54,023 65.7 -4.1
Conservative hold
Swing 5.6 Lab to C
New Boundaries
The new Dartford seat will consist of
86.8% of Dartford
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_303_Dartford_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional result on new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 28413 | 61.1% |
| Lab | 13709 | 29.5% |
| LD | 3251 | 7.0% |
| Grn | 1115 | 2.4% |
| Majority | 14704 | 30.8% |
